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Market Movers into 2014

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“The World is Getting Closer to that End Game Every Day,”

Jim Rickards, “Currency Wars, The Making of the Next Global Crisis”

Powerful Forces Extrinsic to the Markets will determine Key Market Moves over the next few months and beyond. We identify certain of those here and indicate how they are likely to affect the Markets.

For example, “Fundamentals,” Technicals, and Interventionals all now point to an Impending (extrinsically generated) Big Move to Climax in one Key Sector, which we identified in our December Letter.

But one overwhelming Powerful Extrinsic Force has already begun to Manifest itself – and to move Markets – and will increasingly do so — Resource Nationalism

The Newly Elected self-described Pro-Business Government of Australia just determined that it was “not in Australia’s National Interest” to allow the American Ag Company Archer Daniels Midland to acquire the Australian Company, Graincorp.

And China’s recent Expansion of its Air Defense Zone to include Islands claimed by Japan is surely motivated by the significant Undersea Reserves of Oil and Gas Found around these Islands.

And France just denied Hess Oil Company Exploration Permits in the Paris Basin. Resource Nationalism is Intensifying.

Regarding The Impending Move we earlier forecast, it has been Developing for some time now , but we call our Readers attention to it again because the Fundamentals, Technicals and Interventionals are all indicating it could begin to Climax any time now.

Let us explain why we expect that move at all, and why we expect it very soon.

We must not forget that Equities have been and continue to Float Up on Sea of Fed (and other Central Bank) created QE, including especially the Ultra-low borrowing costs that have artificially inflated Corporate Balance sheets.

Moreover, Equities levels have a 90% Correlation to the size of The Fed’s Balance Sheet, a Balance Sheet which continues to grow.

Never mind that Present and immediately Prospective Equities levels are thereby a “Mirage” as Carl Icahn correctly characterizes them because they have elevated on Fed QE. Nonetheless, the levels are what they are. So where are they likely to go for the next few weeks?

If one considers that in the next few weeks

  • The Fed is not likely to Taper, or to Taper only insignificantly
  • That “Easy Money” Janet Yellen is likely to be confirmed as Fed Chairman
  • That Certain Key Equities Technicals remain Bullish (but see below)
  • That the Administrations of the U.S., China, and other Major Nations are likely to continue manipulating Key Statistics, such as GDP, Employment, and Inflation.
    In other words these Official Statistics are Bogus. [Deepcaster relies on Reliable producers of Accurate Statistics such as, primarily, Shadowstats.com for the USA.]

As a result, Corporate Earnings appear (cf. above) Robust. And Key Statistics appear Mildly Bullish, Easy Fed Money is likely to continue.

Certain (but not all) Key Technicals are very Bullish short-term. (See Caveat below.)

Conclusion: Short-term and into Year-End, we expect to see the Final Blow off Top Phase of the Equities Rally. Indeed, Equities have been moving steadily up since early October.

However, technically they (cf. the S&P) have formed an ascending Bearing Wedge. Thus it is no surprise that while “Retail” Investors are jumping into the Market, Institutional “Smart Money” is beginning to exit.

In sum, while we Expect Equities to be higher at year-end than they are now, we expect The Big Move – a sudden Decline of 5 to 10% followed by a Snap Back up leading to our Target Highs (per our December Letter) just before or after Year-End.

That would set the Stage in 2014 for the beginning The Endgame, as Rickards puts it.

Rickards is right to be concerned. Looking out to the mid and long term, Fundamentals (e.g., impending U.S. Budget and Debt Ceiling Battles) as well as long term Equities Charts with their Expanding “Jaws of Death” Wedge, are quite Bearish. Indeed, according to The Buffet Rule one should not invest in Equities Now. To paraphrase

Investors should be buyers of stocks when the aggregate market cap of the largest 5,000 companies in the US, as measured by Wilshire 5,000, falls in the range of 70% to 80% of US GNP. Today, that ratio stands at 109%. (Since 2009, the Wilshire 5,000 has risen 68%. But US Economy has grown just 17%.)

And there are two other indicators that, Mid and Long Term, Equities are set to Crash beginning some time in 2014: 1) Interest Rates have begun to rise and 2) Excessive Leverage-Margin Debt (September) is at an all-time high of over $400 Million. We shall be watching the Timing Signals very carefully.

So, amidst looming Uncertainty and Threats, what are the Prospects for Real Money? Thus far, Gold and Silver Prices continue to be vulnerable to Cartel (Note 1) Generated Takedowns.

ZeroHedge graphically describes the Cartel’s early Monday (11/25/2013) Morning Raid.

“Shortly after 1amET this morning, someone with no apparent fiduciary duty to their client's for best execution or any apparent trade allocation expertise decided it was time to dump 1500 contracts into an entirely illiquid gold futures market. The 150,000 ounce notional sell order ($184.5 million), captured graphically by Nanex, sent the price down $10 instantaneously, tripped the exchange's circuit breakers and halted the market's trading for 20 seconds (once again). This is now the 4th market halt in the past 3 months (and this time on no news whatsoever)”

“Gold Hammering Leads To Another Overnight Gold Market Halt”
ZeroHedge, 11/25/13

Can these Cartel-generated Takedowns successfully continue? We have recently forecast the Duration of the Current Takedown and that when completed it will likely Mark the long-term Base for the subsequent Great Launch Up for Gold, Silver and the Miners. Why?

Looking ahead, the Prospects for The Great Launch Up beginning by early 2014 are increasingly bolstered by the fact that Physical Bullion Supplies available for Delivery continue to Deplete – A recent report from the Comex shows the Registered (Available for Delivery) has shrunk to about 630,000 ounces. And the Demand for and Recognition of the Importance of, Physical, is increasing. The Swiss Nationalist Party is pushing an Initiative to Restrict the Export of Physical Gold Bullion from Switzerland.

But the Great Vulnerability in the Market is not the Gold and Silver Price, the Prospects for which are increasingly Bright, but the Dismal Prospects for the $US.

The $US value has eroded a bit over the past couple of weeks basis USDX, and this is no surprise given the prospective ascendency of Easy Money Janet Yellen to be Fed Head.

Longer term, regarding the $US, $US Strength will likely not last for many more months either. Indeed, long-term the $US is likely doomed as the World’s Reserve Currency. China has already entered into Bilateral Currency Swap Deals with a number of Major Countries, and is the leading importer of Gold A Gold-backed Yuan as the New World Reserve Currency is on the Horizon.

The Move away from the $US as the World’s Reserve Currency has begun, and will accelerate.

Therefore, we can expect Easy Money Policies including Fed Bond Buying via QE to continue indefinitely.

This will likely keep rates on the U.S. 10 year Note below 3% for a while more, but cannot keep them from rising indefinitely. There is simply too much Fed-created Hot Money in the System. This occurs because Fed QE suppresses interest rates, which lowers borrowing costs, which artificially elevates corporate Earnings. These earnings are thus Hot, i.e., artificially created, money. Carl Icahn is therefore correct to call corporate earnings “a mirage.”

Even so, the Fundamental pressure for higher rates will eventually overwhelm Fed action therefore, short- to mid-term, we expect rates to creep up toward 3% on the 10 year.

Only when we face the Travails of early 2014 do we expect to see U.S. Treasury Bond Strength again and yields well below 3% again, but only for a very few months. After that we expect the Great Bond Bubble to burst, and Hyperinflations to take Hold. See “Fed has created an Inflation ‘Time Bomb’ Michael Kling, MoneyNews, 11/26/13.

But the Fact that other Major Nations are also devaluing their Fiat currencies via “Printing” guarantees Inflaiton of Tangible Asset Prices.

Finally, the Crude Oil Price is another Inflation Canary in the Monetary Mine.

Crude Prices took a bit of a hit when the provisional Iran Deal was announced, not so much because of the prospect of additional Crude coming on the Market, but rather because it indicates a Move toward Peace rather than War.

As well, Rising Inventories have raised WTI’s discount to Brent to an 8 Month high.

In addition to the Iran Deal, NY Fed head Bill Dudley’s recent “Taper will be reduced” talk served to take WTI Crude down to the low $90s as we write.

However, based on a similar Rationale as that for our Equities forecast above, we do expect an Equities and Crude Price Rally to begin very soon and carry into year end. Indeed, increasing Tension between China and Japan over the Disputed Islands in the South China See may provide a boost to Crude Prices as well.

Only the launching of The Great Crash, likely beginning later in 2014, will serve to deflate Crude Prices significantly once again.

Resource Nationalism, the Prospects for War and Peace, Intervention in Key Markets by Governmental and Quasi-Governmental Entities (competitive Fiat Currency Printing and Hyperinflation Prospects) and Increasing Demand for Hard Assets are the Extrinsic Forces which will move the Markets going into 2014.

Best regards,

Deepcaster November 29, 2013

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


Two Great Bubble Threats, One Great Opportunity

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“I am very cautious on equities today, This market could easily have a big drop. Very simplistically put, a lot of the earnings are a mirage. They are not coming because the companies are well run but because of low interest rates.”

11/18/13 - Carl Icahn

Very smart Investor Carl Icahn is right to call “a lot of” corporate earnings a “mirage” because by reducing borrowing costs via ongoing QE, The Fed has artificially elevated earnings.

Thus Corporate Earnings are yet another Dangerous Fed-created Asset Bubble.

With Janet Yellen’s appointment as Fed Chairman nearly a Slam Dunk (albeit a Bad One) we can expect Easy Money Policies including Bond Buying via QE to continue indefinitely.

This will likely keep rates on the 10 year below 3% for a little while more but cannot keep them from rising indefinitely. There is simply too much Fed-created Hot Money in the System. Hot Money Bubbles are inflating because Fed QE suppresses interest rates, which lowers borrowing costs, which artificially elevates corporate Earnings. These earnings are thus Hot, i.e., artificially created, money. Remove or lessen the QE and the Bubble Bursts. Carl Icahn is therefore correct to call corporate earnings “a mirage.” And such a Mirage is a Dangerous Bubble!

“It is almost comical watching stocks soaring into the stratosphere negating one negative technical warning after another and reaching levels that defy rational thinking, yet here we are.
“The investing world has been perfectly conditioned by the Central Bankers to buy every single dip, throw caution to the wind, make the word "risk" archaic, and continue to shove stocks higher and higher and higher with no end in sight. It is absolutely astonishing to watch this thing unfold. “Apparently all that is needed to make the very concept of a bear market in stocks obsolete is for endless money printing. There appears to be no consequences whatsoever to this madness as it is now the new normal.


“Maybe we will see 1800 in the S&P 500 before the month is out. Who knows? As a trader you have to go with the money flow and the chart but as an observer with a sense of history, you have to shake your head in both bewilderment and sadness. Bewilderment that so many otherwise intelligent individuals see nothing wrong with a near-permanent money creation scheme and sadness, that so many can be herded into something which has no rational basis other than the fact that it is going up.
“I do need to make one quick comment - I have stated that the broad universe of investors see no inflation signs whatsoever. Yet, one thing should be very evident - the stock market is a perfect picture of near runaway inflation but in paper assets.”

“The Bubble Keeps Getting Bigger,” Dan Norcini traderdannorcini.blogspot.com, 11/13/2013

But this Bubble creates a Great Opportunity, as we explain.

Prospectively, the Fundamental pressure (via the increasing amounts of Hot Money) for higher rates will eventually overwhelm Fed action therefore, we expect rates to continue to rise slowly, then very rapidly suddenly (see our Timing Forecasts). That is because at some point ongoing Hot Money creation crashes the Purchasing Power of the $US. Clearly, China is already working to displace the $US with a Gold-Backed Yuan as the New World Reserve Currency. When Investors and Sovereigns see this clearly there will be a Massive Flight from the $US.

As well, ongoing Fed QE not only creates an ever-more-Dangerous Bubble in the Equities Market, but also a Great Bubble in the artificially elevated Bond Market (resulting, for the past few years, in artificially suppressed interest rates). This Bubble too will break. So where to turn for Profit and Protection?

In a Non-Manipulated Market, The Massive Monetary Inflation generated by ongoing QE would generate Great Price Increases in non-Fiat (i.e., Real) Money – Gold and Silver.

But as regular Readers already know, Fed and other Central Banks, i.e., The Cartel (Note 1) have for years been conducting ongoing suppression of Paper Gold and Silver Prices, creating a Reverse Bubble, if you will.

But this Suppression is creating a Great Opportunity to buy Physical Gold and Silver at Bargain Prices. But one should invest with one’s eyes open as to the likely course and timing and results of Cartel Intervention attempts.

Consider that ‘James Mc,’ writing at LeMetropoleCafe, has become depressed because at the very likely prospect of a Takedown, but we see it as an Opportunity.

“I now see a period coming up having extremely high odds of further cartel smashes. Judging by the past 2 years of in-your-face, no regulation, blatant to extreme manipulation I'd say the odds exceed 95%... I'm issuing a severe cartel intervention warning from Friday, November 22 to Friday, December 6th. Cartel interventions and flash crashes during this period have a history of producing severe financial damage to long-based derivative portfolios. The timing of the severe cartel warning is as follows:

“Friday 11/22: Pre-option expiration Friday. “Monday 11/25: Dec. gold and silver option expirations. “Friday 11/29: Illiquid Thanksgiving holiday trade “and Dec. gold, silver first notice days. “Friday 12/6: Non-farm payroll Friday.

“If recent history is any guide they will be gunning for this period. I'd rather stick my hand into a pile of burning coal embers rather than take a long position ahead of this period.”

But even if that Prospective Takedown occurs, the Great Opportunity to buy Physical is enhanced. This is because stockpiles of Physical available for Delivery are rapidly depleting.

Indeed, Gold shipped from Hong Kong to the Mainland nearly tripled to 855 tonnes in this year to September. And that is just one entry point to Mainland China.

Looking ahead, the Prospects for The Great Launch Up beginning soon are increasingly bolstered by the fact that Physical Bullion Supplies available for Delivery continue to Deplete – A recent report from the Comex shows the Registered (Physical Available for Delivery) has shrunk to about 630,000 ounces. If only 2% of “longs” stand for Delivery, Comex Physical would be exhausted.

And India is starving for Physical Gold

“Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $157.40, PM 155.90, with worth gold at $1243.48 and $1242.85. Far above legal imports point: India continues to starve for gold. At the PM reading local Indian gold was 24.28% above would gold (Thursday24.14%).”

“Early GJ: Cheerful Chinese?,” John Brimelow, 11/22/13

In sum, soon (see our Forecasts) we expect The Great Launch UP (of Both Bullion and the Mining Shares) to begin.

In sum, these Bubble-Threats and Opportunities are the result of The Private, For-Profit Fed’s self-interested policy of protecting their Owners/Mega-Bank Clients above all.

Thus it is no surprise that former Director of the OMB, David Stockman recently said (11/14/13) that the “lunatic” policies of The Fed were engineering a global “collapse”.

But that Prospective Collapse begets a Great Opportunity.

Best regards,

Deepcaster November 22, 2013

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

 


Profit and Protect from The Great Race

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

"’I would like to see the truth come out of these confirmation hearings to discuss how completely clueless Janet Yellen was during the housing bubble,’ Schiff suggests by way of warming to the topic. Not only did Yellen fail to see the crash coming, but she was dismissive of the dangers related to our over-leveraged housing economy even as Schiff himself was doing his best to alert the public. ‘She was wrong about everything in the past and I think she will continue to be wrong once she's chairwoman.’

“Schiff says it is Yellen's faith in the fed's ability to cure what ails the economy that will prove to be America's undoing. Having learned nothing from the crisis Yellen will continue to print money until the long-anticipated currency crisis arrives and ‘brings an end to the madness,’ he argues.

“In a sense, the best case scenario is one involving a total meltdown as Schiff sees it. For six years the Fed has enabled an almost total lack of fiscal discipline. Easy money has forestalled a total collapse without ever allowing any corrective economic action. The economy has been in a medically induced coma since 2009. If Yellen is truly as inept as Schiff believes, maybe it's not too much to hope that hyper-easing will be disastrous enough to get America to snap out of it….”

“‘Clueless’ Yellen Will Trigger Collapse (Hopefully): Peter Schiff,” Jeff Mackle, Breakout, finance.yahoo.com

Major Nations around the World are competing in The Great Race.

In the course of this Great Race there will be Great Risks and also Great Opportunities for Profit and Wealth Protection, Opportunities of which we have been, and intend to continue, keeping readers apprised.

We know that The Great Race will continue for a while longer.

We also know that the Race will end Very Badly for Most National Economies and for their Unprepared Citizens, including Unprepared Investors and Traders.

Consider this recent report on the Status of The Great Race

“The European Central Bank cut its key rate last week in a decision some investors say was intended in part to curb the euro after it soared to the strongest level since 2011. The same day, Czech policy makers said they were intervening in the currency market for the first time in 11 years to weaken the koruna. New Zealand said it may delay rate increases to temper its dollar, and Australia warned the Aussie is ‘uncomfortably high….’  

"The moves threaten to spark a new round in what Brazil Finance Minister Guido Mantega in 2010 called a ‘currency war,’ barely two months after the Group of 20 nations pledged to ‘refrain from competitive devaluation’."

“Race to Bottom Resumes as Central Bankers Ease Anew: Currencies” Bloomberg News, 11/11/13

The Action in the U.S. Dollar/Euro just last week ($US up, Euro down) provides a Sterling example of how The Race is playing out.

The Race is The Race of Major National (and Regional) Banks which print Fiat Currencies to competitively Devalue those currencies.

Major Nations are competitively devaluing their currencies, in an effort to support, above all, their Commercial Bank clients/owners, and secondarily to help their economies, their exporters and apparently (given the results of several years of QE) last, their unemployed..

These Devaluations have not broken into open Currency (or Hot Military) Wars, yet. But they may when the Negative Consequences of Devaluation, e.g., Price Hyperinflation, become more apparent, and felt. Competitive Currency Devaluation is a Zero Sum Game.

In sum, these Currency Devaluation “Wars” will continue until they must stop (because, inter alia, they generate Hyperinflation of the Prices of Essential Tangible Assets). That is because most Major Economies are burdened with Unpayable Debt and Sluggish or Contracting Economies and Currency Devaluation is one way to reduce the Burden, but only temporarily.

In order to Profit and Protect, consider two Tangible Assets whose Price is determined in part by Currency Devaluation – the Monetary Metals, Gold and Silver.

Trader Dan’s recent analysis is excellent

“This week and last week, the US Dollar has been higher. Guess what happened to gold over those same two weeks? Yep - it went lower.

“The two weeks previous to those the US Dollar was weaker. Guess what gold did back then? Yes - it went higher.

“It is all coming back to the US Dollar once again. Simply put, rising interest rates in the “US tend to favor additional strength in the US Dollar as traders fear that apparent stronger economic readings will bring the Fed back in on the TAPER SIDE of the QE equation.

“When you toss in the fact that Euroland just got hit with a surprise rate reduction yesterday, is it any wonder why traders are favoring the US Dollar right now? It is also helping the greenback immensely that foreign investment appetite for US equities which continue their one-way trek higher is boosting demand for the US currency as well.

“All of this adds up to some very difficult headwinds for gold to overcome.”

“US Dollar Strength Derailing Gold,” Traderdannorcini.blogspot.com, 11/8/2013

But what is not mentioned is that Cartel (Note 2) Price Suppression has been the Main Force keeping the Prices of the Tangible Asset “Canaries” in the Monetary “Mine,” Gold and Silver, suppressed thus far!

We hasten to say that $US Strength (vis à vis Gold, Silver and Stronger Real Asset Based Currencies) will not last for much longer. Indeed, long-term the $US is likely doomed as the World’s Reserve Currency.

Thus, one Great Opportunity for Profit and Protection is to play the “Hyperinflation is Coming” Card. Consequently, Deepcaster intends to continue to keep readers apprised of probable timing. By the way, it is quite important to note that Official Figures regarding Inflation are Bogus in the U.S., China and other Key Major Nations. For example, The Real Numbers show the U.S. is Threshold Hyperinflationary already with CPI at 8.80% (Note 1).

However, notwithstanding ongoing Cartel Precious Metals Price Suppression attempts, which have been successful so far, the probability of that Great Precious Metal Launch up beginning soon (see our timing forecasts) and being sustained, increases as time passes . And the Miners stocks should explode upward as well.

Recent Positive Price Action in the HUI is encouraging – as Bullish Mining Share Prices often lead Bullish Bullion Moves. Indeed, recently, the HUI generated two Reversal Days in a row recently, and is technically set to launch higher soon but that launch has thus far not occurred. Only Cartel Price suppression can keep Mining stocks down, and that is not likely to last much longer. Unfortunately, it is entirely possible that the Prelude to the Great Launch up will be one more Brief but Major Takedown.

Remember that it is in The Cartel’s interest to demoralize Precious Metal Partisans with repeated Takedowns, and that they may well succeed with Takedowns for a little while longer.

On the Positive Side, Physical Demand will likely soon force even Paper Gold and Silver Prices higher. In the past 6 months Physical Gold eligible for COMEX delivery (so called “Registered”) has been shrinking fast… to 660,000 ounces.

Consider,

The Demand for Bullion in China and India is huge.

If a mere 2% of “longs” hold their positions and ask for delivery, COMEX inventory will be exhausted.

If/when that occurs, there will be a massive spike up in prices.

Hold your Gold and Silver Bullion and Mining Shares for future Protection and Profit.

Another Consequence of The Great Race toward Currency Devaluation has been the “ongoing” Equities Rally fueled by The private, for-profit Fed’s QE. The QE is aimed mainly at helping their shareholders/owners, the Mega-Banks. W hen we take a comparative look at Equities Charts (e.g. the Dow) over time they reflect our earlier, and continuing, forecasts.

A long term Equities Chart (e.g., The Dow) with its Expanding “Jaws of Death” Wedge is quite Bearish, a harbinger of The Great Crash to come. Indeed, according to The Buffet Rule one should not invest in Equities Now.

We paraphrase that Rule

– Investors should be buyers of stocks when the aggregate market cap of the largest 5,000 companies in the US, as measured by Wilshire 5,000, falls in the range of 70% to 80% of US GNP. Today, that ratio stands at 109%. (Since 2009, the Wilshire 5,000 has risen 68%. But US Economy has grown just 17%.)

Consider other signs of the coming Great Equities Crash

–The Shiller P/E of the S&P 500 (the index divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings) is now above 25 – a level that prior to the late-1990s dot-com bubble was seen only in the three weeks prior to the 1929 stock market crash.

–The Price-revenue ratio of the S&P 500 is double its pre-1990s bubble average.

–Over the past 40 years there have only been two other times when the DJIA has risen as fast and as far as it has off its 2009 low. The first was in the run-up to the 1987 crash. The second was in the late 1990s, during the dot-com frenzy.

But monthly and Weekly Dow Charts are Bullish…and this is consistent with our earlier forecast for an Equities Rally (now occurring) prior to the Great Crash. Therefore, re Crash Launch Timing, see our forecasts.

Stay tuned as the Jaws of Death come ever closer to closing.

Best regards,

Deepcaster November 15, 2013

Note 1: Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported October 30, 2013
1.18%     /    8.80%

U.S. Unemployment reported November 8, 2013
7.3%     /     23.5%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported November 7, 2013
1.65%        /     -1.70%

U.S. M3 reported October 24, 2013 (Month of September, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     4.12% (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.392 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


A Critical Key to EndGame Investing

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster


“FRANKFURT, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank cut interest rates to a record low on Thursday and said it could take them lower still to prevent the euro zone's recovery from stalling as inflation tumbles.

“The move took financial markets by surprise - the euro fell sharply in response while European shares rose.

“Underlining its support for the euro zone economy, the ECB also said it would prime banks with as much liquidity as required until mid-2015….

“European bank shares climbed….”

“UPDATE 6-ECB cuts rates to new low, ready to do more if needed,” Eva Taylor, reuters.com, 11/7/2013

The ECB’s recent rate-cut action (and especially its effects on the Markets) is but yet another Manifestation of the Most Powerful Ongoing Trend increasingly determining Major Markets Performance.

Understanding this Trend and its likely Denouement are Critical to successful Investing and Trading going forward, and Critical to understanding The EndGame of The Most Powerful Force driving The Markets now and going forward.

This increasingly powerful Force in the Markets and the Economy has become manifest in recent years – one even more powerful than The Force in the Star Wars movie series was purported to be.

Whether one like this Force or not, Investors and Traders ignore this Force at their Peril.

The Force is the Reality and Prospect of Fed and other Major Central Bank ongoing and increasing Intervention in Major Markets.

Consider the following accurate analysis from Bloomberg News.

“Treasury 10-year-note yields rose to the highest levels in three weeks after a U.S. manufacturing gauge rose at a faster pace than forecast, weakening the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain stimulus.

"The Institute for Supply Management factory data was a little on the strong side, so it puts the tapering fear back into the market and we start to get higher yields," said William Larkin, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management in Salem, Mass. "It's become a Fed-centric environment."

"The 10-year yield rose six basis points to 2.62% ...”

“Solid Manufacturing Report Gives 10-Year Yield A Boost” Bloomberg News, 11/4/13

Indeed, any time the Taper Fear increases in the Markets, 10 year and other Yields rise, because of the Fear that diminished Fed Buying would no longer support the Bond Market and thus maintain lower interest rates.

And the concomitant $US Strength beginning last week was a result of both

-- Eurozone Economic Weakness with Inflation reported near 4 year lows, increasing the likelihood the ECB was going to ease Monetary Policy (which, indeed, has happened), thus weakening the Euro, and

-- better than expected U.S. Manufacturing data from the recent stronger-than-expected U.S. PMI report, and an ostensibly better Jobs report released Friday, November 8.

But the Key Manifestation of the Power of The Force was that Key Markets’ reaction to both of these was to respond in light of how the Fed and other Central Banks are likely to act in light of them.

We have indeed moved into a “Central Bank-Centric” Economic and Financial Universe. The private for-profit Fed (& other Major Central Banks) are indeed The Force. But there is an increasing Downside to this Interventionist Force, including Hyperinflation Risks, Misallocation of Capital and Artificial and Unsustainable Market levels. Consider additional details the Reuters report on the ECB action.

“The 23-man Governing Council had faced intense pressure to act after a shock slump in euro zone inflation to 0.7 percent in October, far below the ECB target of just under 2 percent….

“Draghi stressed that the ECB still had an "easing bias" to its policy stance. By contrast, many economists expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin withdrawing stimulus next year.

"’This will give European exporters much-needed breathing space, with the euro currency finally falling back,’ David Thebault, head of quantitative sales trading at Global Equities in Paris, said of the cut.

“The euro slid more than 1 percent on the day to hit a seven-week low of $1.3304, down from around $1.3490 just before the ECB announcement.

“LIQUIDITY FOR LONGER

“Draghi reaffirmed the central bank's forward guidance that rates would hold at ‘present or lower levels’ for an extended period and said he saw no threat of broad deflation.

“He also said banks would be able to rely on as much liquidity as they needed for longer, with the bank's main refinancing operations to be offered at fixed rate with ‘full allotment’ until at least July 2015.

“European bank shares climbed….”

Ibid.

And consider the Impact of Central Bank Policies on Equities Markets. The S&P is up 24% this year, but Official U.S. GDP forecasts have fallen from 2% to 1.69% and Real GDP (per Shadowstats.com -- Note 1) is Negative. Clearly Fundamentals do not support such elevated stock prices.

In sum, the result of Major Central Banks QE has been and increasingly continues to be:

1) Massive boosts to Mega-Banks (several of which are shareholders of the Private for-profit Fed) Profits and Profits Prospects.

2) Massive Financial Assets Inflation and a resulting Wealth Effect benefitting mainly the already Ultra-Rich and

3) No substantial benefit to the Real Economy or Taxpaying Upper-Middle and Middle Class Workers

This (#3) is reflected in the .7% Euro Zone Inflation Rate in the Real Economy to which the ECB Committee refers – the Eurozone Economy is not recovering.

In sum, under the Pretense of helping the Real Economy, the QE of the ECB (and Fed and other Central Banks) helps mainly the Mega-Banks and Financial Assets Owners

And there are other Negative Consequences flowing from the Central Banks’ QE.

For example, long-term, regarding the $US Primary Trend, the $US has been and continues to be battered by The Feds “No Taper/QE to Infinity/Print-More-Money Policy, by continued Deficit Spending (i.e. repeatedly raising the Debt Ceiling, a consequence of the ignorant and/or careless Obama Admin pressure) and by a panoply of Bilateral Currency Swap Deals which have not included the $US (cf. The recent Chinese Yuan-Euro Swap Deal).

Major Nations Continue to move away from using the $US as the World’s Reserve Currency, a move injurious to holders of Dollar-denominated Assets.

But perhaps the Greatest Negative Consequence is that, having embarked on QE, the Central Banks are finding it impossible to stop for reasons laid out by Alasdair Macloed

“This week an article in Euromoney points out that liquidity in bond markets is drying up….

“The reason for deteriorating liquidity in bond markets is due in part to yields being unnaturally low…. if the Fed insists on mispricing the market with its interventions and zero interest rate policy it must fully support the market with both QE and also twist applied to the yield curve to maintain market liquidity.

“For the investment analysts and commentators that still expect tapering this must come as something of a surprise. The underlying point they have missed is that once a central bank embarks on a policy of printing money as a cure-all, it is impossible to stop, or even to just taper without risking a liquidity crisis. Increasingly illiquid markets are now telling us that QE should be increased.

“The point was rammed home this week by the ECB's decision to lower interest rates….

“At least the ECB rate cut should defuse tapering expectations in US markets, … The Fed now needs to plant the suggestion that QE will have to be increased…”

“There’s a Liquidity crunch developing,” Alasdair Macloed goldmoney.com, 11/08/2013

But unending, and increasing, QE is leading, already, to threshold Hyperinflation in the Real Economy (Note 1) or, more accurately, to Hyperstagflation.

Thus wise Investors must consider Protection, via Precious Metals, from Central Bank Intervention and consequent ongoing Fiat Currency Devaluation and Hyperinflation. They must also cope with Suppression of Gold and Silver Prices by the Cartel (Note 2).

Recent $US Strength provided yet another Pretext/Opportunity for The Cartel (Note 2) to take down paper Gold and Silver Prices again and Commodities in general recently. But given the increasing demand for Delivery of Physical Bullion this cannot continue without an eventual upward launch of Gold and Silver Prices.

The fact is that acquisition of Physical Gold and Silver Bullion by Major Players, and more than just China and India, continues to increase.

This is reflected in the Fact that, just in the past 6 months Physical Gold eligible for COMEX delivery (so called “Registered”) has been shrinking fast… to 660,000 ounces.

If a mere 2% of “longs” hold their positions and ask for delivery, COMEX inventory will be exhausted.

If/When that occurs, there will be a massive spike up in prices.

And that EndGame result is coming, because the Central Banks are locked in to continuing QE. And they will have to continue QE because the Real Economy is not recovering. Consider Shadowstats

Third-Quarter Data Show Slowing or Stagnant Economic Growth.   The big economic reports are in for September, except for the official housing data that have been delayed until the end of November, and except for the initial third-quarter GDP estimate due for release on November 7th.  The available numbers overwhelmingly support a sharp slowdown in in third-quarter 2013 GDP growth, from the 2.5% currently estimated as the headline, annualized quarterly real (inflation-adjusted) growth rate for second-quarter GDP.  Eventually, third-quarter GDP growth should reflect an outright quarterly contraction.

“Reporting in third-quarter employment and real retail sales showed slowing economic activity on a quarterly basis.  With real retail sales corrected for understatement of the CPI-U inflation used in deflating the series, sales contracted on both a quarterly and annual basis….”

“No. 570: Economic Review, September CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings,” Shadowstats.com, 10/30/2013

“Despite the nonsensical headline 2.8% third-quarter GDP growth—estimated today (November 7th) by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)—the economy still has not recovered and shows no prospects of any near-term recovery in business activity.  If anything, the new data suggest that industry will have to cut back on production, in order to reduce rapidly rising, unwanted inventories that have not moved due to weak sales.  GDP-related updates of money supply velocity are graphed in the Hyperinflation Watch .

“Confirming one reason for weak consumption, www.SentierResearch.com released its estimate today for the September 2013 real median household income index.  The index was little changed on the upside, where the gain was not statistically meaningful.  Depressed levels of household income mean the consumer does not have the wherewithal to drive an economic rebound. …”

“No. 571: Third-Quarter GDP, Money Supply Velocity, September Household Income,” Shadowstats.com, 11/07/2013

Be prepared to Profit and Protect from continuing QE and its Consequences.

Best regards,

Deepcaster November 8, 2013

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported October 30, 2013
1.18%     /    8.80%

U.S. Unemployment reported November 8, 2013
7.3%     /     23.5%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported November 7, 2013
1.65%        /     -1.70%

U.S. M3 reported October 24, 2013 (Month of September, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     4.12% (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.392 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


An Essential Strategy for Profit & Protection

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“Facebook creates less business value than any other digital marketing opportunity ... [so] ... Don’t dedicate a paid ad budget for Facebook…

“We asked 395 executives from the US, the UK, and Canada how satisfied they were with the business value they get from 13 different online marketing sites and tactics. You’d expect a site boasting the largest audience and the biggest collection of data to fare well. But we found that Facebook offered less value than anything else on our list .... The least valuable tactic within Facebook? Those paid ads onto which Facebook has shifted focus.”

“Facebook Doomed? Forrester Says Ads Tell a Sad Story”, Jim Edwards finance.yahoo.com, 10/29/13

It is no surprise to us that the First Rank Market Research Firm, Forrester Research, has published a Quite Negative Opinion on Facebook.

Several weeks ago, we characterized the current infatuation with Facebook as a “Fad” and laid out reasons it should be a weakening economic (and therefore stock price) performer in the months going forward.

[Indeed, given the seemingly unending revelations about the Hacking Into and Compromising of Supposedly Secure Databases, how many thinking persons are going to want to continue putting their Private, Business and Personal information online and in “the cloud” anyway?!]

But a larger, quite simple but Essential Strategy for Profit and Protection is to be learned from considering, retrospectively, the fate of Blackberry, Dell and Nokia and prospectively, Facebook. Indeed it is an Essential Key to Profiting Going Forward.

For example, the recent 120 Day Performance Chart of One Major Sector illustrates the Essential Key to Profiting and Wealth Protection going forward.

And employing The Profit Opportunity Key has allowed us to recommend very profitable Trades recently. But employing that Key will also be increasingly important to Profiting and Wealth Protection going forward for both Investors and Traders.

Certain Mega-Forces have recently been and will increasingly be the Major Determinant of Major Sectors, and Individual Securities, Performance going Forward, as we have pointed out in our most recent Letter and Alerts. And these Mega-Forces increase the Importance of This Strategic Key.

Understanding how and why these Mega Forces are Now more Important than they have been for the last several decades, explains why The Key is more important than ever.

Consider that, if one reviews the chart of the Mini Dow for the last four months, one can easily see how we recommended profitable Put and Call Positions, alternatively, recently.

The Mega-Forces about which we have been writking pushed the Dow UP, Down, Up, Down, Up over that four month period.

And while the Dow is higher than it was 4 months ago it is not much higher. Not only does this Uptrending sideways Chop illustrate our Maxim – “Buy and Hold rarely Works Anymore”.

But it also illustrates another Key to Profit; indeed perhaps The most important Key to Profit going Forward – Investors and Tradersmust be just as willing to ‘Go Short’ as to ‘Go Long’. (We wager that Holders of shares of Blackberry, Nokia, and even Apple, now wish they had shorted at the right time.)

And given the Mega-Forces at play going forward, this simple Maxim will be increasingly true for the foreseeable future.

Speaking of Shorting Opportunities -- opportunities for both Profit and Wealth Protection going forward, Jim Sinclair recently gave us excellent Clues.

“Renowned gold expert Jim Sinclair says financial calamity is just around the corner for America. Sinclair contends, “We are facing the annihilation of currency. We are facing the shift of America as the leading and most influential nation of the world to some form of banana republic. . . . If it wasn’t for food stamps, we would be facing long lines of people waiting for free food.” For gold, everything hinges on the U.S. dollar, and Sinclair says, “I think the dollar gets hammered. I believe we are headed for hyperinflation.” One of the many black swans, according to Sinclair, is the possible abandonment of the U.S. dollar by Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia stopped selling oil only in U.S. dollars, what would that do to the buying power of the buck? Sinclair says gasoline would be “$10 a gallon very soon, without a doubt.”

“Sinclair predicts retirement funds and bank deposits are going to be taken by the government. How much of your money could you lose? Sinclair says, “In Cypress, it was a total of 83%. . . . Cypress is the blueprint, and it’s what we are going to experience here in the United States.” Jim Sinclair, who has just accepted the position as Chairman of the Advisory Board for the establishment of the Singapore Gold Exchange, says, “The exchange will trade physical gold only and not future gold. . . . You have to make delivery.” Meaning, there will be no naked short selling or manipulation of this new market. Sinclair says, “This will emancipate gold from the paper price.” How high will gold go? Sinclair predicts, by 2016, “Gold will be $3,200 to $3,500 an ounce.”

“Annihilation of U.S. Dollar Coming-Jim Sinclair” Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com, 10/30/13

And consider Shadowstats.com re the same Congeries of Issues.

“…Due to ongoing solvency issues within the U.S. banking system, that Federal Reserve is locked into a liquidity trap of flooding the system with liquidity, with no resulting surge in the money supply.  Yet, the Fed’s quantitative easings have damaged the dollar, which in turn has triggered sporadic inflation from the related boosting of oil prices.  The overhang of dollars in the global markets—outside the formal U.S. money supply estimates—is well in excess of $10 trillion.  As those funds are dumped in the global markets, the weakening dollar will trigger dumping of U.S. Treasury securities and general flight from the U.S. currency.  As the Fed moves to stabilize the domestic financial system, the early stages of a currency-driven inflation will be overwhelmed by general flight from the dollar, and a resulting surge the domestic money supply.  Intensifying the crisis, and likely coincident with heavy flight from the dollar, odds also are high of the loss of the dollar’s global-reserve-currency status.

“These circumstances can unfold at anytime, with little or no warning.  Irrespective of short-lived gyrations, the dollar should face net, heavy selling pressure in the months ahead from a variety of factors, including, but certainly not limited to: (1) a lack of Fed reversal on QE3; (2) a lack of economic recovery and renewed downturn; (3) concerns of increased quantitative easing by the Fed; (4) inability/refusal of those controlling the government to address the long-range sovereign-solvency issues of the United States; (5) declining confidence in, and mounting scandals involving the U.S. government.  

“It is the global flight from the dollar—which increasingly should become a domestic flight from the dollar—that should set the early stages of the domestic hyperinflation….”

“Consumer Liquidity, September Retail Sales, PPI,” John Williams, Shadowstats.com, 10/29/2013

Regarding the $US, it is clear that the Main Question is not “Whether?” but “When?”

And it is not just the $US that is being degraded by QE, et. al., but the Purchasing Power of All Fiat Currencies.

Consider the following study:

“According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, there is no historical precedence for a fiat currency that has succeeded in holding its value. Twenty percent failed through hyperinflation, 21% were destroyed by war, 12% destroyed by independence, 24% were monetarily reformed, and 23% are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes. “The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is 27 years, with the shortest life span being one month. Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency in existence. At a ripe old age of 317 years it must be considered a highly successful fiat currency. However, success is relative. The British pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver, so it’s worth less than 1/200 or 0.5% of its original value. In other words, the most successful long standing currency in existence has lost    99.5% of its value.
“Given the undeniable track record of currencies, it is clear that on a long enough timeline the survival rate of all fiat currencies drops to zero.”

Chris Mack, ResourceInvestor.com

Deepcaster attentively monitors the “When” to short, and vis à vis “what” as appropriate, signals and reports and recommends to Subscribers.

Meanwhile, it behooves Investors and Traders alike to prepare for a weaker $US (and other Fiat Currencies in Purchasing Power Terms), by going short at the right time.

And considering the fate of Fiat Currencies in general provides just one example of why it is Essential to be just as willing to “Go Short” as to “Go Long.”

Best regards,

Deepcaster November 1, 2013


Should the United States cent be eradicated, as it is in Canada?

Posted by: headturner

Tagged in: Untagged 

headturner

Final week, Canada produced its final penny. Experts say that the move will save the country $11 million a year. Some say the exact same thing should take place in the United States. How many times have you needed additional information on where can i get a payday loan, and turned to an internet search on instant approval payday loans? Look no further, all the info you need is at http://www.matchfinancial.com


Avoiding the penny



The cost of copper is up and with it the price of minting a cent. Making a penny costs more than two cents. Earlier this year, the Obama administration recommended finding less expensive materials to make cents and nickels.



But our neighbors to the north have gone one better. Canada has eliminated the 1 cent coin, which has been in circulation for 104 years. The final Canadian penny was produced Friday.



Costly to create



The cent has pretty much become worthless, meaning it was not worth the 1.6 cents needed to create pennies in Canada. Vending machines and parking meters will not take them, and customers find them more annoying than other things.



US costs



Rick Smith of the Motley Fool explained that the U.S. could save $70 million a year by finishing production of cents. Each cent costs 2.41 cents to create in America. That means the U.S. is losing more than Canada on the production.



Giving to charity



To get the penny out of circulation, the Canadian government suggests people donate them to charity.



Jim Flaherty, the Canadian Finance Minister, said:



"We hope all Canadians will consider putting their last pennies to good use by donating them to charity. I consider it fitting they could have a lasting impact on causes that Canadians believe in."


Increments of five used


Some have expressed concern that eliminating the cent will trigger merchants to round up to the nearest nickel, costing customers more in the long run. However, according to the Wisconsin State Journal, that has been debunked by researchers in Canada and the States. Some prices would round down to the nearest nickel and others round up, making it a virtual wash.



US tried to change



There have been two times in recent years that the United States has tried to get rid of the penny. This involves the Legal Tender Modernization Act of 2001 and the Currency Overhaul for an Industrious Country (COIN) Act of 2006. The latter would have required that every little thing round to the nearest 5 cents just like the Canadian law.



How about dollar bills?


Experts have other opinions too. For instance, one article in the Wisconsin Lacrosse Tribune suggests that getting rid of the $1 bill and replacing it with a $1 coin is a really good plan on top of eliminating the penny. It would not be mistaken for a quarter if it were large enough.



The article suggests that $5.6 billion could possibly be saved over 30 years by the United States government if it would just make this change. Canada changed to the dollar coin years back.



Paper bills only final a few years while coins do not have to be remade for years, which is why it would create savings.



Canada not producing pennies anymore



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uEMguHK-Nc



Sources:



Lacrosse Tribune

Chicago Tribune
Daily Finance


BUBBLENOMICS PROSPECTS & ANTIDOTES

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“The question is not tapering. The question is at what point will they increase the asset purchases to say $150 [billion], $200 [billion], a trillion dollars a month…

“The Fed has boxed itself into a position wher there is no exit strategy (and created) a colossal asset bubble…”

“Marc Faber: Fed Might Hike QE to $1 Trillion a Month” moneynews.com, 10/21/2013

It is pretty clear that The Fed has created both a colossal asset bubble as well as a debt bubble and that they have boxed themselves (and most of us) into a corner.

Continue QE and you get Hyperinflation (the U.S. is already on the threshold at 9.17% CPI – Note 1).

Halt, or even Taper, QE and the Markets Crash.

But there are Antidotes – Opportunities for Investors to Profit and Protect.

And one such Opportunity arises in the Precious Metals Market.

“…On Friday, October 11, when there was no sign of any deal between US Congress members and the Obama White House that would end the government shutdown, the Chicago CME Group, which operates Comex - the Chicago Commodity Exchange, where contracts in gold derivatives are traded - announced that at 8:42am Eastern time the trading was halted for 10 seconds after a safety mechanism was triggered because a 2-million-ounce (56.7 million grams) gold futures sell order was executed.

“Something rotten in gold market 

“The result of that huge paper gold sale was that at just the time when a possible US government debt default would send investors in a panic rush to the safety of buying gold, instead, the price plunged $30 an ounce to a three-month low of $1,259.60 an ounce. Market insiders believe the reason was direct market manipulation. …

“China, gold prices & US default threats,” William Engdahl Rt.com, 10/21/2013
William Engdahl is an award-winning geopolitical analyst and strategic risk consultant whose internationally best-selling books have been translated into thirteen foreign languages.

But these Cartel (Note 2) Takedowns provide an Extraordinary Buying Opportunity . But when can we expect a sustainable Upside Launch? Has one already begun?

Since we last reported, certain Key Sectors have moved into Sustainable (for a while) Bullish Trends..

Others have signaled launching into Bullish Uptrends, but these are likely not sustainable.

In our November Letter, we identify which are likely sustainable and forecast the likely Fate and timing of these recent Launches which are likely not sustainable.

Most Important however is identifying the Forces which Impel these Market Moves.

One such Congeries of Forces is Economic. Therefore Consider this comment on the Real Numbers from Shadowstats.com

The U.S. Economy Continues to Weaken.  The first major economic reporting since the reopening of the federal government has confirmed a deteriorating outlook for U.S. business activity.  As shown in the accompanying graph of private payrolls, the pre-government-shutdown employment trends through September were downright negative.  On a three-month, moving-average basis, payrolls have been slowing since the beginning of 2013, through September.  Private payrolls are shown here, in that they were not distorted by 2010 Census hiring and firing.  Although these payrolls will not be hit directly by the October government furloughs, they certainly will reflect secondary impact.”

“COMMENTARY NUMBER 566,” John Williams,
shadowstats.com, 10/22/2013

The question is not “‘if” but “when” will the Equities Markets begin to reflect the Fact the Economy is not recovering.

Indeed, these Extraordinarily Powerful Forces will generate Mega-Moves in Key Markets in the next few weeks or very few months.

So it is essential to focus on Key ones.

Perhaps the Predominant Major Force is The Fed. Years-long Fed Money “Printing” and Easy Credit Policies have not only created Harmful Asset Bubbles (witness the Housing Bubble Burst which caused much suffering) and more Wealth for the Wealthy Mega-Bankers but not the Middle Class.

But Fed Policy has also put the $US as the World’s Reserve Currency increasingly at Risk, and thus threatened the Wealth, and indeed, Safety, of all who have predominately $US denominated Assets.

Worse, such Fed Policy of debasing the currency appears to have encouraged the Chinese to accelerate their War to replace the $US with a Gold-Backed Chinese Yuan as the World’s Reserve Currency.

Not only are Chinese pronouncements calling for a “de-Americanized World” and, via their Dagong Credit Rating Agency “downgrading the U.S. Credit from A to A-, and publically threatening to stop buying U.S. Treasuries, of Great Concern, but their actions speak even louder than their words.

The Chinese have:

--entered into bilateral Currency Swap Agreements with the European Central Bank and the U.K. and several others.

--been importing record tonnage of Gold, even though China is the World’s largest producer.

--intensified diversifying away from the $US by buying Agricultural Properties and Producers and Real Estate generally, all over the World.

Michael Snyder of “The Economic Collapse Blog” sums it up:

“If China does decide to back the yuan with gold and no longer use the U.S. dollar in international trade, it will have devastating effects on the U.S. economy.  Demand for the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt would drop like a rock, and prices on the things that we buy every day would soar.  At that point you could forget about cheap gasoline or cheap Chinese imports.  Our entire way of life depends on the U.S. dollar being the primary reserve currency of the world and being able to import things very inexpensively.  If the rest of the world (led by China) starts to reject the U.S. dollar, it would result in a massive tsunami of currency coming back to our shores and a very painful adjustment in our standard of living.  Today, most U.S. currency is actually used outside of the United States.  If someday that changes and we are no longer able to export our inflation that is going to mean big trouble for us.”

“9 Signs That China Is Making A Move Against The U.S. Dollar,” Michael Snyder, theeconomiccollapseblog.com, 10/17/2013

Clearly, an Antidote and Opportunity is to either move one’s Assets outside of the $US and/or to hedge against its Fall.

A related Critical Problem is that U.S. Dollar- denominated debt is growing far faster, courtesy of the Obama Administration, than U.S. GDP and is thus Unsustainable.

As the Dollar Weakens not only will Price Inflation increasingly Visibly Rear its Ugly Head (the U.S. is already suffering from 9.17% CPI increase per year per Shadowstats.com but it is hidden by Bogus Statistics – Note 1) but Interest Rates must eventually rise to keep Investors interested in purchasing U.S. Paper, and to accommodate Inflation.

But substantially rising Interest Rates will Crash the Housing Market and Economy as a whole.

Indeed, rising Interest Rates already began several months ago in the U.S. – Witness the 10 year Note Yields Spike Up to nearly 3%. (Even so, the recent No-Taper decision reduced rates near term, but that also hurts the $US.)

Of course, the Prospect of Rising Interest Rates and Reality of Intensifying Monetary Inflation should have impelled Gold and Silver, the Ultimate Safe Havens/Assets to new heights in recent months.

But it did not, and all Studious and Savvy Investors know this is Mainly a Result of The Cartel’s (Note 2) Manipulating Precious Metal Prices down, as Engdahl notes.

In our view, this Precious Metal Downtrend is bound to end despite ongoing Cartel Manipulation attempts. But why and when??

A large part of the Answer lies in the increasing demand for Physical and Prospects for the $US and other Fiat Currencies.

The $US 75 basis point Crash on October 17, the Day after the Debt Ceiling was lifted, is a mid to long- term harbinger of the $US’ future.

Short-term, the $US basis USDX is still trading in the 79 to 80 range (but is down to just above Major Support at the top of the 78 to 79 range) as we write. This is the U.S. Government’s self-inflicted “punishment” for allowing the Obama Administration to successfully push for more Debt and More Spending. One short-term consequence is that the $US is down yet another 50 basis points from its October 17 close, as we write.

Going forward, we forecast that The Debt Ceiling will be raised again in February, 2014, as the Political will does not now exist in the US to cut spending. At that time, the $US will likely make another run down to threaten closing below 78. If such a close is confirmed, that would signal the beginning of the Major $US Crash which we earlier forecast for 2014.

If (when) such a Crash appears close it will have been prudent to have already exited the $US and have already acquired physical Gold and Silver.

Until then, expect the $US to trade in the 78-81 range and the Euro to bounce correspondingly in the mid 1.30s.

Re Treasuries, we fully expect the ‘No- Tapering’ policy to continue ad infinitum, as its cessation would cause a crash. Indeed, we expect monthly QE to be increased beginning some time in 2014. That will be another spur to launch Gold to the Upside.

And in the highly unlikely event The Fed does start to taper in 2014 it will surely have to reverse course quickly to liquefy again as the Markets are floating on Fed-provided liquidity.

In sum, Short-term, U.S. Treasuries are “Hot”, that is they should remain strong enough to keep the 10 year yield below 3% (and, short term, push the yield into the 2.3 to 2.6% range), until the $US Crash seriously begins.

Mid and Long-term, U.S. Treasuries are quite vulnerable (due to ongoing QE) and will likely crash.

But, once again, a Superb Safe Haven with Profit Potential can be found in Gold and Silver.

As earlier noted, Cartel Price Suppression attacks have thus far succeeded in keeping Gold trading in the $1280 to $1350 range, and Silver in the $21 to $23 range.

As trader Dan Norcini Notes, Gold has not shown the capacity to break out to the upside out of its trading range yet, though it is increasingly threatening to do so.

However, the intensifying demand for Physical (which we and other independent commentators have documented on various occasions) makes it ever more difficult for The Cartel to sustain any Takedown. (Indian ex-duty Premiums for Physical have shot above $145 per ounce recently!)

But as year-end approaches the probability of that Great Precious Metal Launch up beginning and being sustained, increases dramatically. Indeed, Gold and Silver could break out and up out of their Trading Range at any time.

As the aforementioned Bubbles Burst, Gold and Silver will be Investors’ Salvation.

Regarding Equities, Fundamentally, because it is highly unlikely the Fed will begin to Taper in October or December. The Hot Fiat Money (indirectly created as explained last week) will continue to flow and continue to support Equities Prices.

And the Debt Ceiling Can Kick has given the Markets a temporary respite from uncertainty, as well as providing continuing liquidity via lower debt servicing costs via QE.

Though the underlying economy is not recovering, Corporate Earnings are, in the Aggregate, moderately positive and QE will likely keep their stock prices pumped up for a few or very few months more. Indeed fully 60% of American Corporation’s operating Earnings since 2009 result from QE-created lowered debt service.

The Disturbing Reality for the Mid and Long Term is that Corporate Revenues are not increasing, which is understandable because the financially challenged Middle Class can not increase spending, and will likely not be able to going forward.

Therefore, we have forecast that beginning sometime in 2014 (stay tuned), Equities will no longer be “Hot” and will likely Crash.

Once again, Physical Gold and Silver will spell Salvation.

Best regards,

Deepcaster October 25, 2013

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported September 17, 2013
1.52%     /     9.17%

U.S. Unemployment reported October 22, 2013
7.2%     /     23.3%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported September 26, 2013
1.62%        /     -1.75%

U.S. M3 reported October 24, 2013 (Month of September, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     4.12% (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.392 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


“Bank deposits are not safe which used to be safe. Money in Treasury bills is not 100 percent safe and there is inflation in the system and you would hardly get any interest.

“Bonds are not very safe anymore because eventually interest rates will go up Equities in the U.S. are relatively expensive by any valuation matrix you may use.

(The federal government is) “essentially wasting money left, right and center: Republicans on the military and the Democrats on buying votes with transfer payments and entitlements. The best you can hope for is that you have diversified your portfolio of different assets and they don’t all collapse at the same time.”

“Marc Faber: Pray All Asset Classes Don’t Collapse at the Same Time,”
John Morgan, moneynews.com, 10/15/2013
Dr. Marc Faber is the author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report

The “Behavior” of the Price of Gold, the Ultimate Safe Haven, might seem strange lately as it had not risen despite the lead up to the recent U.S. Debt Ceiling and Budget Crises. Apparently stranger still, after the Debt Ceiling Crisis was apparently (but see below) resolved, the Gold Price shot up. Understanding why this Paper Price performance is not strange is the key to understanding the prospective performance of many markets.

Indeed, understanding the likely course and timing of these developments – a primary Focus of Deepcaster’s Alerts – is essential to Profit and Protection in the next few weeks and very few months.

“The Double Jolt” of two anticipated Pro-Inflationary Developments – a “No Tapering Now” Decision by The Fed and a Debt Ceiling Raise should have been the Catalyst to launch the Gold Price, and especially the Silver Price, up, we remarked a few days ago.

But we noted “The Cartel (Note 1) will be Working Hard to Suppress (Precious Metals) Prices and Convince Investors that the Equities launch up demonstrates Economic health, and thus Gold and Silver are not needed as Safe Havens.” Remember that a Continuation of The Cartel’s Power and Wealth-generation Capacity depends on their being able to Continue suppressing Precious Metal prices.

And so The Cartel did indeed pull out all the stops to take down Gold last Friday, October 11, and succeeded. But then, the day after the apparent Crisis Resolution, The Gold Price shot up again. What gives?

First, lest any Reader have any doubt that The Cartel suppresses prices we Invite you to read the following most interesting and cogent reports courtesy of JBGJ.

“An interesting perspective on Friday’s (October 11 – Ed.) raid is Seeking Alpha’s Weekly COMEX Gold Inventories: Huge Friday Sell Order Equivalent To 70% Of Gold Registered For Delivery

“Friday's (10/11/13) huge drop in gold was essentially due to one tremendously large market sell order, which was an attempt to sell 5,000 gold futures (500,000 gold ounces or about $650 million dollars) at market price and was so large it tripped the stop logic for the exchange and caused gold to stop trading for about ten seconds. We aren't going to get into the motives behind this trade other than saying no seller trying to get a fair price for their gold would sell in such a way, so it looks to be an attempt to ignite negative momentum - which it didn't seem to do.

“But what we want to point investor attention to is that the size of this trade compared to the size of COMEX gold registered inventories, was tremendous. In fact, it represents almost 70% of gold registered for delivery and would be almost impossible to actually fill if entities asked for delivery.

“Oh! and investors shouldn't forget that this was all done in less than one minute - essentially all of the COMEX gold eligible for delivery was sold by one trader in less than one minute. If that doesn't raise an investor's eyebrows, then they really don't understand or are the ones making that sell order.”

“India starving for gold- China too? Gartman starts selling”,
John Brimelow, JBGJ, LLC, 10/14/2013

“The blatancy of the gold manipulation has escalated to what could only be described as taunting the CFTC to do anything about it. Today takes the cake (and that says a LOT considering how many cakes the cartel have taken) for in-your-face manipulation. After Goldman screams "sell", and on a Friday that statistically already has 7 standard deviation selling odds going in we watch this:

“8:42 AM: 367 Dec. contracts traded

“8:43 AM: 7,993 Dec. contracts traded

“8:44 AM: 4,860 Dec. contracts traded

“8:45 AM: 4,050 Dec. contracts traded

“While all was sublime elsewhere, and the dollar comatose, 16,903 December contracts were sold in just 3 minutes. This takedown amounted to over 2 MILLION ounces, or 62 TONS. You have to let that soak in for a few seconds to grasp the audacity. Somebody just dumped over 20 tons a minute, or one ton every 3 SECONDS.”

“What is the Objective?,” John Brimelow
JBGJ, LLC , 10/13/2013

It is unfortunately all too clear that The Cartel still has the Power to suppress Precious Metals prices. And the private for-profit Fed-led Cartel has both Profit and Strategic Motivations. Indeed, the title of a recent article has it nailed – “Gold Market Sunk to Keep Bond Market Afloat.” Consider these excerpts

“Historically, government shut downs have been associated with negative financial news….

“Negative financial news has historically been a time when gold and silver prices rise due to uncertainty. Gold and silver have long been safe havens against financial calamity including falling currency values, falling bond prices and even rising interest rates, as gold and silver store wealth against borrowing costs….

“The current government shutdown comes during a time period when American debt has never been higher. The Obama administration beginning in 2008 has added more debt to the Federal balance sheet than all other Presidents, from George Washington to George H. W. Bush combined, a staggering $4.2 Trillion dollars.

“The issue of debt is not about total dollar amount, but about interest payments which must either be taxed in existence or borrowed into existence….

“The terms of the Federal Reserve Act (1913) … specified interest payments were to be made only in gold and after the gold was gone, the United States declared bankruptcy. Bankruptcy was declared on the carefully chosen date of March 9, 1933. (interesting numerology 3-9-33 or 333-333 ==666! ) After 1933, all property and all potential income of all persons born thereafter was hypothecated to the non Federal no Reserve private banking cartel but this another story.

“Interest payments are the primary benefit of banker pretended debt script, except, when the game’s gone too long. In the end, it’s interest payments which finally cause the destruction of debt script, as interest rates rise exponentially until no amount of script can satisfy the demands for more interest.

“A primary concern of banker debt script managers is interest rates; keeping rates as low as possible is of the highest priority, especially when total debt ‘crosses the Rubicon’ where interest payments on debt already created, significantly affect future interest payments as previous payments are borrowed into existence. The United States Federal Reserve has crossed the Rubicon and rising interest rates will signal the coming end of the FRN private debt based script.

“Over the past several years, it has been noted that gold and silver and platinum and palladium have exhibited price behaviors consistent with being managed prices. Prices of gold and silver, especially, have been manipulated, both to keep the purchasing power of the dollar from falling quickly and to keep prices of US bond products high, resulting in unnaturally low and stable interest rates….

“Rising Interest rates are a sign banker pretend debt script exists in far greater quantities than products to purchase in a market. …

“However, when a banker pretends debt script is being borrowed into existence to meet the demands of pure spending, with no connection to products in the market, bankers and co-conspirators must manipulate interest rates lower to prevent catastrophic rises in interest payments. …

“Gold and silver prices are being deliberately and criminally destroyed by bankers hoping to keep the financial system alive a little longer as the wealth of the economy is transferred to bankers in the form of interest payments….

“Lowering prices of gold and silver is equivalent to boosting the value of the dollar and simultaneously strengthening face value of government debt. … Destroying the price of gold and silver to maintain purchasing power of the dollar moves money from investments in gold and silver to government debt which rises in value relative to gold and silver.

“…Metal prices were frantically slammed to slow the rise in interest rates on approximately June 17, 2013.

“Slamming the price of gold helped slowed the rate of increase in the 10 year yield temporarily, preventing an interest rate crisis. Note again, after October 1st, interest rates stopped falling and started climbing, and, again, a gold smack down in prices was engineered beginning in the second week.

“The price of gold and silver are being pushed lower at great cost. In order to engineer the sell down, naked short selling and flash trading are being used, both of which are causing the depletion of physical gold and silver, …

“In the very near future, the physical shortage of gold and silver will lead to default in the commodities market exchanges (comex and other metals exchanges) creating a crisis in metals delivery and, for a short time, making gold and silver unavailable at any price.

“At the same time when gold and silver prices rise exponentially and the metals exchanges default, bond prices will fall like a rock triggering financial system destroying interests rates.

“The only protection bond holders and dollar holders have is to sell both before interest rates begin to rise. …

“Buying gold and, preferably, silver and other safe assets is the only hope to save your wealth….”

“Gold Market Sunk to Keep Bond Market Afloat,”
Jack Mullen, goldseek.com, 10/14/2013

In addition, it is most important to note that it is becoming ever more difficult for The Cartelto sustain Takedowns, as the October 17, Gold Price launch up again demonstrates.

Recall that on the Monday (10/14) after the Friday 10/11 Takedown, Gold popped right back up again, also.

And the intensifying demand for Physical (which we have documented on various occasions) makes it ever more difficult for them to sustain any Takedown. Clearly Timing is Critical, which is why Deepcaster’s Alerts give particular attention to Timing Signals.

But as the weeks, and days, pass, the likelihood of a Sustainable Great Precious Metals Launch up beginning soon, increases, mainly because of increasing demand for physical.

For example, increasing shortages of Physical are reflected in India’s “de facto ban on Gold Imports” resulting in “premiums above $100 per ounce” (JBGJ).

Jim Rickards has the Most Important Timing Signal (and there are several) Nailed

“James Rickards:  Central bank manipulation of gold markets can and will last until physical shortages become so acute that banks and exchanges can no longer deliver on futures and forward contacts when requested by customers. At that point, contracts will be terminated and exchanges will order that trading be conducted "for liquidation only" which means that futures customers can close out or rollover contacts, but they cannot receive physical delivery of gold.”

“Interview of James Rickards About Central Bank Manipulation of Gold and Silver Markets,”
goldbroker. Com, 10/15/2013  
James G. Rickards is an American lawyer, economist, and investment banker with 35 years of experience working in capital markets on Wall Street.

Increasing Upward Pressure on Precious Metals Prices will continue because fundamentally, it is highly unlikely the Fed will begin to Taper in October or December. The Hot Fiat Printed Money (indirectly created via QE as explained below) must continue to flow in order to support Equities Prices.

The Money “Printing” via QE to which we refer is Indirect, but Real nonetheless. QE works by The Fed’s swapping Treasury Securities on Commercial Banks balance sheets for extra reserves, thus lowering borrowing costs. QE thus artificially boosts corporate earnings, thus allowing more spending – a de facto Money “printing” nonetheless. Indeed, fully 60% of American corporations’ Operating Earnings since 2009 result from lowered borrowing costs according to a study by S. Pomboy presented at the recent Big Picture Conference.

Though the underlying economy is not recovering, Corporate Earnings are, in the Aggregate, moderately positive and so long as QE keeps flowing that will keep their stock prices pumped up for a few weeks or a very few months more.

Thus it is not surprising that, Technically, we are “due” one more massive “Blow Off Top” Equities Rally. Among the Technicals supporting this view we note the cumulative NYSE Advance/Decline Line has formed an Ascending Bullish Triangle which portends “Rally” for a while more.

And Interventionally. The Cartel and other Powers-that-be have everything to gain by supporting another Rally via QE. Withdraw QE and interest rates would spike up dramatically, crashing the Markets.

Of course, that Rally and Ongoing QE will set the scene for Hyperinflation and a $US and Equities Crash some week soon. Thus Deepcaster pay particular attention to Timing in forecasting anticipated Mega-Moves resulting from this Scenario.

Regarding the prospects for Gold and Silver Prices, consider Jim Rickards further comments

FDR: Do you anticipate an overnight ending of the manipulation or a progressive process?

“JR: Both. The process will proceed slowly at first, then gain momentum, then reach a panic buying stage where the termination of deliveries under futures and forward contacts will be announced very suddenly. At that point, physical gold will be scarce and interested parties will not be able to acquire it in small quantities at any price. 

“FDR: Is the gold/silver paper spot price still relevant to value physical gold and silver?

“JR: It is relevant in the sense that it is still possible to acquire gold and silver at prices significantly below the implied non-deflationary price under a gold standard. This is a type of arbitrage that will be available until the world returns to a gold standard or until countries use executive orders to abolish gold trading. 

“FDR: What direct consequences would a free gold/silver market have on people worldwide -- not investors, people in general?

“JR: We have a free gold/silver market today. Anyone can buy or sell as much gold or silver as they like at market prices and exchange it freely with willing counterparties. To the extent that central banks act to depress the price of gold or silver, this acts like a gift to those interested in purchasing it at an artificially low price. If the world returned to a gold standard, the price of gold would be boring and the trading uninteresting because it would be fixed in terms of a currency and interchangeable with the currency.” (emphasis added)

Ibid.

In sum, regarding Various Markets Performance in the next few weeks and very few months, consider John Williams Excellent Analysis at Shadowstats.com

“Chances of the current federal government addressing the long-term sovereign-solvency issues of the United States are nonexistent, reflecting the agreement reached October 16th, to re-open the federal government into early-2014.  In that negotiation process, the debt-ceiling leverage, which had been in place as an aid to those pushing for meaningful fiscal reform, also was suspended through February 7, 2014, but it will be reinstated thereafter.  Details can be found in Section 1002 (a) “Default Protection Act of 2013,” on page 9 of H. R. 2775.  A copy of the Act can be downloaded from this site: http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c113:H.R.2775: .

The Devil Is in the Details.  While the debt ceiling remains in play, going forward, the process for handling it through February 7th has been changed.  Instead of the Congress having to approve an increase in the debt ceiling, where withholding such approval had been used as negotiation leverage, for the present, the President simply announces that he is waiving the debt ceiling.  If Congress objects, it has to pass legislation to reject the President’s waiver.  The President can veto that legislation, where a veto override would require a two-thirds majority of both the House and the Senate.  Neither the passage of an override of the waiver in both Houses, nor an override of a veto of such enacted legislation, is possible in the current political environment. 

“This process expires on February 7th, when a new debt ceiling will be put in place.  The new concept introduced for getting around the debt ceiling, however, as noted by one subscriber, sets an extraordinarily dangerous precedent as to gutting the political leverage provided at present to those who seriously are looking to address the government’s extreme fiscal imbalances.

“Separately, at such time as a new debt ceiling would constrain Treasury borrowings in February, consider that the Treasury, has just regained the re-funding needed to replenish its cushion to operate with extraordinary measures for a period of several months.

Can Kicking.  October 16th saw what has become almost a ceremonial kicking of the can down the road.  There is no reason for the global financial markets to believe that the latest actions will be any less detrimental to U.S. financial stability or any less without meaning than the multiple similar experiences of recent years.  This time, though, there is a good chance that the “What, Me Worry?” crowd in Washington finally has kicked the can off a cliff [no offense intended here for Alfred E. Neuman].  

Market Reactions.   As we go to press early-afternoon (October 17th) New York time, initial reaction has been for dollar selling and gold buying.  Despite whatever games the President’s Working Group on the Markets is playing, and beyond initial market volatilities, those general trends should accelerate, as the rest of the world weighs in on the ever-expanding U.S. fiscal debacle and on the intensifying dysfunctional nature of the United States government.  Having run out of patience, global markets increasingly fear deteriorating U.S. sovereign solvency prospects and rapidly increasing odds of heavy U.S. dollar debasement.”

“Fiscal Crisis—Dollar Debasement,” Commentary 565,
John Williams, Shadowstats.com, 10/18/2013

Williams’ Analysis is not just “whistling Dixie” but spot-on. The $US 75 basis point Crash (as we write) on October 17, the Day after the Debt Ceiling was obliterated is a Harbinger. We can expect increasing U.S. Debt and continuing QE going forward.

But severe consequences are impending. The Credit Rating Agency Dagong of the USA’s most powerful Creditor, China, recently downgraded the USA’s Debt Rating from A to A-. And China continues to enter into bilateral currency swap deals with other countries (thus bypassing the $US and further jeopardizing its status as the World’s Reserve Currency), the most recent being with the European Central Bank!! Stay closely tuned for Protection and Profit.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
October 18, 2013

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


Preparing for The Big One – Part I

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

”Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has been tap dancing on a land mine since 2008.  He has avoided detonating an intensified banking-system crisis, so far, but the cost has been that of locking the Fed into near-perpetual quantitative easing and monetization of U.S. Treasury debt, with horrendous implications for future domestic inflation and U.S. dollar debasement…. the Fed has locked itself into quantitative easing for some time to come, irrespective of any jawboning to the contrary….

“The longer-term U.S. sovereign solvency issues are the bane of the U.S. dollar and the global financial markets.  Unless these problems can be brought under credible control, those same global markets—soon and massively—will revolt against the U.S. dollar.”  

“NO MORE TAP DANCING ON A LAND MINE; THE ADMINISTRATION PULLS OUT A COUPLE OF HAMMERS,” John Williams, Shadowstats.com, 10/10/2013

Indeed, global markets are already revolting against the $US. The End Game re. the $US is THE BIG ONE for which we aim to help Investors prepare.

The really BIG ONE announced October 10, 2013 was not the Republican Proposal to lift The Debt Ceiling for six weeks, though that was an important constructive step to attempt to resolve the Administration’s partial Government Shutdown.

THE BIG ONE was the European Central Bank’s agreement with the People’s Bank of China to establish bilateral Euro-Yuan Currency Swap arrangements, thus freezing the U.S. Dollar out of yet another Bilateral Sovereign Currency Swap Deal.

This will, sooner rather than later, have catastrophic impact on the International Financial System as John Williams points out.

“Beginning to play with hammers around a land mine, the President recently suggested that the financial markets should be concerned about the shutdown/debt-ceiling crisis.  Related comments from the Treasury Secretary suggest looming economic and financial Armageddon, in the event of a default on U.S. Treasury securities.  The push appears to be to frighten the markets enough, so as to pressure a resolution on the government shutdown and debt-ceiling issues, without those controlling the government having to address federal fiscal-policy issues, meaningfully. …

Instead, the increasingly clear message to the global markets is that the Administration will not take any meaningful action to address the long-term solvency issues of the United States. (emphasis added)

“Sovereign states that issue debt in the same currency they print rarely default, ….  Instead, they simply print the money needed to cover financial obligations that could not be covered otherwise with tax revenues, asset confiscations, etc.  The effect usually is full debasement of the currency, or hyperinflation.  Creditors get paid off, but with what has become a worthless currency.

“Indeed, ahead is currency debasement, eventually complete debasement of the U.S. dollar.  As the global markets increasingly absorb that reality, selling of the dollar against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners should become intense, with pressure for removal of the dollar as the global reserve currency becoming unstoppable.  Oil and other dollar-denominated commodity prices would rise sharply in dollar terms, fueling domestic U.S. inflation, despite a moribund economy.  In like manner, the dollar prices of precious metals—particularly gold and silver—would move on to ever-increasing historic highs, despite any efforts by central banks and related plunge-protection teams to contain those prices with jawboning and covert or overt physical intervention, in the markets.”

(Ibid.)

Before considering how Investors can Profit and Protect from this Impending Crisis, it is essential to consider why Fed QE/Stimulus policy (likely to continue under Chairman Yellen) not only will not cure the Economy’s ills but will only worsen Economic Prospects for the Middle Class and Working Poor around the World. It is this Majority to whom Fed Policy should (ethically and for the sake of a Healthy Economy) be directed, but it is not. It is their capacity to Work and Spend which is a Necessary Condition for Economic Health.

Consider the Wise Analysis of former Morgan Stanley Chairman, Stephen Roach

“…The Federal Reserve continues to cling to a destabilizing and ineffective strategy. By maintaining its policy of quantitative easing (QE) – which entails monthly purchases of long-term assets worth $85 billion – the Fed is courting an increasingly treacherous endgame at home and abroad ….

“But there is an even more insidious problem brewing on the home front. With its benchmark lending rate at the zero-bound, the Fed has embraced a fundamentally different approach in attempting to guide the US economy. It has shifted its focus from the price of credit to influencing the credit cycle’s quantity dimension through the liquidity injections that quantitative easing requires. In doing so, the Fed is relying on the “wealth effect” – brought about largely by increasing equity and home prices – as its principal transmission mechanism for stabilization policy.

“There are serious problems with this approach. First, wealth effects are statistically small; most studies show that only about 3-5 cents of every dollar of asset appreciation eventually feeds through to higher personal consumption. As a result, outsize gains in asset markets – and the related risks of new bubbles – are needed to make a meaningful difference ….

“Second, wealth effects are maximized when debt service is minimized – that is, when interest expenses do not swallow the capital gains of asset appreciation. That provides the rationale for the Fed’s zero-interest-rate policy – but at the obvious cost of discriminating against savers, who lose any semblance of interest income.

“Third, and most important, wealth effects are for the wealthy. …

Fully 90.6% of US families in the highest decile of the income distribution owned stocks – double the 45% ownership share of the other 90% ....

“The wealthiest 10% of the US income distribution benefit the most from the Fed’s liquidity injections into risky asset markets. And yet, despite the significant increases in asset values traceable to QE over the past several years – residential property as well as financial assets – there has been little to show for it in terms of a wealth-generated recovery in the US economy. …

“This underscores yet another of QE’s inherent contradictions: its transmission effects are narrow, while the problems it is supposed to address are broad. Wealth effects that benefit a small but extremely affluent slice of the US population have done little to provide meaningful relief for most American families, who remain squeezed by lingering balance-sheet problems, weak labor markets, and anemic income growth. …

“Lost in the angst over inequality is the critical role that central banks have played in exacerbating the problem. Yes, asset markets were initially ecstatic over the Fed’s decision this month not to scale back QE. The thrill, however, was lost on Main Street.

“As I wrote:

“Such stealth transfer of wealth enabled and facilitated by central bank policies are not only economically unsustainable, they are reprehensively immoral.

“Occupy QE,” Stephen Roach, Project-Syndicate.org, 09/25/2013

Chairman Roach’s Analysis underscores the point John Williams, Deepcaster and other independent commentators have been making for months. Fed Policy is aimed at helping a select cohort of the Wealthy, the Mega Banks and Wealthy Individuals, and all The Fed “communications policy” Claptrap that their QE is designed to help the Economy is just Political Cover for their aforementioned Real Aim.

The Key Point for Investors is that the Flight from the $US is already occurring (latest evidence, The ECB – PBOC currency swap Agreement).

This flight has not been widely factored in to the Markets YET but a Harbinger has appeared in the form of the $US’s recently flirting with moving under 80 basis USDX.

Since a Conclusive Close under 78 would definitely Signal the $US rout had begun in earnest, Deepcaster keenly observes and regularly reports to Subscribers on prospective Triggers for such a Move thus providing Various Opportunities to Profit and Protect.

Generally, U.S. Dollar denominated assets are most vulnerable (and non-US$ denominated Assets which we identify are Not).

And Real (as opposed to Financial) Assets in Relatively Inelastic Demand are the least vulnerable in the mid and long term.

Of several such Real Assets which we periodically identify, Gold and Silver have the Most Upside Potential for Profit and Protection.

But these Precious Metals are also subject to Price Suppression by The Cartel (Note 1) which fears them because they are Real Money as opposed to their Fiat Paper Currencies and Treasury Securities.

But – a Word to the Wise Investor – Consider that the World’s largest Gold Producer, China, is also the largest Gold Importer.

And another larger Gold Producer, Russia, imported 12.7 tonnes of Gold in its most recently Reported Month.

And China and Russia are importing Physical Metal and not mainly relying on future delivery on some paper promise from a Gold ETF.

Indeed

“…(The) Gold Price Could Double Overnight in U.S. Dollar Crisis

(Rickards) “envisages a series of ‘black swan’ events that trigger a loss of confidence in the US dollar precipitating a rush to get out of the greenback.”

“Gold Price Could Double Overnight in U.S. Dollar Crisis,” Jim Rickards, etfdailynews.com, 10/10/2013

Deepcaster shall continue to watch and report on Harbingers and signals.

Best regards,

Deepcaster October 11, 2013

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


Profit from a Dangerously Fat Left Tail

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: Untagged 

Deepcaster

“Both stock and blond valuations today are actually explicitly a matter of government policy.”

Brett Arends, Wall Street Journal, 09/23/2013

“This looks to me like 2007 all over again, but even worse. All the previous imbalances are still there. Total public and private debt levels are 30% higher as a share of GDP in the advanced economies than they were then, and we have added a whole new problem with bubbles in emerging markets.”

William White, former BIS chief economist, 09/20/2013


“’Dangerously Fat Left Tail Risk’: the probability that an Investment will incur losses more than three Standard Deviations from the Mean Loss Probability.”


One Recent Most Important Development is Quite Ominous indeed. This Development has created an increasingly Dangerous Fat Left Tail.

Specifically, that Ominous Development indicates that the Probabilities of another Financial Crisis, with concomitant Negative Consequences, are Increasing.

But although that Crisis would greatly increase the Danger to Bank Deposits, Pensions and Investments (see Deepcaster’s recent article – “Our Deposits, Pension Funds, etc. Vulnerable to Immediate Looting ??!! – Antidotes” ) it also creates Opportunities. As the Chinese proverb says: Crisis = Opportunity or in this Case Multiple Opportunities for Wealth Protection and Profit, Opportunities which have generated two recent Deepcaster Buy Recommendations.

The Ominous Development to which we refer is The Fed’s No-Tapering Decision.

Consider that The Fed chose not to taper its $85 Billion Monthly Bond Purchases by even a little bit, not even a $5 Billion or $10 Billion Reduction!!

First and Foremost, this means that The Fed knows what we and other independent commentators have been claiming, and documenting, for many months – that the economy is not recovering (indeed there has been virtually zero Wage Growth in the U.S. in the last five years, despite Trillions in Fed Stimulus) and…

Furthermore, that the Economy and Markets are so fragile that even a small Taper might cause another Financial Crisis. Indeed, The Fed’s No-Taper Decision likely signals that such a Crisis is Impending.

Worse yet, it signals that The Fed (and other Key Central Banks) is trapped into continuing to Print Money -- i.e. QE to Infinity – as we and other Independent Commentators have been correctly forecasting for Months.

And the Ongoing Central Bank QE to Infinity is already leading to Threshold Hyperinflation (9.17% in the USA per shadowstats.com), if one looks at the Real Numbers (Note 1) and not the Bogus Official Ones.

Remember that one Primary Function of Bogus Official Numbers, whether in the U.S., China or elsewhere, is to cover up Politically Damaging Economic Realities, such as the fact that ongoing QE (Money Printing) by Major Central Banks is already Creating Price Inflation despite an increasingly Sluggish Economy. In other words, to cover the Reality that we are increasingly in a Period of Stagflation.

Indeed with Increasing Inflation we are now in a period of StagFLATION.

But this Intensifying StagFLATION creates several Opportunities for both Profit and Wealth Protection.

In order to surmount Impending Crises, we offer three Necessary, but not necessarily sufficient, Essential Criteria which must be met in order to Profit and Protect in the next few Months.

  1. The Prospective Investment must be one which Profits and Protects from ongoing Monetary and therefore, Price Inflation (when one considers The Real Numbers and not the Bogus Official Ones) and

  2. The Prospective Investment must be one for which there is a Real, and Relatively Inelastic (regardless of Economic Conditions) Demand.
  3. Typically, such investments involve Real Assets such as Basic Foodstuffs and Energy, and Productive (as in Agricultural land) Real Estate, but not always.

    Typically, such investments are not to be found e.g. in The Tech Sector. Indeed, we would argue that businesses such as Facebook are riding for a Fall, for many of the Same Reasons the Internet Bubble Burst in 2002.

    For example, people do not have to use Facebook, there are Privacy Concerns (its business model relies on making personal information available to advertisers), there are low Barriers to entry, and there are Alternative Similar (and better in our opinion) Social Media businesses. Thus Facebook fits in what we would call the “Fad Business” Category, subject to a Big Fall, like Many in the Tech Category. Consider the Fate of former Tech Market Leaders like Blackberry and Nokia for example.

    Of course, there are a Few Tech businesses which have Sustainable Business Models, one of which is Google. People, rich or poor, in Good times and Bad, need Information and Goods and Services, and Google delivers all with a few clicks.

  4. A significant Portion of Assets should be held outside of the Banking and Financial System. See our latest Article – “Our Deposits, Pension Funds, etc. Vulnerable to Immediate Looting??!! – Antidotes” – at www.deepcaster.com and our recent Alerts.

And consider a Mega-Reality regarding the USA, the issues of the World’s Reserve Currency.

“…the nation’s debt is compounding into a monster that defies financial description.”

Richard Russell, 9/20/2013

Thus, the Dangerously Fat Left Tail Risk that arises (and given the USA’s unsolved Serious Structural Problems, especially since The Fed will have to continue QE or restart it even IF there eventually is modest tapering), is that ongoing Fiat Money Creation will eventually bring about the Major degradation of the U.S. Dollar, vis a vis the Yuan, Major Commodities Currencies (e.g. OZ$, Canuck Buck) and Inflation Assets such as Key Commodities in relatively Inelastic demand. (Crude Oil)

In sum, we expect The Force of Hyperinflation to help impel serious $US Dumping to begin sooner rather than later (see our Forecasts for probable Timing).

As well, longer-term, long dated U.S. Treasuries are arguably the Greatest Bubble in Economic History, and are doomed to Burst if for no other reason that the Fed has become by far the Major, and nearly only, purchaser, and with ever-more printed Fiat money yet.

This Hot Fiat Money Game cannot in principle, continue indefinitely, which is why our analysis has targeted a 10 yr. U.S. Treasury Note interest rate level which would likely signal the Bubble Burst is launching.

So far as Profit and Protection from much Dangerous Fat Tail Risk is concerned, consider Gold and Silver.

Continuing diminished tensions over Syria and the Mideast, Apparent Eurozone Recovery and Stability supported by the German reelection of Angela Merkel, and Cartel (see Notes) Price Capping all have, and are, contributing to the apparent diminishment of the Rationale for owning Gold and Silver as Safe Havens, short term and thus to a reduction in their Paper Price..

However, though Indian tariffs continue to retard legal imports, demand for Physical from India and China especially is rising, making the Price Prospects, mid to long term, Bright Indeed.

But, above all, the Price Prospects are bright because of the ongoing Fiat Money Printing By Key Central Banks around the World.

It will however likely take a Catalyst to get Gold and Silver moving decisively into an Uptrend.

But there are plenty of Potential Catalysts out there – Another Fed No Tapering Decision, in October (likely) an eruption of an intensified Mideast Crisis, a widely publicized move up in Inflation. One or more of these is sure to come, and we think one of these is likely in the next few weeks according to our timing Projections.

So last week’s No-Tapering Launch up of Gold and Silver was the first Harbinger of The Coming Bull Trend and another (likely) No-Tapering Decision by The Fed in October would strongly impel these Precious Metals higher.

In sum, Buy Physical Now while it is cheap.

It is important to reiterate that while the U.S. Equities Markets continue to be bullish, they continue to be levitating almost solely on Fed provided QE and the prospect of its Continuation – witness the Bullish Action after the Fed’s No Tapering Decision.

And if the USA’s Budget Problems are resolved (not solved) by raising the Debt Ceiling (i.e. printing more money) as is probable, Equities and the Precious Metals should launch up again (absent Major Negative Geopolitical Events) eventually to hit their all-time highs.

The only difference will likely be that Equities will eventually crash (because the artificial levitation cannot last for much longer), while the Precious Metals will likely continue to dramatically increase in value. The Main Catalysts will probably be a major sell-off of both U.S. Treasury Bonds and the U.S. Dollar.

In sum, though The Primary Trend is currently still somewhat Bullish (but with the Bull Trend weakening), Equities Markets are fundamentally very fragile. The S&P dropped 3% in August and has recently broken below, but is now back above, its 50 day MA. And, though the Dow is still above its 200 day MA, we still have several “live” Hindenburg Omen Observations.

Given the aforementioned, now is an excellent time to acquire Assets which should perform well as Dangerously Fat Left Tail Risks are Realized.

 

Best regards,

Deepcaster
September 26, 2013


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