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Contradictory messages from the propaganda machine
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TOPIC: Contradictory messages from the propaganda machine
#17095
Contradictory messages from the propaganda machine 2 Years, 3 Months ago Karma: 261
Understand the dynamics of propaganda: attempting to get people to believe the biggest lies possible. However, some "bad news" is deemed to be too obvious to attempt to portray it as "good news" - and so at least on occasion the propaganda machine is forced to temper its "don't worry, be happy" message.

The PROBLEM which arises for the propaganda machine is that there is SO MUCH of this statistical pablum being spoon-fed to the sheep that from time to time the various media outlets aren't able to COORDINATE their propaganda - and so we see ONE propaganda outlet call a particular statistic "good news" while another outlet calls the SAME number "bad news".

We see an example of that here:

"Durable goods orders hint at weak first quarter"


www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/28/us-us...dUSBRE82Q0VN20120328

(Reuters) - New orders for long-lasting U.S. factory goods increased only modestly in February, supporting the view that economic growth in the first quarter could be lackluster...


Now watch the Bloomberg propagandists go to work with the SAME bad news...


"Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Show Sustained Demand: Economy"


www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-28/orders...2-2-in-february.html

Orders placed with U.S. factories for durable goods rose in February for a fourth month in the last five, signaling manufacturing will remain a source of strength for the expansion...





Never forget that the bias is to try to spin ALL these statistics as good news, so obviously we know which of these reports is at least FAINTLY realistic.

Jeff Nielson
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#17099
Re: Contradictory messages from the propaganda machine 2 Years, 3 Months ago Karma: 168
Jeff, frankly speaking, I do not understand these statistics at all! just look at the statement from bloomberg
Orders placed with U.S. factories for durable goods rose in February for a fourth month in the last five, signaling manufacturing will remain a source of strength for the expansion...
such statements remind me of the kind of Math questions I had back in school the ones like,
"If the father was born 30 years before the mother and the mother was 25 years older to the first child who was 10, what is the age of the uncle who was born two years after the first child!"
samix
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#17101
Re: Contradictory messages from the propaganda machine 2 Years, 3 Months ago Karma: 261
samix wrote:
Jeff, frankly speaking, I do not understand these statistics at all! just look at the statement from bloomberg
Orders placed with U.S. factories for durable goods rose in February for a fourth month in the last five, signaling manufacturing will remain a source of strength for the expansion...
such statements remind me of the kind of Math questions I had back in school the ones like,
"If the father was born 30 years before the mother and the mother was 25 years older to the first child who was 10, what is the age of the uncle who was born two years after the first child!"



Samix, while the wording is rather clumsy, the statement is relatively straightforward: durable goods orders have risen (rather than fallen) in four out of the last five months.

However, even apart from the way we have the propaganda machine TWISTING this number, "durable goods" is one of THE most misleading statistics - especially for the U.S. economy.

The problem is that there are SEVERAL more or less totally distinct categories of durable goods.

1) "transportation" (primarily aircraft) - This number bounces all over the place, based upon whether there were any large NEW orders for aircraft. As a result, most analysts strip-out the transportation component completely when they look at this.

2) military - Obviously this is all TOTALLY wasted investment (except with respect to how the U.S. uses its military as a protection-racket for the drug trade). So we should also strip-out MILITARY orders from this number. And also military orders fluctuate wildly as well.

3) automobile - Clearly this IS an important category of durable goods, but (again) these numbers go up and down, AND there are factors affecting automobile orders which do NOT apply to the general economy. So analysts often strip-out auto numbers as well

4) all the rest - Here we actually get to the IMPORTANT stuff: machinery (to be used to build MORE durable or consumer goods) and consumer durable goods (stoves, washing machines, etc). Here is where we get to the REALLY important part of this number. However the ONLY time that the propaganda machine will highlight the important aspects of the durable goods statistic is on the VERY rare occasions where this number is strong too...

Jeff Nielson
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