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“Housing numbers were abysmal for January 2014. This is yet another evidence that there is a huge disconnect between Wall Street and Fedspeak, versus the real economy. The truth is, the economy stinks. Big picture stock market patterns are telling us the economy will get much worse, and an economic depression could be coming.”  

Robert McHugh, 02/19/2014

Do you own any Bonds? Does your Retirement Account hold any Bonds? Better check. And in particular check the Yield.

If the Yield is 3% or 4% or even 5%, consider whether the Real Rate of Inflation is actually eroding the Value (Purchasing Power) of that Yield to a Negative Number (i.e., to a Negative Real Interest Rate).

For the U.S. for Example, if one looks beyond the Bogus Official Numbers, one sees that the Real Inflation Rate is 9.17% per Shadowstats.com (Note 1 – Chart).

Does the after-tax yield keep pace with Inflation? Really?

And the same considerations, and questions, should be addressed for Bonds denominated in other currencies, and whether the official Numbers in those Countries are Bogus as well.

And what about Risk to Principal? Return “of” one’s money is ultimately more important than return “on” one’s money – Think Cyprus.

Consider the recent fate of Bonds issued in Argentina or Turkey. And consider what the Real Inflation Rate is in Emerging Market Countries.

The Deception/Delusion (whichever one prefers) is not only about the Real Rate of Inflation. What about “Bail-Ins” and “Super Priority” Rights of Mega-Financial Institutions in the event of another Financial Crisis (see our earlier Articles on these subjects)?

And does the country of issuance have Capital Controls? Is the after-tax Yield really sufficient to compensate for the Real Rate of inflation and Risk to Principal?

If Answers to any of these Questions Disturb you, just realize where a large Part of the Blame lies. The Fed and other Central Bankers have and are devaluing money and interest Rates to the point where Money can be borrowed at very low rates.

This has created Massive Economic, Financial and Asset Distortion – i.e., Bubbles. No wonder Savvy Investor, Carl Icahn, called current Equities levels a “Mirage.” But Bubbles Burst.

But do you want to be caught owning any of that paper?

And do you want to be caught hold any of the paper in light of another Deception/Delusion (Take your pick!) – such as “The Economy is Recovering”? Indeed, Fundamental and Technicals and Interventionals Signal Differently. Indeed, they Signal that “The Big One” is Impending. Consider recent signals via Shadowstats.

Strongest Signal for a Recession Since September 2007

“January Retail Sales Activity Plunged by 0.6% for the Month

January Annual Inflation: 1.6% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)

“Underlying CPI Inflation Picks Up; Economic Activity Is in Decline.    Early   indications abound of a probable downturn in the current quarter (January through March of 2014).  The increasingly likely contraction in headline first-quarter 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) has been signaled by the January 2014 reporting detail on employment ( Commentary No. 598 ), industrial production (Commentary No. 600), housing starts (Commentary No. 601) and retail sales (Commentary No. 599   and today’s Commentary).  A particular issue has arisen with real retail sales, discussed in today’s (February 20th) Commentary, along with the consumer price index (CPI).

“In addition to the various downside revisions to the economy in prior months and the reporting of weak-to-minus monthly activity in January, real retail sales (inflation-adjusted based on the CPI-U) clearly are signaling a recession.  Year-to-year change in the post-World War II series is plotted in the accompanying graph, and generally it has signaled a pending recession whenever growth dropped below 2.0%.  It hit 1.0% in January 2014, the strongest recession signal seen since September 2007.  The formal recession began in December 2007. …”

“Commentary Number 602, January CPI, Real retail Sales and Earnings,” John Williams, Shadowstats.com, 02/20/2014

[Indeed, monitoring the Preliminary Signals that the Big One is impending in recent Months has facilitated our making a series of Profitable Recommendations (Note 2 below). We aim to do the same for the Impending Big One.]

And other Data support the conclusion that it is a very High Probability that The Big One is Impending Soon.

It is important to note that the Dow topped at 16,588 on 12/31/13.

This is close to the 17,000 top which we forecast months ago.

And recently the Equities Market has been Rising on Declining Volume, but Declining on Rising Volume – a very Bearish Signal. Consider one specific example supporting the foregoing Bearish conclusion in addition to the ones we earlier laid out.

On Friday February 14, the Dow was up over 100 points (albeit on Negative Data) on Low Volume – a sign that Big Institutional Investors are Selling.

Nonetheless, short term, it is still somewhat more likely than not that there will be, one more brief Rally to a somewhat higher tops (e.g. closer to our Dow 17,000 Target). However, the Equities Market could nonetheless launch into The Great Crash at any time. Stay tuned for our forecasts.

BUT Regardless of whether The Crash starts now or in a few weeks, Equities Markets are putting in a Multi-year top .

Key Fundamentals, Technicals and Interventional confirm this.

In sum, given the Negative Fundamentals and Technicals, e.g., the Equities rising Bearish wedge and the Negative Divergence between the NYSE A/D line and stock prices, a Major Move Down of The Great Crash could begin at any time.

And here we issue one more Warning! There are many reasons to believe that The Coming Crash will be deeper and longer-lasting than the 2008-2009 Crash.

And it is important to Dispel One Other Deception/Delusion – that the Prospects for the Gold Price are Bearish. In fact, consider that ongoing Cartel (Note 3) Price Suppression attempts are being overwhelmed by Physical Demand.

Indeed, the Shortage of Physical Gold is intensifying. Asian and especially Chinese Buying and taking Delivery of Physical is at Record levels.

Couple that with China’s record January, 2014 lending y/o/y (also a 4 year high) and Fed Chair Yellen’s promise to Open the Monetary Spigots in the event of a slowdown, and one can see why Gold and Silver are rising. Inflation is on the Horizon.

Thus, our view is that a Great Launch Up is impending.

Also supporting this forecast is the fact that Gold recently closed above its 200 DMA.

Indeed, the Chinese think The Great Launch UP is coming soon and the following Credible Report so indicates:

“…how come there is such a big difference between Chinese demand reported by the WGC, 1066 tons, and wholesale demand, 2197 tons? Why is the WGC missing 1132 tons? One reason is because the Chinese are hiding it. Since 2008 the Chinese have great interest to hoard in the dark in order to diversify their US dollar reserves, strengthen their economy and protect it from external shocks. The China Gold Association (CGA) changed the way they measure demand and all other Chinese gold institutions ceased publishing reports on demand since 2011…

“Why consumer demand as presented to the world has been understated since 2008 is because the China Gold Association is manipulating the demand category net investment to suppress other categories like jewelry and bar.”

“The World Gold Council Clueless on Chinese Gold Demand?” In Gold We Trust

And lest one think that there is safety in “Cash” (i.e., in some Fiat Currency), consider Alasdair Macloed

“When US money supply measured by M2 stood at $11 trillion in December 2013, I calculate that total broad money of the next largest 50 countries ranked by GDP amounted to the equivalent of a further US$67 trillion at current exchange rates. And that's only on-balance sheet: we must add in global shadow banking, estimated by the Financial Stability Board to have been an extra $67 trillion in 2011, probably about $75 trillion today, given its recent rapid growth in China. So when we look at US broad money supply, we should be aware there is a further mountain of money thirteen times as big ultimately based on the dollar.

“As long as bank lending, industrial investment and consumption are all expanding, the sun smiles. It's when it stops that problems arise, and why markets reacted badly to the idea of tapering and are increasingly nervous about China's credit bubble and attempts to rein it in.

“More specifically the danger arises from a slow-down and possible reversal of cross-border investment, particularly with emerging economies. …

“So whatever analysis of individual countries might tell us, it has been easy to miss the threat of a deepening global recession, a risk increased by diminishing cross-border flows. What a time for the Fed and the Peoples Bank of China to decide to reduce the rate of monetary expansion for the two largest economies! These actions are too late to achieve the hoped-for orderly exit from excessive monetary expansion.

“If cross-border investment flows reverse, as they are now threatening to do, banks and multinational businesses will run for cover and the carry-trade will rapidly unwind. And when fear of losses finally triumphs over greed for profits the weaker currencies are usually the first to suffer.

“The relationship between these currencies and the dollar is now being tested in the markets. Eventually, of course, the Fed will have to resume unlimited monetary expansion to buy off a global economic and financial crisis. …

“The last crisis was just the banks. This time we are looking at a potential popping of a full-blown global currency bubble, which was generated as the solution to the last crisis. And this new bubble is all supported on an inflated US monetary base of $3.8 trillion. That's bubbly gearing of nearly 40 times, or 163 times the monetary base on the eve of the Lehman crisis.”

“All currencies are an inverse pyramid based on the dollar,” Alasdair Macloed, Goldmoney.com, 02/21/2014

Yes, indeed, The Fed will have to “resume unlimited monetary Expansion.” Consequence: The Purchasing Power of the $US will be destroyed and Gold and Silver Backed currencies (e.g., the Chinese Yuan), will Rule.

Do not allow Deceptions and Delusions to Impede your Preparation for Profit and Protection for what is Coming.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
February 21, 2014

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported February 20, 2014
1.5 8 %     /    9.17%

U.S. Unemployment reported February 7, 2014
6.6%     /     23.2%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported January 30, 2013
2.74%        /     -1.40%

U.S. M3 reported February 16 , 2014 (Month of January, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     3.0 7 % (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.54 4 Trillion!)

Note 2: Our attention to Key Timing Signals has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our six most recent:

100% Profit on Crude Oil Call on February 10, 2014 after 27 days (i.e., about 1400% Annualized)

30% Profit on Equity Index Puts on February 5, 2014 after 8 days (i.e., about 1440% Annualized)

55% Profit on Water Management Company on January 15, 2014 after 406 days (i.e., about 50% Annualized)

140% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 27, 2013 after just 10 days (i.e., about 5200% Annualized)

40% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 19, 2013 after just 2 days (i.e., about 7500% Annualized)

135% Profit on Equity Index Call on October 28, 2013 after just 13 days (i.e., about 3800% Annualized)

Note 3: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

 


Dangerous New World for Old Strategies

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“It isn’t what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.”

Will Rogers

Knowing what “ain’t so” is increasingly important for Investors and Traders Going Forward.

Indeed, going into 2014 perhaps the most important Realization to be made is that certain Grand Investment & Trading Strategies and Assumptions which were profitable in the past (e.g., in 2013) may well not be profitable in 2014 and beyond.

“People are right to fear Paper Money.”

Warren Buffet

For one, the ongoing Currency Wars – the Competitive Devaluation (i.e., loss of purchasing power) of Fiat Currencies by Central Banks – will be an increasingly important factor, as Warren Buffet tacitly acknowledges. The Assumption that Fiat Currencies are a Reliable “Store” of wealth will be increasingly questionable.

From a broader perspective than just currencies, consider that developing and intensifying Forces recently reflected in the Economy, Markets, and Interventions make it strongly advisable that Investors and Traders consider shifting their Investing/Trading Strategies, and especially so if their portfolios were profitable in 2013.

Since the Post-Crash (Beta) Rally began in March, 2009, stocks which were excellent Bargain Values by important (Alpha) Metrics (e.g. Price-Earnings, Price-to-Book, & Price to-Cash Flow Ratios) have soared. In other words, with Beta Trends supporting top Alpha Picks, the Alpha Picks have done very well. And Equities indices are still near record Highs.

But Markets are cyclical (in other words, Beta or Primary Trends change). And Major Primary Trend Changes in Key Sectors are Impending.

Indeed, even the best Alpha Picks do not necessarily perform well, and often perform poorly when Beta Turns Against them.

In other words, when Beta does not support Alpha, Beta usually Trumps Alpha.

Moreover, (and this Critical point is often missed) Dominant Beta Trends can be Bullish in some Sectors and Bearish in others. Thus Deepcaster always aims to identify which is Dominant in each Sector.

For example, important Metrics like Inflation must be measured on a Sector by Sector Basis. Financial Assets and Energy Costs have been Inflating since the 2008-2009 Crash. Not so in other Sectors.

Moreover, but when one considers the Overall Rate of inflation, one should use the Real Numbers (cf. Shadowstats.com – Note 2) and not Bogus Official Statistics.

Considering a related example, since March, 2009, Financial Assets (e.g. Stocks) have inflated so much due to Fed Stimulus (QE) that their Values are what Carl Icahn correctly calls a “Mirage”. Too True. And Fed QE has caused considerable Price Inflation which is not reflected in the Bogus Official Numbers. Real U.S. Price Inflation is 9.08% per Shadowstats.com.

The Fed QE created Beta Trend (Inflated Assets Values) not only lifts Great Alpha Picks to New Highs but mediocre ones as well. Un fortunately, it is not sustainable, and has created a Financial Assets Bubble.

A Rising Tide lifts all Boats. But when it ebbs…

As we forecast in 2013, Beta Trends are likely to Massively Change in 2014 in Several Key Sectors. And one Major Trend change reflects the fact that a Major Market Crash in Key Sectors is likely.

Moreover, moving into 2014, we expect such Apparent Trend changes to come more often and with more Volatility. This will necessitate a Change in Strategy for many. For one thing, profits not taken quickly are often profits lost.

For example, on December 31, 2013 the Primary Trend of most Equity Sectors was very Bullish.

But as of the end of January 2014, Many Sectors had turned Bearish.

And February 2014 has thus far brought another Bullish Pulse, and increasing Volatility.

In sum, 2014 and 2015 are likely to dramatically demonstrate once again the Truth of the Adage “Buy and Hold rarely Works Anymore.” Conversely Position Trading in and out with a Multi-week rather than Multi-year Horizon does work, at least for those who wish to make and take profits, before they disappear. See our Recent Profits Taken record below to demonstrate this. (Note 1)

Now Consider certain other Key Mega-Strategy Shift Recommendations.

The U.S., Chinese, and to a somewhat lesser extent, the Eurozone economies are presently (perceived to be) the world’s strongest. But, this apparent strength is “what we know that ain’t so.”

But with nearly $3 Trillion in Vulnerable Shadow Bank Debt and a Commitment to slowing “Bridges to Nowhere” Infrastructure Spending and to increase Domestic Consumption, China is already, and promises to continue to be somewhat less of a Stimulus to Global Economic Growth than it has been.

Couple the foregoing with The Fed’s fulfilling its commitment temporarily (we seriously doubt it will last) to Tapering i.e., less Stimulus, and it is no surprise that Commodity Currency (i.e., Emerging Market) Countries (most of which supply China) and especially the Weakest Peripheral Countries’ Currencies have Crashed lately – cf. Argentina, Turkey and South Africa. But the Key Point is that the Currency Risk is not limited to Emerging Markets but ultimately extends to the Over-indebted USA and Eurozone Currencies too, because, to a degree, the USA’s and Eurozone’s Economies are tied to China’s too.

This is consistent with our forecasts for the $US and Euro, and Major Economies in General.

Considering Equities, after a down January 2014, the Dow and Transports show momentum shifting to the upside thus far in February. Indeed, we have recently forecast the Targets and Duration for this “February Rally.”

But Longer term, This January ’s Markets swoon is a harbinger of what is coming. The Underlying Economic/Structural Weakness of the U.S. and Eurozone Economies has begun to rear its Ugly Head. Coupled with a Realization of the Interlinked Nature of virtually all Major Economies (e.g. China’s slowdown effect on the USA and Eurozone), with consequent increased Recent Volatility , Major Trend changes to come in Key Sectors are predictable.

In the process of reconsidering “Old” Strategies, those who have not/do not see Gold as Safe Haven and Profit Opportunity ought to take a second look. Regarding Gold, Gold consumption in China topped 1,000 tonnes last year – growing to 1,176.4 tones with bullion demand soaring 57% – all records.

No surprise then that Gold recently broke through Major Resistance at $1275 and $1300 per ounce– The Chinese and Indians are intensifying buying and taking possession of physical, and that is driving up the price despite ongoing Cartel (Note 3) Price Suppression attempts.

In light of the following Notes from JBGJ, is it true what some claim that Gold would have to clear at least $1350 per ounce to conclusively establish an uptrend? In that connection, it is our view that there are two recent developments which make a continued Launch Up likely sooner than claimed.

We quote JBGJ:

“India’s trade deficit narrows to $9.92 bn on 77% drop in gold imports   reports  

“‘The trade ministry said it had recommended easing curbs on gold imports, prompted by the brighter trade picture.’

“JBGJ continues to think that the end of India’s gold interdiction will be the big surprise of 2014.”

“China Surprises the Bears. Next, India?” John Brimelow, Early GJ 02/10/2014

“‘Appetite from China has so far surprised on the upside. While historical seasonal patterns imply a slowdown post the Chinese New Year, interest this week seems to suggest otherwise. Volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange were very strong yesterday at 31 tonnes and this was corroborated by the demand we saw based on our own flows…

“‘This positive surprise from gold’s largest physical market certainly helps and is particularly encouraging considering these higher price levels.’

“It is worth remembering that Chinese demand in this order of magnitude is a new event the global gold market.”

Ibid.

Will we Precious Metal Partisans have to suffer one more Multi-Week Cartel Engineered Takedown, in light of the fact that Gold and Silver Paper Prices are increasingly resistant to ongoing Cartel Takedown Attempts? It is still entirely possible, but increasingly less likely as the days pass.

In our view, the early 2014 Gold Rise is The Harbinger of the Price Explosion to come soon. And since The Big Launch appears to be near, NOW is an excellent buying Opportunity.

The Physical Shortage is just too Critical. And Sonia Ghandi, head of India’s (the World’s 2 nd largest Importer) Congress party recently criticized the Indian Governments Persecution of Gold Merchants via Tariffs.

Moreover, Billionaire Eric Sprott recently demonstrated the Central Banks can not successfully continue their Gold Price Suppression Throughout 2014, because they are running out of Sufficient Physical Supplies to meet demand.

The Foregoing are all Key Harbingers of the Gold and Silver Price Explosion to Come soon.

Ultimately, we agree with the Strategy reflected in Neil Collins’s Financial Times Article (01/24/14) “Demand Physical Gold” because one Day Paper Price Manipulation will end “catastrophically.”

Finally, regarding that Most Honest Indicator (and one which should be central to strategic planning going forward), the Crude Oil price, we recently correctly forecast Crude’s Rally back up to $100/bbl.

Strategically speaking, if the February Equities Rally continues in the next very few weeks, we expect Crude to Rally on up beyond $100 perhaps even to $110ish. World Demand is still increasing, and above-ground supplies are tight, and the US has an increasing above-ground Crude and Distillate shortage.

Indeed, unsurprisingly to us, OPEC estimated that World Demand has now risen to 90 Million/bbl/day – a record.

Emblematic of many Trend Changes which we forecast, only the next Episode of The Great Equities Crash will likely serve to deflate Crude Demand, and thus Prices, significantly once again, but only for a while.

To Profit and protect, “Old” Strategies and Assumptions, must at the very least be reconsidered.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
February 14, 2014

Note 1: Finally! The Great Launch in a Key Sector is likely finally about to begin!

And this Rocket Launch should provide Mammoth Profits to those who jump on the Rocket soon.

Therefore, we made a Buy Recommendation for stock in a company with at least 300% Profit Potential selling for only a little over $1 per share.

To see why we think the Launch Rocket is igniting and our Buy Recommendation, read Deepcaster’s recent Alert, “Great Opportunity Launch! Buy Reco! Forecasts: Gold & Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates,” posted in ‘Alerts Cache’ at Deepcaster.com.

Btw, our attention to Key Timing Signals has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our six most recent:

100% Profit on Crude Oil Call on February 10, 2014 after 27 days (i.e., about 1400% Annualized)

30% Profit on Equity Index Puts on February 5, 2014 after 8 days (i.e., about 1440% Annualized)

55% Profit on Water Management Company on January 15, 2014 after 406 days (i.e., about 50% Annualized)

140% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 27, 2013 after just 10 days (i.e., about 5200% Annualized)

40% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 19, 2013 after just 2 days (i.e., about 7500% Annualized)

 

135% Profit on Equity Index Call on October 28, 2013 after just 13 days (i.e., about 3800% Annualized)

 

Note 2: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported January 16, 2014
1.5%     /    9.08%

U.S. Unemployment reported February 7, 2014
6.6%     /     23.2%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported January 30, 2013
2.74%        /     -1.40%

U.S. M3 reported February 7, 2014 (Month of January, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     3.04% (est) (i.e . , total M3 Now at $15.54 Trillion!)

Note 3: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

 


Surmounting Hostile Incoming

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: Untagged 

Deepcaster

 

“…If you view the progressive financial breakdown in America as some kind of ‘comedy of errors’ or a trial of unlucky coincidences, then there is not much I can do to educate you on the reasons behind the carnage. If, however, you understand that there is a deliberate motivation behind American collapse, then what I have to say here will not fall on biased ears.

“The financial crash of 2008, the same crash which has been ongoing for years, is NOT an accident. It is a concerted and engineered crisis meant to position the U.S. for currency disintegration and the institution of a global basket currency controlled by an unaccountable supranational governing body like the International Monetary Fund (IMF. The American populace is being conditioned through economic fear to accept the institutionalization of global financial control and the loss of sovereignty….

“The Final Swindle of Private American Wealth Has Begun,” lemetropolecafe.com, Brandon Smith, 02/04/2014

Though we do not know for sure whether the ongoing Crisis is “concerted & engineered”, that is certainly one reasonable interpretation.

We do know that there is precedent for Mega-Bank “Bail-ins” (i.e. confiscation) of Depository Accounts (cf. Cyprus and Poland) and Super-priority payments to Mega-Banks, (cf. MFGlobal) in the event of another Financial Crisis, as we and others, especially the Redoubtable Attorney and Analyst Ellen Brown, have noted.

And now we hear, in the SOTU no less, that Americans are invited to stash their wealth (such as they have left) in MYRAs, which presumably will hold Treasury Securities.

- Securities which depreciate as inflation increases.

And Investors have to cope with other “incoming” as well including Real Inflation of about 9%, Real Unemployment of 23% per ShadowStats.com.

And also we have suppression of P.M. prices. But there is a strategy for Surmounting all this Incoming and Profiting. At best American Holders of MYRA are likely to Suffer loss from inflation, and at worse loss of principal.

But arguably the more serious Incoming Threat is the Ongoing Destruction of the Purchasing Power of the $US by the private for-profit US Fed’s policies.

Consider further, Brandon Smith’s view.

If you understand that the goal of the Fed and the globalists is to dismantle the dollar and the U.S. economic system to make way for something ‘new,’ then certain recent events and policy initiatives do start to make sense….

“I stand more on the position that the Fed taper was begun in preparation for a slowdown in global markets. In fact, I believe central bankers have been well aware that a decline in every sector was coming, and are moving to insulate themselves.

“Look at it this way: The taper program distances the bankers from responsibility for any dramatic changes in our financial framework, at least in the eyes of the general public…. The Fed is creating space between itself and the economy because they know that a trigger event is coming. They want to ensure that they are not blamed and that stimulus itself is not seen as ineffective.

“We all know that the claims of recovery are utter nonsense….

“The MyRa program turns the general American public into a new cash stream, but there’s more going on here than meets the eye…

“And, are they offering the MyRA program as an easy outlet (or trap) for people to pour in what little savings they have as panic over declining equities accelerates?

“Second, the program is currently voluntary, but what if the plan is to make it mandatory? Obama has already signed mandatory health insurance ‘taxation’ into law, which is meant to steal a portion of every paycheck….

“…is this a deliberate strategy to corral the last vestiges of private American wealth into the corner of U.S. bonds, so that this wealth can be confiscated or annihilated?...

“The goal of globalists is to engineer desperation. To create a catastrophe and then force the masses to beg for help….”

Ibid.

We should emphasize that a form of Confiscation is already ongoing in the form of devaluation of the $US as revealed in the Real (as opposed to the Bogus Official Numbers) Inflation Numbers provided by Shadowstats.com. (See Note 1)

Another “Hostile Incoming” Threat is noted in Tyler Durden’s Analysis of the MYRA program — Increasing State Control of Wealth, Via (in the Case of MYRA) Nationalization of Retirement Savings, a Threat which we have earlier noted as well.

“ Simply put, the new myRA program put forward by Obama is at best a sucker's deal… or worse, it's a first step toward the nationalization of private retirement savings… .

“ Even before the new myRA program was announced, there had been whispers about the need for the US government to assume some risk for US retirement accounts. That's code for forced conversion of private retirement assets into government bonds… .

“ Of course, you can only invest in government-approved investments—like Treasuries—which probably won't even come close to keeping up with the real rate of inflation. It's like Jim Grant says: ‘ return-free risk. ’

“ In reality, a myRA doesn't really provide any significant new benefits over existing options… .

“ The net effect is the funneling of more capital to Treasury securities and thus helping the US government finance itself… .”

“The Countdown to the Nationalization of Retirement Savings Has Begun,” zerohedge.com, Tyler Durden, 02/05/2014

Yet another Hostile Incoming is a product of the Ongoing Currency Wars whereby Central Banks try to outdo each other in devaluing their Currencies. This provides temporary help to Exporters and over indebted governments but ultimately will (and in many cases has already) generated inflation.

Couple Currency Devaluation with the excesses created by the artificially low interest rates created by The Fed, QE, and one has a recipe for trouble as the Fed has begun to Taper down Stimuli. The trouble has first been obvious in Emerging Markets and has already resulted in Sudden weakness in Argentina, South African, and Turkish Currencies.

“ This Turkish cautionary tale should warn investors that the emerging-market crisis is not over. And no market -- not even the U.S.’ -- is quarantined from the damage… “ Many U.S. companies sell into emerging markets. After currency crashes, imports become unaffordable. Economies downsize and de-globalize. “ Such are the consequences of credit bubbles. Credit bubbles cannot inflate to economy-wrecking scales if they weren’t built on a foundation set by central banks. “ Here’s the sequence of events:

  • Central banks manipulate interest rates below where they would have been established in a free market
  • Bankers and borrowers go wild
  • Near the peak of the bubble, central banks tighten mildly
  • Awareness spreads that central banks -- not genuine savings -- funded the credit bubble
  • Investors sell and/or repatriate their assets
  • Calls for renewed central bank easing grow louder and louder.

“ Right now, we are somewhere between steps three and four in the above sequence. This week’s additional QE taper of $10 billion per month will prompt more investors to look for the exits. Stay defensive… ”

Strategic Short Report, 01/31/2014

So how does one surmount all the foregoing Hostile incoming.

We have long and repeatedly advocated buying Inflation–resistant Assets such as a Interests in Productive Farmland, and Water Supply/Management Resources.

And we have long advocated being buyers of Gold & Silver, with much of it held in Physical Form (e.g. Coins, bars) in one’s personal possession (i.e. Outside of the Banking System.), with some Interests in Quality Miners as well.

But it is becoming increasingly widely known that a Fed-led Banking Cartel has for years and is engaged in the Suppression if the Price of Gold & Silver. (See Note 2)

Nonetheless, the Cartel’s Price Suppression Efforts plus increasing demands from China & India have resulted in a great and increasing shortage of Physical Metal with which to make Delivery of Actual Physical.

As Brien Lundin points out.

“COMEX gold warehouse stocks have been falling dramatically, apparently in response to the massive increase in Asian gold demand (which was itself sparked by the price-takedown fostered on the COMEX exchange.)

“When you consider this along with the fact that the “gold cover” (the number of putative owners for each ounce of physical Registered gold on hand at the COMEX) has soared to an incredible 110 “owners per ounce,” then you see that the U.S. paper gold market is dancing along the precipice of potential default.

And someone may be trying to push it over the edge.”

Think of it! 110 “Owners” of each Ounce of Physical Gold in the COMEX! Suppose only a few more of them decide to demand Delivery. It is only a matter of time before the COMEX fails to make Delivery.

The COMEX will have to Default & the price of Gold will skyrocket. The market is approaching the point of No return. This is why Deepcaster provides Forecast for the timing of these Events & the prospective Equities Crash in our letters and Alerts.

Even MSM has begun to Report on the Suppression of the Gold prices. Note the following from the August Financial Times.

“From the FT’s Neil Collins: ‘Learn from Buba and demand delivery for true price of gold: One day the ties that bind the actual and the traded commodity will snap’.”

“The FT Goes There: ‘Demand Physical Gold’ As One Day Paper Price Manipulation Will End ‘Catastrophically’,” zerohedge.com, Tyler Durden, 01/25/2014

In sum to surmount Hostile Incoming acquire interests in Inflation-Resistant Assets, such as Food, Water & Gold.

Best regards,

Deepcaster

February 7, 2014

 

Note 1:

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported January 16, 2014
1.5% / 9.08%

U.S. Unemployment reported January 10, 2014
6.7% / 23.3%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported December 20, 2013
1.97% / -1.70%

U.S. M3 reported January 3, 2014 (Month of December, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 3.32% (est . ) (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.512 Trillion!)

From Shadowstats.com

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


The Truth Is – I Just Don’t Know

Posted by: FusionEnterprise

Tagged in: Untagged 

FusionEnterprise

I tend to read people with whom I agree.  I confess.  This flies directly in the face of my posting about Critical Thinking.  But that is not to say that I am oblivious to the main stream media and their message about recovery, and the falling unemployment rate and their take on the relevancy of the price of gold.  I take note of the views on printing money out of thin air – oops, I’m sorry – Quantitative Easing and how it doesn’t really spell doom for the dollar.  I listen to commentators applaud Bernanke for saving our hide by coming up with innovative ways to prop up the dollar and the banking system.

I also can read a graph, and when I look at graphs published by the Fed itself, I can only come to one conclusion.  This cannot end well.  Now in the universe of people that I agree with on this point, there is a lot of chatter about how that end will play out.  Some call it a great Reset where the value of the dollar will plummet and it will either be replaced by a new face, or it will be devalued significantly to allow for the $17 Trillion debt to be serviced.  Some refer to a Great Unwinding, where $200 Trillion dollars worth of obligations unravel into a pile of paper with no intrinsic value.  Some see us Falling Off a Cliff and collapsing into chaos, martial law, toilet paper shortages, travel restrictions and a repudiation of retirement fund obligations.

And then there are those who can also read a graph but maintain that we are not in a 100 year long Ponzi  Scheme and that things will get worse, but we will not Reset or Unwind or Fall off a Cliff.  The dollar will lose its Reserve Currency status and this will affect our standard of living, but the dollar will still be a dollar and it will survive as our sovereign currency.  I call this the “muddle our way through” view and it assumes that no one will question 400 to 1 pay ratios that used to be 10 to 1, that the falling middle class will keep clawing and defending our democratic form of government and a capitalist system that rewards those who make us more productive.

This is where it is prudent to step back and take a longer view.  How does a fiat paper system fare when a government resorts to unbridled printing of new money?  How is it possible to dump thousands of tons of gold into the market in order to artificially keep the price down for fifty years, and then persuade people to believe that gold is not money?  That the citizens of India and China are deluded and they will see their gold and silver wealth crushed by a piece of paper with the face of a dead President on it?  That Fort Knox being empty is of no consequence?  That the paper profits making many bankers and financial traders billionaires were justified because they helped fuel our prosperity for 50 years?

The long historical view says to me, that this will not end well.  The dollar will lose its Reserve Status.  There will be a Bretton Woods like conference, and those with the gold will sit at the head of the table and those with empty vaults and piles of derivatives and notes and credit default swaps will sit at the foot of the table.  Bretton Woods is 70 years old this year.  Look it up and study why the dollar was given Reserve Currency status.  And while you’re at it, look up Petro-dollars and the WTO and the suppression of gold prices and how insurance is used to hedge gambling by banks. 

Yes, Critical Thinkers study history.  And the main stream media is selling us short and feeding us the company line.  The people charged with regulating our markets are turning a blind eye to overt manipulation that a fifth grader could recognize if shown 365 daily graphs.  Unemployment figures are presented with a straight face, with no attention being given to the falling levels of total employment and the falling income levels.  Inflation numbers are fudged and then fudged some more.  Yes, I conclude that it will not end well.

But I don’t pretend to know what that means and anyone who says they do is just guessing.  I don’t know if there will be a cliff or just a steady march to the bottom.  I don’t know if people will rise to the occasion and start a million local businesses that restore our productivity or if instead we are locked down by martial law to keep starving people from roaming the countryside.  I don’t know if banks will be propped up indefinitely or whether they will at last be allowed to fall into ruin.

What I do know is this.  There are things we can do that are prudent under any scenario.  Get out of debt, grow food, look for ways to be productive and form communities.  I will close with a paragraph from my very first blog entry in February 2012:

“My conclusion is that by Visualizing Intrinsic Value Alignment (VIVA) we can embark upon a journey that is appropriate for all prophetic outcomes.  For me this means I want to grow more of my own food.  Will that serve me and my family if the world economy falls apart?  Yes.  Will it still serve me if we muddle on much like we have for the last five years? Yes.  Will it serve if energy becomes scarce?  Yes.  I cannot imagine many scenarios where growing more of my own food will not be of great benefit to my well being.  I can then cast aside Future Fear and live according to my intrinsic values which assumes of course my values align with a system of productivity in community and not with derivatives and fiat currency.”

http://visualizingintrinsicvaluealignment.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-truth-is-i-just-dont-know.html

 

 

 


Critical Forecast Signals

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“U.S. Major markets will Implode, if Emerging Markets Implode.”

Jim Sinclair

Sinclair’s claim is correct, but the Markets’ recent Negative Reaction to Argentina’s Devaluation and Turkey’s Massive Rate Increase provides us one Superb Forecasting Signal.

Indeed, so far in 2014 the Markets have provided us with several Superb Forecast Signals in Key Sectors.

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”

John Templeton

John Templeton’s wise observation is Relevant given the Markets’ Euphoria on January 30, and that Euphoria provide yet another “Signal”.

But the Euphoria and the Risks and The Key Signals they provide Increase almost Daily. Indeed, (as if “Bail in” Threats to retirement and other accounts were not real enough already) we have earlier warned about the U.S. Government encouraging/forcing Citizen to “Invest” in depreciating U.S. Treasuries whose yield is well below the Real Inflation Rate.. Well, Consider President Obama’s State of the Union

“…the offer that the President of the United States floated last night…

“…his new “MyRA” program. And the aim is simple – dupe unwitting Americans to plow their retirement savings into the US government’s shrinking coffers.”

“IRA Confiscation: it’s happening” Simon Black, Sovereign Man, 1/29/14

This and other Signals provide us a Road Map for highly likely future performance for certain Key Sectors. Indeed, one Sector is Signaling it is ready to Reverse VERY SOON and make a very Major Move. Consider what the Signals tell us about the Sectors we cover.

We have a Buy Reco. aimed at Profiting from it posted on our website.

Every Investment or Trading Decision necessarily implies that two prior forecasts have been made: 1.) that the future economic and financial environment will be conducive to success and 2.) that the particular Investment or Trade is likely to be profitable in that environment.

Thus Quality Forecasting is essential to Investment and Trading Success.

We should be grateful.

The Friday, Janaury 24, 2014 Equities sell-off was not so much about China’s weak Manufacturing survey, or the ongoing mixed earnings season, or the prospect of continued tapering (though those were factors).

Rather it had more to do with concern over how much Stress China would allow in its Shadow Banking System. China Credit Trust warned Investors that a 3 Billion Renminbi Trust Product might not be repaid when it matures January 31. China Credit is a Shadow Bank, a lender outside the Official Banking Sector. And many other Chinese Shadow Banks have looming Default Risk.

Loans by China’s Shadow Banks are estimated to total some $3 Trillion – fully one third of the Credit outstanding in China. And Defaults in That System could ripple throughout China and the World.

And since China, along with the USA, is widely regarded as an Engine of Future Growth, if it sneezes the whole world get an Economic Cold. This is probably why a Mysterious Entity (read Bank of China) just stepped in to guarantee much but not all of China’s Credit Trust’s Debt.

As the World’s second largest Economy and Massive Resource Consumer, a Sputtering China would have Ramifications throughout virtually every sector. Therefore note well that China’s manufacturing showed its first contraction in six months – yet another Critical Forecast Signal.

Jim Sinclair’s is thus correct to claim that “U.S. Major markets will Implode, if Emerging Markets Implode.”

Indeed , our Mid and Long Term Forecasts for a Major Market Crash in 2014 have been thus Far spot-on Correct.

Last week’s 600 Point drop in the Dow is the First Major Harbinger of The Great Crash we have been forecasting for Months. We are just seeing The Beginning of The Beginning.

Of course, Crashes very rarely occur all at once, which is one of several reasons we expect a short-lived Rally to begin in the next few days. In Bear Markets one must get in and out quickly to accommodate the Multiple Sharp Reversals.

In sum, regarding Equities in general, the maxim: “Buy and Hold rarely works anymore” will be proven true in 2014 once again.

Thus we reiterate:

Given the Negative Fundamentals and Technicals, e.g. the Equities rising Bearish wedge and the Negative Divergence between the NYSE A/D line and stock prices, a Major Move Down of The Great Crash could begin at any time. Indeed we recently recommended buying puts in one subsector because we expect it to Crash before the others, and very soon.

Regarding Gold as Safe Haven with Great Profit Potential during a Crash, consider that one Necessary Condition we earlier indicated for Gold’s Rallying is one or more Exogenous Events which emphasize its Importance as The Safe Haven Currency.

Last week we got several -- China’s Shadow Banks, heightened Risks reflected in the Equities market Mini-Crash, and Emerging Markets Currency Weakness including a Collapse of Argentina’s Peso.

So, mid and long-term Gold is headed for $3000 and eventually much higher, as we forecast, and Notwithstanding ongoing Cartel (Note 1) Attempts at Price Suppression. Very short term the Precious Metals Markets will continue to be Tricky.

The Physical Shortage is just too Critical. And Sonia Ghandi, head of India’s (the World’s 2nd largest Importer) Congress party recently criticized the Indian Governments Persecution of Gold Merchants via Multiple Tariffs. Moreover, Billionaire Eric Sprott recently demonstrated the Central Banks can not successfully continue their Gold Price Suppression Throughout 2014, because they are running out of Sufficient Physical Supplies.

Consider Jim Brown’s perceptive comments at Option Investor

“Don’t look now but the physical gold shortage is growing. Everyone knows that JP Morgan is one of the biggest gold holders on the planet. They store gold for themselves and others. On Thursday JPM reported the single largest withdrawal in history at -321,500 ounces. Actually that was a tie with December 13 th, 2012 when exactly 321,500 ounces were also withdrawn. Registered god in JPM vaults has fallen to the lowest level in history at 87,000 ounces. Registered gold at all Comex warehouses has hit a new low at 400,000 ounces. Comex claims there is a huge 92 owners per registered ounce today. Registered ounces are available for delivery to settle futures contracts. In other words the registered ounces are all this is backing up the existing futures contracts. Since the majority of futures contracts are never held until the delivery date there are tens of thousands more contracts than actual gold. If everyone suddenly began delivery of the gold referenced by the futures contracts we would be in serious trouble.  

“On January 17 th there were roughly 500,000 registered ounces. At that time there were 111.6 owners per ounce. There are currently 41.309 million ounces being traced through futures contracts. This is ‘paper gold’ not real gold. Where else but America could we be trading 41 million ounces of futures against 500,000 registered ounces? Obviously if only a fraction of the holders of those futures contracts began demanding delivery the price of gold would be much higher.

“We are currently seeing all-time lows in registered gold and all-time highs in claims against that gold. What is wrong with this picture?”

Option Investor

And China’s Imports are Massively Increasing.

“China's 2013 gold imports from Hong Kong more than doubled from the previous year to reach a record of more than 1,000 tonnes as a sharp fall in prices led to unprecedented demand.

“China imported about 1,158.162 tonnes from Hong Kong, compared with 557.478 tonnes in 2012, overtaking India to become the world's biggest gold buyer.”

“China imports record gold volume from Hong Kong in 2013” Reuters, 1/27/14

The Foregoing are Harbingers of Key Sectors’ impending major moves as well as the Gold Price Explosion to Come.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
January 30, 2014

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


Are MiLords Stupid?

Posted by: FusionEnterprise

Tagged in: Untagged 

FusionEnterprise

Yes it is true.  Greed by the 1% has gone over the top and the Ponzi scheme known as fiat currency in a debt based fractional reserve asset chain is about to fall.  Not content with 10 to 1 income disparities prevalent in the 1960’s, the 1% have used the unlimited power of the printing press to create layers upon layers of rehypothecation, derivatives and credit default swaps to effect 400 to 1 ratios, thereby dooming the economy.  I suspect that MiLords, the .1%, (see blog entry MiLords Are Not United for a fuller definition) are not happy that the game is ending prematurely due to unbridled greed by the foot soldiers of the Oligarchy, the merely rich 1%.  But does that mean that MiLords are stupid?  Have they lost control of their own game?  Is the Oligarchy about to fall along with the dollar?

At first glance it would appear that a strategy that sacrifices a currency that has reigned supreme as the world Reserve Currency since 1944 is not very smart.  That shipping all the gold in Fort Knox to China is not very good preparation for the reset defined by the next financial conference that will supplant Bretton Woods.  That killing the golden goose by allowing the manufacturing base to deteriorate and be replaced by The Great Wall-Mart of China, is short sighted.  This is a strategy that bespeaks of goals for a single lifetime, not the visionary foresight of an Oligarchy entrenched for centuries.

 

So are the MiLords who control such things really being that stupid?  Are they being replaced by a patient China forging a dynasty that will last a century?  Will the next Bretton Woods be held in Hong Kong with a gold backed Yuan emerging as the new standard?  Are we on the brink of the creation of a new world order?  Or are MiLords way ahead of us all, dumbing us down with bad diets and trinkets from Wal-Mart?  Do they have a plan that relegates China to the status of the merely rich? 

I don’t know the answer.  I don’t even know if I am asking the right question.  I do not begin to know how to factor in the nuclear chess game, or the impact of China’s own banking problems or the effects of tribalism when the pillars of the world come down.  I also wonder if Rothschild would have been able to control the markets if the Battle of Waterloo could have been reported on the internet.  All of this is above my pay grade. 

So I would like to shift the question away from the IQ of MiLords and take a serious look at us.  Are we the 5% (that is all that it would take I think) smart?  Are we awake?  Are we diligent enough to uncover the game?  MiLords are wearing no clothes.  Can we strip away their cloak of invisibility?   Do we care enough about shaping the coming new world order to arise out of our stupor and engage the enemy of ignorance?  Are we too lazy, too apathetic, too blind to challenge what is? 

Maybe the task is not to name MiLords.  Maybe the task is to name the 5%.  Not to form a movement that is subject to the “Iron Law of Oligarchy,” but to create a consciousness that permeates the air.  Oxygenated air that is rich in knowledge that burns with Critical Thinking. Do we need a symbol that we can draw with our toe in the dust to self identify?

 

China has a plan.  MiLords may have a plan.  But it may not matter if there is a great awakening.  I repeat the tag line for this blog:

“The Opportunity to shape the artifacts of our lives into forms that align our goals with our values and complete our humanity has never been greater.”

 

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Rehypothecation And The Shadow Banking System

Posted by: FusionEnterprise

Tagged in: Untagged 

FusionEnterprise

To hypothecate an asset is to pledge it against a loan or liability without turning it over to the lender.  If we borrow against a property in the game of Monopoly, we don’t deliver the property to the bank, we simply turn over the deed as a symbol of our hypothecation.  Pawn shops don’t accept hypothecation, they want the watch or the ring or the gun.  They want real collateral in their possession.  Quality collateral is that which more than covers the extent of the liability.  When a loan is “under water,” or “upside down,” it is no longer backed by quality collateral.

If the bank holding such a pledge uses it to secure another transaction by pledging (rehypothecating) it to another bank and that bank uses that pledge to pledge it to another, we call this a collateral chain and at some point it becomes difficult to determine who really owns what.  Quality collateral ceases to exist.  The word chain can be likened to a pyramid or Ponzi scheme as the links between the owner and the property become ever fainter.  The wealth effect of money creation by The Federal Reserve has now been extended to other asset classes such as land, houses, precious metals, etc.

The Federal Reserve was established to create money backed by debt.  Loaning money at interest and then reloaning it as it is repaid and reloaning it again, has the effect of creating new money.  The more times it turns over in a year the more the money supply expands.  We call this the velocity of money.  For about 60 years the money supply was allowed to grow at a moderate rate, allowing the 1% to get rich but not too rich.  Then in 1971 Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard and in the following years the link between the dollar and quality collateral grew ever fainter.

To compound the matter, while the money supply started to grow at a much faster pace (1971 – 2008), The Shadow Banking System was given more and more freedom to set up elaborate collateral chains which in turn generated obscene bonuses for the bankers who racked up enormous paper profits out of thin air.  This out of control banking system crashed in 2008 and in an effort to prop up the corpse The Federal Reserve began to pump enormous amounts of money/debt into the market.  They didn’t call it printing money out of thin air, they instead called it Quantitative Easing.  So we went from dollars backed by gold, to dollars backed only by Treasury Notes purchased by banks all over the world, to dollars backed by … nothing. 

The money supply grew from near zero to $100 billion from 1913 to 1971.  It increased eight fold to $800 billion by 2008, a dangerous pattern.  The system crashed as junk collateral was pawned off as quality collateral. The criminals who perpetrated this hoax have been deemed too big to jail by the Attorney General of the United States of America.  In the next five years the money supply passed $3,700 billion, a curve so steep it looks like a wall.  Meanwhile the income differential between CEO’s of large corporations and the average worker under them went from 10 times to 400 times.  Billionaires on Wall Street proliferated at an alarming rate.

Why did the world financial system continue to buy into this thing called Reserve Currency, defined by Bretton Woods and denominated in US dollars?  Why was it possible to establish Petro-dollars as the only way to buy oil even after the gold standard was dismantled?  The answer is complex and involves complicity of the Banksters who manage The Shadow Banking System all over the western world.  In the final analysis it hinges on the web of rehypothecation underlying the paper empires created by banks.  The disintegration of collateral.  And one big lie.

The lie was that we still have the gold.  In fact the whole system depended on keeping the price of gold from going through the roof.  The dollar cannot have value if it is too weak to buy gold.  So for decades the Banksters manipulated gold in the market - leasing it, hypothecating it, rehypothecating it, shorting it, leveraging it, burying it in paper contracts and yes even selling it outright to flood the market.  Until there is no gold left in the vaults.  The stash of thousands of tons belonging to the citizens of America and to other countries who gave it to us for safe keeping, is gone. 

Today for every ounce of real gold, there are 100 ounces of paper gold.  And the real gold now lives in India and China.  China will call the shots at the next Bretton Woods conference and it will not be held in New Hampshire. 

Let us be clear about two things.  Quantitative Easing is nothing more than printing money out of thin air.  And rehypothecation is nothing more than confiscating an asset and throwing it into a bottomless abyss, a mire known as the shadow banking system.

It is an elaborate scheme to transfer wealth to a few, the few that I am calling MiLords (the .1% or mil or one in a thousand). Quality collateral is nowhere to be found and this elaborate paper scheme to defraud the masses is about to unravel.  Beware.

Do not let fancy words invented to disguise crime fool you.  Do not let the rule of law be subverted by companies too big to fail led by executives too big to jail.  Do not let the Banksters point the finger at gold hoarders, or whistle blowers, or food stamp recipients.  Do not let the false battle between Republicans and Democrats pull attention away from the real issue. 

The Federal Reserve and its minions are perpetrating a giant fraud, selling the American people down the Yellow River for 30 pieces of gold.  Bad analogy.  They have sold all the gold in Fort Knox for 30 years of unbridled wealth accretion and if the truth be told they are guilty of treason. 

Rehypothecation indeed!

 

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Climacterics Now

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“We view prospective near-term and multi-year returns as strongly unfavorable, and prospective market risk as unusually elevated.”

John Hussman, January 2014

Choppy, decidedly Unbullish Equities Market Action thus far in 2014 is one Major Clue the Climacterics we earlier forecast have arrived in Key Markets. They may take a few days to a few weeks to fully develop, but they have arrived.

For example, on Wednesday, January 8, 2014 we forecast Major Reversals in Key sectors. We identified some of the Signals that such Reversals were impending.

Sure enough, two days later those Key Sectors gave us a Foretaste of those moves — a Dramatic Preview of what is coming

Developments since January 8 verified the Reality of what we have been claiming for weeks, a Market Moving Truth denied publically by major governments and much of the Main Stream Media – the fact that the Economy is not recovering.

Indeed, Deepcaster and a few other Independent Analysts have been claiming for months that the Economy is not recovering. (See Note 1)

And Friday, January 10’s shockingly-below-estimates Employment numbers confirmed our claims. Real Retail Sales and Real Weekly Earnings also declined in December.

Predictably, the lousy numbers caused the US$ to swoon on Friday and bonds to strengthen and Gold and Silver to pop up.

Even more significant, when Equities crashed on Monday (01/13), the $US also Fell. This confirms the fact that the $US is decreasingly seen as a Risk Aversion Haven as it would have been in past years. Not a Good Harbinger for the $US going Forward.

Importantly, last Friday’s and the subsequent Monday’s Equities moves and the resulting Moves in other Markets foreshadow Major moves to come in the next very few months, except that when the $US dumping becomes quite severe, US Treasury Bond Strength will weaken dramatically as Sovereign and Major Investors exit U.S. Treasury paper en masse.

However, the $US strengthened again (basis USDX) after the January 10 and 13 Equities Takedown Indeed, Short-term the structural weakness of the Euro and unresolved Eurozone problems and the ostensible Recovery of the US Economy should keep the $US above 78 basis USDX for a while longer, but not for the long term.

Going forward, consider that in order to keep long term interest rates low the Fed will have to continue Bond Buying via QE (i.e., Stop tapering), and eventually increase, QE. Notice how a three-% yield on the ten-year is the “line in the sand” for the Bond Market. Indeed, But in our most recent Alert we noted a stunning repeated correlative Market Move when the US 10Yr Note Yield is threatening to go over 3% on the 10 Year – The Correlated Move provides A Superb Profit Opportunity for sure, going forward.

Longer term, as QE continues, investors will need a refuge from QE-generated Monetary Price Inflation and a Profit and Wealth Preservation Opportunity as well, and thus will have to flee to Tangible Assets.

No surprise then that the CRB Commodity Index was up on the lousy U.S. Economic News in a counterintuitive Move. Commodities Price Strength is in the cards at least until Equities top later this year.

Later, as Equities Crash, Commodities used for building (e.g., Dr. Copper) will swoon too.

However, given World Population Growth of 80 million a year. Food Commodities, as well as Gold & Silver, will be the most profitable and Wealth Protective places to be in the next few years.

In that connection, we note that despite ongoing Cartel (Note 2) Gold Price Capping Attempts, we now have a confirmed Uptrend for Gold stocks. The Market Vectors Gold Miners Fund (CGDX) recently confirmed its break above its 50 DMA! What a welcome development after over two years of declines.

But short term the picture is still mixed for the Gold Market and thus the Great Launch up may be delayed a bit more, as this JBGJ excerpt below demonstrates.

In other words, The Cartel’s Price Capping Attempts continue with some success. But The Cartel’s desperation is reflected in these attempts. Note the BOLD portion of JBGJ

“Indian ex-duty premiums AM $125.41, PM N/A with world gold at $1,241 and $1,236.85. Not one of the 5 importing cities Reuters monitors altered their prices for the PM reading despite material moves in world gold and the rupee, a situation JBGJ has never seen before. Based on the AM reading local gold was $264.84 or 21.34% above world gold (Wednesday 21.59%). If the published price PM premium were taken seriously Indian gold was 21.87% above world gold. The rupee closed little changed at $1= R61.535 (R61.54) and the stock market slipped 0.11%.

“There is no doubt the legal Indian gold trade is in a surly mood. They are being seriously harassed: see   Government seeks gold purchase information from jewellers as smuggling rises. JBGJ continues to wonder how viable politically this anti-gold campaign is….

“Shanghai gold closed at a premium of $13.35 to world gold of $1,240.25 on volume equivalent to 13,968 NY contracts (Wednesday $13.50/$1,241.64/14,565 NY). “Delivery Volume” fell to a low 5.554 tonnes (Wednesday 8.524 tonnes). JBGJ wonders if the tightness in London delivery bar noted last night is connected….

“MineWeb’s enterprising reporter Shivom Seth who is usually focused on India has published an upbeat China story   Fresh wave of gold buying ahead of Chinese New Year  which consolidates many recent positive anecdotes:…

“Last night contemplating the steady rise in world gold JBGJ remarked that the Bears needed to exert themselves again. In the event Feb gold peaked at $1,244.90 (up $6.60) about 1-10 AM and then was swept down almost $8 by 3-30 on quite heavy selling. Estimated CME web site volume as of 8AM was a considerable 57,000 lots: estimated at 9AM was 73,628 NY.  

“Subsequently gold has recovered on the NY economic data but volume has faded. The Gartman Letter  today takes note of  

“a very real, and apparently very powerful seller of gold”

active at the recent highs but so far the objective seems to be to cap gold rather than depress it – unlike last year.”

Capping Continues, John Brimelow JBGJ, 01/16/2014

Massive Climacterics such as Equities and $US and US T-Bond Tops and Gold and Silver bottoming, are developing. Savvy investors should consider putting on long Gold, Silver and Miners positions such as the ones we have recommended.

Those who recognize and take advantage of these Climacterics are likely to substantially Profit.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
January 17, 2014

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported January 16, 2014
1.5%     /    9.08%

U.S. Unemployment reported January 10, 2014
6.7%     /     23.3%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported December 20, 2013
1.97%        /     -1.70%

U.S. M3 reported January 3, 2014 (Month of December, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     3.32% (est . ) (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.512 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


Why Gold Price Suppression Can NOT Continue

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“Market data provider Nanex in Winnetka, Illinois, tonight produces proof that Monday’s smash down in the gold futures market was not a mistaken ‘fat finger’ trade but the product of a high-frequency algorithm trading program painstakingly designed to take the market down. Nanex’s report, with great charts, is here: http://www.nanex.net/FlashCrash/OngoingResearch.html ”

www.gata.org 01/08/2014

“…I don’t see why they can’t just keep doing this. After all, with each smash it gets easier for them to cover their short positions.”  

“Exposing them by somebody standing for gold delivery which can’t be delivered, is the way, but seems less and less likely. After all, Germany asked for gold delivery and didn’t get it. Nothing much happened!”

Private Communications to Deepcaster

The evidence that a Cartel (Note 1) of Central Bankers and Allies/Owners has been suppressing the Prices of Gold and Silver (so as not to have A Real Money Competitor, to their Fiat Currencies and Treasury Securities) has been building for years.

Indeed, the evidence is so overwhelming that it is increasingly making its way into certain Main Stream Media.

But the foregoing private communications to Deepcaster raise a Key Question. “Why can’t they just keep doing this?”

Many of us Gold Partisans have wondered the same thing, especially in light of the fact that Germany asked for its Gold back and did not get it.

But the Answer is Clear. Gold Price Suppression can not continue, which raises the questions “Why?” and “How much longer will it last?”

It can not continue indefinitely because available Physical Supplies are being drawn down much faster than Production plus “Scrap” can replace. We and others have noted the dramatic drawdown in Comex Supplies Registered (available) for Delivery. And depending on time and the Particular Market the spread between the Paper Price and the Higher Price for Deliverable Physical is often Quite Substantial.

Indeed, the “shortage” of Physical is already so substantial that Germany asked for its Physical to be repatriated from New York, and all they got was a Promise for seven years of Incremental Deliveries.

So given the foregoing evidence of Price Suppression, plus the Sovereign Nation of Germany’s Inability to repatriate its own Gold, what chance is there that the Price Suppression will end soon or ever?

Answer, a Good Chance of “soon.” Consider first The Challenge: every National (or Regional, as the Euro) Fiat Currency Printer in the World has an interest in attempting to delegitimize Gold and Silver as Real Money, by suppressing its Price. India’s Central Bank, after all, has (against popular sentiment) piled on Tariff after Tariff to slow the Importation of Gold.

But the Draw Down of Physical Continues, led by China, the World’s largest Importer and Producer. And China does not export Gold.

But One Key that the Price Suppression must end was Provided by another Communicant

“That’s a great question. Why can’t they just continue to do this? Perhaps they are loading up on physical at these reduced prices (most particularly Chinese interests are doing so) and then they’ll let the price go up?”

Private Communications to Deepcaster

China is clearly moving toward making a Gold-Backed Yuan the World’s Reserve Currency and is likely temporarily Complicit in facilitating the “low” current Prices so they can continue to Buy on the cheap.

But given the Physical Drawdown this can not last.

The German Repatriation Attempt Failure is a superb example of just how severe the Available Physical Supply Shortage is. (Germany was undoubtedly “leaned on” to accept Promises of a seven year Repatriation Scheme by its and the European Central Banks’ Central Bankers in the same way the US Taxpayer was leaned on to provide the Multi-hundred Billion Dollar Bank Bailout in 2008 – “The whole System will collapse unless you do it our way” is the likely [fallacious] “Argument”).

And the Regulators have proven themselves useless at best, and complicit at worst.

“MIDAS NOTE: So why and heck is it that someone doesn’t demand the identity of who pulled this trigger and call them out?

“What a lame dead regulatory/investigative world we have in the US.”

LeMetropoleCafe.com

But the Reason the Price Suppression can not continue much longer despite Cartel Suppression attempts is found in the recent Headline

“One week into 2014 UK Royal Mint Runs out of Gold Coins”

“JBGJ understands that the main market for these coins is the Gulf and India (H/T GMS). Very likely the demand surge reflects Indian smuggling off take.”

JBGJ 01/09/2014

China and “Retail” Investors in the Gulf, India and around the World are implementing an End Run around the Cartel’s Paper Price Suppression Scheme. Therefore, Expect more Delivery Failures, followed by Massive Launches up in Price.

The “when” can be answered by Monitoring the Markets and Physical Flows as Deepcaster’s Reports and Alerts to its Subscribers reflect.

No surprise then that even the “smart” Establishment Money and Opinion is shifting to a “Buy Gold” Perspective. Note The Gartman Letters’ Admonishment, and JBGJ’s correct observation:

“…we note the ‘reversal’ to the upside two weeks ago which still obtains even despite the ‘attack’ upon gold earlier this week when prices fell $30/oz. in a matter of moments. The fact that the weekly reversal in gold’s favour holds is impressive….as we watch gold buying continue at a heady pace in China and even too in India despite the latter’s government’s attempt to quell demand, we are impressed.

“…our propensity to act is rising.

The Gartman Letter

“While TGL is generally unpopular amongst gold friends, JBGJ’s observation is that the service has a pretty good buying record.”

JBGJ, 01/09/2014

And there is one more overriding Reason the Gold Price Suppression can not continue. Consider the Headlines and Introduction to Shadowstats.com 2014 Hyperinflation Report.

The Fed-led Destruction of the Purchasing Power of the World’s Reserve Currency, the U.S. Dollar, will leave one “Currency” left standing – Gold.

Extremely Difficult Circumstances in the Year Ahead:

Confluence of Economic and Systemic Crises Should Intensify  

With Global Confidence in Dollar Rattled by Uncontrollable Fiscal and Monetary Excesses, U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Have Limited Options to Address Panics  

Heavy Selling of U.S. Dollar Remains Likely Proximal Trigger for Inflation Pick-Up

Developing Hyperinflation Would Push Ongoing Recession into Deep Depression

Physical Gold Remains Primary Hedge for Preserving Wealth and Assets

"Nothing is normal: not the economy, not the financial markets, not the financial system and not the political system. The year ahead will be an extraordinarily difficult time, with a confluence of already-intensifying crises and likely panics pummeling the moribund economy, roiling the markets, and destabilizing the financial and political systems. With the federal government and Federal Reserve locked into their respective systemic-destructive fiscal and monetary policies, a related, continuing massive loss of global and domestic confidence in the U.S. dollar, should lead to an outright dumping of the U.S. currency in the global markets, setting the initial stages of a hyperinflationary great depression."

Hyperinflation 2014—The End Game Begins, No. 587: Special Commentary Shadowstats.com 01/07/2014

Physical Gold and Silver in one’s Personal Possession (NOT in Bank Vaults) are the best Protection. Deepcaster echoes Jim Rickards observation, which we paraphrase, “Those who become aware late, will wake up one day and find there is no Gold available.”

Best regards,

Deepcaster January 10, 2014

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


Are You A Critical Thinker?

Posted by: FusionEnterprise

Tagged in: Untagged 

FusionEnterprise

Yes, you respond, almost as a reflex.  I will posit here that there are several factors that might run counter to this response.  You might be open minded, fair, intelligent, questioning, well read and quite rigorous in your decision making process and yet come up short.  Critical Thinking does require all of these traits but let’s take a look at some more factors that can put you behind a very dark glass, or worse, inside of a very black box.

Are You Examining and Reexamining Your Assumptions?

For example you may be starting with the assumption that we in America live in a participatory democracy.  Yes, it has its faults but it is the greatest democracy in the history of the world and it is the best that we can hope for.  We need to strive to tweak the system by working for change, voting for our brand of politician, and speaking out against corruption.  Someone else might laugh and say, you are naïve.  We live under an Oligarchy and we are participating in a superficial form of sham democracy and the general population is seriously deluded with almost no understanding of what an Oligarchy is let alone that we are living under one.  How would you even begin to reconcile these two views?

Getting into a heated argument will not qualify as Critical Thinking.  Rather we need to uncover some strategies to take us to a new level of challenging our assumptions.  We will return to this below.

Are You Asking The Right Questions?

It is possible that asking to what degree we are operating in a democracy, a political consideration, is not the best question to get us where we want to go.  We could start with an ethical question: how can we deal the problem of greed and self interest?  Or we could ask an economic question: what is causing the growing disparity in incomes and wealth? Or we could ask a financial question: how does the 100 year old debt based monetary system skew free enterprise?  Or a legal question: how does contract law trump national sovereignty?

Wait a minute you say, this is getting way too complex.  I would respond with this:

“I would not give a fig for the simplicity this side of complexity, but I would give my life for the simplicity on the other side of complexity.” – Oliver Wendell Holmes

The journey to the other side requires a lot of effort.

Do You Know Your History?

I would suggest that we know far too much trivia and not enough about the history of political organization, the history of money, the history of the commons, the history of innovation, patent law, contract law, mining rights, systematic exploitation, religion, imperialism, anti-trust legislation, banking, etc.  The list is long and arduous. 

There are not enough people who have a sufficient grasp of history to support healthy discourse that would rise to the level of Critical Thinking.  We have a lot of really smart specialized people who are not fully educated.  Without a firm foundation in history, Critical Thinking is impossible.

Do You Understand the Present?

We suffer from an explosion of information that is impossible to fully encompass into our framework.  And so we come to rely upon various sources that we trust.  And we separate ourselves further and further from the source.  The so called Main Stream Media (MSM) becomes the arbiter of knowledge and custom for most and the population at large flounders in an ignorance that serves the interests of the few.  It is ironic that the free flow of vast quantities of information is masking the manipulation of the memes that dictate outcomes.

So ask yourself the question: am I digging it out or am I surfing the web?

Shaping Our Strategies

I maintain that there are more than enough honest self proclaimed Critical Thinkers out there to transform our world in short order, if we would take our game to a higher level.  As it is we are stuck in boxes with labels and spend a lot of time flailing in frustration against the myriad systems that entrap us.  We cluster around our particular causes that promote something near and dear to our hearts: less government, more government, an end to human trafficking, global warming, poverty and hunger, lower taxes, universal healthcare or cleaner air.  We are not bad to do so. 

However, we could seek to formulate a strategy that changes the way things are done.  We could doubt the very foundations of the systems that we have come to accept as inevitable.  And in our doubting we could imagine a world that honors our humanity.  I return to the tag line for this blog:

“The opportunity to shape the artifacts of our lives into forms that align our goals with our values and complete our humanity has never been greater.”

But it is a steep mountain of complexity to climb to get to the simplicity on the other side.

 

 https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=9054187062664562598#editor/target=post;postID=4332897799650607135;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=2;src=postname


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