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TOPIC: Market Pessimism Report.....
#22229
Market Pessimism Report..... 1 Year, 10 Months ago Karma: 21
www.laurentempletoninvestments.com/documents/sma-1356724617.pdf

This is Laura Templetons October report. Maximum Pessimism is its name. And here is a quote from it:

[i][b]"It is also within this last resource oriented category we described that we find what we believe to be
compelling bargains at this moment in time in the form of gold miners. At first glance, it may seem
strange to use the words bargain and gold in the same sentence. However, the distinction lies not in the
shiny yellow metal but rather in the observation that the mining firms operating in this space have not
traded at such low valuations since the Lehman induced panic of the financial crisis during late 2008. As
we can see in the following illustration, valuation multiples including price to cash flow, and enterprise
value to EBITDA, taken from the average of gold miners as a group are matching the lows of the 2008
crisis, a time when stocks were in a veritable free-fall."


I dont think there can be much COMFORT at this time in holders of bullion and mines (and i am seriously uncomfortable) --- yet this is an interesting and i think good analysis --- the whole report is, i think, real good ---- an analysis that Jeff has, incidentally, raised many times before. So, its sort of a confirmation by a management firm. Hope all is well....bernie
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#22240
Re: Market Pessimism Report..... 1 Year, 10 Months ago Karma: 268
Thanks for the post Arihalli.

There are two interesting points to make in response to it. First (as you noted), this comes from one of the mainstream Dupes who drink the propaganda Kool-aid regarding both our markets and economies.

And as Arihalli notes, in a weird sort of way this provides "validation" for us here; when even people with little-to-no-understanding of bullion begin to take note of the (insanely) cheap valuations of the miners.

At first glance, it may seem strange to use the words bargain and gold in the same sentence. However, the distinction lies not in the shiny yellow metal but rather in the observation that the mining firms operating in this space have not traded at such low valuations since the Lehman induced panic of the financial crisis during late 2008.


This quote is absolutely hilarious (when viewed on this site), since the people here who hold shares in the miners (or are thinking about doing so) hold those shares because these companies are digging gold and silver out of the ground... not in spite of that fact.



But note the OTHER important analytical point here. Many newer investors in these miners (who haven't yet lived through anything as devastating as the Crash of '08 -- and emerged out of it) often ask (with something close to despair) "When will this market turn?"

I've described those conditions before, but now we can SEE them for ourselves. When do we know (without any shadow of a doubt) that the ABSOLUTE "bottom" is near for gold/silver miners? People who don't like bullion are now saying to themselves "the miners are cheap."

The tide comes back in.

And when that happens (as during the Spring of 2009); ALL bankster manipulation of these miners is blown out of the water. I'll repeat my own experiences after the Crash of '08 -- although they don't represent a "guarantee" for either myself or others in the future.

At the BOTTOM at the end of 2008; my entire portfolio had plummeted by more than 80% from previously low values. And then the tide came back in.

In less than 18 months my entire portfolio had risen well over 1000% percent off the bottom, and roughly tripling in value from where it was before the Crash of '08 began. Since that time, even after all the months of grinding lower; my portfolio is still roughly worth DOUBLE what it was before the Crash of '08.

That's only a little over 4 years, meaning with prices currently near some absolute bottom; I'm sitting on more than a 20% rate of annual return on my portfolio. I don't even try to imagine how high that rate-of-return will go at the top of the NEXT rally.

All empirical evidence indicates that the next rallies for both bullion and the miners will be BIGGER than anything we have yet seen...


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#22241
Re: Market Pessimism Report..... 1 Year, 10 Months ago Karma: 75
It is helpful to hear this sort of historical perspective, particularly from a personal perspective, because I am one of those people who DIDN'T live through the crash of 2008 and only started getting involved in early 2010. My survival story begins with the current downturn, which probably seems quite mamby pamby to yourself and others. Can it really get much worse than it already has? It's difficult to imagine, but I'm still a relative newbie. I suppose this would all be easier to endure if I had a sense of what a realistic worst case scenario for us might be. My recent coping strategy is simply not to look at the performance of my mining shares because I know it will simply trigger activity from my amygdala (reptile brain) that will in turn require even more energy to quell. It's natural to feel a tension between reasoning portion of one's brain and the amygdala. I only hope the reasoning portion of my brain has not deluded itself over the last few years with some subtle form of whack jobbery and wishful thinking. I doubt it, but I still have to step back from time to time to check my premises.
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#22246
Re: Market Pessimism Report..... 1 Year, 10 Months ago Karma: 268
agau121 wrote:
It is helpful to hear this sort of historical perspective, particularly from a personal perspective, because I am one of those people who DIDN'T live through the crash of 2008 and only started getting involved in early 2010. My survival story begins with the current downturn, which probably seems quite mamby pamby to yourself and others. Can it really get much worse than it already has? It's difficult to imagine, but I'm still a relative newbie. I suppose this would all be easier to endure if I had a sense of what a realistic worst case scenario for us might be. My recent coping strategy is simply not to look at the performance of my mining shares because I know it will simply trigger activity from my amygdala (reptile brain) that will in turn require even more energy to quell. It's natural to feel a tension between reasoning portion of one's brain and the amygdala. I only hope the reasoning portion of my brain has not deluded itself over the last few years with some subtle form of whack jobbery and wishful thinking. I doubt it, but I still have to step back from time to time to check my premises.


No need to feel sheepish AgAu. Even for those newer investors familiar with the Crash of '08 chronology (with respect to the precious metals sector); it's one thing to read about such an episode and something quite different to experience it.



It's not fun. But it is certainly educational. It may not teach us "courage", but it certainly makes it much easier not to succumb to the fear-mongering from the mainstream media.

Maybe that's the same thing...?



When you emerge from such an episode you will lose your fear of the banking cabal once and for all. My pal BigDad06 (with whom I've recorded a number of clips) did a clip a couple of years ago about what I call the "Mike Tyson moment."

While non-violent human beings have little to learn from Mike Tyson; BigDad managed to find a highly poignant allegory. It was Tyson in his own words talking about how when he stepped into the ring with an opponent he would IMMEDIATELY stare him in the eye.

And he would never be the one to flinch/turn away. (According to Tyson) the moment his opponent looked away, he knew he was defeated.

I actually had my own "Mike Tyson moment" back in the fall of 2007; when bullion markets had broken out of another LONG sideways grind -- back when I was still relatively new to the sector, and had not yet previously experienced such a test of resolve/conviction.

After the Fall of 2007; I no longer needed Jim Sinclair to hold my hand on a regular basis (lol). So while I was in a state of shock when the banksters "bombed" my portfolio back in 2008, I was not afraid.

I sold practically nothing. I did some "day-trading" -- the only time I've ever done that -- because the insane markets would literally BOUNCE way up one day, and PLUNGE the next, and it became so regular that even novices like myself could time it. [Note: I do NOT recommend that in any future crash and I will not attempt to do this again myself.]

But basically all I did through my portfolio massacre was wait for the rebound I knew was going to come. I'm certainly no "hero", but I've been forged by the bankers themselves -- and all their years of prior manipulation.

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#22250
Re: Market Pessimism Report..... 1 Year, 9 Months ago Karma: 21
Jeff/All, the drop of 80% would have left me emotionally scarred. A tribute to your business acumen..

I have a question. I noticed that the drop this week has been SOLELY metals. They have gotten routed. It was almost breathtaking the takedown. So quick.

What targeted the metals? There are still the same old reports of Asians buying, Fed required to QE 40-80bil per months, etc. But what accounts for this assault?

I have heard only one thing. Not what i wanted to hear. Each time the Fed made purchases we could expect, like clockwork, some rise in the metals. Inflation. But one analyst felt that the purchases are having less and less effect because they don't (and everyone must know - those purchases can't produce growth - especially since i don't think they even leave the banks)....this isn't something new.

My question is: has anyone seen GROWTH in the economies of USA or Europe that would provide a backdrop to taking the metals to the woodshed? I thought they are getting worse (except for the American stock market).... thanks all
arihalli
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#22252
Re: Market Pessimism Report..... 1 Year, 9 Months ago Karma: 75
I've been thinking about this since last week. I've been doing "thought experiments." Being as I lack the sophistication of many others within the PM community, I can only come up with speculative answers based on what I read. I admit that I have very little ability to do any original research or thinking about the matter.

Thought experiment #1:
Assume that there is NO manipulation of the precious metals market. Under these circumstances, from where is the selling coming, and who is buying?

What is being done with the proceeds raised from the sales of the metals?

Thought experiment #2:
Assume that there IS manipulation of the precious metals market. Under these circumstances, from where is the selling coming, and who is buying?

What is being done with the proceeds raised from the sales of the metals?

Are the proceeds being used to actually SHORT the equities market rather than go long?

Are we witnessing the later stages of a pump and dump?

Or, perhaps the big players really do believe the economy is recovering and are expecting a sustained bull market in equities and are taking long positions.

In any event, while the EXTENT of the manipulation is debatable, the question of whether there IS or is NOT manipulation is a binary factor.

I welcome anyone else's thoughts about this. I would like to be able to offer some of my own, but my thoughts about it are not very well formed at this point and therefore difficult to articulate intelligibly.
agau121
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#22255
Re: Market Pessimism Report..... 1 Year, 9 Months ago Karma: 268
arihalli wrote:
Jeff/All, the drop of 80% would have left me emotionally scarred. A tribute to your business acumen..

I have a question. I noticed that the drop this week has been SOLELY metals. They have gotten routed. It was almost breathtaking the takedown. So quick.

What targeted the metals? There are still the same old reports of Asians buying, Fed required to QE 40-80bil per months, etc. But what accounts for this assault?

I have heard only one thing. Not what i wanted to hear. Each time the Fed made purchases we could expect, like clockwork, some rise in the metals. Inflation. But one analyst felt that the purchases are having less and less effect because they don't (and everyone must know - those purchases can't produce growth - especially since i don't think they even leave the banks)....this isn't something new.

My question is: has anyone seen GROWTH in the economies of USA or Europe that would provide a backdrop to taking the metals to the woodshed? I thought they are getting worse (except for the American stock market).... thanks all



Arihalli, I've actually been discussing this in quite a bit of detail in The Daily Grind. The flaw in your premise is that you are looking for a positive/legitimate "reason" for metals prices going to lower.

In fact, what we have seen over the past several years are the most-savage attacks on metals markets when the banksters are most-worried about prices soaring higher. The Crash of '08 being a perfect example. $Trillions upon $trillions in direct/indirect money-printing - virtually over-night. That was the first moment where there was literally the risk of hyperinflation in the immediate sense.

This is why I'm expecting something dramatic, with this current attack being preemptive.
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#22256
Re: Market Pessimism Report..... 1 Year, 9 Months ago Karma: 268
agau121 wrote:
I've been thinking about this since last week. I've been doing "thought experiments." Being as I lack the sophistication of many others within the PM community, I can only come up with speculative answers based on what I read. I admit that I have very little ability to do any original research or thinking about the matter.

Thought experiment #1:
Assume that there is NO manipulation of the precious metals market. Under these circumstances, from where is the selling coming, and who is buying?

What is being done with the proceeds raised from the sales of the metals?

Thought experiment #2:
Assume that there IS manipulation of the precious metals market. Under these circumstances, from where is the selling coming, and who is buying?

What is being done with the proceeds raised from the sales of the metals?

Are the proceeds being used to actually SHORT the equities market rather than go long?

Are we witnessing the later stages of a pump and dump?

Or, perhaps the big players really do believe the economy is recovering and are expecting a sustained bull market in equities and are taking long positions.

In any event, while the EXTENT of the manipulation is debatable, the question of whether there IS or is NOT manipulation is a binary factor.

I welcome anyone else's thoughts about this. I would like to be able to offer some of my own, but my thoughts about it are not very well formed at this point and therefore difficult to articulate intelligibly.



AgAu, as with Arihalli, there are flaws in the premises of your reasoning.

First, dismiss the "if there is no manipulation of metals prices" line of thinking, because it's just wasted energy. There is no plausible explanation of metals markets in general, and the share prices of the miners in particular which does not necessarily imply extreme manipulation.

Until that much is clear, you really need to do further reading here. This is something I establish (in conclusive terms) in perhaps four or five different ways in my commentaries.

Now with respect to your questions about how the metals markets function; again what we're dealing with here is a lack of understanding of how the system functions. Bullion-trading is totally dominated by trading in the "futures" market.

This is essentially a totally paper market where traders purchase "contracts" for (potential) "delivery" one or more months into the future -- hence the term "futures market." As each contract reaches maturity; the purchaser has the option to elect to "take delivery".

Then (and only then) does an actual transfer of metal take place. Because the buyer is responsible for paying the costs to transfer the metal from the warehouse in which it is stored to his own custody; for those buyers engaged purely in trading, they will usually choose NOT to take delivery.

The contract is settled on a purely cash basis, since all the trader wants to do anyways is to reinvest those paper profits in some future contract. In fact, trading in this (ultra-fraudulent) paper market exceeds actual trading of physical metal by MANY multiples.

And the TOTAL size of the paper market (including the even more-fraudulent derivatives market) is somewhere in excess of 100:1 -- as stated by the head of the CPM Group, infamous banker-mouthpiece Jeffrey Christian.

This is why you will read in the discussions of many commentators the importance of "taking delivery" in metals markets. Conversely, at times when inventories are rumored to be especially tight; there have been widespread rumors of large "premiums" (i.e. bribes) being paid to traders to take PAPER rather than insisting on delivery of metal when they settle their contracts.

At the same time, we're long since past the point where these markets are "controlled" by the bankers. The metals markets are ruled by the Big Buyers. THEY are the ones who can bring the bankers to their knees any time they want -- simply by cleaning out their last, remaining inventories.

You can't "leverage" ZERO.

Let me anticipate your next (novice) question: why don't the Big Buyers do so -- and fix these markets once and for all?

Here you would receive the gentle rebuke to "think like the Big Buyers." What are they doing? Accumulating bullion -- lots of bullion. These people are not TRADERS. They're not looking to "break the bankers" so that they can make a "big profit" on their bullion.

Where would that leave them? With a fist full of paper -- which is what they are trying to get rid of in the first place.



The Big Buyers want to accumulate lots of metal, and (naturally) if they have the choice of paying HIGH prices for their metal or LOW prices for that metal; what do you think they will choose?

The bankers work for the Big Buyers, although obviously not intentionally. It's the psychopathic bankers who provide the Big Buyers with a steady stream of cheap bullion, and so they are ALLOWED to manipulate prices lower to an extent...the extent being that as soon as those prices get so low that other buyers start moving in then the Big Buyers bid prices up -- they don't want more "competition" for their metal either.

And so the Waltz continues. The Bankers take prices down as low as they can -- without frustrating the intentions of the Big Buyers. Those are the ONLY relevant realities in the trading in the phony paper market.
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#22258
Re: Market Pessimism Report..... 1 Year, 9 Months ago Karma: 75
In fact, what we have seen over the past several years are the most-savage attacks on metals markets when the banksters are most-worried about prices soaring higher....

This is why I'm expecting something dramatic, with this current attack being preemptive.


Increase in attack = increase in concern on the part of the Fed = greater reason for concern = eventual upward pressure on gold price

BING! Light bulb just went on in my head! It's a BBC moment. Thanks Jeff. I love this forum. And thanks arihalli for posting this.
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#22259
Re: Market Pessimism Report..... 1 Year, 9 Months ago Karma: 75
Until that much is clear, you really need to do further reading here. This is something I establish (in conclusive terms) in perhaps four or five different ways in my commentaries.

I have read a number of your commentaries, but I have sort of taken a scatter shot approach because they are all, for the most part, so interesting and thought-provoking that I have had difficulty prioritizing them or lining them up in a logical order to read.

Based on what you perceive to be my blind spots and the flaws in my reasoning, will you suggest some commentaries for me to read and an order in which to read them? Otherwise, I will have to try to read them all, and that is unlikely to be practical. I might get to ALL of them eventually, but I would like to get up to get a grasp of the basics within a week or so if possible.
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