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Mining Companies / Stocks
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TOPIC: Argonaut Gold
#2842
Argonaut Gold 2 Years, 6 Months ago Karma: 30
http://www.argonautgoldinc.com/s/Home.asp

Here's one for you guys to look at. In production and significant production increases in Q3 and moving forward. Seems to be well managed and picking up some steam. Might be a good time to jump in on the warrants?

The warrants are for 3 years from the date of initial listing, which was December 29, 2009.

They are being publically traded on the TSX as AR.WT. There are approximately 27 million warrants that exists as part of the initial private placement deal which was for one share and half a warrant at C$4.50


Warrants currently trading just below 1.00, expire Dec-2012
Common SP is moving around 4.00


I leave it to you for a deeper analysis!
navderek
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#2878
Re: Argonaut Gold 2 Years, 6 Months ago Karma: 30
I looked into this one a little more and there is a huge spread between the bid / ask price:

AR.WT.TO (ARGONAUT GOLD LTD. WTS)
Date: 11/18/2010
Time: 09:46:41 EDT
QUOTE: Bid: 0.74 | Ask: 1.85 | Last Trade: 0.95

So does this mean I would have to pay closer to 1.85 to purchase these warrants??
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#2879
Re: Argonaut Gold 2 Years, 6 Months ago Karma: 30
I just answered my own question, yes it does...so this is a TERRIBLE deal!
The warrants would have to go up by almost 100% just to break even. Why is there such a large spread on this one??
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#2882
Re: Argonaut Gold 2 Years, 6 Months ago Karma: 193
Navderek, you have to realize that most of the people trading warrants are VERY familiar with how warrants leverage the share price. Thus, when the market is strong, warrants will tend to be the most-fully valued "equities" you can buy.

Secondly, compared to the shares, all warrants are "thinly traded" since there will generally be at least 5 times as many shares as warrants AND many investors never touch these investments. Because of that, you will see much wider spreads.

This leaves you with 3 strategies in your warrant-buying:

1) FORGET ABOUT THEM until there is a severe pull-back in the market - when all that leverage unwinds, and their price is much more attractive (of course, you might have to wait quite a while).

2) Place a "good until canceled" order at how much you're WILLING to pay, and wait to see if you get lucky and get a fill.

3) Pay the "market price" for the warrants (if you're feeling really bullish). You may look at the warrants at the CURRENT share price and conclude they are "expensive". However, if you add 20% to the SHARE PRICE, THEN how expensive would the warrants look? Ask yourself how many "good days" would it take for the s.p. to move up 20%. Then ask yourself AGAIN: are these warrants "expensive"? Sometimes you're still going to answer "yes", but a lot of these warrants suddenly look quite "reasonable" when you extrapolate a bit.
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#3002
Re: Argonaut Gold 2 Years, 6 Months ago Karma: 30
I lucked out and grabbed some warrants today @ 1.20
I think the Korean tensions had something to do with it and other market jitters, I saw the ask price go down to 1.00 at one point. A great buy opportunity!
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#3009
Re: Argonaut Gold 2 Years, 6 Months ago Karma: 193
OK, Navderek.

Since you've decided to "play" the warrants, you might want to think about "swing trading" them.

In other words, don't look for the big gains. If you can get a quick 20 - 30%, take it - and then watch for the next dip.

Or sell half, and look to sell the other half higher...
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#3023
Re: Argonaut Gold 2 Years, 6 Months ago Karma: 30
Thanks Jeff, I will keep that in mind. I don't expect too much movement since these warrants are still "young" but within the next year I will keep a close eye.
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#3036
Re: Argonaut Gold 2 Years, 6 Months ago Karma: 193
Navderek, it's true that the movements are more 'violent' with respect to warrants that are close to expiry. However, even the long-life warrants have PLENTY of volatility in them.

They "leverage" the share price at any point in their life-span, so in percentage terms you will almost always see your warrants move more "quickly" than shares.
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#4402
Re: Argonaut Gold 2 Years, 4 Months ago Karma: 30
Interesting development...not sure how to look at this...

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Dec. 23, 2010) - Pursuant to its previously announced business combination with Pediment Gold Corp. (TSX:PEZ)(OTCBB:PEZGF), ("Pediment"), Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) ("Argonaut" or the "Company") has begun mailing the meeting materials to Argonaut shareholders seeking support for the issuance of shares of Argonaut necessary to complete its business combination with Pediment.

Pediment has also began mailing meeting materials to its shareholders.

On October 18, 2010, Argonaut entered into a binding agreement to complete a business combination (the "Transaction") with Pediment. The combined entity will focus on generating value for its shareholders by increasing production, bringing new and existing projects into production, expanding the resource base, and growing cash flow.

Pursuant to the terms of the Agreement, all of the Pediment common shares (the "Pediment Common Shares") issued and outstanding immediately prior to consummation of the business combination shall become exchangeable into the common stock of Argonaut on the basis of 0.625 of a common share of Argonaut for each one (1) Pediment Common Share. Based on the closing price of Argonaut on the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") on October 18, 2010, the exchange ratio implies an offer price of C$2.56 per Pediment common share and values Pediment's equity at approximately C$137.1 million on a fully diluted in-the-money basis.

Rescheduled Mailing

Pediment and Argonaut delayed the planned mailing to investigate the proposed amendments to the local environmental laws in the State of Baja California Sur, Mexico the ("BCS") which, if implemented, could adversely affect the ability to secure a building licence for the development of its San Antonio Project as currently envisioned.

Based on the information received to date, the parties understand that the legislation, as originally proposed, has not been approved by the Governor and the Governor has stated publicly that it will not be approved in its current form. The current sitting of the BCS legislature has now ended. The legislature is not expected to resume sitting until March 2011, at which time new members and, shortly thereafter, a new Governor will be sworn in, following elections. There can be no certainty with respect to future legislative action, however, Pediment and Argonaut have held meetings with a variety of local stakeholders and legislators and believe there is broad opposition to the proposed legislation and support for the San Antonio Project.

Pediment and Argonaut have, given the results of these investigations to date, determined to proceed with their proposed business combination.

Directors' Recommendation

Directors of both companies have carefully considered the proposed business combination and unanimously recommend that their respective shareholders vote in favour of the business combination. Each Director of the Argonaut Gold Board and Pediment Board intend to vote all their respective shares in favour of the business combination.

Argonaut -- Pediment Circular Mailing

The Pediment Circular will be mailed to Pediment shareholders on December 23, 2010 and subsequently be posted on SEDAR.

The Argonaut Circular will be mailed to Argonaut shareholders on December 24, 2010 and subsequently be posted on SEDAR.

Shareholders will receive the meeting documents through the mail and should expect to receive the documents in late December or early January.

Pediment Shareholder Information Line

If Pediment shareholders have questions about the business combination, they should contact Kingsdale at 1-866-581-1479 or via email at contactus@kingsdaleshareholder.com.

Argonaut Shareholder

If Argonaut shareholders have questions about the business combination, they should contact Nichole Cowles, Investor Relations Manager at 1-775-240-4172 or via email at nichole.cowles@argonautgoldinc.com.

About Argonaut

Argonaut is a Canadian gold company engaged in exploration, mine development and production activities. Its primary assets being the production-stage El Castillo Project and the exploration-stage La Fortuna Project, both located in the State of Durango, Mexico. Argonaut is a new venture created by former executive management team members of Meridian Gold Inc.

Creating the Next Quality Mid-Tier Gold Producer in the Americas.

About Pediment Gold Corp.

Pediment Gold Corp. is a junior mining company with a focus on the exploration and development of low-cost gold assets in Mexico. With an experienced team of geologists, financiers and miners, in management and on the board, the company is dedicated to advancing its projects. To date, the company established a Measured and Indicated Resource of 1.22 million oz gold and an Inferred Resource of 28,449 oz of gold at San Antonio in Baja Sur (NI 43-101 compliant, AMEC, Edward Orbock III, June 2010). Pediment also outlined its initial gold resource at the past producing La Colorada gold mine in Sonora with 605,000 oz of gold in the Measured and Indicated category and 582,000 oz of gold in the Inferred category (NI 43-101 compliant, Giroux 2009). For further information about Pediment please see the Annual Report of Pediment on Form 20-F dated December 21, 2009 in relation to the year ended September 30, 2009."

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-looking Statements

This news release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause results to differ materially from management's current expectations. Actual results may differ materially due to a number of factors. Except as required by law, Argonaut Gold Inc. assumes no obligation to update the forward-looking information contained in this news release.

For more information, please contact
Argonaut Gold Inc.
Nichole Cowles
Investor Relations Manager
(775) 284-4422 x 101
nichole.cowles@argonautgoldinc.com
www.argonautgoldinc.com
navderek
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#4415
Re: Argonaut Gold 2 Years, 4 Months ago Karma: 193
Navderek, one of the few pieces of advice I originally heard from "mainstream" investment analysts - yet still think it is valid - is to avoid getting involved in take-over dramas.

I've CONSIDERED hanging onto companies which have been bought-out - wondering/hoping that the new combination would produce a "total which is greater than the sum of the parts".

There are two reasons why I've generally acceded to conventional wisdom. First, once a deal is announced, if it's not a totally "hostile" offer, then usually the take-over candidate is stuck at that price level until the deal is concluded, meaning no real short-term opportunity to increase profits.

For the acquirer, the share price usually FALLS, due to the debt/dilution required to complete the take-out. Then AFTER the deal is concluded, unless the new combination is especially accretive, then the new entity simply treads water for a while - as it assimilates the new assets into its own operations.

These are the sort of "sell on news" announcements which led to that becoming a market cliche.

What you will generally find is that the time it takes to watch and evaluate the various moves of the "dance partners" could usually be utilized more effectively in looking for a NEW company in which to invest.
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