There was another good piece of analysis put out by Avery Goodman, the same writer I recently referred to in my piece on Morgan Stanley's latest precious metals scam.

He points out that when you strip out (real) inflation AND falling house prices from the calculation of the March retail sales figure that it works out to U.S. retail sales PLUMMETING downward by 13% in real dollars. Put another way, in March U.S. consumers were purchasing roughly 13% less goods than 1 year ago - while the government claims that the last year was the BEST year of this "three year recovery".



March Retail Sales: A Decline At An Annualized Rate Of 13.2%

seekingalpha.com/article/501441-march-re...ualized-rate-of-13-2

"Americans splurged on a wide range of goods and services for the third straight month, suggesting the U.S. economy grew somewhat faster than expected in the first quarter."

So reads the headline at Dow Jones' Marketwatch. The article goes on to say that the Commerce Department has released new retail sales numbers for March, showing retail sales up by 0.8% for the month. If this were true, it would be great news. Unfortunately, retail sales for March, in real terms, were down significantly, after subtracting out inflation.

The mainstream business media doesn't appear to do much work to determine whether or not they are shoveling BS down our throats. The most recent retail sales figures are yet another example of that problem. On the surface, things look rosy. But, dig a little deeper, and all the warts appear.

Retail sales numbers report gross sales in dollar amounts, not in terms of the number of goods received. In order to know whether or not people are actually buying more, however, you have to consider whether the higher number represents greater consumption propensity, or just the after-effects of inflation.

Inflation can be measured in many ways, including the CPI issued by the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics (BLS). According to the BLS, the raw consumer price inflation (CPI) rate for March over February was 0.8%, and the seasonally adjusted rate was 0.3%. By subtracting this from the retail sales numbers disseminated by the Commerce Department, we conclude that there was either no retail sales increase or a much lower 0.5% increase.

But the BLS CPI is a very flawed measure in other ways. The agency has been widely criticized for including highly subjective statistical models in its CPI calculation. It creates, for example, artificial price reduction by using so-called "hedonic" adjustment and product substitution theory. This results in a lower reported inflation rate. A discussion of this problem can be found at shadowstats.com.

More important, however, is that the BLS version of CPI also includes housing prices. Home prices continue to fall rapidly even as most other prices rise sharply. It would be better to find an index restricted to retail sales only. Thankfully, just such an index exists. It is known as the "everyday price index" (EPI), and is published by the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER).

The EPI reflects the price of goods and services people tend to buy frequently, such as food, utilities and fuel. According to AIER, the EPI inflation rate ran at 1.9% in March. That means that, in reality, rather than increasing, the sale of retail goods decreased by an annualized rate of 13.2% in March, 2012.

That, to say the least, is terrible news. The numbers show that we have a lot of inflation in the midst of a declining economy. In an earlier era, that was not known as a retail sales gain. Back in the 1970s, it was known as "stagflation." In spite of the rosy headlines, the latest numbers are actually telling we are in the midst of rather severe stagflation. Investors who choose to ignore that reality by accepting the rosy view presented by mainstream media will end up badly burned.

Jeff,

Gotta love our press. It's great for getting information.

Thank You
Earl


Strong retail sales ease growth worries

Reuters – 2 hours 21 minutes ago
finance.yahoo.com/news/strong-retail-sal...rowth-210331032.html

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Americans shrugged off high gasoline prices in March and spent more strongly than expected, suggesting economic growth in the first quarter was probably not as weak as many had feared.

Retail sales increased 0.8 percent, the Commerce Department said on Monday, after rising 1.0 percent in February.

Last month's gains handily beat economists' expectations for only a 0.3 percent rise and indicated sturdy consumer spending in the first three months of 2012. Consumer spending accounts for more than two third of U.S. economic activity.

"Warm weather can explain some of the increase, but it is apparent that households are feeling more confident and are more willing to open their pocketbooks, despite higher gasoline prices," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh.

Analysts are optimistic that the economy grew at an annual pace of at least 2.5 percent in the January-March period, which would be a far more than the sub-2 percent rate many had expected earlier in the quarter.

The economy grew at a 3.0 percent rate in the fourth quarter. But the rising optimism over the economy was tempered by a report showing manufacturing in New York state slowed sharply this month as shipments of goods weakened.

Factories, however, hired more workers and received higher prices for their goods, giving the report a mixed tone.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank said on Monday its "Empire State" manufacturing activity index fell in April to 6.56, the lowest reading in five months, from 20.21 in March.

Another report showed confidence among homebuilders slipped in April for the first time in seven months amid expectations of a slower sales pace in the next six months.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended higher on the retail sales report. U.S. Treasury debt prices were little changed, but the dollar fell against a basket of currencies.

BROAD-BASED SALES GAINS

The rise in sales last month was broad-based, even though Americans paid 27 cents more per gallon of gasoline than they did the prior month.

So far, Americans appear to be taking rising gasoline prices in stride, thanks to a mild winter that has pushed down natural gas prices and cut household heating bills.

For now, economists said the signs of strength in consumer spending reduced the chances of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve through bond purchases, or quantitative easing, even though job growth slowed in March.

The U.S. central bank meets next week and is not expected to make any major policy announcement.

"The sales data indicates, at the moment, that no additional quantitative easing is needed. It's simply just not necessary," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York.

Motor vehicle sales extended the prior month's gains. However, the 0.9 percent rise in sales was at odds with data from dealers showing a decline in unit sales.

Excluding autos, retail sales climbed 0.8 percent last month after advancing 0.9 percent in February.

Elsewhere, high gasoline prices pushed up receipts at service stations. There were sturdy increases in the sales of clothing, furniture, building materials and garden equipment, restaurants and bars, electronics and appliances.

Excluding autos and gasoline, sales advanced 0.7 percent in March, adding to the prior month's 0.5 percent gain.

A second report from the Commerce Department showed business inventories increased 0.6 percent to a record $1.58 trillion as auto dealers restocked to meet increased demand for motor vehicles from consumers.

Business sales increased 0.7 percent to a record $1.24 trillion in February, after advancing 0.4 percent the prior month. At February's sales pace it will take 1.28 months for businesses to clear shelves, unchanged from January.

(Additional reporting by Leah Schnurr in New York; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Thanks for providing the media's "contrast" with reality Earl!

We've already (partially) gone through the latest lies of the U.S. propaganda machine regarding retail sales - a very IMPORTANT lie for a "consumer economy".

As we saw with the Goodman article, in the real world U.S. consumers are presently buying 13% LESS goods than one year ago. So much for "sales growth". We saw SOME of Bloomberg's lies in Earl's post - but they were just getting warmed up!

Check out some of the lines from today's batch of bullshit:

...Other merchants, including specialty retailer Mattress Firm Holding Corp. (MFRM), also plan to add jobs this year. The Houston-based company says it’s looking for 200 workers to beef up its sales and corporate staffs as it expands. The response of such companies is easing concerns about an April 6 U.S. jobs report that showed retail employment declined by about 34,000 in March from the previous month.

So let me analyze this lying with numbers point-by-point.

First of all note that the OFFICIAL jobs report is, itself, the single biggest lie in the U.S. economy. So if the report showed 34,000 retail sector jobs being lost, likely the REAL number was at least TWO or THREE times that size. But let's put aside that aspect of the lying.

Bloomberg is attempting to convince us that the FIRST lie was just an ANOMALY (lol!) by (as usual) engaging in more lying. In this case through the use of ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE.

I have mentioned before that this is the WEAKEST form of evidence. There are over 300 MILLION people in the U.S. If you describe what FOUR of those people are doing does that make a "pattern" or "trend"??? Lol!!! Of course not.

This makes lying with anecdotal evidence one of THE favorite techniques of the propagandists, because anecdotes REALLY impress sheep (LOL!!!), AND there are ALWAYS "exceptions to the rule" to be found in any situation.

So we have the liars of Bloomberg telling us NOT to believe their own official statistic - which is at least a "big picture" lie - and we're supposed to believe their anecdotal evidence instead. With more than 100,000 retail sector employers in the U.S., telling us that 3 or 4 (small) companies plan to add workers tells us NOTHING.

Note what I also tell people: with compulsive liars the lies "compound" each other - and piggyback each other. Observe the following:

...Sales Creates Hiring

Growth in sales tends to create hiring, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist in New York at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. “The strength in first-quarter retail spending means we should see a meaningful snapback in retail hiring this quarter.”

Note that Bloomberg even TITLES particular lies when it REALLY wants to get the sheep to pay attention.



YES, "sales creates hiring". So when we see (in the real world) that U.S. retailers are selling 13% LESS GOODS than one year ago, what numbers are we going to believe: the big-picture number showing retail employment PLUMMETING lower, OR Bloomberg's "don't worry, be happy" anecdotes talking about a few HUNDRED workers being hired...?





"Retailers Adding Workers Makes U.S. March Decline a Blip"

www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-17/retail...-decline-a-blip.html

Applicants weren’t deterred by the heavy rain that fell in San Francisco when local Jamba Inc. (JMBA) outlets opened their doors for the smoothie chain’s first nationwide summer job fair on March 27.

“There were many stores that were packed,” said Kathy Wright, Jamba’s vice president of human resources, who made the Bay Area rounds that day. “We were interviewing under tents out in the rain. Even with the bad weather we had great people.” The Emeryville, California-based retailer is opening new stores and looking to fill 2,500 positions across the country.

Other merchants, including specialty retailer Mattress Firm Holding Corp. (MFRM), also plan to add jobs this year. The Houston-based company says it’s looking for 200 workers to beef up its sales and corporate staffs as it expands. The response of such companies is easing concerns about an April 6 U.S. jobs report that showed retail employment declined by about 34,000 in March from the previous month.

As shoppers spent money on goods ranging from electronics to clothing and furniture, retail sales rose last month by 0.8 percent, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. The increase was almost three times higher than forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey. Receipts at chain stores climbed 4.1 percent from a year earlier, the International Council of Shopping Centers reported.
Sales Creates Hiring

Growth in sales tends to create hiring, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist in New York at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. “The strength in first-quarter retail spending means we should see a meaningful snapback in retail hiring this quarter.”

Stores “will be adding jobs this year, not unlike what we saw on a year-over-year basis last year,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation, a Washington- based trade group. “There are concerns out there, but on the other hand there’s momentum in hiring and in spending.”

That momentum sometimes has been slow and uneven. Last month’s drop in retail payrolls was the biggest decline since October 2009, and merchants have regained only a third of jobs lost in 2008 and 2009, according to the Kronos Retail Labor Index, a measure of the health of the sector’s labor market prepared by Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.

Retailers have been adding about 35,000 employees a month, on average, for the past six months. While that’s below the pre- recession average of 55,000 in 2006 and 2007, it’s “sufficient to see a slow rise in retail employment,” said Chris Varvares, senior managing director of Macroeconomic Advisers in St. Louis, Missouri. “The retail sector over the last three months has trended higher at a very solid pace.”
One in Four Americans

The numbers are important because retailers employ about one in four Americans, according to their trade group. Retail sales accounted for 50 percent of consumer spending in 2011, Commerce Department data show.

Investors have driven up their shares as spending increases. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Retailing Index, which includes Macy’s Inc. (M) and Gap Inc., has gained 17 percent this year through April 16 compared with 8.9 percent for the broader S&P 500.

Varvares and other economists call the March payroll report an anomaly caused by the mild winter. Balmy weather in much of the country might have coaxed shoppers out in January and February, leading merchants to add or retain workers in those months at the expense of March hiring.
Low-Employment Sectors

Still, the first-quarter sales rally won’t necessarily translate into a hiring boom, said Richard Hastings, macro and consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. Some of last month’s growth was due to higher gasoline prices and expansion in low-employment sectors of the industry, including deep-discount chains Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR), Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO) and Dollar General Corp. (DG)

“We have to ask ourselves, how many people work in each store?” Hastings said. Also, large stores have become highly efficient at managing their workforce, for example scheduling staff only during peak shopping hours, he said.

Internet-based sales expanded faster than brick-and-mortar sales, growing by 9.3 percent in March from a year earlier compared with 6.5 percent, the Commerce Department reported, as online retailers, including Amazon.com Inc., continue to raid traditional merchants’ customer base.

“Retail-trade employment, long term, is not growing,” Hastings said.
Industry Changes

Industry changes are evident. Some large department stores are restructuring to adapt to more-nimble competitors and changing shopper demand. Plano, Texas-based J.C. Penney Co. (JCP) this month said it will eliminate nearly 1,000 positions. Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD), based in Hoffman Estates, Illinois, plans to close 62 of its 4,010 stores in the first half of the year and has not estimated the number of jobs lost. Richfield, Minnesota- based Best Buy Co. (BBY) will shutter 50 big-box locations, the company announced in March, cutting 400 jobs in its corporate and support areas plus an unspecified number of store personnel.

Others are aggressively expanding. Macy’s, the owner of its namesake and Bloomingdale’s chains, said in February that it may hire 4,000 new employees this year, matching the 4,000 positions it added last year.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. (ULTA), based in Bolingbrook, Illinois, plans to hire 2,000 employees this year to staff 100 new stores and a distribution center for its makeup and hair-care products.

The optimism extends to smaller merchants, too. South Moon Under, a privately held mid-Atlantic fashion retailer, has seen 15 consecutive months of improved sales at its 15 stores, climbing back to pre-recession levels last year. Now the Berlin, Maryland, company plans two new locations and will add 50 people to its 325-person staff in the coming months.

“Business is growing rather rapidly,” Chief Executive Officer Frank Gunion said. “We’re becoming more aggressive.”