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"Debt Jubilee" is coming soon...!!!
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TOPIC: "Debt Jubilee" is coming soon...!!!
#21912
"Debt Jubilee" is coming soon...!!! 1 Year, 10 Months ago Karma: 268
There was some hilarious dithering and dancing around by Bloomberg, as it ATTEMPTED to float the trial-balloon of "debt-restructuring" for the entire G-20 -- on behalf of these (mostly) corrupt/dishonest governments.

Naturally, "debt-restructuring" is another one of the pathetic euphemisms the propaganda machine uses when it wants to sugar-coat bad news.



So precisely what is "debt-restructuring"? You take a stack of government bonds, and you take a MATCH. You light the match, and PRESTO! The government bonds "disappear".

Naturally, the Liars at Bloomberg are having difficulty dealing with this subject. When you've spend the better part of two DECADES telling Chumps how "smart" and "safe" they are by buying all these government bonds -- most notably the record-priced U.S. Treasuries (lol!!) -- it isn't easy to tell those same Chumps that some/most/all of those "safe" bonds are about to go to ZERO.



And so we have Bloomberg suggesting that this subject needs to be handled delicately, so that it doesn't "roil" markets -- i.e. cause the largest/most-frantic financial stampede in HISTORY, as idiot-bondholders ALL try to "sell" their worthless bonds at the same time.



So the "plan" is to try to very, very, very QUIETLY negotiate some vast debt-default agreement amongst these Deadbeat Debtor governments -- while (hopefully) not waking any of the idiot-bondholders from their self-induced COMAS.



The natural reply when presented with such a "plan" is that no one could be "that stupid" as to not notice what was/is taking place. And the rebuttal to that is to note that all of these Chumps were stupid enough to buy all this worthless paper in the first place...




EU Says G-20 Debt Restructuring Talks Could Roil Markets


www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-06/eu-say...ld-roil-markets.html

The Group of 20 nations should take care not to spook markets if they decide to discuss sovereign debt restructuring when finance ministers and central bankers meet next week in Moscow, the European Union said in a planning document prepared for the Feb. 14-16 meeting.

Russia has proposed adding the topic to the meeting’s agenda via talks on the Institute of International Finance’s proposed best practices. IIF, the Washington-based trade group that represented creditors in Greece’s landmark restructuring last year, drew up the guidelines in order to prevent future strains from triggering a sovereign debt crisis like the one facing the euro area for the past three years.

“The EU does not oppose discussing this issue, but we should be aware that it could be market sensitive, in particular in light of the recent legal case on Argentinian debt,” the EU said in its G-20 planning document, dated Feb. 5.

Argentina, which defaulted on $95 billion of bonds in 2001, has been appealing an Oct. 26 U.S. court ruling that said the country can’t treat holders of its restructured debt more favorably than so-called holdout creditors who didn’t take part in writedowns.

The EU document also calls on the U.S. to reach a “credible” medium-term budget plan and tackle high unemployment. Japan needs to meet its medium-term fiscal commitments and China needs to accelerate structural reforms and move “more rapidly” toward a market-based currency system.

The EU assessed its own prospects as much improved, saying “tail risks have significantly receded in the euro area thanks to strong policy actions.” It also said it remains committed to a “timely and consistent implementation” of the Basel III capital accords, which have been delayed in Europe and the U.S. as discussions continue on how to implement the standards.
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#21993
Re: "Debt Jubilee" is coming soon...!!! 1 Year, 10 Months ago Karma: 75
Recently I heard you point out that it is paradoxical that the interest rates paid on U.S. government debt are dramatically low at a time when the risk of default is the highest it has ever been in its history. You might not have used the word "paradoxical," but I seem to remember that that was your meaning. While it might seem to be a paradox to those who are not yet aware of the true nature and extent of the hormone therapy being utilized in order to give the bond market the appearance of being firm and virile, it is actually not a paradox at all. It is a contradiction. It is a case of two conditions that do not naturally belong together being forced to exist at the same point in time. A contradiction usually indicates that a lie or other dishonest act is in play. I suspect that the closer we get to the moment when the original lie is exposed, the more convoluted will be the subsequent lies told in order to keep the original lie camouflaged. I also suspect that as we move closer to the moment of truth, the greater will be the incidents of perplexing events unfolding in the world. At some point the emperor will be forced to take a final trot down the fashion runway in an attempt to show off his nonexistent clothes. All he will be wearing at that point is an oversized codpiece.
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#22005
Re: "Debt Jubilee" is coming soon...!!! 1 Year, 10 Months ago Karma: 268
agau121 wrote:
Recently I heard you point out that it is paradoxical that the interest rates paid on U.S. government debt are dramatically low at a time when the risk of default is the highest it has ever been in its history. You might not have used the word "paradoxical," but I seem to remember that that was your meaning. While it might seem to be a paradox to those who are not yet aware of the true nature and extent of the hormone therapy being utilized in order to give the bond market the appearance of being firm and virile, it is actually not a paradox at all. It is a contradiction. It is a case of two conditions that do not naturally belong together being forced to exist at the same point in time. A contradiction usually indicates that a lie or other dishonest act is in play. I suspect that the closer we get to the moment when the original lie is exposed, the more convoluted will be the subsequent lies told in order to keep the original lie camouflaged. I also suspect that as we move closer to the moment of truth, the greater will be the incidents of perplexing events unfolding in the world. At some point the emperor will be forced to take a final trot down the fashion runway in an attempt to show off his nonexistent clothes. All he will be wearing at that point is an oversized codpiece.

Actually AgAu, if I used a "P" word to describe the current paradigm of U.S. bond prices being the highest in history, DESPITE the U.S. never being less-solvent AND in a high-interest rate environment; the word I would have used would have been "perversion".

I would have never used the term paradox; since with paradox's there are quite often explanations -- which of course indicates there was no real "pardox" in the first place. What we see in the U.S. bond market is fundamentally different from a qualitative standpoint.

We don't "wonder why" U.S. bond prices are priced where they are. There is NO posibble mathematical/economic reality where these bonds could/should be priced anywhere near their current fantasy levels. In fact (and unequivocally) U.S. Treasuries should be at their LOWEST prices in history (i.e. interest rates should be at all-time highs).

Indeed the REAL reason it is imperative for Western governments to TOTALLY (and fraudulently) manipulate their own bond markets is that if MOST of these Deadbeat Debtors were required to pay "market rates" on their debts TODAY; the entire Western financial system would collapse in a debt-default domino effect today -- starting with the U.S.

This is something which other commentators fail to understand, and so you get ridiculous "theories" that our governments (and bankers) are manipulating interest rates alone -- rather than engaing in brute-force purchases in bond markets.

There ARE no buyers for any of this worthless paper...at these fantasy prices. And with our governments more insolvent by the day; it's impossible for these bond-markets to ever become functional again -- until AFTER mass debt-default.
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#22007
Re: "Debt Jubilee" is coming soon...!!! 1 Year, 10 Months ago Karma: 75
Yes, brute force is being used and portrayed as a therapeutic intervention. Prior to reading your comment here, I had not previously considered the idea that it is actually IMPOSSIBLE for the bond market to become functional again until, as you say, AFTER a mass debt default. I have thought about it from other angels but not this one specifically. The more I think about it, the more I realize that it is true. Ongoing QE both CREATES the artificially low interest rates and simultaneously creates the conditions that make it IMPOSSIBLE for them to return to normal without a default just as the equal sign can never be ignored in an equation.

I wonder if it is also mathematically impossible to suppress the price of gold and silver indefinitely and what conditions must be present for the present manufactured distortion to disintegrate.
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#22012
Re: "Debt Jubilee" is coming soon...!!! 1 Year, 10 Months ago Karma: 268
agau121 wrote:
Yes, brute force is being used and portrayed as a therapeutic intervention. Prior to reading your comment here, I had not previously considered the idea that it is actually IMPOSSIBLE for the bond market to become functional again until, as you say, AFTER a mass debt default. I have thought about it from other angels but not this one specifically. The more I think about it, the more I realize that it is true. Ongoing QE both CREATES the artificially low interest rates and simultaneously creates the conditions that make it IMPOSSIBLE for them to return to normal without a default just as the equal sign can never be ignored in an equation.

I wonder if it is also mathematically impossible to suppress the price of gold and silver indefinitely and what conditions must be present for the present manufactured distortion to disintegrate.



AgAu, one of the good things about having some "new blood" on the Forum is that it will generally force me to revisit old themes/concepts. This is a "good thing" because not only are there OTHER new readers out there at any given time (but who are just "lurkers" here) who can also use such insights; but it never hurts to repeat themes with older readers -- because sometimes it's the second or third iteration of an idea which is when it really "sinks in".

In regard to your question about "mathematics" and bullion-suppression; it's really pretty simple. Our ENTIRE "physical" world is governed by mathematics -- absolutely. In the case of commodity markets (i.e. markets for PHYSICAL goods) those markets can be WARPED; but always with inevitable consequences.

With price-suppression these dynamics are the epitome of simplicity:

1) Driving down prices ALWAYS destroys inventories; as low prices simultaneously stimulate buyers and discourage suppliers.

2) Inventory destruction then not only leads to "higher prices"; but prices which are even higher than if there had never been any suppression in the first place.

This is because NOTHING except higher prices can reverse the inventory-destruction to inventory-building. And after inventories have been destroyed; not only do we require "equilibrium" prices; but we require higher-than-equilibrium prices to suppress demand and stimulate supply long enough for inventories to rebuild.

I summarize this concept with one of my (many) slogans (lol):

"Low prices lead to high prices."

This is pure mathematics. And with pure mathematics we never merely think things to be true. We KNOW them to be true -- in absolute terms. I've written several commentaries on this subject, generally involving use of my famous(?) "chocolate bar" example. Here's one of them:

Silver: Shorting Consumes, Investing Conserves

This is why I have also been one of the loudest voices warning of the risks of bullion-confiscation:

1) NOTHING can stop bullion prices from exploding higher.
2) Exploding bullion prices will destroy their entire Paper-Fraud Empire.

This is why as soon as that price-explosion comes I predict imminent bullion-confiscation. In turn, this is why I recommend that people hold "physical" bullion; rather than bullion "funds" or "accounts" which can be confiscated with an effortless point-and-click.

Conversely, getting our PHYSICAL bullion from us (assuming we don't hand it over willingly) involves two things:

a) First proving we actually have the bullion.
b) Busting-down doors to come looking for it.

With our governments becoming more overtly Fascist by the day; it's my hope that they will satisfied confiscating all of the "easy" bullion -- rather than create additional anti-government hatred with full-scale Nazi tactics.
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#28456
Re: "Debt Jubilee" is coming soon...!!! 1 Year, 2 Months ago Karma: 227
To the Forum- Appreciate any and all feedback.

Thank You
Earl


U.S. Supreme Court won't hear Argentina bond dispute appeal


finance.yahoo.com/news/top-u-court-wont-hear-202332995.html

By Lawrence Hurley and Hugh Bronstein

WASHINGTON/BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear a preliminary appeal filed by Argentina over its battle with hedge funds that refused to take part in two debt restructurings stemming from the country's catastrophic 2002 default.

While not good news for President Cristina Fernandez, the court's decision did not alter a lower U.S. court's stay on a ruling ordering Argentina to pay the funds 100 cents on the dollar for the defaulted paper they hold.

Funds that reject the lower payments offered by Argentina's restructured bonds and demand full repayment of original debt totaling $1.3 billion have filed suits that have bounced around U.S. federal courts for more than a decade and could continue without final resolution for another year.

World markets are watching the case for the implications it might have on future sovereign debt restructurings. The International Monetary Fund has voiced fear that if Argentina is forced to pay the holdouts, it would make it more difficult for cash-strapped countries to re-negotiate their bond obligations.

Market reaction to the Supreme Court announcement was muted, with economists stressing the importance of the maintenance of the stay. Argentina's sovereign risk spread tightened 7 basis points to 998 over safe-haven U.S. Treasuries while the rest of JP Morgan's Emerging Market Bond Index Plus was flat at 344 basis points, indicating that Argentina remains the biggest default risk in the market.

"The Supreme Court's decision to not hear our appeal during this session does not change anything," Finance Secretary Adrian Cosentino said in a statement, citing litigation pending in lower U.S. courts, which could lead to another request for high court review next year.

Considering that Argentina can make all the same legal points in its next petition to the Supreme Court as it did in the one rejected on Monday, local analysts said it was reasonable that the high court was reluctant to enter the legal imbroglio while lower court appeals are still unresolved.

"It's the logical outcome," said Buenos Aires-based economist Guillermo Nielsen, who as finance secretary helped push through Argentina's debt restructuring in 2005.

FERNANDEZ SIDELINED

Fernandez is to be operated on Tuesday for a cerebral hematoma, taking her out of action in the midst of the court battle and three weeks before a key mid-term election that will determine the clout she enjoys in Congress during her final two years in office.

Fernandez vows never to pay the holdouts, whom she derides as "vultures" for picking over the bones of the 2002 default, which pushed millions of middle class Argentines into poverty.

The refusal to pay the holdouts in the face of a final U.S. court order to do so could pave the way for another default, as Argentina would be blocked from paying the holders of restructured bonds as well.

Easily re-elected in 2011 on promises of more government intervention into Latin America's No. 3 economy, Fernandez has seen her popularity wane due to high inflation and confidence-sapping foreign exchange controls meant to halt capital flight.

END GAME

Monday's Supreme Court ruling means it will not at this time review an October 2012 decision by the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York in which the court said the Argentine government had broken a contractual obligation to treat bondholders equally.

The Supreme Court's refusal to get involved means litigation in lower courts continues, with Argentina able to seek high court review again at a later date when there is a final ruling in the appeals court.

In August, that court issued another ruling, upholding a lower court's order that Argentina pay the bondholders $1.3 billion. The court stayed its decision pending possible Supreme Court review. Argentina also has asked the appeals court to reconsider its decision.

"If the stay is maintained, the likelihood of a technical default is low, at least in the near term," said Ignacio Labaqui, who analyses Argentina for Medley global Advisors.

The case's end-game has meanwhile shifted to the political arena in Buenos Aires, where the ailing Fernandez is in the twilight of her second term and faces a likely poor showing by her candidates in the October 27 mid-term election, said Gary Kleiman, of emerging markets consultancy Kleiman International.

"With these judicial and political power setbacks, a compromise solution to the long holdout saga involving at least indirect negotiations could finally be on the horizon," he said.

In two restructurings, in 2005 and 2010, creditors holding around 93 percent of Argentina's debt agreed to participate in debt swaps that gave them 25 cents to 29 cents on the dollar.

But bondholders led by hedge funds NML Capital Ltd, a unit of Paul Singer's Elliott Management Corp, and Aurelius Capital Management went to court, seeking payment in full.

The case before the Supreme Court was Argentina v. NML Capital, 12-1494.
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