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TOPIC: Global Macro Trends
#21723
Global Macro Trends 1 Year, 7 Months ago Karma: 218
To the forum,

The original article is long on "analysis" (link). Personally, I'm familiar with KKR and there's quite a range of info (macro).

Jeff, when you have time, I'd appreciate your input.

Thank You
Earl

www.kkr.com/company/insights/global-macro-trends-14
Earl
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#21729
Re: Global Macro Trends 1 Year, 7 Months ago Karma: 262
Earl, this articl exemplifies the old maxim "garbage in, garbage out." It's impossible to produce intelligent -- or even useful -- analysis from flawed (phony, fraudulent) data.

While there is plenty of "garbage" to choose from here, I plucked out this one line:

...in a world where many central banks are running nominal GDP significantly above nominal interest rates.

NO.

Virtually ALL Western economies are SHRINKING right now. It's only the massive lies they tell about inflation which (automatically) pump-up the GDP numbers -- from negative to positive.

Thus while interest rates are near-zero (or absolute zero in the U.S.); GDP is less than zero. So when this clown talks about being "moderately optimistic" about the "current growth cycle"; there isn't any growth.



This means that 100% of this analysis is entirely useless, since it's based on an economic FANTASY.

Listening to people like this would be like getting vacation advice from a travel consultant who confuses the Arctic with the Equator -- and advises people to bring along a thick parka for their tropical vacation.

Jeff Nielson
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#21732
Re: Global Macro Trends 1 Year, 7 Months ago Karma: 218
Jeff,

I was reluctant to post and ask. But there T&A (have you seen so many charts), the business model, curiosity and confirmation of my instincts, just had to run it by you.

I appreciate you taking the time. I hope others see and learn to pick up lines like you did-

...in a world where many central banks are running nominal GDP significantly above nominal interest rates.


For myself, it helps me to pick up on the illustration and wording of a parasite and the confidence in that "analysis".

Thank You
Earl


Personally, I'm familiar with KKR and there's quite a range of info (macro).


finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=KKR+Profile

Business Summary

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. is a private equity investment firm specializing in acquisitions, leveraged buyouts, management buyouts, special situations, growth equity, mature, and middle market investments. The firm considers investments in all industries with a focus on industry-leading franchises and companies in natural resource, energy and infrastructure assets, real estate, containers and packaging, commodity chemicals, airports, ports , textiles, apparel and luxury goods, household durables, leisure facilities, communications, insurance, brokerage houses, non-durable goods distribution, supermarket retailing, hospitals, entertainment venues and production companies, publishing, printing services, capital goods, financial services, and renewable energy. In energy and infrastructure, it typically focuses in upstream production and surrounding services as well as in the long-lived infrastructure assets that provide critical links in the supply chain and electric and gas utilities. In real estate, the firm seeks to invest in private and public real estate securities including property-level equity, debt and special situations transactions and businesses with significant real estate holdings, and oil and natural gas properties. The firm seeks to invest in mid- to high-end residential developments, but can invest in other projects throughout Mainland China through outright ownership, joint ventures, and merger. It typically invests globally with a focus on Australia, emerging and developed Asia, Southeast Asia, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom, Caribbean, Mexico, South America, Canada, and United States of America. In the United States and Europe, the firm focuses on buyouts of large, publicly traded companies. It seeks to invest $30 million to $717 million in companies with enterprise values between $597 million to $2389 million. The firm prefers to invest in a range of debt and public equity investing and may co-invest. It seeks a board seat in its portfolio companies and a controlling ownership of a company or a strategic minority positions. The firm typically holds its investment for a period of five years and more and exits through initial public offerings, secondary offerings, and sales to strategic buyers. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. was founded in 1976 and is based in New York, New York with additional offices across United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.
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#21736
Re: Global Macro Trends 1 Year, 7 Months ago Karma: 262
Earl, I should add that I'm not commenting in any way on the quality of the analysis itself.

This was why I made a point of using the "garbage in/garbage out" maxim. I stopped looking at the analysis once I saw what he was accepting as data. Lots of smart people (for one reason or another) use flawed data.

Of course one possibility is always that he's part of the propaganda machine, in terms of being a knowing conspirator rather than just an ignorant dupe. However with only this information available my suspicion is "dupe". What we have to realize is that many of these "respected businessmen" simply cannot conceive of a world where some/most/all of their treasured, white-collar institutions are anything less than how they are portrayed.

Ben Bernanke is the wisest human being on the planet.
The U.S. economy is an eternal juggernaut.
The U.S. dollar will always be the reserve currency.

But here we get back to zealotry. It is the dogmatic faith of these people which can short-circuit even otherwise-fine intellects.
Jeff Nielson
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Last Edit: 2013/01/28 00:56 By Jeff Nielson.
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