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Impending Global Climacteric: Profit & Protect

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

The three super-bubbles that I just mentioned (dollars, stock, and bonds) are all in the process of finishing a move. It is hard to say which one will fall first but it is the fall of the dollar which will have the biggest impact on the world. The dollar is not really strong. It has been falling for 50 years. The dollar is currently showing some temporary strength, but that is only because it is the mirror image of every currency in the world. Gold is the best indicator of what is happening to currencies, and all currencies have fallen 97 – 99 percent against gold in the last 100 years. Since the world crisis stated in 2007 and 2008, global debt has gone up by $60 trillion. But the World can never repay this debt. QE is only there to try to save a bankrupt financial system, as central banks buy their own debt. Full 90 percent of ECB bond issuances will be monetized and 100 percent of the Japanese issuances. This means that countries first issue their own debt and then buy it, the ultimate of all Ponzi schemes. Coming back to the three super-bubbles in the United States. Of the dollar, stock market and bonds, I would expect two, if not three, to stat a major and sustained fall this year. This fall will be the beginning of a long and very hard collapse of the world economy. Therefore I see a very difficult time of the world starting in 2015.”

Egon Von Greyerz, Matterhorn Capital Management

“Removing the Word ‘Patient’ does not mean we are ‘Impatient’.”

Fed Chair, Janet Yellen.

Inexorably, Relentlessly a Global Climacteric is coming, though it is to date obvious only to a very few.

It will profoundly affect not only our investments but also all major Nations and their citizenry.

And we will begin to see Visible Major Moves in The Global Climacteric in the next few weeks.

Indeed, we just saw some Precursors recently which the Main Stream Media either “neglected” to publicize or have trivialized.

To understand this Global Climacteric and how to Profit and Protect from it, consider the following and our most recent Letter and Forecasts posted at Deepcaster.com.

Ms. Yellen removed the “Patient” but then undercut that removal entirely by saying The Fed was not impatient, thus sending the signal that the Easy Money (no Fed rate hike) could continue for quite a while.

At that, the $US Fell back to 98ish and the Euro and Gold and Silver Rose.

But the $US is still (for a while) King of the Currency Hill, or more accurately, the Least Dirty Shirt in the Fiat Currency laundry.

But the Key Point is the one made by Von Greyerz, “The dollar is currently showing some temporary strength, but that is only because it is the Mirror image of every currency in the world.”

The U.S. is, supposedly, the Strongest Economy but consider what a Truth-Telling Boston University Economist has to say about that.

I told them the real 2014 deficit was $5 trillion, not the $500 billion or $300 billion or whatever it was announced to be this year. Almost all the liabilities of the government are being kept off the books by bogus accounting. The government is 58% underfinanced. Social Security is 33% underfinanced. So, the entire government enterprise is in worse fiscal shape than Social Security is, but they are both in terrible shape. [On future prospects] If you take all the expenditures that the government is expected to make, as projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), all the spending on defense, repairing the roads, paying for the Supreme Court Justice salaries, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, everything, and take all those expenditures into the future, and compare that to all the taxes that are projected to come in, then the difference is $210 trillion. That is the fiscal gap. That is our true debt.”

Lawrence Kotlikoff (economist, in testimony before the US Senate, a professor of Economics at Boston University)

Professor Kotlikoff’s comments are most accurately defined by Shadowstats.com’s superb statistics regarding the true state of the American Economy. Note especially that U.S. GDP is a Negative number and Real CPI is over 7% and Real Unemployment is 23.1% (see Note 4).

So, in Deepcaster’s view, we think it unlikely The Fed will raise rates this year. If they were to do that, the Equities Markets would Tank because there is no underlying strength in the U.S. or International Economy.

And the U.S. Debt can never be paid; it will have to be monetized.

Thus a Great Shift away from the $US as World’s Reserve Currency is beginning ¾ truly a Global Climacteric.

But The Key Point goes beyond the U.S.

Japan’s Debt is over 200% of GDP and they are engaging in an Orgy of Monetization.

And the European Central Bank is embarking on a €600 Billion Monetization Binge also.

And even China is easing.

The “Devaluation Currency Wars” are in High Gear.

Well, this Currency War has Many Consequences, many as yet unseen, some unintended. And they spell Profit for the Prepared and Disaster for the Unprepared, which is why Deepcaster has already begun recommending positioning to prepare (See Notes 1 and 2).

But this War is a Zero Sum Game. So how does it end?

In other words, how is the Great Power Shift and ensuing Mega-Move away from the $US as the World’s Reserve Currency manifesting itself?

China is the leading Force behind the BRICS Development Bank, called the New Development Bank (NDC) as well as the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

These Banks are designed to supplant The Fed/Mega-Bank Cartel-controlled (Note 3) World Bank and IMF.

Key Point. Not only have all the BRICS Nations joined the AIIB but also Britain and New Zealand, and Australia.

The U.S. was not encouraged to join — a clear Threat to the future of the $US as the World’s Reserve Currency. And the U.S. discouraged its aforementioned Key Allies from joining the AIIB but they did anyway.

Couple the foregoing with two facts.

1) the Chinese are also establishing a Chinese International Payment System (CIPS) to allow Banks to transfer funds without using the U.S. Banking system or the $US. Presumably it will be a vehicle for bypassing The SWIFT System.

2) the Chinese, Russians and Indians are all buying Massive Quantities of Physical Gold and Taking Delivery.

The Great Power Shift is toward a Gold-backed Chinese Yuan as the new World’s Reserve Currency.

Thus $US Displacement (and thus The (informal) Reduce-US-Power Movement) Movement is well underway.

A $US Destructive Mega-Move is approaching.

Thus the Key is Timing, on which we Focus in our Forecasts.

One possible trigger, for both the $US and Treasury Securities, is the Worm which will turn (Down) beginning in a few months when The Fed launches its next round of QE, as Negative Economic Trends and the likely intervening Market Crash will oblige it to do, and likely in Q4 or Q1, 2016.

But when The Fed starts Printing QE again — as it almost surely will — to boost the Equities Markets (which will likely have fallen by then on weak fundamentals), the $US and U.S. Treasuries both will then likely start to tank with the $US moving back down to 85ish basis USDX. At some point after that, the Chinese will likely de-peg the Yuan from its $US trading range, and the Yuan (Gold-backed!) will then be the World’s Reserve Currency.

Indeed, the Swiss have already set a precedent by depegging from the Euro.

The Fundamental Problem is too much Debt worldwide — Global Debt is up $57 Trillion! since 2007, just before the Financial Crisis. And China’s Debt has quadrupled since 2007! with much of that money going into now unused infrastructure, i.e., the famous empty cities. But China has increasing amounts of Physical Gold.

The Recent Several years of excesses of Monetary Inflation (primarily intended to protect the profits of The Private-For-Profit Fed’s Mega-Bank Shareholders/Clients) i.e. QE and Excess Credit, have been Capital Destructive (the more printed, the less each Unit is Worth in Purchasing Power terms). Thus we already see the consequence – Economic Deflation around the World with the Middle Class and Savers and Retirees horribly squeezed.

And worse, the repeated rounds of Monetary Inflation will eventually lead to Hyper-Price Inflation, and already have for Middle Class U.S. Citizens who have to pay increasing prices for Housing, Food and Medical Care. Result: increasing Stagflation, the worst of both worlds.

Therefore, preparing Now to Profit and Protect from the Impending Climacteric is in order.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
March 27, 2015

Note 1: Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in recent months in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios*

  • 60% Profit on a Telecommunications Company on March 11, 2015 after just just over 3 years (i.e., about 20% Annualized)
  • 45% Profit on a Currency Double Short ETF on January 22, 2015 after just 9 months (i.e., about 59% Annualized)
  • 23% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on January 6, 2015 after just 119 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 85% Profit on a REIT on December 31, 2014 after just three years (i.e., about 25% Annualized)
  • 105% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on October 15, 2014 after just 36 days (i.e., about 1090% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 10, 2014 after just 2 days (i.e., about 12,275% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 1, 2014 after just 8 days (i.e., about 3215% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on Double Short Euro Call on August 6, 2014 after just 106 days (i.e., about 200% Annualized)
  • 65% Profit on Energy Storage & Management Company on July7 15, 2014 after just 342 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 95% Profit on Crude Oil Call on June 11, 2014 after just 73 days (i.e., about 470% Annualized)

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.

Note 2: There are Magnificent Opportunities in the Ongoing Crises of Debt Saturation, Rising Unemployment, Negative Real GDP growth, and 7.55% Real U.S. Inflation (per Shadowstats.com) and prospective Sovereign and other Defaults.

One Sector full of Opportunities is the High-Yield Sector. Deepcaster’s High Yield Portfolio is aimed at generating Total Return (Gain + Yield) well in excess of Real Consumer Price Inflation (7.55% per year in the U.S. per Shadowstats.com).

To consider our High-Yield Stocks Portfolio recommendations with our most recent recommendation sporting a recent Yield of 16%, as well as others with Yields of 10.6%, 18.5%, 10.7%, 26%, 8%, 15.6%, 8.6%, 10%, 6.7%, 14.9%, 8.8%, 10.4% and 15.4% when added to the portfolio, go to Deepcaster.com and click on ‘High Yield Portfolio.’

Note 3: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s July, 2014 Letter entitled "Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention" in the ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation, and manipulation in other Markets. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 4: Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported March 25, 2015
-0.03%     /    7.55%

U.S. Unemployment reported March 6, 2015
5.54%     /     23.1%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported March 27, 2015
2.38%        /     -1.64%

U.S. M3 reported March 8, 2015 (Month of February, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /   5.71% (i.e., total M3 Now at $16.54 Trillion!)


Dr. Paul Craig Roberts - Unscripted Parts I & II

Posted by: RoryTDC

Tagged in: Untagged 

RoryTDC

Part I - Shadow Of TruthEp 8 - Dr. Paul Craig Roberts Unscripted

“The question that nobody ever thinks about is ‘why is a reserve currency necessary and why would China want to be it?’  I think the future is likely to be no reserve currency”  - Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Shadow of Truth


The Government’s employment report released on Friday, March 6 was quite possibly the most absurd economic report on record.  With all of the oil industry and retail industry layoffs that have been occurring since the end of 2014, how is it at all possible that these two sectors of the economy were the the primary foundation for what the Government reports as 295,000 jobs created in February and a 5.5% unemployment rate?  It’s not possible.  In fact it’s absurd that the Government had the fortitude to release a report like that:

 

Continue Reading - Dr. Paul Craig Roberts - Unscripted - http://thedailycoin.org/?p=21142

 

 

Part II - Shadow of Truth Ep. 9 - Dr. Paul Craig Roberts - Unemployed America

As our country and world slip further into the abyss of an economic slow down, the mainstream media only reports lies and propaganda. If we look at the reality of the job market the only jobs being created are, primarily, low wage, retail and service sector jobs. Not one of these job classes manufactures anything. How sustainable is an economy that simply shifts currency from a grocery store clerk, to a restaurant waiter or a nurse at the local hospital then back to the store clerk? This is merely a circle and the currency is trapped. Until someone steps in and creates a product that requires raw materials, from outside sources, and requires someone to sell what is manufactured, our economy can not and will not grow. 

 

When we review the employment information that is produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) every first Friday of the month the jobs listed above are the only jobs being reported as "improving". Let's take a look at what the BLS presented this month. 

 

Continue Reading - Interview with Dr. Roberts Paul Craig Roberts - http://thedailycoin.org/?p=21263


Mega-Trend Opportunities & Risks

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

Key Mega-Trends will Determine the Opportunities for Profit and Risks to Wealth Protection going forward.

The following Mega-trends are and will increasingly Determine and/or Trump Opportunities for Profit. And they will Determine Major Risks as well.

1) Economic Deflation – Even the recent Headline U.S. GDP Revision (courtesy of the U.S. BLS) came in lower than expected.

And Real U.S. GDP is a Negative Number (-1.64% per Shadowstats). And the Economic Data from other Major Economies reflects Deflation or Disinflation (e.g., in Japan Abenomics is not working and the Eurozone is not recovering and China is Disinflating). In sum, The International Economy is Deflating/Contracting.

2) Earnings — Earnings of U.S. Companies (supposedly the World’s Healthiest) have been Mixed, but the trend is toward more earnings misses

— this is Not Good for Equities Prices going forward

— And One Great Driver of the post-2009 Stock Prices Recovery, Energy Companies, Employment and Earnings and will increasingly now be a drag on overall Earnings.

3) Global Market Structure is increasingly Vulnerable.

— Derivatives: at nearly $700 Trillion Exposure to this leverage, this is the same order of Magnitude as pre-Market Crash 2008 and

— Much more Global Debt is outstanding than in 2008. Debt which can never be repaid.

— Japan, e.g., expects to spend 43% of Tax Revenue just on interest to service its Debt.

— Arguably, two Bubbles could be ready to Burst — the Equities Bubble and The Bond Bubble and Deepcaster recently forecast the future for these.

4) While Major Economies are Contracting/Deflating, Major Central Banks are competing to devalue their Currencies via Hyper Monetary Inflation. Seventeen Central Banks have devalued their Currencies in Recent Months.

Result: We are headed toward Stagflation.

5) Central Bankersare losing control

— Abenomics has not generated a Japanese recovery

— Nor has Fed QE generated a Robust U.S. Recovery.

— Indeed the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate is at record lows and Wage Growth is Tepid.

— And the entire Eurozone is looking none to Healthy Either. — Unemployment is at record highs and increasing, and the Structural Problems of the Peripheral Countries have not been solved.

— And the Eurozone and USA are increasingly flooded with highly economically dependent, low-skilled immigrants, an increasing net economic drain (over $6 Trillion Net Cost for the next decade potentially — Rector, Heritage Fdn). Mass Immigration arguably increases GDP but surely decreases per capita GDP. And per capita GDP is the proper measure of the Economic Wealth of the Citizenry. Thus, stopping Mass Immigration is essential to Economic Health (see carryingcapacity.org).

6) International Debt is up $57 Trillion over what it was in 2007, just before the Market Crash.

— And Massive and increasing Sovereign Debts can never be repaid, without dramatic Currency Devaluation.

As to the Markets themselves, Markets Transaction Volumes are generally decreasing, and Insider Selling is generally increasing.

All of the above are Bearish Indicators reflected in the Technicals.

Specifically, for example, Jaws of Death and seven Hindenburg Omen observations since January 2015 indicate a Bearish Outlook for Equities going forward.

Indeed, Deepcaster’s evaluation of the Fundamentals, Technical and Interventionals led us to forecast the 2008 Market Crash with profitable results. (See Note 1) In light of the foregoing, Deepcaster has recently Forecast opportunities for Profit and Wealth Protection and made Buy Recommendations.

In sum, we have increasing Economic Deflation which has been created in large part generated by years of Fed-led Central Bank Monetary Inflation. Even China recently acknowledged Deflation and opted for easier credit.

7) That is, these years of excesses of Monetary Inflation (to protect the profits of The Fed’s and other Central Banks’ Mega-Bank Shareholders/Clients).

Indeed, the Inventor of QE, Richard Werner (economics professor as University of Southampton) says

“ … It’s EASY to Create a Full-Blown Recovery, But Central Banks Chose to Make Banksters Rich Instead …

“The central Banks have twisted the whole concept of easing … pretending that they’re trying to help the economy, when they’re doing something else entirely.

“Credit should be extended to the productive economy [but under Fed QE Policy is not being – Ed.] — businesses which create goods and services and not to financial speculators or high levels of consumer debt. Extending credit to small businesses … creates prosperity; lending to financial speculators only leads to economic instability and soaring inequality; and when too high a percentage of lending goes to luxury consumer consumption, it’s bad for the economy.”

“ QE Inventor: It’s EASY to Create a Full-Blown Recovery, But Central Banks Chose to Make Banksters Rich Instead,” Richard Werner, via ZeroHedge

QE has been Capital Destructive, and helpful only to Mega Banks

— the more Fiat Currency Units printed the less each Unit is Worth in Purchasing Power and Wealth Preservation terms thus we see the consequence – Economic Deflation around the World.

And worse, the repeated rounds of Monetary Inflation are likely sooner rather than later lead to Hyper-Price Inflation. Result: Stagflation, the worst of both worlds.

8) The Gap between 5 Year yields on U.S. TIPS and Comparable Maturity U.S. Debt … is a measure of Inflation Expectations over the life of the Securities.

As of the beginning of March 2015, this gap widened the most in 3 weeks. A whiff of Price inflation is already in the Air.

Not unexpected in our view. For months we have noted that we are in a phase of Economic Deflation (which will continue for months) and ongoing Central Bank Monetary Hyperinflation which will lead to Price Inflation.

Indeed, though this Price Inflation is already reflected already in U.S. Food, Housing and Medical Care Costs (CPI at 7.50% per Shadowstats) the Official BLS Numbers have not yet reflected that. But they will. Again, we are headed into a period of Stagflation.

This will have dramatic, long-term consequences for the U.S. $ and Treasury Securities and certain other Fiat Currencies.

9) Important to reiterate that WTI Crude Prices, and other Key Commodities and Securities, are highly correlated to the $US — Dollar Up, Crude Down; Dollar Down, Crude Up.

Indeed, increasing U.S. $ Strength over the last few months explains much of the recent Crude Oil Price Decline when viewed in $US Terms.

Also, the very recent slight recovery in the WTI Crude Price to over $50 is responsive to Geopolitical Threats and Realities (e.g., recent Attacks on Oil Facilities/Production in Libya) and the rapid decrease in drilling commitments as reflected in the Decline in Rig Counts . And the continuing modest, albeit fitful, Rally in the Equities Markets helps the oil price as does the rather smallish and decreasing rate of build in the above-ground surplus at Cushing, Oklahoma.

Regarding Gold, until its March 6 Takedown, it has shown remarkable resilience around $1200 and Silver in the mid-$16 range, in spite of recent $US Strength, a very Bullish sign.

Indeed, Asian and Safe Haven buying has kicked in.

An Excellent Buying Opportunity Knocks!

For the middle and long-term (i.e., mid 2015 & Beyond), given the USA’s Massive and increasing $18 Trillion National Debt and over $100 Trillion Downstream Unfunded Liabilities and The Feds $4 Trillion Balance Sheet, the $US is Structurally Impaired (as are U.S. Treasuries) and doomed eventually to fail and lose World’s Reserve Currency Status. Great Profits will be made if one shorts the $US and U.S. Treasuries at the right time. (Not yet!) We aim to forecast that Timing of the $US and Treasuries Bubble Bursting as we already have successfully forecast the timing of Market and Economic Mega-Events. (See Note 2)

Going forward, consider as well, the ongoing increasing use of currencies other than the $US in International Transactions could spell a Sooner Doom for the $US (as World Reserve Currency, especially if increased significant Volumes of Crude Oil begin to be traded for Non $US Currencies. The West is driving Russia into the hands of China, and this is Bad News for the $US and Western economies.

As a consequence of all the foregoing, Deepcaster has recently forecast when The Fed will have to start Printing QE again to boost the Equities Markets (which will have fallen by then on weak fundamentals). Ultimately, at some point after that, the Chinese will likely de-peg the Yuan from its $US trading range, and the Yuan (Gold-backed!), or a Yuan/BRICS Creation, will then be the World’s Reserve Currency.

In sum, the World Economy is slowing/deflating and the Central Banks (except Swiss) are attempting to keep it afloat for a while, by competitively devaluing their currencies (i.e., Monetary Inflation), — the Currency Wars about which we have been writing a trend which cannot continue indefinitely, and will ultimately fail because it is a race to the bottom which no country can win. We reiterate, with both Canada and Denmark, bringing to 17 the number of countries which have cut rates and debased their currencies as of this January 2015 – the Currency Wars intensify and will continue to intensify.

The Fundamental Problem is too much QE and debt worldwide — Global Debt is up $57 Trillion! since 2007, just before the Financial Crisis. Japan’s Debt is over 200% of GDP. And China’s Debt has quadrupled since 2007! with much of that money going into now unused infrastructure, i.e., the famous empty cities. These debts can never be repaid under current and likely prospective economic circumstances.

Very long-term and when the $US Dramatically Tanks, the Precious Metals will Soar and Western Equities Markets Crash. This scenario could possibly launch at any time (but is probably still a number of months away), on Black Swan Geopolitical Events. This $US Crash will shake Economies and Markets to the core, as the Economy transitions to a Yuan/BRICS based Gold-Backed World Reserve Currency. The Swiss have recently established a Yuan/Swiss Franc swap facility in Switzerland.

And when the $US Tanks, that will also be accompanied by a loss of credibility of U.S. Treasuries as a store of wealth soon after. Thus they will tank too … ending in “a very bad way” according to Investment Legend, Julian Robertson, with whom Deepcaster agrees. Excess Debt and Fed and other Central Bank Monetary inflation via QE et al will have taken their toll.

All the foregoing provides Great Profit Opportunities for the prepared and Wealth Destruction for the unprepared.

 

Note 1: * We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s July, 2014 Letter entitled "Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention" in the ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation, and manipulation in other Markets. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 2: Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in recent months in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios*

  • 45% Profit on a Currency Double Short ETF on January 22, 2015 after just 9 months (i.e., about 59% Annualized)
  • 23% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on January 6, 2015 after just 119 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 85% Profit on a REIT on December 31, 2014 after just three years (i.e., about 25% Annualized)
  • 105% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on October 15, 2014 after just 36 days (i.e., about 1090% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 10, 2014 after just 2 days (i.e., about 12,275% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 1, 2014 after just 8 days (i.e., about 3215% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on Double Short Euro Call on August 6, 2014 after just 106 days (i.e., about 200% Annualized)
  • 65% Profit on Energy Storage & Management Company on July7 15, 2014 after just 342 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 95% Profit on Crude Oil Call on June 11, 2014 after just 73 days (i.e., about 470% Annualized)

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.


Shadow of Truth - Our Deteriorating Economy

Posted by: RoryTDC

Tagged in: Untagged 

RoryTDC

As we progress through the week the economic noise is subsiding. The damage was done earlier in the week and the Federal Reserve has spent most of its time attempting to spread the word about raising interest rates. The Federal Reserve can NEVER raise interest rates, as the moment they do the dollar will sell off and implode. Game over. So, whenever you hear Janet Yellen discussing raising interest this is merely an attempt to keep the ponzi going and the dollar propped up.

 

Speaking of Federal Reserve chairs, Alan Greenspan is out making another attempt at saving his legacy. I believe he is another agent sent out in to the markets, the same as Jim Rickards, to tell the people their is a collapse in the making. The elite believe it to be in poor taste to not tell the serfs what is going to happen. They need agents in order to get their message out and I believe these two men serve that purpose.

 

Continue Reading and Watch Video>>> http://thedailycoin.org/?p=20254


Shadow of Truth - End of the War Dollar

Posted by: RoryTDC

Tagged in: Untagged 

RoryTDC

The past several years I have heard the US dollar being referred to as the "petro-dollar" insinuating that oil is actually what backs the dollar. Close, but not exactly accurate. What backs the US dollar is war. The military is the backing force for the US dollar. Saddam Hussein and Moammar Gadhafi are prime examples of what happens if you decide exchanging your oil for something other than US dollars is a good idea. It's not going to happen. Tomahawk missiles for everyone!! 110 Tomahawk missiles were dropped on Libya in one day. 110. 

 

<a href="http://thedailycoin.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ORD_BGM-109_Tomahawk_Block_IV_Cutaway_lg.gif"><img src="http://thedailycoin.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ORD_BGM-109_Tomahawk_Block_IV_Cutaway_lg-300x234.gif" alt="war DEFENSE INDUSTRY DAILY" width="300" height="234" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-19757" /></a>

<a href="http://media.defenceindustrydaily.com/images/ORD_BGM-109_Tomahawk_Block_IV_Cutaway_lg.gif">image source</a>

 

We take a look at the new SWIFT system launched, well ahead of time, by Russia and the impact that it will have on the war-dollar. With China already applying pressure to the war-dollar via the direct currency swaps, this new system will only make the war-dollar less desirable on the global stage. 

 

Several economic indicators hit the wire today, not a single piece of good economic information was released. The housing market continues it's slide south, the west coast longshoreman's strike continues and, of course, gold and silver were both monkey-hammered. But what would you expect with such great economic news flowing from the four corners of the United States.

 

<iframe width="350" height="240" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CnPwxT_hDw8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


Shadow of Truth - End of the War Dollar

Posted by: RoryTDC

Tagged in: Untagged 

RoryTDC

The past several years I have heard the US dollar being referred to as the "petro-dollar" insinuating that oil is actually what backs the dollar. Close, but not exactly accurate. What backs the US dollar is war. The military is the backing force for the US dollar. Saddam Hussein and Moammar Gadhafi are prime examples of what happens if you decide exchanging your oil for something other than US dollars is a good idea. It's not going to happen. Tomahawk missiles for everyone!! 110 Tomahawk missiles were dropped on Libya in one day. 110. 

 

<a href="http://thedailycoin.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ORD_BGM-109_Tomahawk_Block_IV_Cutaway_lg.gif"><img src="http://thedailycoin.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ORD_BGM-109_Tomahawk_Block_IV_Cutaway_lg-300x234.gif" alt="war DEFENSE INDUSTRY DAILY" width="300" height="234" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-19757" /></a>

<a href="http://media.defenceindustrydaily.com/images/ORD_BGM-109_Tomahawk_Block_IV_Cutaway_lg.gif">image source</a>

 

We take a look at the new SWIFT system launched, well ahead of time, by Russia and the impact that it will have on the war-dollar. With China already applying pressure to the war-dollar via the direct currency swaps, this new system will only make the war-dollar less desirable on the global stage. 

 

Several economic indicators hit the wire today, not a single piece of good economic information was released. The housing market continues it's slide south, the west coast longshoreman's strike continues and, of course, gold and silver were both monkey-hammered. But what would you expect with such great economic news flowing from the four corners of the United States.

 

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Winning Strategies for 2015

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

Not since The Great Depression have there been such Formidable Challenges to those who wish to Profit and Protect their Wealth.

If it were not clear before 2008, the Fall, 2008 Markets Crash, Credit Freeze, and Financial Institutions Collapse and subsequent unprecedented Central Bank Interventions, and ongoing Economic Difficulties all make it clear, that we have entered into a New High Risk Era in the Economy and Markets. And the “Mixed” (at best) Fundamentals, and Key Technicals (e.g., repeated recent Hindenberg Omens) confirm that.

Several Time-honored Investment Strategies and Techniques have been largely Discredited and Serious New Risks, including The Threats of another Market Meltdown and Hyperinflation — i.e., Major Central Banks’ ongoing Competitive Monetary Inflation leading eventually to Price Inflation — abound. In fact, we already see Price Inflation in Food, Housing and Medical Care Costs.

Indeed, given the ongoing, intensifying EconomicDeflation (as we write in January, 2015), it increasingly appears that we are headed into a Stagflationary World — a Stagnant or Contracting Economy with eventual and increasing Price Inflation.

This Transition requires discarding some strategies, modifying others and adopting some new ones. For example, the formerly widely accepted “Rule” of “Buy and Hold” for the long Term is in the process of being discredited.

As we write, the Major Equities Markets are Trading around their all-time Nominal highs — but also have caused typical “Buy and Hold” for-the-long-term Investors to Lose Purchasing Power in the past decade, at least 30% for those in certain Sectors, when adjusted for Real Price Inflation (Official Statistics are often Bogus, see Shadowstats Note 1 below).

The 2000-2002 Internet Bubble Burst, and the Housing/Equities Bubble Burst of 2008-2009 should have provided Sufficient Remedial “Education” to “Buy and Hold” Devotees…. And they are about to get “educated” again in the next few months. The essential corollary to these object lessons is that you do not have profits unless you take them.

But such Challenges Provide Great Opportunities for Profit , while at the same time Require Great Vigilance to Avoid Wealth Destruction. In view of the aforementioned, consider the following Strategies

1) “Beta — the Tendency of a security’s return to respond to swings in the Market” Investopedia.

One Important Strategy is first to consider “Beta” (before buying a Security based on its Alpha Potential) by Investing or Speculating to achieve Profit from Broad Market or Sector Trends, not only from Uptrends but also from Downtrends. Consider Beta above all, because even the strongest individual Securities and their underlying businesses are often vulnerable to Equities Market Crashes. The Evidence indicates that Beta-Followers perform better than mere Alpha-Seekers. Virtually all Securities have some degree of Beta and those who disregard it do so at their peril.

Even so, of course, one should also seek Alpha (Potential Appreciation or Depreciation of Individual Securities) in addition to Beta with specific Selections which we expect to Rise or Fall more than the Rise or Fall of any particular Sector. And this applies to Commodities investing as well.

2) As well, we have periodically recommended seeking Profits via Short Positions mainly via Exchange Traded Fund including leveraged ETFs. Why not Profit when Markets Fall as well as when they rise? There are several Good Reasons to do so. Several of Deepcaster’s Recommendations did quite well in the 2008-2009 Crash, (Note 2 below re Mega-Bank Cartel) when “Buy and Hold” Investors were losing their shirts.

It is essential to invest and speculate on the short side (usually using ETFs or Options) as well as on the long side. We forecast that 2015 will once again prove this “rule.”

3) Divide Assets among Four Categories:

i) Fortress Assets — meant to be held for several months or a few years only, with, however, a very few exceptions (e.g., Gold, Productive Farmland). We reiterate: Those who do not take Profit do not Profit;

ii) High Yield Assets (but the Total Return must exceed Real Inflation [See Note 1]);

iii) Speculation both on the long and short side; and

iv) Liquid Assets e.g., Cash in Non-Devaluing Currencies (e.g., Swiss Francs).

Thus the Key to Profit and Wealth Protection is to trade in and out of any or all of these at the right time. For example, for our Fortress Assets Value Portfolio, we tend to favor (but not exclusively) Investments at the right time in Real Assets (such as Agricultural products in relatively inelastic Demand) as opposed to Financial Assets (See our “Opportunities to Profitably Escape Paper “Wealth” into 2011” (10/07/10) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ Cache) which can suffer greatly in Market Crashes. But Financial Assets can perform quite well in Bull Markets.

4) The Caveat “at the right time,” is crucially important. Because as the 2012-2015 Bearish Commodities Period has shown, Real Assets (e.g., Commodities) can and do go through Bearish as well as Bullish Cycles. (Yet another reason that Investors who Buy and Hold for Many Years or Decades, can and do get wiped out.)

Indeed, as we write, in January 2015, the Markets are undergoing yet another Major Trend Transition in which several heretofore Bullish Sectors are moving into a Bearish Mode, and a Few from Bearish into Bullish Mode. The Crucial Key is to do ongoing Sector by Sector analysis as we do when we identify these in our Sector Forecasts and make Buy Recommendations as in our January Letter and Alerts recently posted at Deepcaster.com.

This “Major Trend Transition” is due in large part to the fact that the Economy is moving into Stagflation — Stagnant or Contracting (e.g., Eurozone and Japan) Economies coupled with ongoing and increasing Monetary Inflation (via the Central Banks, e.g., the ECB and Japan) — which will increasingly begin to result in Key Sector Price Inflation, and already has in some Sectors.

Indeed, Major Central Banks Massive Intensifying Printing of Fiat Currency increasingly heightens the Risk of Hyperinflation as well as Economic Stagnation, because it is Capital-Destructive — as Central Banks print more and more, they devalue what was heretofore a Store of Wealth in a Currency. This is the Great Defect of Fiat Currencies. Thus, the World of Financial Assets is increasingly fraught with Danger for Investors, as the Market Crash of the Fall, 2008, and the intensifying Economic and Financial Crises around the World attest.

5) Interventions — Stay apprised of ongoing and intensifying Central Bank and Governmental Market Interventions and Manipulations. As many of our Articles (and increasing numbers of Investment Analysts) demonstrate, the Private For-Profit Fed is the lead Actor of a Cartel (Note 2) of Central Bankers and Agents and Allies is engaged in Manipulation of a Variety of Markets, and especially in ongoing suppression of Gold and Silver Prices, because heightened Investor Interest in these Precious Monetary Metals would tend to devalue and delegitimize the Central Bankers Treasury Securities and Fiat Currencies. (See Note 2.)

These Interventions Require that, to the extent possible, Investors and Speculators track The Interventionals, as well as the Fundamentals and Technicals as Deepcaster does. Attention to all these has facilitated Recent Profits Taken (Note 3). And Attention to all three has also enabled our Forecasts for 2015 laid out in our January 2015 Letter in ‘Latest Letters and Archives’ at Deepcaster.com.

In order to adequately track the Interventionals, it is essential to consult Independent Information Sources since much of the Mainstream Media either Spin, or Distort, or entirely Black-out Information Crucial to both Investors and Traders.

In sum, success in 2015 will require that Speculators and Investors be well and broadly educated and nimble, very nimble.

Note 1: Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported January 16, 2015
1.32%     /    9.02%

U.S. Unemployment reported January 9, 2015
5.56%     /     23.0%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported December 23, 2014
2.70%        /     -1.73%

U.S. M3 reported January 23, 2015 (Month of December, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /   5.03% (i.e., total M3 Now at $16.303 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s July, 2014 Letter entitled "Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention" in the ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation, and manipulation in other Markets. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 3: Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in recent months in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios*

  • 45% Profit on a Double Currency Short ETF on January 22, 2015 after just 9 months (i.e., about 59% Annualized)
  • 23% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on January 6, 2015 after just 119 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 85% Profit on a REIT on December 31, 2014 after just three years (i.e., about 25% Annualized)
  • 105% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on October 15, 2014 after just 36 days (i.e., about 1090% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 10, 2014 after just 2 days (i.e., about 12,275% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 1, 2014 after just 8 days (i.e., about 3215% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on Double Short Euro Call on August 6, 2014 after just 106 days (i.e., about 200% Annualized)
  • 65% Profit on Energy Storage & Management Company on July7 15, 2014 after just 342 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 95% Profit on Crude Oil Call on June 11, 2014 after just 73 days (i.e., about 470% Annualized)

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.

 


 

“The Fed is in total denial…(it) hasn’t learned the lessons of what it put the world through a decade ago.”

Stephen Roach, via CNBC, 01/09/2015

"When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes. The good times are over."

Bill Gross, Founder & former CEO, PIMCO

We focus here on Key Profit Opportunities, Threats and possible Catastrophes for 2015, few, if any, of which you are likely to hear about from the Main Stream Media (MSM), before they occur because the MSM are beholden to the Powers-that-Be.

1) Contrary to MSM spin, the Middle Class in the U.S. and Eurozone and Japan has been and will increasingly suffer jobs loss and wage stagnation, thus constraining consumer spending — 70% of the U.S. Economy, for example. Official Statistics are Bogus. Thus the economic Non-Recovery will Continue and worsen (see Note 1 – Shadowstats). The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate is at record lows — a 38 year record of 92.9 Million Americans are not in the Labor Force. The Strong U.S. Bond Market is signaling trouble ahead. If the Economy were really recovering Bonds would be weaker and Market Interest Rates much higher.

2) QE will continue in Japan, intensify in Europe and begin again in the USA withQE5 likely beginning before 2015 ends — All to continue to artificially inflate Asset Prices (e.g., Equities) and keep the Globalist Mega-Banks (some of whom are owners of the private-for-profit U.S. Fed) Profitable. Of course, none of this helps the Middle Class Workers/Savers or Retirees whose incomes are mainly reliant on Good Jobs or Low Unemployment and/or interest income from savings.

3) QE will likely be ineffective (at best) in Japan and indeed, it is more likely than not the Japanese Economy will collapse into the Pit of Extreme Economic Deflation/Depression, sending shockwaves through Markets around the World.

4) Increasing Social Strife around the World will begin to significantly affect the Markets. A collapsing Economy in Japan, increasing Under- and Unemployment in the Eurozone and USA and clashes between Obama and the Congress in the U.S. and Debt Defaults in the Eurozone and U.S. will all take their Toll.

5) Interest Rates may begin to rise (but likely slowly) so Sectors which rely on Debt Financing — e.g., Utilities, MLPs and smaller relatively undercapitalized Energy Producers — will not do well (indeed, some will collapse) and China will take a hit from their over-extended Shadow Banking System, as will other over-indebted Sovereigns.

6) Indeed — we are moving into a period of increasing visibility for the Intensifying International Debt Crisis. As rates rise, (beginning later in 2015 but no later than early 2016) not only will businesses and individuals suffer, but also over-indebted Sovereigns who will have to pay higher interest rates. And not just the Peripheral Sovereigns in Europe, but also the U.S. which has $18 Trillion in Debt and over $120 Trillion in Downstream Unfunded Liabilities (Social Security, Medicare etc.) Result: The U.S. Dollar, first, (probably beginning later in 2015) and then the U.S. Bond Market will eventually crash.

7) Central Banks will engage in ever-more QE, i.e., Monetary Inflation, and this will increasingly show up in Price Inflation and then Price Hyperinflation. Indeed, Consumers are already seeing Price Inflation in Food, Medical Care and Housing. (See Note 1)

8) All the above will result in the condition known as Severe Stagflation — Stagnant or contracting Economies and Price Inflation and then Price Hyperinflation. Dramatically increased Sovereign and other Debt Loads have not increased GDP. Consider that for every $ of Debt Added Just After WWII, $2.41 of GDP were added but for every $ added in the late 70s, and early 80s, only 41 cents of GDP was added and for every $ of Debt added today, only 3 cents GDP is added. In sum, QE/Debt increase does not sustainably boost Economic Growth.

9) Yes, the Credit/Debt Crisis is Real and Not Sustainable — for every $ of Economic Growth, Banks have created $30 of Credit/Debt. This Massive Bond/Debt Bubble will likely Catastrophically burst in 2015-2016 with the Accompanying Defaults or Write Offs, and Counterparty Failures in Major Markets.

The Entire Energy industry has been hit hard by the Oil Price Decline. This will cause increased unemployment and reduced corporate earnings which will Tsunami into the entire economy making the Non-Recovery Worse than it already is.

And the Weak Players in the Energy Industry will Default on their Debts and cause a similar ripple effect through the Banking Industry and entire Economy.

Consider that Crude Prices at or below $60 not only puts poorly capitalized frackers out of business but also causes in the tsunami effect of prospective or, in some cases, actual, defaults on Energy loans (many of which are highly leveraged to Asset Bases) and thus causes defaults on Related highly leveraged Derivatives. And all this will diminish Production, and thus will increase prices again in a few months.

The Counterparty Failure Risk in Financial Markets has thus increased dramatically, and will not diminish any time soon, and will Tsunami through the economy and financial Markets.

And once that risk begins to imperil Non-Energy Sectors, Corporate Debt Interest Rates will Skyrocket and it will be time for the Equities Markets to seriously fall, again.

In addition, there are many Black and Red Swans extant which could/will precipitate a Greater launch down this year at any time — War, Major Sovereign Defaults, Worse Economic Numbers — the list is too long to mention all.

10) Most of the Foregoing Financial “Assets” are leveraged more unsustainably and dangerously by the over $700 Trillion plus in Derivatives as reported by the Central Bankers’ Bank, the BIS. $700 Trillion is about 7 times Global GDP.

For the middle and long-term (i.e., mid 2015 & Beyond), given the USA’s Massive and increasing $18 Trillion National Debt and over $100 Trillion Downstream Unfunded Liabilities and The Feds $4 Trillion Balance Sheet, the $US is Structurally Impaired (as are U.S. Treasuries) and doomed to fall and lose World’s Reserve Currency Status, eventually. Great Profits will be made if one shorts the $US and U.S. Treasuries and the Equities Markets at the right time. We aim to forecast that Timing as we successfully did prior to the 2008 Crash. Our forecasts were facilitated by focusing on Interventions of The Cartel of Mega-Banks as well as Fundamentals and Technicals (see Note 2). Stay tuned.

Consider as well, the ongoing increasing use of currencies other than the $US in International Transactions could spell a Sooner Doom for the $US (as World Reserve Currency, especially if increased significant Volumes of Crude Oil begin to be traded for Non $US Currencies. The West is driving Russia into the hands of China, and this is Bad News for the $US and Western economies.

And when the $US Dramatically Tanks, the Precious Metals will Soar and Western Equities Markets Crash. This scenario could possibly launch at any time (but is probably still a few months away), on Black Swan Geopolitical Events. This $US Crash will shake Economies and Markets to the core, as the Economy transitions to a Yuan/BRICS based Gold Backed World Reserve Currency.

And when the $US Tanks, that will also be accompanied by a loss of credibility of U.S. Treasuries as a store of wealth soon after. Thus they will tank too … ending in “a very bad way” according to Investment Legend, Julian Robertson, with whom Deepcaster agrees.

11) The Russia-China Axis is Strengthening, with Both Countries buying increasing amounts of Physical Gold. Result: sometime in the next very few years, the New World Reserve Currency will be the Chinese/BRICS Gold Backed Yuan or Gold-backed BRICS Notes. The view that the New World Reserve Currency will be IMF SDRs is Wrong. IMF SDRs are just another Fiat Currency doomed to fail.

12) The Flight from the $US as World Reserve Currency (catalyzed mainly by Fed/Keynesian Policy!) is continuing with China making Bilateral Currency Swap Deals with a number of leading Nations thus bypassing the $US. Eventually this will greatly diminish the Standard of living in the USA and other $US-dependent Nations. The Fiat Euro/Eurozone will take a Huge Hit Also. Indeed, there is a distinct possibility the Eurozone Currency Union will disintegrate.

13) The foregoing Developments/Trends can/will be exacerbated/initiated by Trigger Events some of which May be

  • Greece and/or Portugal and/or Spain Defaults/leaves Eurozone
  • Other Peripheral Countries Default
  • Venezuela and/or Nigeria default due to low Oil Prices
  • The LBMA is unable to Deliver Physical Gold and/or Silver
  • War intensifies in the Mideast and/or Ukraine or breaks out elsewhere

14) Mainstream Keynesian Economists and those governments who follow their line, typically aim for the Wrong Targetincreased aggregate GDP Growth, when they should be aiming for greater GDP per capita in a “Steady State” Economy (see the Work of Economist Herman Daly). This Keynesian view leads to a variety of flawed policies including the one that assumes that population growth is Good-in-itself. In the U.S. and Eurozone, for example, this has led to the Counterproductive Policy which encourages Mass Immigration. In fact this Policy results in larger and larger social-welfare-Dependent Populations, and the Diversity it brings generates loss of Social Cohesion. And this Mass Immigration Decreases Job Opportunities and Wages for the Native-born ("Foreign-born employment has increased by 1,028,000, while the number of native-born Americans working has decreased by 780,000" Rubenstein, vDare.com, 11/8/14) in the receiving Societies. Highly selective and extremely limited immigration creates better results Economically and Socially. (See the non-profit www.carryingcapacity.org)

15) But all of the foregoing will lead to Opportunities to Profit and Protect Wealth. Consider

Nowhere in the MSM for example do we find forecasts that two Key Assets will skyrocket in Price very soon — but Deepcaster forecasts which ones in our January, 2015 Letter and our Forecasts and our Successful Buy Recommendations are informed by our attention to Under and Unreported News (see Note 3).

And nowhere in the MSM do we find Forecasts of a Great Reversal in two other Key Assets Sectors, but we tell you in our January Letter.

And we Forecast a Very Great Crash in one Sector — and name names of two very popular Stocks which should take a Very Big Hit.

Conclusion : The Equities Market will suffer at least one Major Crash (more than 15%) and at least one Minor Crash (appx 10%) in 2015.

(In sum, essential to all the Foregoing Forecasts, and to Profiting and Wealth Protection is focusing on Under and Unreported News and MSM spin.)

Best regards,

Deepcaster
January 9, 2015

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported December 17, 2014
1.32%     /    9.02%

U.S. Unemployment reported January 9, 2015
5.56%     /     23.0%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported December 23, 2014
2.70%        /     -1.73%

U.S. M3 reported December 15, 2014 (Month of November, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /   4.81% (i.e., total M3 Now at $16.217 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s July, 2014 Letter entitled "Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention" in the ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 3: Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in recent months in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios*

  • 23% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on January 6, 2015 after just 119 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 85% Profit on a REIT on December 31, 2014 after just three years (i.e., about 25% Annualized)
  • 105% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on October 15, 2014 after just 36 days (i.e., about 1090% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 10, 2014 after just 2 days (i.e., about 12,275% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 1, 2014 after just 8 days (i.e., about 3215% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on Double Short Euro Call on August 6, 2014 after just 106 days (i.e., about 200% Annualized)
  • 65% Profit on Energy Storage & Management Company on July7 15, 2014 after just 342 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 95% Profit on Crude Oil Call on June 11, 2014 after just 73 days (i.e., about 470% Annualized)

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.


The real story behind Pearl Harbor

Posted by: ettienn

Tagged in: Untagged 

ettienn

http://jamesperloff.com/2014/11/06/pearl-harbor-roosevelts-911/

 

Check it out.  Very well written and, if true, very insightful.


Profiting from the Inflation/Deflation Puzzle

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

Investors are getting mixed Messages about whether we are facing an Inflationary or Deflationary Future. Answering that question correctly is important both to profitability and protecting wealth.

Major Bankers and some Government Officials Claim they are worried about Deflation.

But rising costs for Health Care, Food and, until recently, Energy, indicate we face an inflationary, and perhaps even a hyperinflationary, future.

Which is it? Inflation or Deflation?

Some sectors have clearly been Deflating in Price in recent months.

— Crude Oil

— Copper

But other Sectors have been Inflating in Price:

— U.S. Equities

— Beef Cattle

— Corn

— Soybeans

— Healthcare

Still, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics claimed that October 2014 U.S. Inflation (CPI-U) is tame at an annual pace of 1.66%.

But, ShadowStats.com pegs Actual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation at an annual 9.38% for the same period.

— And the Biggest Inflation Category of them all — Central Bank Monetary Inflation in all its forms — is roaring ahead. Consider that Japan, China, and the Eurozone are all in the process of devaluing their currencies one way or another

— the ongoing Currency Wars about which we have been writing.

What gives? How can we reconcile Shadowstats U.S. Consumer Price Inflation of 9.38% (clearly correct in our view) with the Clear Price Deflation in other Sectors and Central Bankers complaining they are concerned about Deflation?

Understanding how they are to be properly considered and reconciled provides Great Opportunities for Profit and Wealth Protection going forward.

Failing to Understand and “Reconcile” this Inflation/Deflation Conundrum will create substantial Risk of Loss.

So how are Inflation and Deflation to be Understood and “reconciled”? Nearly two years ago The Bond King, Bill Gross opined

“The future price tag of printing six trillion dollars’ worth of checks comes in the form of inflation and devaluation of currencies either relative to each other, or to commodities in less limitless supply such as oil or gold.  

Zero-bound interest rates, QE maneuvering, and ‘essentially costless’ check writing destroy business models and stunt investment decisions which offer increasingly lower ROIs and ROEs.”

Bill Gross, Founder & formerly Co-CIO, PIMCO, 1/3/2013

Indeed, for several years, Notable Independent Commentators, including Deepcaster, have warned that the Elite Central Banks’ Orgy of Fiat Currency Printing, a la QE etc., would eventually result in Price Inflation. And we reiterate that Warning here.

So it was no surprise to us that The Bond King, Bill Gross formerly of PIMCO, with about $2 Trillion under Management, would finally warn, in his January, 2013 letter to Investors, of Impending Price Inflation in Key Asset Classes. And that Price Inflation is now underway in some Asset Classes but not in others.

Clearly, the Central Banks Hypermonetary Inflation has maintained the Profitability of their Primary Clients (in The Fed’s case, owners) the Mega Banks and elevated Equities Prices.

Case in point — the Uptrending U.S. Equities Chart of S&P Price Inflation since 2009 has almost exactly Tracked the Uptrending Balance Sheet of The Fed.

S&P chart from McClellan Oscilator 

(Thanks to McClellan of McClellan Oscillator Fame for permission to reprint.)

And now that The Fed is “Merely” Repurchasing the same Amount of Treasuries as those which mature, the Equities Markets are Topping! Fancy that!

The Hypermonetary Inflation has created and Sustained the Price Inflation (in U.S. in particular) in Equities.

And Note that the Price Inflation in certain Food Commodities has arguably been more influenced by Traditional Supply and Demand (80 Million more people in the World each Year and many with more disposable Income).

In short, Food Commodities Prices are less susceptible to (but not immune from) the Price Suppression which Major Central Banks have been employing to Suppress Gold and Silver Prices.

On the same principle, the recently Deflating Price of Crude Oil is commonly viewed mainly as a function of a recent (albeit temporary) above ground oversupply, plus reduced Market Expectations of supplies being diminished by War or other Disasters, plus the Saudis desire to maintain Market Share. But, perhaps above all, recently lower Crude Prices are a Result of an Increasingly Strong $US, and related covert efforts by the U.S. et al to punish Russia. Eighty percent of the time, oil prices fall when the $US strengthens and vice versa. (cf. Shadowstats.com)

But consider that Prices for Essential Good and Services — Food, Health Care, Utilities, Housing and, until just recently, Energy — have all been dramatically inflating in price in recent years.

Thus we can see why Shadowstats.com’s calculation of Consumer Price Inflation 9.38% is accurate.

So consider the following which explains why the official U.S. annual inflation rate of 1.66% is well below what most people are experiencing in their current day-to-day living.

Since 1980, the government made numerous changes to the methodology used in calculating CPI inflation, with the effect of significantly reducing reported inflation from what it would have been otherwise. The ShadowStats estimate adds back into current official reporting the inflation that was removed by the government's changes.

This reduction in official CPI inflation reporting of recent decades was a deliberate and successful effort by the U.S. government to cut expenses, by creating artificially low cost-of-living adjustments for programs such as Social Security; and to increase tax revenues, with artificially accelerating upside income-tax-bracket shifts.

As a result, today's official CPI no longer measures Consumer Inflation in a manner that is useful or meaningful to individuals as a guide for setting minimum targets for annual income adjustment or for annual investment returns. Generally not understood by the public, current CPI reporting no longer measures the cost-of-living of maintaining a constant-standard-of-living, and it no longer reflects inflation consistent with out-of-pocket expenses. The specifics of the various CPI understatement issues and ShadowStats alternate-inflation estimates are found in Public Commentary on Inflation Measurement. See also Note 1 below for Real U.S. Economic Statistics per Shadowstats.

— But then why are many Central Bankers and Economists expressing concern about Deflation?

Let's first differentiate clearly between several uses of the “Inflation” and “Deflation” terms, concepts that not always are set forth explicitly when a Market Pundit, Economist or Central Banker expresses concern about Inflation or Deflation. These concepts also may appear, at times, to be contradictory. Generally, Inflation may refer to rising consumer or asset prices, or to increasing money supply growth (other measures have been developed specifically for wholesale pricing measures, economic measures, etc.), while Deflation may refer to falling consumer or asset prices, or to declining money supply growth, etc.

Consumer Inflation reflects changes in the costs of consumer goods and services. Most popularly, it is measured in the United States by a version of the official Consumer Price Index (CPI). ShadowStats offers an alternate consumer inflation measure.

Asset Inflation reflects that general appreciation or depreciation of a specific class of assets, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, housing, etc. As an example of potential inconsistencies, an asset deflation, such as a collapsing stock market, is not necessarily inconsistent with rising prices for consumer goods and services or consumer inflation.

Monetary Inflation reflects annual change in the various measures of the money supply, or money in the economy and financial system. Rapidly rising monetary inflation commonly is a direct causal factor in asset inflation, specifically equity markets. The relationship of money growth with consumer inflation is positive, but it is not always as obvious as it should be, due to significant differences in the definitions and estimations of consumer inflation, inflation for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP and the various measures of money supply.

— But, again, why are many Central Bankers and Economists expressing concern about Deflation?

— The big Deflation concern leading into the crisis of 2008 was in terms of a possible failure in the banking system, with a crash in the money supply as well as in consumer and asset prices, effectively a 1930s-style depression and deflation. A large number of banks failed in the early-1930s, depositors lost their assets, the money supply crashed, consumer and prices collapsed along with the economy. In 2008, all deposits were guaranteed and extraordinary efforts were undertaken to prop both the U.S. and global banking systems.

— Although many of the 2008 concerns, economic and financial instabilities persist, (indeed the Monetary Inflation Bubble now being created by The Fed and other Central Banks is Great Cause for Concern) much of that current Asset Deflation concerns stem from the fact that Major Economies — China, the Eurozone, the U.S. — are slowing, i.e., experiencing Economic Deflation as it were.

For another thing, in the realm of Monetary Inflation, the Velocity of Money (the annual turnover the money supply in the broad economy) is at record lows — indeed, at Pre-Depression levels.

In a related area, the Mega Banks are not lending much to “Main Street” preferring to keep Reserves overnight at The Fed, where they can earn 25 BPS worth of Easy Money for doing Nothing.

But The Main Reason for concern about the Deflation in Economic Activity is that Major Economies, the U.S. included, have never come out of Recession, and indeed are slowing and in some cases contracting. And this Economic Malaise is Worsening in all Major Economies notwithstanding the Main Stream Media Hype that the U.S. is recovering. This is the Deflation about which the Central Banks and Economists worry.

— In a word, what we now have is Worsening STAGFLATION. Stagnant and Worsening (i.e., Deflating) Economies and Inflating Prices of many Essential Goods and Services to the Consumer. There is little the Central Banks can do to stimulate economy activity, but they can create unhealthy inflation and increasingly unstable financial markets—the worst of all worlds, and that is what they are doing in their attempt to prop up the Banks, above all.

— Where Central Banks talk of creating inflation with their massive easings, it is first, not an consumer inflation created by a sudden new burst of economic activity, which would be a relatively positive development (there is little the Central Banks can do to stimulate economic demand). Rather it creates a cost-push commodity-based inflation from a weakened domestic currency. Until recently, a deliberately debased U.S. dollar had triggered higher oil and gasoline prices, spiking domestic consumer prices in energy and other categories. In sum, even official U.S. consumer inflation numbers would begin to soar, if the current $US strength should reverse into a tumble.

Second, continued Central Bank pumping up of money stocks is a very deliberate effort to fuel a continuing rise in the value of equity assets, and support Bank Profits.

— By comparison, consider the coincident and deteriorating Stagflation conditions — look at the U.S., for example, where the recent lousy Consumer Confidence Numbers reflect this Reality on “Main Street.”

Also in the U.S., New Home Sales Figures were revised Lower in the third Quarter, consistent with Historical Recessions and Durable Goods Orders are on track for Flat-to-Down Activity for Fourth Quarter 2014. (cf. Shadowstats.com)

Couple that with the fact that Western Europe and the U.S. are in the process of inundating themselves with Masses of largely Dependent Immigrants; thus the U.S. and Eurozone’s Economic Future is Darkening.

For example, consider the Employment Environment for Millions of Unemployed and underemployed Americans — just since July 2014 foreign-born employment increased by 1,028,000, while native-born employment decreased by 780,000 (Rubenstein, VDare.com).

Harvard Prof. George Borjas estimates that the U.S.A.’s CURRENT high immigration — legal (over One Million per Year) and illegal — results in a $402 Billion Wage Loss for competing American Workers, annually! Mass immigration depresses Wages and Displaces Americans.

And consider that Legal and Illegal Immigrant families account for 42% of the growth in Medicaid Costs since 2011. (cis.org) And that is no wonder because recent Migrants are bringing a whole panoply of Disease as Dr. Marc Siegel describes

“... Since illegal immigrants who enter the US are not prescreened in any way, many carry disease... ten to twenty-five percent of the immigrants (in Texas and Arizona) have Scabies, a highly contagious intensely itchy rash.... Already drug-resistant tuberculosis is spreading in Texas... Dengue Fever... is now spreading from the Illegal Immigrants into Texas and Arizona... Measles and Chickenpox are now emerging among the unvaccinated immigrants... now Swine Flu has appeared....”

Marc Siegel MD, Fox News, June, 2014

And we might add that the Medical Evidence indicates that the Enterovirus which has killed seven and sickened thousands of American children is being brought in by these Immigrants.

Given the promise of Free Medical Care and Education and other free (i.e., taxpayer funded) Benefits. It is no wonder that over 36% of all legal (over one Million per year) and illegal immigrants to the U.S. use one or more welfare programs (cis.org).

And the Complaints from some High-Tech Firms that there are not enough H(1b) Visas available for STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) Workers rings hollow when High-Tech has(is) laid off tens of thousands of American High-Tech Workers (cf. Microsoft & HP layoffs, e.g.).

And the Complaints from some High-Tech Firms that there are not enough H(1b) Visas available for STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) Workers rings hollow when High-Tech has(is) laid off tens of thousands of American High-Tech Workers (cf. Microsoft & HP layoffs, e.g.).

Thus it is no surprise that the Basic Reality of the Relationship between Population Growth and GDP is that Population Growth typically increases Aggregate GDP but reduces Per Capita GDP.

Couple the Foregoing with ongoing Central Bank Interventions to artificially boost Equity Prices, Support the Mega-Banks (in The private for-profit Fed’s case, including its own shareholders!) and suppress the Prices of Gold and Silver and you have Dangerous Interventions — the Bubbles that Deepcaster and other independent Analysts have been complaining about for years. Indeed, more recently, even Main Stream Investment Managers have recognized the Dangers.

“The investment recommendations made by many financial commentators are now dominated by cross-asset class relative valuation rather than the fundamentals of the investment itself….

“This is an understandable approach as unusual central bank activism has artificially elevated certain asset prices. Yet the dominance of this increasingly popular advice comes with potential risks that need to be well understood and well managed. [Note El-Erian’s reference to “certain” asset classes. — Ed.]

Several asset classes now have highly manipulated prices due to experimental central bank activities, both actual and signaled. The more this happens, the more investors come under pressure to migrate to higher risk investments in search of returns….

“Just a few weeks ago the Federal Reserve announced it is targeting a further $1 trillion in asset purchases in 2013, representing a third of its existing balance sheet. Other central banks -- particularly the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank -- are also expected to expand their balance sheets again in the months ahead….

“There is a limit to how far central banks can divorce prices from fundamentals….at some point, and it is hard to tell when exactly, the private sector will increasingly refuse to engage in situations deemed excessively artificial and overly rigged….

“Have no doubt: Central banks are both referees and players in today's markets. With 2013 starting with so many liquidity-induced deviations, investors would be well advised to take greater care when pursuing opportunities that rely mainly on the ‘central bank put.’” (emphasis added)

“Beware the ‘Central Bank Put’,” Mohamed El-Erian, 01/07/13 Chief Executive and co-Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO

El-Erian is Spot-On correct about the Risks Associated with Investment in “Highly Manipulated Asset Classes, which is why Deepcaster’s portfolio Recommendations aim both to Minimize Risk from and to Profit from, these and others by forecasting Timing and providing Interventional Analyses. (See Notes 2, 3, 4 and 5)

Thus the Interventions make certain Assets Classes even more attractive going forward and others more Treacherous.

Thus, it is no surprise that, the Smart Money is responding accordingly, moving Money into Physical (to avoid the Banking System Bubble) Gold and Silver (and Quality Miners), and certain other commodities.

And Hyperstagflation Resistant Agricultural Land and Essential Food Products Companies are seeing Capital Infusions also. No surprise there either.

The Bottom Line: When considering the Inflation/Deflation Puzzle it is Essential to Evaluate these on a Sector by Sector Basis, and to accurately forecast changes in Inflation/Deflation (as the case may be) Realities and Prospects in each Sector over time. And thus this is The Main Project in which Deepcaster is engaged in order to facilitate Profiting and Protecting Wealth.

Best regards,

Deepcaster December 4, 2014

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported November 20, 2014
1.66%     /    9.38%

U.S. Unemployment reported November 7, 2014
5.8%     /     23.0%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported November 25, 2014
2.43%        /     -1.73%

U.S. M3 reported November 15, 2014 (Month of October, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /   4.22% (i.e., total M3 Now at $16.085 Trillion!)

Note 2: Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in recent months in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios*

  • 105% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on October 15, 2014 after just 36 days (i.e., about 1090% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 10, 2014 after just 2 days (i.e., about 12,275% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 1, 2014 after just 8 days (i.e., about 3215% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on Double Short Euro Call on August 6, 2014 after just 106 days (i.e., about 200% Annualized)
  • 65% Profit on Energy Storage & Management Company on July7 15, 2014 after just 342 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 95% Profit on Crude Oil Call on June 11, 2014 after just 73 days (i.e., about 470% Annualized)
  • 75% Profit on Equity Index Call on May 27, 2014 after 21 days (i.e., about 1305% Annualized.)
  • 30% Profit on Equity Index Call on May 13, 2014 after 34 days (i.e., about 320% Annualized)
  • 75% Profit on Crude Oil Call on April 14, 2014 after 13 days (i.e., about 2000% Annualized)
  • 60% Profit on Water Management Company on March 3, 2014 after 454 days (i.e., about 50% Annualized)

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.

Note 3: A launching Mega-Trend began to Reveal itself last week.

Investors who ignore it do so at their Peril.

Those who Ride with it have Tremendous Opportunities for Profit and Wealth Protection.

Consider its Impact on our Forecasts in Deepcaster’s recent Alert, “Hot Money Opportunities; Forecasts: Equities; U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates; Gold & Silver; Crude Oil & Copper,” posted in ‘Alerts Cache’ on Deepcaster.com.

Note 4: “Kuroda is a certified madman running the Bank of Japan.” — David Stockman, 11/13/14, former Head US OMB & U.S. Representative

The Accelerator is Running Full Bore and is creating Major Opportunities and Serious Threats.

Though we would not have put it quite that way, Stockman’s comment correctly reflects an underlying Important Reality.

Indeed, the Accelerator is Accelerating.

To consider The Accelerator and the Opportunities and Threats it is generating review our Forecasts in Deepcaster’s recent Alert, “ Accelerator Opportunities & Threats; BUY RECO!; Forecasts: Equities; U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates; Gold & Silver; Crude Oil & Copper,” posted in ‘Alerts Cache’ on Deepcaster.com.

And for an opportunity to Profit and Protect Wealth in light of What is coming, see our Buy Recommendation aimed at profiting from an impending Major Move. And for a recent Buy Recommendation, see Note 3.

Note 5: Fundamentals, Technicals and Interventionals, are all signaling a Mega-Move is impending in a Key Sector.

And our Timing Forecast is that this move is likely soon, very soon.

Of course other Key Sectors will be affected by this Mega-Move as well.

To consider the Fundamentals, Technicals and Interventionals, read Deepcaster’s Forecasts for Key Sectors in our recent Alert, “Key Sector Mega-Move Impending; BUY RECO!; Forecasts: Equities; U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates; Gold & Silver; Crude Oil & Copper,” posted in ‘Alerts Cache’ on Deepcaster.com.

 

 


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