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Intensifying Currency War Consequences

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“When the dollar collapse comes, it will happen in two ways: gradually then suddenly. That formula, famously used by Hemingway to describe how one goes bankrupt, is an apt description of critical state dynamics in complex systems. The gradual part is a snowflake disturbing a small patch of snow, while the sudden part is the avalanche. The snowflake is random yet the avalanche is inevitable. Both ideas are easy to grasp. What is difficult to grasp is the critical state of the system in which the random event occurs.”  

Jim Rickards, Currency Wars

Major Fiat Currency Printers around the World are devaluing their currencies by “printing” ostensibly in order to bolster their economies.

But the consequences of The U.S. Fed’s QE for example, have been increasingly to artificially inflate financial Assets and enrich The Fed’s Mega-Bank Owners. It has not resulted in an improving U.S. Economy or Employment Picture.

But Fed QE and related forms of Money Printing have unleashed Serious and Impending Financial and Economic Threats.

These Threats are Signaling Impending Mega-Moves. Such Signals have already facilitated recent Profitable Recommendations (see Note 2).

But the impending Threats are also opportunities for Profit and Protection for the Well-informed!

Consider the U.S. Economy:

Indicator #1 – Q4 U.S. GDP was revised down to 2.4% from 3.2% -- Not Bullish.

Indicator #2 – The Case – Shiller PE Ratio (Google it) is nearly 28 today. But the Mean and Median since the 1880s is about 16. Historically, a reading as high as 28 indicates an Equities market which is grossly overvalued, and has typically resulted in a Crash.

Indicator #3 – Retail Sales, and Job Growth, and housing and Industrial Production have slowed. Real U.S. Unemployment is 23.2% per Shadowstats.com.

Indicator #4, technically, as we have demonstrated in our recent Alerts, the Equities Markets are making Multi-year Tops, with all exhibiting Jaws of Death Patterns.

Indicator #5 – The Russia-China “Squeeze Play” is just aborning (see below).

But, above all, The Currency War is being played out in the Ukraine.

Indeed, there is much more, and different than the Mainstream Media Version, about the Ukrainian Situation than meets the eye. And it is most Threatening to $US Hegemony as World’s Reserve Currency. Of the Many Factors causing that Conflict, Currency Hegemony, and Consequent Economic Hegemony is the main one.

The $US has been under increasing pressure in recent months as Sovereign Nations, and others have been increasingly selling $US and $US-denominated Assets.

There is much credible evidence that:

Russia, and China, and Russia in concert with China, are fed up with what they feel to be U.S., U.K. Eurozone (except to a degree Germany and the Nordics) Bullying-in-general. In their view, U.S. involvement in the Ukraine is only the latest example. Indeed, East Ukraine and Crimea which are historically and ethnically a Part of Russia, with millions of Russian-Ukrainian conjugal families as Testimony to this Fact. Indeed, Ukraine itself was part of Russia for 300 years.

Lest one think that this interpretation Mischaracterizes the perspectives of ethnically Russian Ukrainians consider that the Crimean Parliament just voted to join Russia and hold a referendum in 10 days on the matter. (Ukraine’s Acting President has predictably called the referendum “a farce.”)

But Russia-China see the overthrow of the elected Russian-backed government by an unelected Cabal (with ties to the West, and Western Banking and Financial interests and NATO!) on Russia’s Doorstep, to be unacceptable.

Indeed, in their view, the Obama Adm. – facilitated Coup, and attempt to isolate Russia can not succeed because Russia-China can not be isolated. And Russia and China are now de facto allies. Together Russia-China control 30% of US Financial Assets as well as Resources around the World. And China’s Control of African and Latin American Resources, plus China’s Leadership of the BRICS-controlled BRICS summit last year, provide an alternative to US-Eurozone (and thus $US) Hegemony.

The Renminbi has already been listed at the MICEX (Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange) and Russia-China intend to use only their own currencies for bilateral trade.

The Eurozone in Particular, and the World in general need the Energy and Food Production Assets Controlled by Russia and China.

Indeed, Investor Wilbur Ross, who has made Billions by not being wrong, recently said Putin is “leader of the World.”

Result: leverage for Russia & China

Couple all the aforementioned with what Russia sees (with considerable justification) as the West’s attempt to surround it with NATO-linked Nations, to control/limit the Export of Russia’s Gas via pipeline through Ukraine and neighboring countries, and control Ukrainian Oil, Gas and Food Exports. Russia has also been aggravated by the West’s attempt to limit/stop/control the export of Iranian Oil and Gas through the Russian-Controlled pipelines and Syrian Port, and to disrupt/stop Russia’s Gazprom and other Russian companies, from clearing their Transactions through Cypriot Banks, and you are looking at an outraged Russia, in league with China and with the support of resource rich Iran.

These three constitute an Axis which can not be Economically or Militarily isolated, however much the West try.

Most important for Investors is that there is new evidence that Russia’s Outrage and China’s Self-Interest are about to lead to a serious Attack on the $US and US T-Bonds. Indeed, Russian Presidential Advisor, Sergei Glazer, recently indicated that Russia’s Response to John Kerry’s “crippling sanctions” could be that “authorities should dump U.S. Government Bonds.” And China’s recent commitment to 7.5% GDP Growth but also to a 12.5% Increase in Military Spending is not comforting.

Indeed, China has already been preparing to replace the $US as World Reserve Currency, by a Gold-backed Yuan. And Russia has indicated it would support the inclusion of Gold in a weighted basket of a new Global Currency.

In sum, longer term, given the US Fed’s QE and other Central Bank’s Money Printing Frenzy of recent years, we forecast the $US will dramatically lose Purchasing Power and be displaced as The World’s Reserve Currency by a Gold-backed Chinese Yuan, as the Russia-China Squeeze takes its effect. The Fed-led Cartel (Note 1) Profligate Printing nearly guarantees that.

Indeed, Key Major Multi-Year Technicals and Fundamentals Signal a Crash is coming largely as a result of Fed and other Major Central Bank Money-Printing Policies..

Consider that, as The Fed (eventually) increases QE to counter The Crash (or if Russia-China start to implement their Squeeze Play First), the $US will start to Collapse (first slowly and then in a cascade, as Rickards points out) and, consequently, U.S. Treasury strength will reverse and That Biggest of all Asset Bubbles will begin to deflate and then Burst.

In other words, since The Fed (and other CB’s) will have to continue, and eventually increase, QE again to keep interest rates down and Equities propped up a while longer, the already ongoing debasement of the $US Purchasing Power will become increasingly evident. Therefore at some point the ongoing modest selling (i.e., refusal to support or purchase) of the $US by Sovereigns (e.g., China sold a record amount of U.S. T-Bonds in December, 2013) will turn into a Rout (as will selling of U.S. Treasuries), likely resulting in the collapse of US Treasury Securities Values as well as the displacement of the $US by the Gold-Backed Chinese Yuan as World Reserve Currency.

This will impel Gold and Silver Prices much higher, notwithstanding Ongoing Cartel (Note 1) Price Suppression attempts. Gold & Silver, remarkably, as the Ukraine Crises was heating up a bit and the $US Weakened (both should have impelled Gold Higher). Gold (and Silver) showed some weakness, until the Ukraine Crises heated up a lot, then they shot up.

This tells us the Cartel is still active, and somewhat successful, in suppressing Precious Metal prices, but not nearly as effective as in earlier days.

As well, for reasons we have laid out before (e.g., increasing Physical Demand from China), we believe Cartel Price Suppression can not be sustained.

We reiterate our earlier observation that the Shortage of Physical Gold is intensifying. Asian, and especially Chinese Buying, and taking Delivery of Physical is at Record levels. And Deliverable (Registered) Physical at Major Exchanges like the Comex is at Record lows.

Couple that with China’s record January, 2014 lending (i.e., credit creation) year over year (also a 4 year high) and Fed Chair Yellen’s promise to open the Monetary Spigots in the event of a slowdown, and one can see why Gold and Silver have been rising recently. Inflation is not only already here with Real U.S. CPI at 9.2% (cf. Shadowstats.com) but it is now becoming visible on the Horizon.

Thus, our view is that a Great Launch Up for the Precious Metals is impending, and may indeed already have begun.

Regarding the Currency War’s impact on Present and Prospective Crude Oil Prices, consider that The Ukraine Dispute has multifaceted Impact. In Part it is a battle over who Controls Ukraine’s Oil and Gas reserves, and access to Russia’s (via pipelines running through Ukraine); in part about controlling Russia’s Port on the Black Sea, and in part a conflict between the Russia-Speakers in East Ukraine and Crimea, and Euro-centric Citizens of the West, and above all about the Major Powers Conflict (Currency War) Scenario outlined above.

From the Russian-Chinese perspective, The Westerners facilitated the overthrow of the Democratically elected, (albeit Brutal and Corrupt) Government, and the installation of a Rogue Cabal linked to NATO and willing to Direct Energy and Food toward the West, which exacerbated the foregoing Disputes.

Whatever develops, (except peace, which is unlikely) it will be Bullish for the Oil Price in $US terms, since we are witnessing a weakening $US.

Given our Currency Wars Analysis, it is no surprise that our Crude forecast has thus far been “spot” on, pun intended. We correctly forecast Crudes Rally back up to $100/bbl. See our recent Alerts for Updated Forecasts. Indeed, signals from the Intensifying Currency War have facilitated several quite Profitable Recommendations recently (Note 2).

Also Unsurprisingly to us, OPEC recently estimated that World Demand has now risen to 90 Million/bbl/day – an all time record. China’s demand continues to increase.

In sum, it looks as if the Fed-Generated $US Currency Devaluation will lead to an Equities Crash and another Global Financial Meltdown.

This is only one of the Many Negative Consequences flowing from The private, for-profit Fed’s Policy of supporting its Owners/Shareholders through “Monetary Morphine,” a former U.S. Representative Dr. Ron Paul explains

“‘Monetary morphine.’

“That's how some are now referring to the Fed's risky and unprecedented print-now, ask-questions-later policies. “As a doctor, I can tell you morphine is one of the most dangerous and addictive substances known to man. First, just a little of the opiate masks a patient's pain. But then, addicts crave more and more until overdoses result in death. “…the Fed has tried hard to mask many of our economic problems for years now. But today, the first cracks are starting to appear in what I believe will be nothing less than a Federal Reserve-created, global financial meltdown. “And every second Congress waits to finally audit and EXPOSE the Federal Reserve - the first step toward finally ENDING the Fed once and for all - the problems get bigger and bigger.

 

“Monetary Morphine,” Congressman Ron Paul

But the Hot War is the Intensifying War over the Future of the $US. John Williams of Shadowstats.com provides an excellent analysis and Forecast.

“…The End Game Begins .  The U.S. currency and U.S. financial system have faced an intensifying, broad range of vulnerabilities in recent months.  Negative shocks in the areas of economic activity, domestic- and global-political circumstances have continued, while U.S. government and Federal Reserve authorities increasingly have found themselves unable to address a non-recovering economy as well as the mounting risks of financial-system instabilities. 

“Under these circumstances, Russia’s military action against Ukraine, and related bellicose comments from Russia concerning the U.S. dollar and banking system, have raised the risks markedly of instabilities in the dollar and the domestic financial system.  Talk of action to abandon the dollar as the global reserve currency; to move to dump the dollar; and to damage U.S. banks financially, cannot be taken lightly.  China has been supportive of the Russian military action and also previously has called for the removal of the dollar as the global reserve currency.  There have been stories of discontent within OPEC as to the dollar’s reserve status.

“The risks here are manifold.  Keep in mind that in 2008, the U.S. financial system was on the brink of actual collapse.   All the actions taken then by the Fed and the U.S. Treasury, including creating or spending whatever money was needed, all the bailouts, guarantees, interventions, etc., were only stopgap measures.  The actions forestalled a financial-system collapse, temporarily, but they did little, if anything, to restore normal economic activity or financial-system solvency.

“The problems of 2008 remain.  A renewed crisis largely is  just a matter of timing.  As the system moves again to the brink, however, the Fed and the Treasury likely will find themselves with their ammunition much reduced, as a result of the post-2007 battle, which still is being waged in certain quarters.

“Then there is the unexpected.  Something goes wrong, and various financial triggers are pulled, as threatened or otherwise.  To the extent the rest of the world sees a pending demise in the U.S. dollar, there likely will be a number of large investors, sovereign and private, who would look to front run the Russians, or other hostile states, looking to get out of the U.S. currency while they could.

“A panicked sell-off in the U.S. dollar and dumping of dollar-denominated paper assets remains in the offing.  Where a bad economic statistic, or fiscal or monetary blunder by the government or Federal Reserve had been viewed as the most likely proximal triggers for the dollar’s demise, global political instabilities also have become a leading contender.  There likely will be a confluence of negative factors that will accelerate the decline in the dollar’s value.  How that translates into inflation and other detail, again, is covered in Hyperinflation 2014—The End Game Begins.  Physical gold and silver remain the primary hedges for those looking to preserve the purchasing power of their wealth and assets. …”

Commentary Number 605, John Williams Shadowstats.com, 03/05/2014

And regarding the USA’s Real Fiscal Deficit according to GAAP:

“Subject to possible minor refinement, the federal deficit for fiscal-year 2013 (year-ended September 30th) was roughly $6.2 trillion, versus $6.6 trillion in 2012, based on the government’s generally-accepted accounting principles (GAAP), and as adjusted for a consistent-estimation basis with 2012 and for the year-end 2013 accounting and reporting gimmicks of the U.S. Treasury, which had been operating at its statutory debt-ceiling for five months, and was on the brink of a government shutdown.  The federal government’s GAAP-Based fiscal deficit, remains beyond control and containment, and the long-term U.S. sovereign-solvency issues remain a significant concern for the global financial community.

“The headline cash-based deficit for 2013 was reported at a headline $680.3 billion, down from a $1089.4 billion headline deficit in 2012.  Before accounting for the changes in unfunded liabilities for government programs, the GAAP-based 2013 deficit was about $1,157 billion, versus $1,316 trillion in 2012.

“Total federal obligations at year-end 2013 totaled $91.7 billion, up from $85.4 trillion in 2012.  These obligations included gross federal debt and the net present value of unfunded liabilities.  The 2013 total was 5.7 times the level of nominal (not-adjusted for inflation) GDP for the full fiscal-year. …”

Commentary Number 606, John Williams, Shadowstats.com, 03/06/2014

And Richard Russell summarizes the Prospects for the Markets and Economy

“…The stock market continues to be levitated by the Fed’s quantitative easing. The risk to reward ratio for being in the stock market is negative.

“Meanwhile, the US economy remains in recession. And once the truth breaks out, the stock market will slip into crash mode. The stock market is up on Fed manipulations, and the economy is up on lies and propaganda. It’s a poisonous combination.”

Richard’s Remarks, Richard Russell, 03/05/2014

Daily monitoring of the “Progress” of the ongoing Currency War allows Investors to Be prepared for Profit and Protection.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
March 7, 2014

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 2: Our attention to Key Timing Signals has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our six most recent:

60% Profit on Water Management Company on March 3, 2014 after 454 days (i.e., about 50% Annualized)

100% Profit on Crude Oil Call on February 10, 2014 after 27 days (i.e., about 1400% Annualized)

30% Profit on Equity Index Puts on February 5, 2014 after 8 days (i.e., about 1440% Annualized)

55% Profit on Water Management Company on January 15, 2014 after 406 days (i.e., about 50% Annualized)

140% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 27, 2013 after just 10 days (i.e., about 5200% Annualized)

40% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 19, 2013 after just 2 days (i.e., about 7500% Annualized)

 


Essential Knowledge for Maximizing Real Gains

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

March, 2014

“Noted investor Jim Rogers says outgoing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has set the stage for the collapse of the U.S. central bank within the next decade, and had turned the nation’s fiscal balance sheet into ‘garbage.’

“In a recent interview with the British financial website Mineweb, Rogers said Bernanke and his fellow central bankers in other countries have brought the global economy to the brink of disaster….

“Rogers predicted that history will remember Bernanke as ‘the guy who set the stage for the demise of the central bank in America.’

“‘It’s not a possibility,’ Rogers said, ‘it’s a probability. People will realize that these guys have led us down a terrible path. The Fed balance sheet has increased by 500 per cent in the last five years, and a lot of it’s garbage.’…”

“Jim Rogers: The Federal Reserve’s Days Are Numbered,” Moneynews, 01/06/2014

Master Investor Jim Rogers’ Negative view of the private-for-profit Fed is echoed by former Director of the OMB, David Stockman, who said that The Fed has created “The Mother of All Bubbles.” We agree, and would add that the ongoing and prospective Effects of Fed Policy and Market Interventions are the Most Essential Data (among several) for Maximizing Real Gains going forward.

So it is Important to Understand How and Why Fed Policies and their Effects are Most Essential. And How can Investors and Traders Profit and Protect from them?

Indeed, Signals from Interventions, as well as Fundamentals and Technicals have facilitated Deepcaster’s recent Profitable Recommendations (see Note 3 below).

“Since its inception in 1913, The Federal Reserve Board has been responsible for almost 95% devaluation of the U.S. Dollar. All this has been achieved through its ability to continually inflate the money supply.  

“And, between 1985 and 2005, the Federal Reserve Board has increased the money supply by five times. This extraordinary money creation is merely the catalyst for debt creation. In a fiat money system, money is debt…there is absolutely no way this money can ever be repaid except by continued inflation. But, now that the credit bubble is blown up, inflation is no longer an option; bankruptcy looms.”

“The Federal Reserve…What Has It Done For You Lately?”
Ian Gordon, December 29, 2007, www.axisoflogic.com

Indeed, a few months after Ian Gordon correctly announced “the credit bubble is blown up,” it (the housing Bubble), bust and the 2008-2009 Market Crash ensued.

But there is an even greater wealth destroying effect of Fed money-printing Policies – the Destruction of the Purchasing Power of that Fiat Currency itself.

Pick any period of rising U.S. Equities Markets whether from the September, 2002 lows through the September, 2007 high, or the December, 2011 lows to the late March, 2012 highs.

These Highs lulled some investors and several commentators into believing that they had Real Gains as of September, 2007 or March, 2012. Unfortunately, when properly measured, many of these Ostensible Gains actually are not.

Deepcaster contends that the Proper Measure for Gains is “Purchasing Power.”

Consider, specifically, the rise in the U.S. Equities Markets from 2005 through 2006. If one owned shares in the S&P 500 (SPX – the market basket of S&P 500 Securities) for the 12-month period ending April 30, 2006, the value of that market basket of securities would have risen in U.S. Dollar terms.

But it would have declined over 30% since the summer of 2005 when measured by the price of Gold. The point is that, from the summer of 2005 until late April 2006 the S&P 500 was in a Bull Market in Dollar terms, but in a Bear Market in Gold terms.

As an Alternative Measure, consider also the United States Dollar. From January 2002 through late April 2006; for example, the U.S. Dollar, as measured by the USDX (the U.S. Dollar‘s value as measured by a market basket of other currencies) lost Purchasing Power in an amount exceeding 25%.

Since many, if not most, of the prices of goods and services purchased are determined in an international economy, such a loss of Purchasing Power is quite substantial. Thus, a person whose increases in U.S. Dollar income from January 2002 through April 2006 collectively amounted to less than 25% actually suffered a loss of Purchasing Power in the international economy in that period.

Such Purchasing Power losses are even Greater when one takes Account of Real Inflation. Real Inflation in the U.S. for example, is 9.17% (as of February, 2014) per shadowstats.com. Shadowstats measures Inflation the way it was measured in the 1980s before the Official Figures became Politicized and therefore Bogus (see Note 1 and Chart).

One key point is that one must decide what asset or asset class one will use as the “baseline asset” against which to measure one‘s wealth and income increase or decrease. And one must also take account of Real Inflation.

Deepcaster‘s view is that the Ultimate Measures of Value should be Gold (first), then Silver and the other Precious Metals and Key Strategic Commodities (i.e., generally, Tangible Assets including especially Crude Oil rather than Paper “Assets”).

Why? Because the Private-for-Profit Fed, the ECB, and other Central Banks are increasingly Printing/Digitizing Fiat Money and Credit into existence ($Trillions in recent years—including The Fed’s $4 Trillion Balance Sheet!) well in excess of any increase in Global Production of Goods and Services, thus diminishing Fiat Currencies‘ Purchasing Power. This is why the Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar (Federal Reserve Note) has declined by over 95% since The Fed was founded in 1913.

Another Key point is that this Fiat Currency Creation out of Thin Air continues to increase at an accelerating rate and thus is a sure Precursor to Price Inflation (see Note 1). Even Money of Zero Maturity (MZM) has increased 10-fold since 1980.

Thus Gold and Silver Prices should reflect this Monetary Inflation, and indeed they have with the Gold Price increasing four-fold in the past decade. But owning Gold and Silver is challenging.

In other words, one should employ this Golden Tangible Asset ―Ultimate‖ Valuation Measure but with caution because the prices of the aforementioned Precious Metals and other commodities, as well as Equities, are periodically the victims of Interventional Action by a Fed-led Cartel (see Note 2) of Central Bankers and their Allies and Agents. Indeed, some Interventions are conducted quite publicly. Interest Rate Adjustments are the most publicly visible. The August 17, 2007 Fed Discount Rate Cut is one example. Less visible, but not less potent, are the nearly daily Repurchase Agreement (Repo) injections (by The Fed, via their Primary Dealers), used, inter alia, to manipulate the levels of the Equities Markets. And there are other Potential and Ongoing, but barely visible, Interventions as well.

For example, nearly $470 billion in OTC (i.e. Dark, not Exchange Traded) Derivatives were available to suppress Gold prices alone as of June, 2011 (as reported by the BIS, the Central Bankers’ Bank based in Switzerland - www.bis.org. (Path: www.bis.org>statistics>derivatives>statistical tables). Indeed, were it not for active Gold Price Suppression by The Cartel, Deepcaster believes Gold would have exceeded $3000/oz. by now.

For example, observing the markets upon arising on Tuesday, August 19, 2008, Deepcaster noted that the two main stories headlined in the Big Financial Media were the prospective collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the July PPI increase of 1.2% — twice what was expected.

Of course, as Safe Havens, Gold and Silver should have rocketed up on this news but, instead, Gold was taken down several dollars at the time and moved very little when the PPI number was announced.

Similarly, in mid-March, 2008 when the Financial Crisis culminated (temporarily) with the demise of Bear Stearns, Gold and Silver were smashed down, whereas in a Free Market they would have shot up.

Clearly Gold and Silver Prices were and still are subject to capping attempts, as they seem to have been nearly every time negative economic data or market developments are revealed.

However, the Cartel is finding it increasingly difficult to successfully and sustainably cap paper prices because of huge drawdown of available bullion, bullion which is increasingly being shipped to China (e.g., recent 360% increase year over year).

One insight which we garner, again, from these and many similar observations is that it is essential to consider the Interventionals as well as the Fundamentals and Technicals when making a Market Forecast or Buy or Sell Recommendation.

Thus, for example, the price of Gold and Silver on any given day may not reflect anything near their Ultimate Value. See Deepcaster‘s March, 2012 Article “Profit, Protection Despite Cartel Intervention” in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com.

Unfortunately, there are also ongoing Interventions in Major Markets other than the Gold and Silver markets. They are especially visible in the U.S. Equities Markets via, for example, the (nearly daily) Repo injections. [However, on the positive side, our attention to Interventions and related signals has facilitated several Profitable Recommendations recently – see Note 3].

Importantly, this fact of Ongoing Intervention is one major reason a mere ―Buy and Hold‖ strategy increasingly fails, especially as far as Equities are concerned. A Holder of the S&P through the last decade would have lost substantial value when Real Inflation is considered, and will likely lose more as Fiat Money Printing intensifies. And it Surely will.

“QE to Infinity is set in cement in the ‗European Stabilization Mechanism Treaty‘. This is the new European Union and the euro. It will be in place and operative by July of 2012.

“The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is a permanent rescue funding programme to succeed the temporary European Financial Stability Facility and European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism in the 17-member Eurozone. The ESM is due to be launched as soon as Member States representing 90% of the capital commitments have ratified it, which is expected in July 2012.”

Jim Sinclair, Mineset, 04/19/2012

And Ellen Brown eloquently describes the profitable consequences of the ESM bailout coup for private mega banks, some of which are shareholders of The private, for-profit Fed!

“The Goldman Sachs coup that failed in America has nearly succeeded in Europe—a permanent, irrevocable, unchallengeable bailout for the banks underwritten by the taxpayers”

“The European Stabilization Mechanism, or How the Goldman Vampire Squid Just Captured Europe,” Ellen Brown, webofdebt.com/articles, 04/18/2012, via LeMetropoleCafe.com

The Cartel’s motivation for takedown attempts of Gold, Silver, and other Tangible Assets is clear: they do not want the further legitimization of Gold & Silver (or Tangible Assets in general, for that matter) as Measures and Stores of Value (i.e. Real Money) to compete with their Treasury Securities and Fiat Currencies.

But, notwithstanding the Interventions, one can still utilize a “comparative valuation” approach. The benefit of the “comparative valuation” approach outlined above is that it actually gives one a different and illuminating perspective on Asset Inflation, Asset Deflation, and Purchasing Power. For example, if the reader chooses not to use Gold (Deepcaster‘s ―baseline asset‖ of choice) or other Precious Metals as a baseline asset, because their Paper Prices are Manipulated. We invite the reader to consider the consequences of using the Energy Assets Class instead.

But again, the Interventional Caveat applies: there exist $Trillions of OTC Derivatives available to manipulate the price of Crude Oil and other Commodities — see BIS Table referenced above.

As long as the private-for-profit United States Federal Reserve and ECB continue to profligately expand the supply of money and credit, we will see continuing debasement of the U.S. Dollar and Euro in Purchasing Power Terms and this virtually guarantees Price Inflation and another Bubble, a Financial Assets Bubble which caused Billionaire Carl Icahn to correctly call the current (3/1/2014) levels of Stock Prices a “Mirage.” Thus much of the Financial Asset, in terms of U.S. Dollars, which we have seen in recent years, is really only dollar depreciation. Indeed, the U.S. Dollar has depreciated over 30% between January, 2002 and July, 2008, for example.

In sum, therefore, if one holds appreciated (in dollar terms) financial “assets” one must consider "appreciation (or depreciation) vis-à-vis what?” Depending on one's choice, one may find that the ostensible appreciation is really depreciation. [And especially so, if one factors in the tax consequences of being taxed on a larger number of U.S. Dollars which have a substantially decreased Purchasing Power.]

Specifically, for example, measured (as of May 1, 2006, just to pick a salient date) against Gold or even other currencies, the ostensible appreciation of financial assets from late 2002 through the end of April, 2006 is arguably only a delusion . That is, it is arguably only an artifact of the Fed's profligate printing of paper money and increase of credit — enabling an unhealthy “borrowed liquidity” as opposed to a healthy “earned liquidity” (e.g. savings) to use the late Dr. Kurt Richebacher‘s (R.I.P.) superb distinction. Given this Reality, the ostensible appreciation reflects only the Increasing depreciation of the Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar. That is we have Prices Inflation which The Cartel and its Media Allies and Agents try to hide from us.

John Brimelow, a savvy long-time observer of Markets writes,

“Bloomberg, which in JBGJ‘s informed opinion is exceptionally top-down directed on an ideological basis even by American mainstream Media standards, has apparently been mobilized to counteract inflation fears: CPI Conspiracy Theories Fail to Die with Banana-to-Haircut Check. The invocation of the ‘Conspiracy Theory’ concept in the context of 21st Century America polemics is the most extreme form of antithematization. “Excommunication if this severity suggests alarming inflation data at least at the anecdotal level is looming.”  

JBGJ LLC, 04/18/2012

In the long run, Deepcaster believes one can find no better “Safe Haven” and Measure and Store of Value than in the Precious Monetary Metals, Gold and Silver, and selected other Tangible Assets, like basis Foodstuffs, interests in Food Producers and Distributors and Crude Oil.

BUT, we must reiterate that one essential Caveat regarding finding a “Safe Haven” and Measure and Store of Value in Precious Monetary Metals: in the short run they are still subject to the considerable price manipulation Suppression Attempts by The Cartel of Central Bankers (Note 2).

[Indeed, as long as The Cartel is in a very active interventional mode (e.g. as in taking down the price of Gold and Silver periodically) one should not be lured into thinking that the periodic up spikes in the prices of Gold and Silver necessarily present a "breakout" or a buying opportunity. As a practical matter, technical breakouts are sometimes a lure designed to suck in more "longs" prior to a subsequent deeper Takedown. Consider the parabolic spike up in both Gold and Silver prices in the hours before the Massive February 29, 2012 Takedown began.]

However, there is increasingly reason for optimism . The Cartel‘s ability to implement and sustain Takedowns has been considerably weakened recently largely because of increasing demand for Delivery of Physical Gold and Silver (as opposed to “paper,” e.g., Certain Precious Metal ETF shares) – See Below.

Moreover, Central Banks have begun to be Acquirers of Physical, and China has become (and India is) a Major net importer.

Therefore, it is essential to study the Fundamentals and Technicals even though the Interventionals can temporarily override the Fundamentals and Technicals. One must study the Fundamentals not only for all the usual reasons but also because Fundamentals somewhat constrain the timing and effectiveness of Interventions by The Cartel.

Similarly, one should study the Technicals for all the usual reasons and, in addition, because it is in The Cartel‘s interest to make its actions seem technically plausible in order to continue to “run mainly under the radar.” It is not in The Cartel‘s interest to make its Interventions any more visible than they already are. Indeed, there is Powerful evidence that The Cartel often uses and/or helps create technical patterns (aka “Painting the Charts”) which lure certain investors (such as hard asset investors) into getting “off sides” before Cartel actions such as taking down the price of Gold or Silver.

So the question is, in the next round, will The Cartel price suppressors win out when it comes to Precious Metals and other Tangible Assets prices, or will increasingly Bullish fundamentals propel them further up? Deepcaster provides his most recent Forecasts in his latest Letter and Alerts posted at www.deepcaster.com.

Whatever the answer, the mounting evidence is that the Fed-led Cartel is knowingly creating conditions designed to force the U.S (and, indeed, the entire industrialized world), to eventually choose between a Hyperinflationary Depression and the Cartel‘s ominous “End Game,” which Deepcaster has described in its Alert of 8/13/07 “Massive Financial-Geopolitical Scheme Not Reported by Big Media” and June, 2007 Letter “Profiting From the Push to Denationalize Currencies and Deconstruct Nations” all and 9/23/10 Article “Gold-Freedom versus The Cartel ‘End-Game’ & A Strategy for Surmounting It” available at www.deepcaster.com.

As Jim Rogers and David Stockman point out, Fed Policy is impelling us to such a Climax.

In addition to acquiring Gold and Silver, another way of surmounting the Hyperinflationary Effect of ongoing Fed and ECB QE is to Invest in High Yield stocks such as those listed in Deepcaster‘s High Yield Portfolio with selections aimed at achieving Total Return (Gain plus Yield) in excess of Real Inflation (9.17% as of February, 2014 in the U.S. See Note 1)

In sum, among the key components of Deepcaster‘s prescription for achieving ―Real Gains‖ are:

1. Locating one‘s capital primarily in Tangible Assets which are in great and relatively inelastic demand, including in

2. The Agricultural Commodities, Production and Distribution Sector (which by the way, have generally begun to uptrend in late February, 2014), and in the

3. Precious Monetary Metals (e.g., Gold and Silver) but, preferably when acquired near the interim bottoms of Cartel-generated Takedowns. Timing and Selection here are key. For further details see Deepcaster‘s 12/23/07 Alert entitled “A Strategy for Profiting From Cartel Intervention in Gold, Silver, Crude, & Other Tangible Assets Markets” at www.deepcaster.com.

4. Stay informed, daily, as much as possible, regarding “The Interventionals” as well as the Fundamentals and Technicals.

5. Know the Real News and Real Statistics. Do not rely on often-spun MSM “News” and Bogus Official Data.

6. Monitor the Value of the $US, since it is the Advent of Major Climacterics.

Ultimately, the authentic stores and measures of value are Gold and Silver and other key Tangible Assets, not paper Fiat Currencies and Treasury Securities. But with the Interveners extremely active it behooves investors to regularly attend to the Interventionals as one acquires, and disposes of, and reacquires Key Tangible Assets.

Deutsche Bank assures us that the Worst is yet to come

“The worst may be yet to come in the global financial crisis as the central bank spending that kept defaults low runs out, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

Credit-default swap prices imply that four or more European nations may suffer so-called credit events such as having to restructure their debt, strategists led by Jim Reid and Nick Burns said in a note. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of contracts on 15 governments including Spain and Italy jumped 26 percent in the past month as the region‘s crisis flared up.

“’If these implied defaults come vaguely close to being realized then the next five years of corporate and financial defaults could easily be worse than the last five relatively calm years,’ the analysts in London said.  

Much may eventually depend on how much money-printing can be tolerated as we are very close to being maxed out fiscally.”

 “Deutsche Bank: Worst of Global Crisis Yet to Come as Rescue Cash Runs Out,” Bloomberg, 04/18/2012

That analysis, written nearly two years ago, is even more strongly applicable today.

Be Prepared!

Best regards,

Deepcaster February 28, 2014

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported February 20, 2014
1.5%     /    9.17%

U.S. Unemployment reported February 7, 2014
6.6%     /     23.2%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported January 30, 2013
2.74%        /     -1.40%

U.S. M3 reported February 15, 2014 (Month of January, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     3.07% (i.e., total M3 Now at $15.544 Trillion!)

“Only new-home sales data showed positive monthly results. Yet, with that series at 65% below its pre-recession highs, and with headline monthly and annual gains well shy of approaching statistical significance.”

“Durable Goods Orders in Downturn,” Commentary Number 603
www.shadowstats.com, John Williams, 02/27/2014

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and Power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster‘s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled, “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel‘s Dark Interventions – III,” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled, "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds," in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster‘s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster‘s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 3: Our attention to Key Timing Signals has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our six most recent:

100% Profit on Crude Oil Call on February 10, 2014 after 27 days (i.e., about 1400% Annualized)

30% Profit on Equity Index Puts on February 5, 2014 after 8 days (i.e., about 1440% Annualized)

55% Profit on Water Management Company on January 15, 2014 after 406 days (i.e., about 50% Annualized)

140% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 27, 2013 after just 10 days (i.e., about 5200% Annualized)

40% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 19, 2013 after just 2 days (i.e., about 7500% Annualized)

135% Profit on Equity Index Call on October 28, 2013 after just 13 days (i.e., about 3800% Annualized)


 

“Housing numbers were abysmal for January 2014. This is yet another evidence that there is a huge disconnect between Wall Street and Fedspeak, versus the real economy. The truth is, the economy stinks. Big picture stock market patterns are telling us the economy will get much worse, and an economic depression could be coming.”  

Robert McHugh, 02/19/2014

Do you own any Bonds? Does your Retirement Account hold any Bonds? Better check. And in particular check the Yield.

If the Yield is 3% or 4% or even 5%, consider whether the Real Rate of Inflation is actually eroding the Value (Purchasing Power) of that Yield to a Negative Number (i.e., to a Negative Real Interest Rate).

For the U.S. for Example, if one looks beyond the Bogus Official Numbers, one sees that the Real Inflation Rate is 9.17% per Shadowstats.com (Note 1 – Chart).

Does the after-tax yield keep pace with Inflation? Really?

And the same considerations, and questions, should be addressed for Bonds denominated in other currencies, and whether the official Numbers in those Countries are Bogus as well.

And what about Risk to Principal? Return “of” one’s money is ultimately more important than return “on” one’s money – Think Cyprus.

Consider the recent fate of Bonds issued in Argentina or Turkey. And consider what the Real Inflation Rate is in Emerging Market Countries.

The Deception/Delusion (whichever one prefers) is not only about the Real Rate of Inflation. What about “Bail-Ins” and “Super Priority” Rights of Mega-Financial Institutions in the event of another Financial Crisis (see our earlier Articles on these subjects)?

And does the country of issuance have Capital Controls? Is the after-tax Yield really sufficient to compensate for the Real Rate of inflation and Risk to Principal?

If Answers to any of these Questions Disturb you, just realize where a large Part of the Blame lies. The Fed and other Central Bankers have and are devaluing money and interest Rates to the point where Money can be borrowed at very low rates.

This has created Massive Economic, Financial and Asset Distortion – i.e., Bubbles. No wonder Savvy Investor, Carl Icahn, called current Equities levels a “Mirage.” But Bubbles Burst.

But do you want to be caught owning any of that paper?

And do you want to be caught hold any of the paper in light of another Deception/Delusion (Take your pick!) – such as “The Economy is Recovering”? Indeed, Fundamental and Technicals and Interventionals Signal Differently. Indeed, they Signal that “The Big One” is Impending. Consider recent signals via Shadowstats.

Strongest Signal for a Recession Since September 2007

“January Retail Sales Activity Plunged by 0.6% for the Month

January Annual Inflation: 1.6% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)

“Underlying CPI Inflation Picks Up; Economic Activity Is in Decline.    Early   indications abound of a probable downturn in the current quarter (January through March of 2014).  The increasingly likely contraction in headline first-quarter 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) has been signaled by the January 2014 reporting detail on employment ( Commentary No. 598 ), industrial production (Commentary No. 600), housing starts (Commentary No. 601) and retail sales (Commentary No. 599   and today’s Commentary).  A particular issue has arisen with real retail sales, discussed in today’s (February 20th) Commentary, along with the consumer price index (CPI).

“In addition to the various downside revisions to the economy in prior months and the reporting of weak-to-minus monthly activity in January, real retail sales (inflation-adjusted based on the CPI-U) clearly are signaling a recession.  Year-to-year change in the post-World War II series is plotted in the accompanying graph, and generally it has signaled a pending recession whenever growth dropped below 2.0%.  It hit 1.0% in January 2014, the strongest recession signal seen since September 2007.  The formal recession began in December 2007. …”

“Commentary Number 602, January CPI, Real retail Sales and Earnings,” John Williams, Shadowstats.com, 02/20/2014

[Indeed, monitoring the Preliminary Signals that the Big One is impending in recent Months has facilitated our making a series of Profitable Recommendations (Note 2 below). We aim to do the same for the Impending Big One.]

And other Data support the conclusion that it is a very High Probability that The Big One is Impending Soon.

It is important to note that the Dow topped at 16,588 on 12/31/13.

This is close to the 17,000 top which we forecast months ago.

And recently the Equities Market has been Rising on Declining Volume, but Declining on Rising Volume – a very Bearish Signal. Consider one specific example supporting the foregoing Bearish conclusion in addition to the ones we earlier laid out.

On Friday February 14, the Dow was up over 100 points (albeit on Negative Data) on Low Volume – a sign that Big Institutional Investors are Selling.

Nonetheless, short term, it is still somewhat more likely than not that there will be, one more brief Rally to a somewhat higher tops (e.g. closer to our Dow 17,000 Target). However, the Equities Market could nonetheless launch into The Great Crash at any time. Stay tuned for our forecasts.

BUT Regardless of whether The Crash starts now or in a few weeks, Equities Markets are putting in a Multi-year top .

Key Fundamentals, Technicals and Interventional confirm this.

In sum, given the Negative Fundamentals and Technicals, e.g., the Equities rising Bearish wedge and the Negative Divergence between the NYSE A/D line and stock prices, a Major Move Down of The Great Crash could begin at any time.

And here we issue one more Warning! There are many reasons to believe that The Coming Crash will be deeper and longer-lasting than the 2008-2009 Crash.

And it is important to Dispel One Other Deception/Delusion – that the Prospects for the Gold Price are Bearish. In fact, consider that ongoing Cartel (Note 3) Price Suppression attempts are being overwhelmed by Physical Demand.

Indeed, the Shortage of Physical Gold is intensifying. Asian and especially Chinese Buying and taking Delivery of Physical is at Record levels.

Couple that with China’s record January, 2014 lending y/o/y (also a 4 year high) and Fed Chair Yellen’s promise to Open the Monetary Spigots in the event of a slowdown, and one can see why Gold and Silver are rising. Inflation is on the Horizon.

Thus, our view is that a Great Launch Up is impending.

Also supporting this forecast is the fact that Gold recently closed above its 200 DMA.

Indeed, the Chinese think The Great Launch UP is coming soon and the following Credible Report so indicates:

“…how come there is such a big difference between Chinese demand reported by the WGC, 1066 tons, and wholesale demand, 2197 tons? Why is the WGC missing 1132 tons? One reason is because the Chinese are hiding it. Since 2008 the Chinese have great interest to hoard in the dark in order to diversify their US dollar reserves, strengthen their economy and protect it from external shocks. The China Gold Association (CGA) changed the way they measure demand and all other Chinese gold institutions ceased publishing reports on demand since 2011…

“Why consumer demand as presented to the world has been understated since 2008 is because the China Gold Association is manipulating the demand category net investment to suppress other categories like jewelry and bar.”

“The World Gold Council Clueless on Chinese Gold Demand?” In Gold We Trust

And lest one think that there is safety in “Cash” (i.e., in some Fiat Currency), consider Alasdair Macloed

“When US money supply measured by M2 stood at $11 trillion in December 2013, I calculate that total broad money of the next largest 50 countries ranked by GDP amounted to the equivalent of a further US$67 trillion at current exchange rates. And that's only on-balance sheet: we must add in global shadow banking, estimated by the Financial Stability Board to have been an extra $67 trillion in 2011, probably about $75 trillion today, given its recent rapid growth in China. So when we look at US broad money supply, we should be aware there is a further mountain of money thirteen times as big ultimately based on the dollar.

“As long as bank lending, industrial investment and consumption are all expanding, the sun smiles. It's when it stops that problems arise, and why markets reacted badly to the idea of tapering and are increasingly nervous about China's credit bubble and attempts to rein it in.

“More specifically the danger arises from a slow-down and possible reversal of cross-border investment, particularly with emerging economies. …

“So whatever analysis of individual countries might tell us, it has been easy to miss the threat of a deepening global recession, a risk increased by diminishing cross-border flows. What a time for the Fed and the Peoples Bank of China to decide to reduce the rate of monetary expansion for the two largest economies! These actions are too late to achieve the hoped-for orderly exit from excessive monetary expansion.

“If cross-border investment flows reverse, as they are now threatening to do, banks and multinational businesses will run for cover and the carry-trade will rapidly unwind. And when fear of losses finally triumphs over greed for profits the weaker currencies are usually the first to suffer.

“The relationship between these currencies and the dollar is now being tested in the markets. Eventually, of course, the Fed will have to resume unlimited monetary expansion to buy off a global economic and financial crisis. …

“The last crisis was just the banks. This time we are looking at a potential popping of a full-blown global currency bubble, which was generated as the solution to the last crisis. And this new bubble is all supported on an inflated US monetary base of $3.8 trillion. That's bubbly gearing of nearly 40 times, or 163 times the monetary base on the eve of the Lehman crisis.”

“All currencies are an inverse pyramid based on the dollar,” Alasdair Macloed, Goldmoney.com, 02/21/2014

Yes, indeed, The Fed will have to “resume unlimited monetary Expansion.” Consequence: The Purchasing Power of the $US will be destroyed and Gold and Silver Backed currencies (e.g., the Chinese Yuan), will Rule.

Do not allow Deceptions and Delusions to Impede your Preparation for Profit and Protection for what is Coming.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
February 21, 2014

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported February 20, 2014
1.5 8 %     /    9.17%

U.S. Unemployment reported February 7, 2014
6.6%     /     23.2%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported January 30, 2013
2.74%        /     -1.40%

U.S. M3 reported February 16 , 2014 (Month of January, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     3.0 7 % (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.54 4 Trillion!)

Note 2: Our attention to Key Timing Signals has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our six most recent:

100% Profit on Crude Oil Call on February 10, 2014 after 27 days (i.e., about 1400% Annualized)

30% Profit on Equity Index Puts on February 5, 2014 after 8 days (i.e., about 1440% Annualized)

55% Profit on Water Management Company on January 15, 2014 after 406 days (i.e., about 50% Annualized)

140% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 27, 2013 after just 10 days (i.e., about 5200% Annualized)

40% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 19, 2013 after just 2 days (i.e., about 7500% Annualized)

135% Profit on Equity Index Call on October 28, 2013 after just 13 days (i.e., about 3800% Annualized)

Note 3: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

 


Dangerous New World for Old Strategies

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“It isn’t what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.”

Will Rogers

Knowing what “ain’t so” is increasingly important for Investors and Traders Going Forward.

Indeed, going into 2014 perhaps the most important Realization to be made is that certain Grand Investment & Trading Strategies and Assumptions which were profitable in the past (e.g., in 2013) may well not be profitable in 2014 and beyond.

“People are right to fear Paper Money.”

Warren Buffet

For one, the ongoing Currency Wars – the Competitive Devaluation (i.e., loss of purchasing power) of Fiat Currencies by Central Banks – will be an increasingly important factor, as Warren Buffet tacitly acknowledges. The Assumption that Fiat Currencies are a Reliable “Store” of wealth will be increasingly questionable.

From a broader perspective than just currencies, consider that developing and intensifying Forces recently reflected in the Economy, Markets, and Interventions make it strongly advisable that Investors and Traders consider shifting their Investing/Trading Strategies, and especially so if their portfolios were profitable in 2013.

Since the Post-Crash (Beta) Rally began in March, 2009, stocks which were excellent Bargain Values by important (Alpha) Metrics (e.g. Price-Earnings, Price-to-Book, & Price to-Cash Flow Ratios) have soared. In other words, with Beta Trends supporting top Alpha Picks, the Alpha Picks have done very well. And Equities indices are still near record Highs.

But Markets are cyclical (in other words, Beta or Primary Trends change). And Major Primary Trend Changes in Key Sectors are Impending.

Indeed, even the best Alpha Picks do not necessarily perform well, and often perform poorly when Beta Turns Against them.

In other words, when Beta does not support Alpha, Beta usually Trumps Alpha.

Moreover, (and this Critical point is often missed) Dominant Beta Trends can be Bullish in some Sectors and Bearish in others. Thus Deepcaster always aims to identify which is Dominant in each Sector.

For example, important Metrics like Inflation must be measured on a Sector by Sector Basis. Financial Assets and Energy Costs have been Inflating since the 2008-2009 Crash. Not so in other Sectors.

Moreover, but when one considers the Overall Rate of inflation, one should use the Real Numbers (cf. Shadowstats.com – Note 2) and not Bogus Official Statistics.

Considering a related example, since March, 2009, Financial Assets (e.g. Stocks) have inflated so much due to Fed Stimulus (QE) that their Values are what Carl Icahn correctly calls a “Mirage”. Too True. And Fed QE has caused considerable Price Inflation which is not reflected in the Bogus Official Numbers. Real U.S. Price Inflation is 9.08% per Shadowstats.com.

The Fed QE created Beta Trend (Inflated Assets Values) not only lifts Great Alpha Picks to New Highs but mediocre ones as well. Un fortunately, it is not sustainable, and has created a Financial Assets Bubble.

A Rising Tide lifts all Boats. But when it ebbs…

As we forecast in 2013, Beta Trends are likely to Massively Change in 2014 in Several Key Sectors. And one Major Trend change reflects the fact that a Major Market Crash in Key Sectors is likely.

Moreover, moving into 2014, we expect such Apparent Trend changes to come more often and with more Volatility. This will necessitate a Change in Strategy for many. For one thing, profits not taken quickly are often profits lost.

For example, on December 31, 2013 the Primary Trend of most Equity Sectors was very Bullish.

But as of the end of January 2014, Many Sectors had turned Bearish.

And February 2014 has thus far brought another Bullish Pulse, and increasing Volatility.

In sum, 2014 and 2015 are likely to dramatically demonstrate once again the Truth of the Adage “Buy and Hold rarely Works Anymore.” Conversely Position Trading in and out with a Multi-week rather than Multi-year Horizon does work, at least for those who wish to make and take profits, before they disappear. See our Recent Profits Taken record below to demonstrate this. (Note 1)

Now Consider certain other Key Mega-Strategy Shift Recommendations.

The U.S., Chinese, and to a somewhat lesser extent, the Eurozone economies are presently (perceived to be) the world’s strongest. But, this apparent strength is “what we know that ain’t so.”

But with nearly $3 Trillion in Vulnerable Shadow Bank Debt and a Commitment to slowing “Bridges to Nowhere” Infrastructure Spending and to increase Domestic Consumption, China is already, and promises to continue to be somewhat less of a Stimulus to Global Economic Growth than it has been.

Couple the foregoing with The Fed’s fulfilling its commitment temporarily (we seriously doubt it will last) to Tapering i.e., less Stimulus, and it is no surprise that Commodity Currency (i.e., Emerging Market) Countries (most of which supply China) and especially the Weakest Peripheral Countries’ Currencies have Crashed lately – cf. Argentina, Turkey and South Africa. But the Key Point is that the Currency Risk is not limited to Emerging Markets but ultimately extends to the Over-indebted USA and Eurozone Currencies too, because, to a degree, the USA’s and Eurozone’s Economies are tied to China’s too.

This is consistent with our forecasts for the $US and Euro, and Major Economies in General.

Considering Equities, after a down January 2014, the Dow and Transports show momentum shifting to the upside thus far in February. Indeed, we have recently forecast the Targets and Duration for this “February Rally.”

But Longer term, This January ’s Markets swoon is a harbinger of what is coming. The Underlying Economic/Structural Weakness of the U.S. and Eurozone Economies has begun to rear its Ugly Head. Coupled with a Realization of the Interlinked Nature of virtually all Major Economies (e.g. China’s slowdown effect on the USA and Eurozone), with consequent increased Recent Volatility , Major Trend changes to come in Key Sectors are predictable.

In the process of reconsidering “Old” Strategies, those who have not/do not see Gold as Safe Haven and Profit Opportunity ought to take a second look. Regarding Gold, Gold consumption in China topped 1,000 tonnes last year – growing to 1,176.4 tones with bullion demand soaring 57% – all records.

No surprise then that Gold recently broke through Major Resistance at $1275 and $1300 per ounce– The Chinese and Indians are intensifying buying and taking possession of physical, and that is driving up the price despite ongoing Cartel (Note 3) Price Suppression attempts.

In light of the following Notes from JBGJ, is it true what some claim that Gold would have to clear at least $1350 per ounce to conclusively establish an uptrend? In that connection, it is our view that there are two recent developments which make a continued Launch Up likely sooner than claimed.

We quote JBGJ:

“India’s trade deficit narrows to $9.92 bn on 77% drop in gold imports   reports  

“‘The trade ministry said it had recommended easing curbs on gold imports, prompted by the brighter trade picture.’

“JBGJ continues to think that the end of India’s gold interdiction will be the big surprise of 2014.”

“China Surprises the Bears. Next, India?” John Brimelow, Early GJ 02/10/2014

“‘Appetite from China has so far surprised on the upside. While historical seasonal patterns imply a slowdown post the Chinese New Year, interest this week seems to suggest otherwise. Volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange were very strong yesterday at 31 tonnes and this was corroborated by the demand we saw based on our own flows…

“‘This positive surprise from gold’s largest physical market certainly helps and is particularly encouraging considering these higher price levels.’

“It is worth remembering that Chinese demand in this order of magnitude is a new event the global gold market.”

Ibid.

Will we Precious Metal Partisans have to suffer one more Multi-Week Cartel Engineered Takedown, in light of the fact that Gold and Silver Paper Prices are increasingly resistant to ongoing Cartel Takedown Attempts? It is still entirely possible, but increasingly less likely as the days pass.

In our view, the early 2014 Gold Rise is The Harbinger of the Price Explosion to come soon. And since The Big Launch appears to be near, NOW is an excellent buying Opportunity.

The Physical Shortage is just too Critical. And Sonia Ghandi, head of India’s (the World’s 2 nd largest Importer) Congress party recently criticized the Indian Governments Persecution of Gold Merchants via Tariffs.

Moreover, Billionaire Eric Sprott recently demonstrated the Central Banks can not successfully continue their Gold Price Suppression Throughout 2014, because they are running out of Sufficient Physical Supplies to meet demand.

The Foregoing are all Key Harbingers of the Gold and Silver Price Explosion to Come soon.

Ultimately, we agree with the Strategy reflected in Neil Collins’s Financial Times Article (01/24/14) “Demand Physical Gold” because one Day Paper Price Manipulation will end “catastrophically.”

Finally, regarding that Most Honest Indicator (and one which should be central to strategic planning going forward), the Crude Oil price, we recently correctly forecast Crude’s Rally back up to $100/bbl.

Strategically speaking, if the February Equities Rally continues in the next very few weeks, we expect Crude to Rally on up beyond $100 perhaps even to $110ish. World Demand is still increasing, and above-ground supplies are tight, and the US has an increasing above-ground Crude and Distillate shortage.

Indeed, unsurprisingly to us, OPEC estimated that World Demand has now risen to 90 Million/bbl/day – a record.

Emblematic of many Trend Changes which we forecast, only the next Episode of The Great Equities Crash will likely serve to deflate Crude Demand, and thus Prices, significantly once again, but only for a while.

To Profit and protect, “Old” Strategies and Assumptions, must at the very least be reconsidered.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
February 14, 2014

Note 1: Finally! The Great Launch in a Key Sector is likely finally about to begin!

And this Rocket Launch should provide Mammoth Profits to those who jump on the Rocket soon.

Therefore, we made a Buy Recommendation for stock in a company with at least 300% Profit Potential selling for only a little over $1 per share.

To see why we think the Launch Rocket is igniting and our Buy Recommendation, read Deepcaster’s recent Alert, “Great Opportunity Launch! Buy Reco! Forecasts: Gold & Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates,” posted in ‘Alerts Cache’ at Deepcaster.com.

Btw, our attention to Key Timing Signals has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our six most recent:

100% Profit on Crude Oil Call on February 10, 2014 after 27 days (i.e., about 1400% Annualized)

30% Profit on Equity Index Puts on February 5, 2014 after 8 days (i.e., about 1440% Annualized)

55% Profit on Water Management Company on January 15, 2014 after 406 days (i.e., about 50% Annualized)

140% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 27, 2013 after just 10 days (i.e., about 5200% Annualized)

40% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 19, 2013 after just 2 days (i.e., about 7500% Annualized)

 

135% Profit on Equity Index Call on October 28, 2013 after just 13 days (i.e., about 3800% Annualized)

 

Note 2: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported January 16, 2014
1.5%     /    9.08%

U.S. Unemployment reported February 7, 2014
6.6%     /     23.2%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported January 30, 2013
2.74%        /     -1.40%

U.S. M3 reported February 7, 2014 (Month of January, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     3.04% (est) (i.e . , total M3 Now at $15.54 Trillion!)

Note 3: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

 


Surmounting Hostile Incoming

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: Untagged 

Deepcaster

 

“…If you view the progressive financial breakdown in America as some kind of ‘comedy of errors’ or a trial of unlucky coincidences, then there is not much I can do to educate you on the reasons behind the carnage. If, however, you understand that there is a deliberate motivation behind American collapse, then what I have to say here will not fall on biased ears.

“The financial crash of 2008, the same crash which has been ongoing for years, is NOT an accident. It is a concerted and engineered crisis meant to position the U.S. for currency disintegration and the institution of a global basket currency controlled by an unaccountable supranational governing body like the International Monetary Fund (IMF. The American populace is being conditioned through economic fear to accept the institutionalization of global financial control and the loss of sovereignty….

“The Final Swindle of Private American Wealth Has Begun,” lemetropolecafe.com, Brandon Smith, 02/04/2014

Though we do not know for sure whether the ongoing Crisis is “concerted & engineered”, that is certainly one reasonable interpretation.

We do know that there is precedent for Mega-Bank “Bail-ins” (i.e. confiscation) of Depository Accounts (cf. Cyprus and Poland) and Super-priority payments to Mega-Banks, (cf. MFGlobal) in the event of another Financial Crisis, as we and others, especially the Redoubtable Attorney and Analyst Ellen Brown, have noted.

And now we hear, in the SOTU no less, that Americans are invited to stash their wealth (such as they have left) in MYRAs, which presumably will hold Treasury Securities.

- Securities which depreciate as inflation increases.

And Investors have to cope with other “incoming” as well including Real Inflation of about 9%, Real Unemployment of 23% per ShadowStats.com.

And also we have suppression of P.M. prices. But there is a strategy for Surmounting all this Incoming and Profiting. At best American Holders of MYRA are likely to Suffer loss from inflation, and at worse loss of principal.

But arguably the more serious Incoming Threat is the Ongoing Destruction of the Purchasing Power of the $US by the private for-profit US Fed’s policies.

Consider further, Brandon Smith’s view.

If you understand that the goal of the Fed and the globalists is to dismantle the dollar and the U.S. economic system to make way for something ‘new,’ then certain recent events and policy initiatives do start to make sense….

“I stand more on the position that the Fed taper was begun in preparation for a slowdown in global markets. In fact, I believe central bankers have been well aware that a decline in every sector was coming, and are moving to insulate themselves.

“Look at it this way: The taper program distances the bankers from responsibility for any dramatic changes in our financial framework, at least in the eyes of the general public…. The Fed is creating space between itself and the economy because they know that a trigger event is coming. They want to ensure that they are not blamed and that stimulus itself is not seen as ineffective.

“We all know that the claims of recovery are utter nonsense….

“The MyRa program turns the general American public into a new cash stream, but there’s more going on here than meets the eye…

“And, are they offering the MyRA program as an easy outlet (or trap) for people to pour in what little savings they have as panic over declining equities accelerates?

“Second, the program is currently voluntary, but what if the plan is to make it mandatory? Obama has already signed mandatory health insurance ‘taxation’ into law, which is meant to steal a portion of every paycheck….

“…is this a deliberate strategy to corral the last vestiges of private American wealth into the corner of U.S. bonds, so that this wealth can be confiscated or annihilated?...

“The goal of globalists is to engineer desperation. To create a catastrophe and then force the masses to beg for help….”

Ibid.

We should emphasize that a form of Confiscation is already ongoing in the form of devaluation of the $US as revealed in the Real (as opposed to the Bogus Official Numbers) Inflation Numbers provided by Shadowstats.com. (See Note 1)

Another “Hostile Incoming” Threat is noted in Tyler Durden’s Analysis of the MYRA program — Increasing State Control of Wealth, Via (in the Case of MYRA) Nationalization of Retirement Savings, a Threat which we have earlier noted as well.

“ Simply put, the new myRA program put forward by Obama is at best a sucker's deal… or worse, it's a first step toward the nationalization of private retirement savings… .

“ Even before the new myRA program was announced, there had been whispers about the need for the US government to assume some risk for US retirement accounts. That's code for forced conversion of private retirement assets into government bonds… .

“ Of course, you can only invest in government-approved investments—like Treasuries—which probably won't even come close to keeping up with the real rate of inflation. It's like Jim Grant says: ‘ return-free risk. ’

“ In reality, a myRA doesn't really provide any significant new benefits over existing options… .

“ The net effect is the funneling of more capital to Treasury securities and thus helping the US government finance itself… .”

“The Countdown to the Nationalization of Retirement Savings Has Begun,” zerohedge.com, Tyler Durden, 02/05/2014

Yet another Hostile Incoming is a product of the Ongoing Currency Wars whereby Central Banks try to outdo each other in devaluing their Currencies. This provides temporary help to Exporters and over indebted governments but ultimately will (and in many cases has already) generated inflation.

Couple Currency Devaluation with the excesses created by the artificially low interest rates created by The Fed, QE, and one has a recipe for trouble as the Fed has begun to Taper down Stimuli. The trouble has first been obvious in Emerging Markets and has already resulted in Sudden weakness in Argentina, South African, and Turkish Currencies.

“ This Turkish cautionary tale should warn investors that the emerging-market crisis is not over. And no market -- not even the U.S.’ -- is quarantined from the damage… “ Many U.S. companies sell into emerging markets. After currency crashes, imports become unaffordable. Economies downsize and de-globalize. “ Such are the consequences of credit bubbles. Credit bubbles cannot inflate to economy-wrecking scales if they weren’t built on a foundation set by central banks. “ Here’s the sequence of events:

  • Central banks manipulate interest rates below where they would have been established in a free market
  • Bankers and borrowers go wild
  • Near the peak of the bubble, central banks tighten mildly
  • Awareness spreads that central banks -- not genuine savings -- funded the credit bubble
  • Investors sell and/or repatriate their assets
  • Calls for renewed central bank easing grow louder and louder.

“ Right now, we are somewhere between steps three and four in the above sequence. This week’s additional QE taper of $10 billion per month will prompt more investors to look for the exits. Stay defensive… ”

Strategic Short Report, 01/31/2014

So how does one surmount all the foregoing Hostile incoming.

We have long and repeatedly advocated buying Inflation–resistant Assets such as a Interests in Productive Farmland, and Water Supply/Management Resources.

And we have long advocated being buyers of Gold & Silver, with much of it held in Physical Form (e.g. Coins, bars) in one’s personal possession (i.e. Outside of the Banking System.), with some Interests in Quality Miners as well.

But it is becoming increasingly widely known that a Fed-led Banking Cartel has for years and is engaged in the Suppression if the Price of Gold & Silver. (See Note 2)

Nonetheless, the Cartel’s Price Suppression Efforts plus increasing demands from China & India have resulted in a great and increasing shortage of Physical Metal with which to make Delivery of Actual Physical.

As Brien Lundin points out.

“COMEX gold warehouse stocks have been falling dramatically, apparently in response to the massive increase in Asian gold demand (which was itself sparked by the price-takedown fostered on the COMEX exchange.)

“When you consider this along with the fact that the “gold cover” (the number of putative owners for each ounce of physical Registered gold on hand at the COMEX) has soared to an incredible 110 “owners per ounce,” then you see that the U.S. paper gold market is dancing along the precipice of potential default.

And someone may be trying to push it over the edge.”

Think of it! 110 “Owners” of each Ounce of Physical Gold in the COMEX! Suppose only a few more of them decide to demand Delivery. It is only a matter of time before the COMEX fails to make Delivery.

The COMEX will have to Default & the price of Gold will skyrocket. The market is approaching the point of No return. This is why Deepcaster provides Forecast for the timing of these Events & the prospective Equities Crash in our letters and Alerts.

Even MSM has begun to Report on the Suppression of the Gold prices. Note the following from the August Financial Times.

“From the FT’s Neil Collins: ‘Learn from Buba and demand delivery for true price of gold: One day the ties that bind the actual and the traded commodity will snap’.”

“The FT Goes There: ‘Demand Physical Gold’ As One Day Paper Price Manipulation Will End ‘Catastrophically’,” zerohedge.com, Tyler Durden, 01/25/2014

In sum to surmount Hostile Incoming acquire interests in Inflation-Resistant Assets, such as Food, Water & Gold.

Best regards,

Deepcaster

February 7, 2014

 

Note 1:

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported January 16, 2014
1.5% / 9.08%

U.S. Unemployment reported January 10, 2014
6.7% / 23.3%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported December 20, 2013
1.97% / -1.70%

U.S. M3 reported January 3, 2014 (Month of December, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 3.32% (est . ) (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.512 Trillion!)

From Shadowstats.com

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


The Truth Is – I Just Don’t Know

Posted by: FusionEnterprise

Tagged in: Untagged 

FusionEnterprise

I tend to read people with whom I agree.  I confess.  This flies directly in the face of my posting about Critical Thinking.  But that is not to say that I am oblivious to the main stream media and their message about recovery, and the falling unemployment rate and their take on the relevancy of the price of gold.  I take note of the views on printing money out of thin air – oops, I’m sorry – Quantitative Easing and how it doesn’t really spell doom for the dollar.  I listen to commentators applaud Bernanke for saving our hide by coming up with innovative ways to prop up the dollar and the banking system.

I also can read a graph, and when I look at graphs published by the Fed itself, I can only come to one conclusion.  This cannot end well.  Now in the universe of people that I agree with on this point, there is a lot of chatter about how that end will play out.  Some call it a great Reset where the value of the dollar will plummet and it will either be replaced by a new face, or it will be devalued significantly to allow for the $17 Trillion debt to be serviced.  Some refer to a Great Unwinding, where $200 Trillion dollars worth of obligations unravel into a pile of paper with no intrinsic value.  Some see us Falling Off a Cliff and collapsing into chaos, martial law, toilet paper shortages, travel restrictions and a repudiation of retirement fund obligations.

And then there are those who can also read a graph but maintain that we are not in a 100 year long Ponzi  Scheme and that things will get worse, but we will not Reset or Unwind or Fall off a Cliff.  The dollar will lose its Reserve Currency status and this will affect our standard of living, but the dollar will still be a dollar and it will survive as our sovereign currency.  I call this the “muddle our way through” view and it assumes that no one will question 400 to 1 pay ratios that used to be 10 to 1, that the falling middle class will keep clawing and defending our democratic form of government and a capitalist system that rewards those who make us more productive.

This is where it is prudent to step back and take a longer view.  How does a fiat paper system fare when a government resorts to unbridled printing of new money?  How is it possible to dump thousands of tons of gold into the market in order to artificially keep the price down for fifty years, and then persuade people to believe that gold is not money?  That the citizens of India and China are deluded and they will see their gold and silver wealth crushed by a piece of paper with the face of a dead President on it?  That Fort Knox being empty is of no consequence?  That the paper profits making many bankers and financial traders billionaires were justified because they helped fuel our prosperity for 50 years?

The long historical view says to me, that this will not end well.  The dollar will lose its Reserve Status.  There will be a Bretton Woods like conference, and those with the gold will sit at the head of the table and those with empty vaults and piles of derivatives and notes and credit default swaps will sit at the foot of the table.  Bretton Woods is 70 years old this year.  Look it up and study why the dollar was given Reserve Currency status.  And while you’re at it, look up Petro-dollars and the WTO and the suppression of gold prices and how insurance is used to hedge gambling by banks. 

Yes, Critical Thinkers study history.  And the main stream media is selling us short and feeding us the company line.  The people charged with regulating our markets are turning a blind eye to overt manipulation that a fifth grader could recognize if shown 365 daily graphs.  Unemployment figures are presented with a straight face, with no attention being given to the falling levels of total employment and the falling income levels.  Inflation numbers are fudged and then fudged some more.  Yes, I conclude that it will not end well.

But I don’t pretend to know what that means and anyone who says they do is just guessing.  I don’t know if there will be a cliff or just a steady march to the bottom.  I don’t know if people will rise to the occasion and start a million local businesses that restore our productivity or if instead we are locked down by martial law to keep starving people from roaming the countryside.  I don’t know if banks will be propped up indefinitely or whether they will at last be allowed to fall into ruin.

What I do know is this.  There are things we can do that are prudent under any scenario.  Get out of debt, grow food, look for ways to be productive and form communities.  I will close with a paragraph from my very first blog entry in February 2012:

“My conclusion is that by Visualizing Intrinsic Value Alignment (VIVA) we can embark upon a journey that is appropriate for all prophetic outcomes.  For me this means I want to grow more of my own food.  Will that serve me and my family if the world economy falls apart?  Yes.  Will it still serve me if we muddle on much like we have for the last five years? Yes.  Will it serve if energy becomes scarce?  Yes.  I cannot imagine many scenarios where growing more of my own food will not be of great benefit to my well being.  I can then cast aside Future Fear and live according to my intrinsic values which assumes of course my values align with a system of productivity in community and not with derivatives and fiat currency.”

http://visualizingintrinsicvaluealignment.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-truth-is-i-just-dont-know.html

 

 

 


Critical Forecast Signals

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“U.S. Major markets will Implode, if Emerging Markets Implode.”

Jim Sinclair

Sinclair’s claim is correct, but the Markets’ recent Negative Reaction to Argentina’s Devaluation and Turkey’s Massive Rate Increase provides us one Superb Forecasting Signal.

Indeed, so far in 2014 the Markets have provided us with several Superb Forecast Signals in Key Sectors.

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”

John Templeton

John Templeton’s wise observation is Relevant given the Markets’ Euphoria on January 30, and that Euphoria provide yet another “Signal”.

But the Euphoria and the Risks and The Key Signals they provide Increase almost Daily. Indeed, (as if “Bail in” Threats to retirement and other accounts were not real enough already) we have earlier warned about the U.S. Government encouraging/forcing Citizen to “Invest” in depreciating U.S. Treasuries whose yield is well below the Real Inflation Rate.. Well, Consider President Obama’s State of the Union

“…the offer that the President of the United States floated last night…

“…his new “MyRA” program. And the aim is simple – dupe unwitting Americans to plow their retirement savings into the US government’s shrinking coffers.”

“IRA Confiscation: it’s happening” Simon Black, Sovereign Man, 1/29/14

This and other Signals provide us a Road Map for highly likely future performance for certain Key Sectors. Indeed, one Sector is Signaling it is ready to Reverse VERY SOON and make a very Major Move. Consider what the Signals tell us about the Sectors we cover.

We have a Buy Reco. aimed at Profiting from it posted on our website.

Every Investment or Trading Decision necessarily implies that two prior forecasts have been made: 1.) that the future economic and financial environment will be conducive to success and 2.) that the particular Investment or Trade is likely to be profitable in that environment.

Thus Quality Forecasting is essential to Investment and Trading Success.

We should be grateful.

The Friday, Janaury 24, 2014 Equities sell-off was not so much about China’s weak Manufacturing survey, or the ongoing mixed earnings season, or the prospect of continued tapering (though those were factors).

Rather it had more to do with concern over how much Stress China would allow in its Shadow Banking System. China Credit Trust warned Investors that a 3 Billion Renminbi Trust Product might not be repaid when it matures January 31. China Credit is a Shadow Bank, a lender outside the Official Banking Sector. And many other Chinese Shadow Banks have looming Default Risk.

Loans by China’s Shadow Banks are estimated to total some $3 Trillion – fully one third of the Credit outstanding in China. And Defaults in That System could ripple throughout China and the World.

And since China, along with the USA, is widely regarded as an Engine of Future Growth, if it sneezes the whole world get an Economic Cold. This is probably why a Mysterious Entity (read Bank of China) just stepped in to guarantee much but not all of China’s Credit Trust’s Debt.

As the World’s second largest Economy and Massive Resource Consumer, a Sputtering China would have Ramifications throughout virtually every sector. Therefore note well that China’s manufacturing showed its first contraction in six months – yet another Critical Forecast Signal.

Jim Sinclair’s is thus correct to claim that “U.S. Major markets will Implode, if Emerging Markets Implode.”

Indeed , our Mid and Long Term Forecasts for a Major Market Crash in 2014 have been thus Far spot-on Correct.

Last week’s 600 Point drop in the Dow is the First Major Harbinger of The Great Crash we have been forecasting for Months. We are just seeing The Beginning of The Beginning.

Of course, Crashes very rarely occur all at once, which is one of several reasons we expect a short-lived Rally to begin in the next few days. In Bear Markets one must get in and out quickly to accommodate the Multiple Sharp Reversals.

In sum, regarding Equities in general, the maxim: “Buy and Hold rarely works anymore” will be proven true in 2014 once again.

Thus we reiterate:

Given the Negative Fundamentals and Technicals, e.g. the Equities rising Bearish wedge and the Negative Divergence between the NYSE A/D line and stock prices, a Major Move Down of The Great Crash could begin at any time. Indeed we recently recommended buying puts in one subsector because we expect it to Crash before the others, and very soon.

Regarding Gold as Safe Haven with Great Profit Potential during a Crash, consider that one Necessary Condition we earlier indicated for Gold’s Rallying is one or more Exogenous Events which emphasize its Importance as The Safe Haven Currency.

Last week we got several -- China’s Shadow Banks, heightened Risks reflected in the Equities market Mini-Crash, and Emerging Markets Currency Weakness including a Collapse of Argentina’s Peso.

So, mid and long-term Gold is headed for $3000 and eventually much higher, as we forecast, and Notwithstanding ongoing Cartel (Note 1) Attempts at Price Suppression. Very short term the Precious Metals Markets will continue to be Tricky.

The Physical Shortage is just too Critical. And Sonia Ghandi, head of India’s (the World’s 2nd largest Importer) Congress party recently criticized the Indian Governments Persecution of Gold Merchants via Multiple Tariffs. Moreover, Billionaire Eric Sprott recently demonstrated the Central Banks can not successfully continue their Gold Price Suppression Throughout 2014, because they are running out of Sufficient Physical Supplies.

Consider Jim Brown’s perceptive comments at Option Investor

“Don’t look now but the physical gold shortage is growing. Everyone knows that JP Morgan is one of the biggest gold holders on the planet. They store gold for themselves and others. On Thursday JPM reported the single largest withdrawal in history at -321,500 ounces. Actually that was a tie with December 13 th, 2012 when exactly 321,500 ounces were also withdrawn. Registered god in JPM vaults has fallen to the lowest level in history at 87,000 ounces. Registered gold at all Comex warehouses has hit a new low at 400,000 ounces. Comex claims there is a huge 92 owners per registered ounce today. Registered ounces are available for delivery to settle futures contracts. In other words the registered ounces are all this is backing up the existing futures contracts. Since the majority of futures contracts are never held until the delivery date there are tens of thousands more contracts than actual gold. If everyone suddenly began delivery of the gold referenced by the futures contracts we would be in serious trouble.  

“On January 17 th there were roughly 500,000 registered ounces. At that time there were 111.6 owners per ounce. There are currently 41.309 million ounces being traced through futures contracts. This is ‘paper gold’ not real gold. Where else but America could we be trading 41 million ounces of futures against 500,000 registered ounces? Obviously if only a fraction of the holders of those futures contracts began demanding delivery the price of gold would be much higher.

“We are currently seeing all-time lows in registered gold and all-time highs in claims against that gold. What is wrong with this picture?”

Option Investor

And China’s Imports are Massively Increasing.

“China's 2013 gold imports from Hong Kong more than doubled from the previous year to reach a record of more than 1,000 tonnes as a sharp fall in prices led to unprecedented demand.

“China imported about 1,158.162 tonnes from Hong Kong, compared with 557.478 tonnes in 2012, overtaking India to become the world's biggest gold buyer.”

“China imports record gold volume from Hong Kong in 2013” Reuters, 1/27/14

The Foregoing are Harbingers of Key Sectors’ impending major moves as well as the Gold Price Explosion to Come.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
January 30, 2014

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


Are MiLords Stupid?

Posted by: FusionEnterprise

Tagged in: Untagged 

FusionEnterprise

Yes it is true.  Greed by the 1% has gone over the top and the Ponzi scheme known as fiat currency in a debt based fractional reserve asset chain is about to fall.  Not content with 10 to 1 income disparities prevalent in the 1960’s, the 1% have used the unlimited power of the printing press to create layers upon layers of rehypothecation, derivatives and credit default swaps to effect 400 to 1 ratios, thereby dooming the economy.  I suspect that MiLords, the .1%, (see blog entry MiLords Are Not United for a fuller definition) are not happy that the game is ending prematurely due to unbridled greed by the foot soldiers of the Oligarchy, the merely rich 1%.  But does that mean that MiLords are stupid?  Have they lost control of their own game?  Is the Oligarchy about to fall along with the dollar?

At first glance it would appear that a strategy that sacrifices a currency that has reigned supreme as the world Reserve Currency since 1944 is not very smart.  That shipping all the gold in Fort Knox to China is not very good preparation for the reset defined by the next financial conference that will supplant Bretton Woods.  That killing the golden goose by allowing the manufacturing base to deteriorate and be replaced by The Great Wall-Mart of China, is short sighted.  This is a strategy that bespeaks of goals for a single lifetime, not the visionary foresight of an Oligarchy entrenched for centuries.

 

So are the MiLords who control such things really being that stupid?  Are they being replaced by a patient China forging a dynasty that will last a century?  Will the next Bretton Woods be held in Hong Kong with a gold backed Yuan emerging as the new standard?  Are we on the brink of the creation of a new world order?  Or are MiLords way ahead of us all, dumbing us down with bad diets and trinkets from Wal-Mart?  Do they have a plan that relegates China to the status of the merely rich? 

I don’t know the answer.  I don’t even know if I am asking the right question.  I do not begin to know how to factor in the nuclear chess game, or the impact of China’s own banking problems or the effects of tribalism when the pillars of the world come down.  I also wonder if Rothschild would have been able to control the markets if the Battle of Waterloo could have been reported on the internet.  All of this is above my pay grade. 

So I would like to shift the question away from the IQ of MiLords and take a serious look at us.  Are we the 5% (that is all that it would take I think) smart?  Are we awake?  Are we diligent enough to uncover the game?  MiLords are wearing no clothes.  Can we strip away their cloak of invisibility?   Do we care enough about shaping the coming new world order to arise out of our stupor and engage the enemy of ignorance?  Are we too lazy, too apathetic, too blind to challenge what is? 

Maybe the task is not to name MiLords.  Maybe the task is to name the 5%.  Not to form a movement that is subject to the “Iron Law of Oligarchy,” but to create a consciousness that permeates the air.  Oxygenated air that is rich in knowledge that burns with Critical Thinking. Do we need a symbol that we can draw with our toe in the dust to self identify?

 

China has a plan.  MiLords may have a plan.  But it may not matter if there is a great awakening.  I repeat the tag line for this blog:

“The Opportunity to shape the artifacts of our lives into forms that align our goals with our values and complete our humanity has never been greater.”

 

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Rehypothecation And The Shadow Banking System

Posted by: FusionEnterprise

Tagged in: Untagged 

FusionEnterprise

To hypothecate an asset is to pledge it against a loan or liability without turning it over to the lender.  If we borrow against a property in the game of Monopoly, we don’t deliver the property to the bank, we simply turn over the deed as a symbol of our hypothecation.  Pawn shops don’t accept hypothecation, they want the watch or the ring or the gun.  They want real collateral in their possession.  Quality collateral is that which more than covers the extent of the liability.  When a loan is “under water,” or “upside down,” it is no longer backed by quality collateral.

If the bank holding such a pledge uses it to secure another transaction by pledging (rehypothecating) it to another bank and that bank uses that pledge to pledge it to another, we call this a collateral chain and at some point it becomes difficult to determine who really owns what.  Quality collateral ceases to exist.  The word chain can be likened to a pyramid or Ponzi scheme as the links between the owner and the property become ever fainter.  The wealth effect of money creation by The Federal Reserve has now been extended to other asset classes such as land, houses, precious metals, etc.

The Federal Reserve was established to create money backed by debt.  Loaning money at interest and then reloaning it as it is repaid and reloaning it again, has the effect of creating new money.  The more times it turns over in a year the more the money supply expands.  We call this the velocity of money.  For about 60 years the money supply was allowed to grow at a moderate rate, allowing the 1% to get rich but not too rich.  Then in 1971 Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard and in the following years the link between the dollar and quality collateral grew ever fainter.

To compound the matter, while the money supply started to grow at a much faster pace (1971 – 2008), The Shadow Banking System was given more and more freedom to set up elaborate collateral chains which in turn generated obscene bonuses for the bankers who racked up enormous paper profits out of thin air.  This out of control banking system crashed in 2008 and in an effort to prop up the corpse The Federal Reserve began to pump enormous amounts of money/debt into the market.  They didn’t call it printing money out of thin air, they instead called it Quantitative Easing.  So we went from dollars backed by gold, to dollars backed only by Treasury Notes purchased by banks all over the world, to dollars backed by … nothing. 

The money supply grew from near zero to $100 billion from 1913 to 1971.  It increased eight fold to $800 billion by 2008, a dangerous pattern.  The system crashed as junk collateral was pawned off as quality collateral. The criminals who perpetrated this hoax have been deemed too big to jail by the Attorney General of the United States of America.  In the next five years the money supply passed $3,700 billion, a curve so steep it looks like a wall.  Meanwhile the income differential between CEO’s of large corporations and the average worker under them went from 10 times to 400 times.  Billionaires on Wall Street proliferated at an alarming rate.

Why did the world financial system continue to buy into this thing called Reserve Currency, defined by Bretton Woods and denominated in US dollars?  Why was it possible to establish Petro-dollars as the only way to buy oil even after the gold standard was dismantled?  The answer is complex and involves complicity of the Banksters who manage The Shadow Banking System all over the western world.  In the final analysis it hinges on the web of rehypothecation underlying the paper empires created by banks.  The disintegration of collateral.  And one big lie.

The lie was that we still have the gold.  In fact the whole system depended on keeping the price of gold from going through the roof.  The dollar cannot have value if it is too weak to buy gold.  So for decades the Banksters manipulated gold in the market - leasing it, hypothecating it, rehypothecating it, shorting it, leveraging it, burying it in paper contracts and yes even selling it outright to flood the market.  Until there is no gold left in the vaults.  The stash of thousands of tons belonging to the citizens of America and to other countries who gave it to us for safe keeping, is gone. 

Today for every ounce of real gold, there are 100 ounces of paper gold.  And the real gold now lives in India and China.  China will call the shots at the next Bretton Woods conference and it will not be held in New Hampshire. 

Let us be clear about two things.  Quantitative Easing is nothing more than printing money out of thin air.  And rehypothecation is nothing more than confiscating an asset and throwing it into a bottomless abyss, a mire known as the shadow banking system.

It is an elaborate scheme to transfer wealth to a few, the few that I am calling MiLords (the .1% or mil or one in a thousand). Quality collateral is nowhere to be found and this elaborate paper scheme to defraud the masses is about to unravel.  Beware.

Do not let fancy words invented to disguise crime fool you.  Do not let the rule of law be subverted by companies too big to fail led by executives too big to jail.  Do not let the Banksters point the finger at gold hoarders, or whistle blowers, or food stamp recipients.  Do not let the false battle between Republicans and Democrats pull attention away from the real issue. 

The Federal Reserve and its minions are perpetrating a giant fraud, selling the American people down the Yellow River for 30 pieces of gold.  Bad analogy.  They have sold all the gold in Fort Knox for 30 years of unbridled wealth accretion and if the truth be told they are guilty of treason. 

Rehypothecation indeed!

 

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Climacterics Now

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“We view prospective near-term and multi-year returns as strongly unfavorable, and prospective market risk as unusually elevated.”

John Hussman, January 2014

Choppy, decidedly Unbullish Equities Market Action thus far in 2014 is one Major Clue the Climacterics we earlier forecast have arrived in Key Markets. They may take a few days to a few weeks to fully develop, but they have arrived.

For example, on Wednesday, January 8, 2014 we forecast Major Reversals in Key sectors. We identified some of the Signals that such Reversals were impending.

Sure enough, two days later those Key Sectors gave us a Foretaste of those moves — a Dramatic Preview of what is coming

Developments since January 8 verified the Reality of what we have been claiming for weeks, a Market Moving Truth denied publically by major governments and much of the Main Stream Media – the fact that the Economy is not recovering.

Indeed, Deepcaster and a few other Independent Analysts have been claiming for months that the Economy is not recovering. (See Note 1)

And Friday, January 10’s shockingly-below-estimates Employment numbers confirmed our claims. Real Retail Sales and Real Weekly Earnings also declined in December.

Predictably, the lousy numbers caused the US$ to swoon on Friday and bonds to strengthen and Gold and Silver to pop up.

Even more significant, when Equities crashed on Monday (01/13), the $US also Fell. This confirms the fact that the $US is decreasingly seen as a Risk Aversion Haven as it would have been in past years. Not a Good Harbinger for the $US going Forward.

Importantly, last Friday’s and the subsequent Monday’s Equities moves and the resulting Moves in other Markets foreshadow Major moves to come in the next very few months, except that when the $US dumping becomes quite severe, US Treasury Bond Strength will weaken dramatically as Sovereign and Major Investors exit U.S. Treasury paper en masse.

However, the $US strengthened again (basis USDX) after the January 10 and 13 Equities Takedown Indeed, Short-term the structural weakness of the Euro and unresolved Eurozone problems and the ostensible Recovery of the US Economy should keep the $US above 78 basis USDX for a while longer, but not for the long term.

Going forward, consider that in order to keep long term interest rates low the Fed will have to continue Bond Buying via QE (i.e., Stop tapering), and eventually increase, QE. Notice how a three-% yield on the ten-year is the “line in the sand” for the Bond Market. Indeed, But in our most recent Alert we noted a stunning repeated correlative Market Move when the US 10Yr Note Yield is threatening to go over 3% on the 10 Year – The Correlated Move provides A Superb Profit Opportunity for sure, going forward.

Longer term, as QE continues, investors will need a refuge from QE-generated Monetary Price Inflation and a Profit and Wealth Preservation Opportunity as well, and thus will have to flee to Tangible Assets.

No surprise then that the CRB Commodity Index was up on the lousy U.S. Economic News in a counterintuitive Move. Commodities Price Strength is in the cards at least until Equities top later this year.

Later, as Equities Crash, Commodities used for building (e.g., Dr. Copper) will swoon too.

However, given World Population Growth of 80 million a year. Food Commodities, as well as Gold & Silver, will be the most profitable and Wealth Protective places to be in the next few years.

In that connection, we note that despite ongoing Cartel (Note 2) Gold Price Capping Attempts, we now have a confirmed Uptrend for Gold stocks. The Market Vectors Gold Miners Fund (CGDX) recently confirmed its break above its 50 DMA! What a welcome development after over two years of declines.

But short term the picture is still mixed for the Gold Market and thus the Great Launch up may be delayed a bit more, as this JBGJ excerpt below demonstrates.

In other words, The Cartel’s Price Capping Attempts continue with some success. But The Cartel’s desperation is reflected in these attempts. Note the BOLD portion of JBGJ

“Indian ex-duty premiums AM $125.41, PM N/A with world gold at $1,241 and $1,236.85. Not one of the 5 importing cities Reuters monitors altered their prices for the PM reading despite material moves in world gold and the rupee, a situation JBGJ has never seen before. Based on the AM reading local gold was $264.84 or 21.34% above world gold (Wednesday 21.59%). If the published price PM premium were taken seriously Indian gold was 21.87% above world gold. The rupee closed little changed at $1= R61.535 (R61.54) and the stock market slipped 0.11%.

“There is no doubt the legal Indian gold trade is in a surly mood. They are being seriously harassed: see   Government seeks gold purchase information from jewellers as smuggling rises. JBGJ continues to wonder how viable politically this anti-gold campaign is….

“Shanghai gold closed at a premium of $13.35 to world gold of $1,240.25 on volume equivalent to 13,968 NY contracts (Wednesday $13.50/$1,241.64/14,565 NY). “Delivery Volume” fell to a low 5.554 tonnes (Wednesday 8.524 tonnes). JBGJ wonders if the tightness in London delivery bar noted last night is connected….

“MineWeb’s enterprising reporter Shivom Seth who is usually focused on India has published an upbeat China story   Fresh wave of gold buying ahead of Chinese New Year  which consolidates many recent positive anecdotes:…

“Last night contemplating the steady rise in world gold JBGJ remarked that the Bears needed to exert themselves again. In the event Feb gold peaked at $1,244.90 (up $6.60) about 1-10 AM and then was swept down almost $8 by 3-30 on quite heavy selling. Estimated CME web site volume as of 8AM was a considerable 57,000 lots: estimated at 9AM was 73,628 NY.  

“Subsequently gold has recovered on the NY economic data but volume has faded. The Gartman Letter  today takes note of  

“a very real, and apparently very powerful seller of gold”

active at the recent highs but so far the objective seems to be to cap gold rather than depress it – unlike last year.”

Capping Continues, John Brimelow JBGJ, 01/16/2014

Massive Climacterics such as Equities and $US and US T-Bond Tops and Gold and Silver bottoming, are developing. Savvy investors should consider putting on long Gold, Silver and Miners positions such as the ones we have recommended.

Those who recognize and take advantage of these Climacterics are likely to substantially Profit.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
January 17, 2014

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported January 16, 2014
1.5%     /    9.08%

U.S. Unemployment reported January 10, 2014
6.7%     /     23.3%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported December 20, 2013
1.97%        /     -1.70%

U.S. M3 reported January 3, 2014 (Month of December, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     3.32% (est . ) (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.512 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


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