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Climacterics Now

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“We view prospective near-term and multi-year returns as strongly unfavorable, and prospective market risk as unusually elevated.”

John Hussman, January 2014

Choppy, decidedly Unbullish Equities Market Action thus far in 2014 is one Major Clue the Climacterics we earlier forecast have arrived in Key Markets. They may take a few days to a few weeks to fully develop, but they have arrived.

For example, on Wednesday, January 8, 2014 we forecast Major Reversals in Key sectors. We identified some of the Signals that such Reversals were impending.

Sure enough, two days later those Key Sectors gave us a Foretaste of those moves — a Dramatic Preview of what is coming

Developments since January 8 verified the Reality of what we have been claiming for weeks, a Market Moving Truth denied publically by major governments and much of the Main Stream Media – the fact that the Economy is not recovering.

Indeed, Deepcaster and a few other Independent Analysts have been claiming for months that the Economy is not recovering. (See Note 1)

And Friday, January 10’s shockingly-below-estimates Employment numbers confirmed our claims. Real Retail Sales and Real Weekly Earnings also declined in December.

Predictably, the lousy numbers caused the US$ to swoon on Friday and bonds to strengthen and Gold and Silver to pop up.

Even more significant, when Equities crashed on Monday (01/13), the $US also Fell. This confirms the fact that the $US is decreasingly seen as a Risk Aversion Haven as it would have been in past years. Not a Good Harbinger for the $US going Forward.

Importantly, last Friday’s and the subsequent Monday’s Equities moves and the resulting Moves in other Markets foreshadow Major moves to come in the next very few months, except that when the $US dumping becomes quite severe, US Treasury Bond Strength will weaken dramatically as Sovereign and Major Investors exit U.S. Treasury paper en masse.

However, the $US strengthened again (basis USDX) after the January 10 and 13 Equities Takedown Indeed, Short-term the structural weakness of the Euro and unresolved Eurozone problems and the ostensible Recovery of the US Economy should keep the $US above 78 basis USDX for a while longer, but not for the long term.

Going forward, consider that in order to keep long term interest rates low the Fed will have to continue Bond Buying via QE (i.e., Stop tapering), and eventually increase, QE. Notice how a three-% yield on the ten-year is the “line in the sand” for the Bond Market. Indeed, But in our most recent Alert we noted a stunning repeated correlative Market Move when the US 10Yr Note Yield is threatening to go over 3% on the 10 Year – The Correlated Move provides A Superb Profit Opportunity for sure, going forward.

Longer term, as QE continues, investors will need a refuge from QE-generated Monetary Price Inflation and a Profit and Wealth Preservation Opportunity as well, and thus will have to flee to Tangible Assets.

No surprise then that the CRB Commodity Index was up on the lousy U.S. Economic News in a counterintuitive Move. Commodities Price Strength is in the cards at least until Equities top later this year.

Later, as Equities Crash, Commodities used for building (e.g., Dr. Copper) will swoon too.

However, given World Population Growth of 80 million a year. Food Commodities, as well as Gold & Silver, will be the most profitable and Wealth Protective places to be in the next few years.

In that connection, we note that despite ongoing Cartel (Note 2) Gold Price Capping Attempts, we now have a confirmed Uptrend for Gold stocks. The Market Vectors Gold Miners Fund (CGDX) recently confirmed its break above its 50 DMA! What a welcome development after over two years of declines.

But short term the picture is still mixed for the Gold Market and thus the Great Launch up may be delayed a bit more, as this JBGJ excerpt below demonstrates.

In other words, The Cartel’s Price Capping Attempts continue with some success. But The Cartel’s desperation is reflected in these attempts. Note the BOLD portion of JBGJ

“Indian ex-duty premiums AM $125.41, PM N/A with world gold at $1,241 and $1,236.85. Not one of the 5 importing cities Reuters monitors altered their prices for the PM reading despite material moves in world gold and the rupee, a situation JBGJ has never seen before. Based on the AM reading local gold was $264.84 or 21.34% above world gold (Wednesday 21.59%). If the published price PM premium were taken seriously Indian gold was 21.87% above world gold. The rupee closed little changed at $1= R61.535 (R61.54) and the stock market slipped 0.11%.

“There is no doubt the legal Indian gold trade is in a surly mood. They are being seriously harassed: see   Government seeks gold purchase information from jewellers as smuggling rises. JBGJ continues to wonder how viable politically this anti-gold campaign is….

“Shanghai gold closed at a premium of $13.35 to world gold of $1,240.25 on volume equivalent to 13,968 NY contracts (Wednesday $13.50/$1,241.64/14,565 NY). “Delivery Volume” fell to a low 5.554 tonnes (Wednesday 8.524 tonnes). JBGJ wonders if the tightness in London delivery bar noted last night is connected….

“MineWeb’s enterprising reporter Shivom Seth who is usually focused on India has published an upbeat China story   Fresh wave of gold buying ahead of Chinese New Year  which consolidates many recent positive anecdotes:…

“Last night contemplating the steady rise in world gold JBGJ remarked that the Bears needed to exert themselves again. In the event Feb gold peaked at $1,244.90 (up $6.60) about 1-10 AM and then was swept down almost $8 by 3-30 on quite heavy selling. Estimated CME web site volume as of 8AM was a considerable 57,000 lots: estimated at 9AM was 73,628 NY.  

“Subsequently gold has recovered on the NY economic data but volume has faded. The Gartman Letter  today takes note of  

“a very real, and apparently very powerful seller of gold”

active at the recent highs but so far the objective seems to be to cap gold rather than depress it – unlike last year.”

Capping Continues, John Brimelow JBGJ, 01/16/2014

Massive Climacterics such as Equities and $US and US T-Bond Tops and Gold and Silver bottoming, are developing. Savvy investors should consider putting on long Gold, Silver and Miners positions such as the ones we have recommended.

Those who recognize and take advantage of these Climacterics are likely to substantially Profit.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
January 17, 2014

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported January 16, 2014
1.5%     /    9.08%

U.S. Unemployment reported January 10, 2014
6.7%     /     23.3%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported December 20, 2013
1.97%        /     -1.70%

U.S. M3 reported January 3, 2014 (Month of December, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     3.32% (est . ) (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.512 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


Why Gold Price Suppression Can NOT Continue

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“Market data provider Nanex in Winnetka, Illinois, tonight produces proof that Monday’s smash down in the gold futures market was not a mistaken ‘fat finger’ trade but the product of a high-frequency algorithm trading program painstakingly designed to take the market down. Nanex’s report, with great charts, is here: http://www.nanex.net/FlashCrash/OngoingResearch.html ”

www.gata.org 01/08/2014

“…I don’t see why they can’t just keep doing this. After all, with each smash it gets easier for them to cover their short positions.”  

“Exposing them by somebody standing for gold delivery which can’t be delivered, is the way, but seems less and less likely. After all, Germany asked for gold delivery and didn’t get it. Nothing much happened!”

Private Communications to Deepcaster

The evidence that a Cartel (Note 1) of Central Bankers and Allies/Owners has been suppressing the Prices of Gold and Silver (so as not to have A Real Money Competitor, to their Fiat Currencies and Treasury Securities) has been building for years.

Indeed, the evidence is so overwhelming that it is increasingly making its way into certain Main Stream Media.

But the foregoing private communications to Deepcaster raise a Key Question. “Why can’t they just keep doing this?”

Many of us Gold Partisans have wondered the same thing, especially in light of the fact that Germany asked for its Gold back and did not get it.

But the Answer is Clear. Gold Price Suppression can not continue, which raises the questions “Why?” and “How much longer will it last?”

It can not continue indefinitely because available Physical Supplies are being drawn down much faster than Production plus “Scrap” can replace. We and others have noted the dramatic drawdown in Comex Supplies Registered (available) for Delivery. And depending on time and the Particular Market the spread between the Paper Price and the Higher Price for Deliverable Physical is often Quite Substantial.

Indeed, the “shortage” of Physical is already so substantial that Germany asked for its Physical to be repatriated from New York, and all they got was a Promise for seven years of Incremental Deliveries.

So given the foregoing evidence of Price Suppression, plus the Sovereign Nation of Germany’s Inability to repatriate its own Gold, what chance is there that the Price Suppression will end soon or ever?

Answer, a Good Chance of “soon.” Consider first The Challenge: every National (or Regional, as the Euro) Fiat Currency Printer in the World has an interest in attempting to delegitimize Gold and Silver as Real Money, by suppressing its Price. India’s Central Bank, after all, has (against popular sentiment) piled on Tariff after Tariff to slow the Importation of Gold.

But the Draw Down of Physical Continues, led by China, the World’s largest Importer and Producer. And China does not export Gold.

But One Key that the Price Suppression must end was Provided by another Communicant

“That’s a great question. Why can’t they just continue to do this? Perhaps they are loading up on physical at these reduced prices (most particularly Chinese interests are doing so) and then they’ll let the price go up?”

Private Communications to Deepcaster

China is clearly moving toward making a Gold-Backed Yuan the World’s Reserve Currency and is likely temporarily Complicit in facilitating the “low” current Prices so they can continue to Buy on the cheap.

But given the Physical Drawdown this can not last.

The German Repatriation Attempt Failure is a superb example of just how severe the Available Physical Supply Shortage is. (Germany was undoubtedly “leaned on” to accept Promises of a seven year Repatriation Scheme by its and the European Central Banks’ Central Bankers in the same way the US Taxpayer was leaned on to provide the Multi-hundred Billion Dollar Bank Bailout in 2008 – “The whole System will collapse unless you do it our way” is the likely [fallacious] “Argument”).

And the Regulators have proven themselves useless at best, and complicit at worst.

“MIDAS NOTE: So why and heck is it that someone doesn’t demand the identity of who pulled this trigger and call them out?

“What a lame dead regulatory/investigative world we have in the US.”

LeMetropoleCafe.com

But the Reason the Price Suppression can not continue much longer despite Cartel Suppression attempts is found in the recent Headline

“One week into 2014 UK Royal Mint Runs out of Gold Coins”

“JBGJ understands that the main market for these coins is the Gulf and India (H/T GMS). Very likely the demand surge reflects Indian smuggling off take.”

JBGJ 01/09/2014

China and “Retail” Investors in the Gulf, India and around the World are implementing an End Run around the Cartel’s Paper Price Suppression Scheme. Therefore, Expect more Delivery Failures, followed by Massive Launches up in Price.

The “when” can be answered by Monitoring the Markets and Physical Flows as Deepcaster’s Reports and Alerts to its Subscribers reflect.

No surprise then that even the “smart” Establishment Money and Opinion is shifting to a “Buy Gold” Perspective. Note The Gartman Letters’ Admonishment, and JBGJ’s correct observation:

“…we note the ‘reversal’ to the upside two weeks ago which still obtains even despite the ‘attack’ upon gold earlier this week when prices fell $30/oz. in a matter of moments. The fact that the weekly reversal in gold’s favour holds is impressive….as we watch gold buying continue at a heady pace in China and even too in India despite the latter’s government’s attempt to quell demand, we are impressed.

“…our propensity to act is rising.

The Gartman Letter

“While TGL is generally unpopular amongst gold friends, JBGJ’s observation is that the service has a pretty good buying record.”

JBGJ, 01/09/2014

And there is one more overriding Reason the Gold Price Suppression can not continue. Consider the Headlines and Introduction to Shadowstats.com 2014 Hyperinflation Report.

The Fed-led Destruction of the Purchasing Power of the World’s Reserve Currency, the U.S. Dollar, will leave one “Currency” left standing – Gold.

Extremely Difficult Circumstances in the Year Ahead:

Confluence of Economic and Systemic Crises Should Intensify  

With Global Confidence in Dollar Rattled by Uncontrollable Fiscal and Monetary Excesses, U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Have Limited Options to Address Panics  

Heavy Selling of U.S. Dollar Remains Likely Proximal Trigger for Inflation Pick-Up

Developing Hyperinflation Would Push Ongoing Recession into Deep Depression

Physical Gold Remains Primary Hedge for Preserving Wealth and Assets

"Nothing is normal: not the economy, not the financial markets, not the financial system and not the political system. The year ahead will be an extraordinarily difficult time, with a confluence of already-intensifying crises and likely panics pummeling the moribund economy, roiling the markets, and destabilizing the financial and political systems. With the federal government and Federal Reserve locked into their respective systemic-destructive fiscal and monetary policies, a related, continuing massive loss of global and domestic confidence in the U.S. dollar, should lead to an outright dumping of the U.S. currency in the global markets, setting the initial stages of a hyperinflationary great depression."

Hyperinflation 2014—The End Game Begins, No. 587: Special Commentary Shadowstats.com 01/07/2014

Physical Gold and Silver in one’s Personal Possession (NOT in Bank Vaults) are the best Protection. Deepcaster echoes Jim Rickards observation, which we paraphrase, “Those who become aware late, will wake up one day and find there is no Gold available.”

Best regards,

Deepcaster January 10, 2014

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


Are You A Critical Thinker?

Posted by: FusionEnterprise

Tagged in: Untagged 

FusionEnterprise

Yes, you respond, almost as a reflex.  I will posit here that there are several factors that might run counter to this response.  You might be open minded, fair, intelligent, questioning, well read and quite rigorous in your decision making process and yet come up short.  Critical Thinking does require all of these traits but let’s take a look at some more factors that can put you behind a very dark glass, or worse, inside of a very black box.

Are You Examining and Reexamining Your Assumptions?

For example you may be starting with the assumption that we in America live in a participatory democracy.  Yes, it has its faults but it is the greatest democracy in the history of the world and it is the best that we can hope for.  We need to strive to tweak the system by working for change, voting for our brand of politician, and speaking out against corruption.  Someone else might laugh and say, you are naïve.  We live under an Oligarchy and we are participating in a superficial form of sham democracy and the general population is seriously deluded with almost no understanding of what an Oligarchy is let alone that we are living under one.  How would you even begin to reconcile these two views?

Getting into a heated argument will not qualify as Critical Thinking.  Rather we need to uncover some strategies to take us to a new level of challenging our assumptions.  We will return to this below.

Are You Asking The Right Questions?

It is possible that asking to what degree we are operating in a democracy, a political consideration, is not the best question to get us where we want to go.  We could start with an ethical question: how can we deal the problem of greed and self interest?  Or we could ask an economic question: what is causing the growing disparity in incomes and wealth? Or we could ask a financial question: how does the 100 year old debt based monetary system skew free enterprise?  Or a legal question: how does contract law trump national sovereignty?

Wait a minute you say, this is getting way too complex.  I would respond with this:

“I would not give a fig for the simplicity this side of complexity, but I would give my life for the simplicity on the other side of complexity.” – Oliver Wendell Holmes

The journey to the other side requires a lot of effort.

Do You Know Your History?

I would suggest that we know far too much trivia and not enough about the history of political organization, the history of money, the history of the commons, the history of innovation, patent law, contract law, mining rights, systematic exploitation, religion, imperialism, anti-trust legislation, banking, etc.  The list is long and arduous. 

There are not enough people who have a sufficient grasp of history to support healthy discourse that would rise to the level of Critical Thinking.  We have a lot of really smart specialized people who are not fully educated.  Without a firm foundation in history, Critical Thinking is impossible.

Do You Understand the Present?

We suffer from an explosion of information that is impossible to fully encompass into our framework.  And so we come to rely upon various sources that we trust.  And we separate ourselves further and further from the source.  The so called Main Stream Media (MSM) becomes the arbiter of knowledge and custom for most and the population at large flounders in an ignorance that serves the interests of the few.  It is ironic that the free flow of vast quantities of information is masking the manipulation of the memes that dictate outcomes.

So ask yourself the question: am I digging it out or am I surfing the web?

Shaping Our Strategies

I maintain that there are more than enough honest self proclaimed Critical Thinkers out there to transform our world in short order, if we would take our game to a higher level.  As it is we are stuck in boxes with labels and spend a lot of time flailing in frustration against the myriad systems that entrap us.  We cluster around our particular causes that promote something near and dear to our hearts: less government, more government, an end to human trafficking, global warming, poverty and hunger, lower taxes, universal healthcare or cleaner air.  We are not bad to do so. 

However, we could seek to formulate a strategy that changes the way things are done.  We could doubt the very foundations of the systems that we have come to accept as inevitable.  And in our doubting we could imagine a world that honors our humanity.  I return to the tag line for this blog:

“The opportunity to shape the artifacts of our lives into forms that align our goals with our values and complete our humanity has never been greater.”

But it is a steep mountain of complexity to climb to get to the simplicity on the other side.

 

 https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=9054187062664562598#editor/target=post;postID=4332897799650607135;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=2;src=postname


Market Movers for 2014

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“JPMorgan Presents ‘The Era Of Central Bank-Driven Equity Rallies’

‘Back in April, when the S&P500 was at 1580 we forecast that the price target on the S&P500 for the global central bank syndicate was 1900. The S&P closed the year at 1850, just barely missing said target, which was merely a function of the correlation between the stock market and the straight-line, diagonally expanding consolidated central banks' balance sheet (yes, it is a "market" for idiots, but such is life under central planning... while it lasts).

‘Incidentally, there was a time as recently as two years ago, when saying the Fed is merely propping up stocks, was blasphemous in polite economist circles. Since then even the most tenured economists (not to mention the US Treasury) have finally admitted the truth…

‘…will the Fed finally be kind enough to release a newsletter each morning laying out where the S&P will close that day?’ ZeroHedge

“Gold’s friends will ask why this process did not affect gold.

“And answer that it probably did.”  

John Brimelow, JBGJ, LLC, 1/2/14

Maturing and Nascent Trends and New Developments should increase Social and Economic Turmoil and Greatly Increase Volatility in the Markets in 2014. Result: Mega Moves in Key Markets, the Most Salient of which we outline here.

These Mega Moves will create Great Opportunities for Profit for the Nimble and well-informed, and Great Losses for the Purblind or those in Denial of Economic and Financial Realities.

1. A Critical Reality is the ongoing Release of Bogus Official Data by U.S., Chinese and other Major Nations. In fact, Real U.S. GDP is a Negative 1.7%, with Real U.S. Inflation at 8.81% and Real U.S. Unemployment at 23.2% (Shadowstats.com – see Note 1).
Honest John Crudele, Business Writer for the NY Post Notes one such Specific Release of Bogus Data.

    “In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington…

    “The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated…

    “And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it…

    “Just two years before the presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report, which is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy…

    “And a knowledgeable source says the deception went beyond that one employee — that it escalated at the time President Obama was seeking reelection in 2012 and continues today.”

    “Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report” John Crudele, NY Post, 11/18/13

It is highly likely that the Release of the Politically Correct (i.e. Bogus) Data will continue.

2. A related phenomenon will be the intensifying (because Economic and Financial Realities are increasingly Politically Unacceptable to Powerful Interests) use of Perception Management – called “Communications Policy” by The Fed, and more accurately known as “Propaganda”, or “Brainwashing”.
This results in the Dissemination of Fictions such as “the Economy is Recovering”, and in often Unreliable “News” in the Main Stream Media.

3. The Reality in the U.S. is for example, that the Middle Class is increasingly Impoverished with Steadily Diminishing Purchasing Power. The Income Gap is widening with the top 10% Earners now receiving 51% of Income.
Coupled with increasing unemployment and underemployment in the U.S. and Eurozone, even if the Economy were recovering the “Recovery” would be, (and is) stillborn. Indeed, this Reality demonstrates that Fed, ECB and BOJ QE Policies do not help the Middle Class and “Main Street” but do help their Mega Bank Clients/Owners First and foremost, and the owners of Capital in the form of Securities, secondarily. Unfortunately, “Main Street”, Savers, and Retirees have been generally seriously hurt by such (e.g. ZIRP) Central Bank policies. This Reality will have significant Market Consequences in 2014. For example,

4. The foregoing Trend will make a Recovery Driven by the Middle Class Impossible, and the following related Trend will further Impair Real Recovery Possibilities.

5. As a result of Fed Policy, Corporate Earnings are a “Mirage” as Savvy Investor Carl Icahn Notes. This is because Fed QE has kept borrowing costs artificially low; thus artificially elevating corporate earnings.

6. The foregoing Trend of Increasing Central Bank/Government Interventionism in the Economy and Markets will increase to the extent the Public allows it. This means that Investor focus on Interventions, and Interventional Patterns is often as important, and at times much more important, than Fundamentals or Technical Analysis. For example, attention to all three facilitated Deepcaster’s making Accurate Market Timing Projections which resulted recently in quite Profitable Outcomes for recommended Trades in our Speculative Portfolio (Note 2).

7. The Trend of Interventionism is the Economy and Markets will be increasingly, unfortunately, replicated in the rise of a Police/National Security State. This is already being Manifested in increasing Surveillance (cf. NSA) Invasion of Privacy, Suppression of “Politically Incorrect” Speech and Reporting, and Use of Government, Globalist, and Police Entities to Control/Suppress Opponents of those in Political Power. The Consequent Growth of the Orwellian State is buttressed by the increased numbers of those dependent on Government benefits, most of whose complicity is thus (often reluctantly) “bought”. This “Complicity in Silent Submission” is not merely reflected in many of the 50% of those in the U.S., for example, who receive some kind of government aid, but also in those business enterprises worldwide which receive large Government Contracts, and/or obtain favorable Tax and Regulatory Policies.

As well, the increasing use of “Social Media” communication and centralized “Private” date on “The Cloud” increase Vulnerability to State Control as well as loss of privacy and loss of protection of Vital Business Data. (Is it prudent for any business to “store” data in The Cloud?!!)
All the foregoing works to achieve increasingly Centralized State Power and diminished Individual Freedom.

8. Major Trends, such as Rising Interest Rates which we earlier Forecast, are already “baked into the Financial Cake” as it were. The Timing of Most other Major Moves will be crucially Important Going Forward. Therefore, regarding Timing, we are Monitoring Key Signals which serve as Timing Indicators. We set forth such Indicators Signals in our Forecasts for the Sectors we cover.
For example, when the Yield on the U.S. 10 Year Note has multiple confirmed back to back closes substantially above 3%, that will signal that a significant U.S. long Bond Takedown is ready to launch. Sovereign and other large Investors are already Moving Away from the $US and US Debt due to the increasingly apparent U.S. Financial Insolvency. The $US has been supported above 80 (basis USDX) thus far by “Retail” Investors who are increasingly buying $US denominated Assets (such as U.S. Equities) and by Fed Bond purchasing, just as the Sovereigns and Pros. are selling. The aforementioned Indicator is one of several which will Signal when that “Moving” away is Morphing into “Running” away from the US Dollar and US Debt.

9. Re. Equities, we have earlier forecast that the Ongoing Equities Rally will Reverse into a Crash some time in 2014. This is why we have utilized a Congeries of Topping and Timing Indicators based on Fundamentals, Technicals and Interventionals.
Indeed, there are already important signals of Topping and Subsequent Major Takedown in 2014. For example, as we write there have been 5 Distribution Days on the NASDAQ and 6 on the S&P.
This is a sign Professional and other Major Investors are Selling just as Small. “Retail” Investors become more Bullish.
In addition, 59.6% of advisers are Bullish and only 14.1% Bearish according to a recent report from Investors Intelligence. This disproportionately Bullish Opinion is seen at Market Tops, just weeks or even a few months before market Crashes.
And there are four other indicators that signal that Mid and Long Term, Equities are set to Crash beginning in the next few months.

a) Long term Equities Charts with their Expanding “Jaws of Death” Wedge, are quite Bearish. It is a harbinger of what is coming.

b) Interest Rates are Rising (the U.S. 10 yr. T-Note Yield has already bounced up over (and around 3% as we write!) and

c) Excessive Leverage/Margin Debt is at record Highs -- over $400 Billion as of October 31.

d) The Russell 2000 was Trading at 75 times reported Trailing Earnings recently – Quite Unsustainable.
Stay tuned re. Timing and our Recommendations.

10. Perhaps the Most Significant Market Movers for 2014 will be the $US and US Long Bond.
Very significantly, the $US moved briefly below 80 basis USDX, recently, and it has been making lower highs and lower lows in recent months (check out a $US Chart). Not a Good Prospect for the $US.
And also very significantly and nearly simultaneously the Key 10 Yr. U.S. Treasury Note Interest Rate moved above 3% briefly recently. Both these Moves are Quite Important Harbingers of much weaker $US and long-term U.S. Treasuries, to come.
Indeed, a move below 78 basis USDX would mean Sovereign and Other major $US Holders have started dumping the $US en masse. We expect such serious dumping to begin sometime in 2014, (and we will discuss “Refuges” as the year progresses).
Up to now, most have been “merely” selling.

11. Ongoing Fed QE, a $17 Trillion US Budget Deficit and about $100 Trillion downstream unfunded liabilities have probably already doomed the $US as World’s Reserve Currency.
This means of course, that the $US’ purchasing power is headed for a Dramatic Decline and likely replacement as the World’s Reserve Currency by a Gold-backed Chinese Yuan. Consider well the Significance of the fact that the Chinese are now the World’s largest Importer, as well as the World’s largest Producer of Gold.
A main reason the $US Crash has not already begun is that other Fiat Currency Printers with Currencies in the USDX (e.g. Euro and Yen) are also devaluing their currencies.
A Currency Devaluation War is quietly underway and it will end very badly for the Economy and the Markets.
A Major Consequence is that as the $US (and other Major Fiat Currencies) Tanks, we expect it will be reflected Mainly in appreciation of the Price of Tangible Assets e.g. Crude Oil (we are already seeing this) and Gold and Silver (see our Forecasts). In the last two years, Paper Gold and Silver and Miners Prices have remained in Thrall to continuing Cartel Price Suppression and to the Perception that since the Economy is ostensibly recovering they are not needed as Safe Havens.
But we have forecast their artificially Depressed Prices will likely not Persist much longer.
Looking ahead, the Prospects for The Great Launch Up for Gold, Silver and the Miners beginning in 2014 are increasingly bolstered by the fact that Physical Bullion Supplies available for Delivery continue to Deplete – A recent report from the Comex shows the Registered (Available for Delivery) has shrunk to about 630,000 ounces.

12. And we must not forget that the Crude Oil Price is perhaps the most Tangible “Honest” Market Mover for 2014. Weeks ago we forecast WTI Crude would hit $100/bbl by year-end and indeed it has. A Harbinger of things to come for Tangible Assets. Partly this is the result of 4 th straight weekly drop in Crude Supplies and the EIA report that showed U.S. above-ground supplies were the lowest since September, and in part because Chinese and certain other Asian countries’ demand continues to increase, albeit more slowly than prior to 2009. Going Forward, we think the prospective Equities Rally beyond Year-End is likely to be sufficiently Strong that, coupled with increasing Chinese and Asian Tiger demand, WTI Crude Oil will launch up toward $110. $110 WTI is a likely to be the maximum short term top, by or before, early to mid 2014 as Equities top. Only the launching of The Great Crash, likely beginning later in 2014, will likely serve to deflate Crude Prices significantly once again, but only for a while.

Focus on the aforementioned Macro Market Movers is Essential for Investors’ Profit and Wealth Protection.

Best regards,

Deepcaster January 3, 2014

Note 1:   Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers   vs.   Real Numbers  (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation   reported December 17 , 2013
1. 24 %     /    8.8 1 %

U.S. Unemployment   reported December 6 , 2013
7. 0 %     /     23. 2 %

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline   reported December 20 , 2013
1. 97 %        /     -1.70%

U.S. M3 reported December 28 , 2013   (Month of November , Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     4. 14 %
(i.e, total M3 Now at $15.489 Trillion!)

Note 2: 140% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 27, 2013 after just 10 days (i.e., about 5200% Annualized)

40% Profit on Equity Index Call on December 19, 2013 after just 2 days (i.e., about 7500% Annualized)

135% Profit on Equity Index Call on October 28, 2013 after just 13 days (i.e., about 3800% Annualized)

110% Profit on Equity Index Call on October 22, 2013 after just 7 days (i.e., about 5800% Annualized)

120% Profit on Equity Index Put on October 9, 2013 after just 16 days (i.e., about 2700% Annualized)


Nickel Energy

Posted by: FusionEnterprise

Tagged in: Untagged 

FusionEnterprise

That’s what the Chinese are calling it, “Nickel Energy.”  Not a bad move actually considering the bad reputation that cold fusion has been saddled with.  And Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR), well it leaves a lot to be desired considering how popular nuclear energy is in some circles.  So potentially the most disruptive technology to come along since fire was mastered, is being virtually ignored in the most powerful country on earth, while it is being embraced in China?  Wait, let’s parse that sentence.  Maybe we aren’t the most powerful country on earth.  Maybe the country smart enough to buy our gold at a price kept artificially low by J P Morgan on behalf of the Fed, is already ahead of us and we just haven’t faced up to it yet.

In July I ended my post on LENR with this sentence: “So the lesson here is this.  Pay attention.  LENR is not only real, it will have impact.  And how it is controlled through the use or misuse of patents could shape our future.”   With China now firmly in the picture and the US media pretty much ignoring the science, it would appear that patents might not be the issue.  The game will be played out on a much bigger stage than the pliable US Patent Office.  Andrea Rossi is the name most associated with nickel and hydrogen to make clean safe energy.  Andrea Rossi lives in the USA.  We could have used LENR to save the dollar.  Instead we are treating LENR like a poor cousin….. a poor cousin now being adopted by the Chinese. 

A colleague and I have formed NuClean Energy to work on low heat, energy efficient applications.  (The similarity of NuClean to nuclear is intentional)  We have known for some time now that LENR is real and that it is coming.  We also believe that it is a candidate for generating distributed power.  It could actually make the grid superfluous 50 years from now.  So maybe having the Chinese team up with a US company to develop the technology will be a good thing for the world.  Maybe MiLords will not get it under their control and it will rain cheap clean energy on the just and the unjust.

Sorry I can’t send you to a link to this story, unless you can read Chinese.  It is not being reported here yet.  I have to run now.  I need to modify some refrigerator plans to accept an LENR heat module in place of wood or solar.  Maybe that new refrigerator company should be called Sunwood Nuclear instead of Sunwood Ice. 

And guess what?  Nickel is just one of the candidate metallic elements for LENR.  Nickel Energy might just be the first one out of the bag.  We live in exciting times.  Yes, MiLords, the times they are a changing.

 

 

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The Fed – Anniversary Exposé Benefits

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: Untagged 

Deepcaster

“Secret negotiations established a banking cartel. It’s grown ever stronger through the years.” It operates “independently.”

“Rather than preventing financial crises, it precipitates new ones.”

“We know Fed policy continues to reap profits for Wall Street while impoverishing Main Street.”

“One hundred years is long enough. End the Fed.”

– Ron Paul

It is important for Investors and Citizens in General to know why, in the Midst of an Ostensible Economic Recovery, Middle Class Impoverishment continues, while Insiders well-connected to the Banking Cartel flourish.

The Answers, including Opportunities for Profit and Wealth Protection, lie in an examination of Highlights of the History and Policies of the Private for-Profit Federal Reserve on its 100 th Anniversary this December, 2013. Consider:

“The Federal Reserve Act was passed in 1913 in response to a wave of bank crises, which had hit on average every six years over a period of 80 years. The resulting economic depressions triggered a populist movement for monetary reform in the 1890s. Mary Ellen Lease, an early populist leader, said in a fiery speech that could have been written today:

“Wall Street owns the country. It is no longer a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, but a government of Wall Street, by Wall Street, and for Wall Street…

“We want money, land and transportation. We want the abolition of the National Banks, and we want the power to make loans direct from the government…

“…the Federal Reserve Act that they got was not what the populists had fought for, or what their leader William Jennings Bryan thought he was approving when he voted for it in 1913…

“What Bryan and the populists sought was a national currency issued debt-free and interest-free by the government, on the model of Lincoln’s Greenbacks. What the American people got was a money supply created by private banks as credit (or debt) lent to the government and the people at interest…

“The new system was supposed to prevent bank runs, but it clearly failed in that endeavor. In 1929, the United States experienced the worst bank run in its history…

“The New York Fed had been pouring newly-created money into New York banks, which then lent it to stock speculators… precipitating the 1929 stock market crash…

“The result was widespread unemployment and loss of homes and savings, similar to that seen today. In a scathing indictment before Congress in 1934, Representative Louis McFadden blamed the Federal Reserve. He said:

“Mr. Chairman, we have in this Country one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Banks…

“The depredations and iniquities of the Fed has cost enough money to pay the National debt several times over. . . .

“Some people think that the Federal Reserve Banks are United States Government institutions. They are private monopolies which prey upon the people of these United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers; foreign and domestic speculators and swindlers; and rich and predatory money lenders.

“These twelve private credit monopolies were deceitfully and disloyally foisted upon this Country by the bankers who came here from Europe and repaid us our hospitality by undermining our American institutions.”

“100 Years Is Enough: Time to Make the Fed a Public Utility”
Ellen Brown, lemetropolecafe.com, 12/22/13

Congressman McFadden was “rewarded” for his Courage with 3 Assassination Attempts, the third of which was reportedly successful.

Stephen Lendman describes Connection between the Federal Reserve Act and the enactment of the Federal income Tax.

“‘In plain English, the Federal Reserve Act (FSA) authorized a private central bank to create money out of nothing, lend it to the government at interest, and control the nation’s money supply, expanding or contracting it at will.’

“Weeks before FSA was enacted, the 1913 Revenue Act became law. It imposed a federal income tax. It did so to pay bankers interest on America’s money. It let taxpayers do it.”

“ ‘One hundred years is long enough. End the Fed.’ Put money power back in public hands where it belongs!”

Stephen Lendman, veteransnewsnow.com, 12/23/13

Lendman also describes how the Act was born in Secrecy and how the Machinations of The Fed remain Secret to this very day.

“In 1910, seven powerful figures met secretly. They did so on Jekll Island. Nelson Aldrich and Frank Valderclip represented Rockefeller financial interests.

“Charles Norton and Benjamin Strong represented JP Morgan. Paul Warburg represented Rothschild family interests. No one represented popular ones.

“Rockefeller/Morgan/Rothschild representatives planned the Federal Reserve System.”

Ibid.

And he goes on to describe how the Act is arguably Unconstitutional.

“Doing so violated the Constitution’s Article I, Section 8. It affords Congress sole power to coin (create) money and regulate the value thereof.

“In 1935, the Supreme Court ruled Congress can’t constitutionally delegate its authority to another body or group.

“Congress and Wilson defrauded the public. They did so by granting Wall Street money creation power. They gave powerful bankers absolute monetary control.

“US and world economies changed. They did so for the worst.”

Ibid.

It is thus understandable why one of the United States’ Founders, Thomas Jefferson, warned

“I sincerely believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.”

“Already they have raised up a money aristocracy that has set the government at defiance.”

“The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs.”

Thomas Jefferson

Lendman goes on to Warn of the International Banking Cartel’s Apparent Goal.

“The Fed isn’t federal. It has no reserves. It’s one of four dominant central banks. Others include the Bank of England, ECB, and Bank of Japan.

“The Basel, Switzerland-based Bank of International Settlements (BIS) functions as a central bank for central bankers.

“It’s an unaccountable boss of bosses. It’s final solution plan calls for establishing a global currency it controls. Achieving it assures ultimate money power.”

Ibid.

And Lendman describes the Consequences of Mega-Banker Control of the World’s Economy.

“Fed policy caused booms, busts, inflation, deflation, instability, crises, and today’s protracted Main Street Depression.

“Growing poverty, unemployment, underemployment, homelessness, hunger and human misery reflect it. Money power in private hands is responsible for:

  • economic instability;
  • wrecking world economies for profit;
  • waging wars for it;
  • rising consumer debt;
  • record budget and trade deficits;
  • an out-of-control national debt;
  • record numbers of business and personal bankruptcies;
  • millions of home foreclosures;
  • loss of America’s manufacturing base; and
  • an unprecedented wealth gap between America’s privileged class and all others.”

Ibid.

No wonder then that G. Edward Griffin in his Definitive Classic aptly named The Fed “The Creature”, The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at The Federal Reserve.

But an important Guide we take from The Fed and its Mega-Bank Allies to Date, is that they will continue their Monetary Inflation (QE) indefinitely to maintain and enhance Power.

How can the Fed keep rates “low for a long time” as it recently promised, if QE is not continued in some form or another indefinitely?

For Profit and Wealth Protection we can infer and benefit if we are prepared for:

  1. Monetary Inflation (of the $US and other Major Fiat Currencies) continuing, with all the consequent Opportunities we have described in our Alerts for Profit and Wealth Protection, and
  2. The $US Purchasing Power is being destroyed by The Fed with one consequence being that at some point soon it will no longer serve as the World’s Reserve Currency. Already China has entered into Bilateral Yuan Currency Swap Deals with Major Nations. And as the World’s largest Gold Producer and Importer it is preparing to back the Yuan with Gold.
  3. Another Financial Crisis and Market Crash is therefore on the Agenda and
  4. US Treasury Bonds are The Greatest Financial Bubble in History both because the U.S. is the largest Debtor Nation in History and because the Bonds are denominated in a deteriorating (thanks to the Fed) Fiat Currency – a Bubble is destined to pop.

 

Best regards,

Deepcaster
December 27, 2013


Einstein's Refrigerator

Posted by: FusionEnterprise

Tagged in: Untagged 

FusionEnterprise

Einstein’s Refrigerator

The absorption refrigerator was invented in 1859 and has been improved upon greatly with Einstein himself deigning to participate in a patent in the 1920’s, long after his fame was assured.  In Kenya in 1969 we had no running water, no electricity, and no indoor Johnny.  But we did have a pressure lamp for light and an absorption refrigerator, both powered by kerosene.   The wick driving the full size refrigerator was about 1¼” in diameter and it burned continuously 24 hours a day.  We could make ice cubes and keep our food cold.  With a Primus camping stove to heat our bath water, we were all set.

Now I am using a frost free refrigerator that is powered by electricity generated far away at about 35% fuel efficiency, with another efficiency drop over power lines, and another drop in my compressor.  I am guessing the same fossil fuel could drive three refrigerators if burned locally using a zero maintenance absorption refrigerator.  Don’t even get me started on how much energy it takes to get fossil fuel from deep in the ground to point of use.

So why did Einstein take time out from his search for a unified theory of everything to work on a patent for a refrigerator?  Well for one thing, food preservation is pretty important.  When power went out for 4 days in our house, we were able to survive with candles, and residual water pressure, and cistern water.  But we were in a panic about our freezer thawing out in July heat.  (I will return to this theme soon in a post about cold storage for potatoes in Bangladesh using tri-generation, but for now let’s stay on track with our absorption refrigerator.)  So we installed a propane generator to see us through such power outages.

But what happens if the propane runs out in an extended outage?  Well unbeknownst to me, there is an even simpler intermittent absorption design that can use wood or solar heat in a relatively short burn to drive a refrigerator or freezer.  In this design the cooling starts when the heat is removed.  So after a one hour wood burn or a 4 hour solar run, the work of making ice begins.  So in a world without grid power, I can have a refrigerator that is run by burning twigs once a day in a small firebox on my back porch.  Want to make ice for more than one appliance or to sell?  Fire it up two or three times a day.  That is if I go to the trouble of designing and building a finished product.

I think I will call this effort SunWood Ice.  And maybe it can exist as a Fusion Enterprise without any inc. or LLC after it.  Just an enterprise to make something locally that doesn’t need fossil fuel to run. 

Somehow I think Einstein would approve.

 

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The End of The Gold Channel

Posted by: Bigdad06

Tagged in: Untagged 

Bigdad06

Merry Christmas and happy holidays to everyone! After more than 6 years of “exposing” the crime and fraud in these markets and governments worldwide, today these markets and governments are more corrupt than ever.  Recently access to my Youtube account has been denied and blocked permanently by the NSA with the help of Google. I was recently told by a friend of mine who is a computer programmer who also works for the government that he could get access to my account again if I really wanted it. However after thinking about it I realized that would possibly put him in harms way and jeopardize his job so I declined the offer. I thought about starting another Youtube channel, but if I did that I would still be at the mercy of the NSA and Google as far as access denial attacks so I don't view that as an option as it is still their platform. So what this means is I am unable to upload any new video commentary or interviews to The Gold Channel. I am also unable to make any comments on video's any longer or answer an messages or emails via Youtube. The Gold Channel will remain up with all of the past interviews and commentary of the past six years so you can still go back and review past interviews and commentary.

This however does not mean that I will stop fighting the corruption. It just means that I have to fight smarter and double my efforts at getting precious metals into the hands of those people who are "awake". The people who watch my videos and other video's like mine "get it". So it is no longer necessary to do any hand holding. People who are still stacking gold and silver at this point have iron hands as all the weak handed holders were flushed out months and years ago. What is needed now is for me to help those in my community prepare spiritually, mentally, emotionally, physically, and financially. So that is what I have been working on lately. I will also continue to post written commentary from time to time on Bullionbullscanada.com and Dont-tread-on.me thanks to Jeff Nielson and Chris Duane who have graciously allowed me to post video's and commentary on their websites for the past few years. I will also continue to do radio interviews from time to time with Ryan Brooks on Oriontalkradio.com and thesoundoffreedom.info .  I would also like to thank Sean over at Sgtreport.com for supporting my channel over the years by re-posting my videos on his website.

"Gold is money, nothing else. Silver is more!"  - Bigdad06

The first part of that statement was spoken more than 101 years ago on December 19, 1912 at the Pujo Committee of the House of Representatives that was investigating the power of Wall Street. John Pierpont Morgan actually said, "Money is gold, nothing else.  “Money is gold” is often misquoted as “Gold is money.” However I like the misquote better than the original so I decided to use that as the theme of The Gold Channel adding to that statement, "Silver is more." Meaning that because silver is consumed as an industrial metal and gold is not, then at some point in the future silver will be valued more than gold as above ground silver supplies have largely disappeared. Some find this ludicrous and incredulous as they look at the daily prices quoted. However there is a big difference between price and value and unfortunately our educational system doesn't teach people the difference. Platinum is already priced at a 1 to 1 ratio with gold and it doesn't have anywhere near the uses silver has. Bitcoin just achieved a 1 to 1 ratio with gold and it is a digital currency! In time I will be proven right.

I would like to thank all of my subscribers who have supported The Gold Channel over the years and I hope it was of some benefit to you and your families in helping to sift through all of the lies and propaganda of The One Bank, http://bullionbullscanada.com/intl-commentary/26287-the-one-bank, government, and main stream media. Real friends, real skills, and real assets will be what defines the new paradigm. Hopefully you are prepared for change as it will be the only constant in the years ahead.

I would like to personally thank all the guests who have done interviews with me over the years.

Reginald Kaigler/ Demcad on Youtube.com 

Chris Duane - Dont- tread-on.me and The Greatest Truth Never Told on Youtube.com

Woody O'Brien - Abolishfiatslavery.com

Jeff Nielson - Bullionbullscanada.com

Ryan Brooks  - thesoundoffreedom.info

Dr. Lee Warren - Plim2.org

Mickey Fulp - Mercenarygeologist.com

Gary Yantis retired electronics engineer Atomic Energy Commission 

Dr. Joseph Thomas

Dr. Jim Willie - Goldenjackass.com

Barry Solomon - Drescapes.com

James Dines - Dinesletter.com

Dr. Ann Socolofsky - anthrax

Eric Radez - co chairman chicagoresourceexpo.com

Trey Stinnett - Secondarrowsilver.com

Will Lehr - Perpetualassets.com

Gus Demos - Perpetualassets.com 

Ole Dammegard- Lightonconspiracies.com

Valencia Dantzler - Motherdiva on Youtube.com

William Dean A. Garner - Adagiopress.com

Margaret Phew - centurian and survivor of the Great Depression

Terry Pettie - philosopher, screen writer, and former military fire fighter

Much love and peace to you all over this holiday season and the years ahead!

 


Storm Signals & Opportunities

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

Storm Signals and Opportunities

“Volatile oil and gasoline prices continued to dominate the monthly and annual swings in consumer inflation.  Going forward, risks generally favor higher energy inflation driving the headline consumer inflation indices higher.  Energy prices generally have an inverse relationship to U.S. dollar strength.  For example, a weak U.S. dollar against other currencies tends to put upside pressure on oil and gasoline prices.  Post-2008 bouts of dollar weakness generally have been triggered by the ongoing quantitative-easing (also known as dollar-debasement) policies of the Federal Reserve.  …

“The U.S. dollar recently has seen some minimal selling pressure.  That pressure likely will intensify sharply in the near future, with “tapering” (if any) by the Fed not likely to be of substance.  Underlying systemic-liquidity and economic circumstances actually favor intensified quantitative easing.  Combine that with the lack of a meaningful effort by the federal government to address fiscal imbalances and the long-term sovereign solvency issues of the United States; with shifting sentiments on the deteriorating political environment in Washington; and with a still-weakening economy; and circumstances are set for a rapidly intensifying sell-off of the U.S. dollar.  Again, as the U.S. dollar comes under heavy selling pressure, the weakening U.S. currency rapidly should be translated into rising oil-price-related inflation. …”

Commentary No. 583, Shadow Government Statistics, Shadowstats.com, 12/17/2013

U.S. Debt continues to increase, and is now 105% of GDP, and the recent “Budget Deal” does nothing to solve the U.S. Solvency issues. At some point, sooner rather than later, taper will have to stop and QE be reinstituted. Thus more Money Printing. Thus rising Hyperinflation is a threat and an the Opportunity! Nota Bene that the U.S. is already Threshold Hyperinflationary 8.8% CPI.

“Alternate Consumer Inflation Measures.   The ShadowStats-Alternate Consumer Inflation Measure (1990-Base) annual CPI inflation was roughly 4.7% in November, versus 4.4% in October.  The ShadowStats-Alternate Consumer Inflation Measure (1980-Base), which reverses gimmicked changes to official CPI reporting methodologies back to 1980, rose to about 8.8% in November 2013, versus 8.5% in October. …”

Ibid.

And other Official Numbers are Bogus, as well, and not jst for the U.S., but also for China and certain other Major Nations.

“The false recoveries in the real retail sales series, industrial production and GDP all are due to the understatement of the rate of inflation used in deflating those series.  Deflation by too-low an inflation number (such as the CPI-U) results in the deflated series overstating inflation-adjusted economic growth (see   Hyperinflation 2012   and   Special Commentary (No. 485).  The “recovery” patterns do not hold, however, if the series are corrected for understated inflation. …

“With the higher inflation of the ShadowStats measure, the revamped numbers show a pattern of plunge and stagnation, consistent with patterns seen in real median household income, consumer confidence measures, unemployment and housing statistics.   …

“Official real earnings today still have not recovered their inflation-adjusted levels of the early-1970s, and, at best, have been flat for the last decade.    …

“The hyperinflation forecast for 2014 remains in place, with 90% odds estimated in favor of its occurrence….”

Ibid.

And this Taper must at some point be stopped, and indeed, reversed.

“Due to ongoing solvency issues within the U.S. banking system, that Federal Reserve is locked into a liquidity trap of flooding the system with liquidity, with no resulting surge in the money supply (see Commentary No. 580).  Yet, the Fed’s quantitative easings have damaged the dollar, which in turn has triggered sporadic inflation from the related boosting of oil prices.  The overhang of dollars in the global markets—outside the formal U.S. money supply estimates—is well in excess of $10 trillion.  As those funds are dumped in the global markets, the weakening dollar will trigger dumping of U.S. Treasury securities and general flight from the U.S. currency.  As the Fed moves to stabilize the domestic financial system, the early stages of a currency-driven inflation will be overwhelmed by general flight from the dollar, and a resulting surge the domestic money supply.  Intensifying the crisis, and likely coincident with heavy flight from the dollar, odds also are high of the loss of the dollar’s global-reserve-currency status….”

Ibid.

Reviewing Signals which Portend Major Economic or Financial Developments and thus Major Market Moves provides both useful Warnings and Profit Opportunities.

The aforementioned Realities are already beginning to be reflected in other Indicators.

1. Regarding Technicals, long term Equities Charts are, given their Expanding multi-year “Jaws of Death” Wedge, quite Bearish. And it is this Mid to Long-term likely Bearish Reality that has influenced Equities recent Bearish Moves. They are a harbinger of what is coming. Indeed we have had Multiple Hindenberg Omen Observations in the past 30 days.

And there are four other indicators that, Mid and Long Term, signal Equities are set to Crash in the next few months.

2. Interest Rates are Rising: Consider a U.S. 10Yr Interest Rate Chart for 2013. Then consider what already rising rates are likely do to your preferred Investment Sectors and

3. Excessive Leverage - Margin Debt is at record Highs, over $400 Billion as of October 31. We saw what excessive leverage did in 2007-2009 . It will soon be time to go short. Stay tuned to Deepcaster regarding timing.

4. The Russell 2000 is Trading at 75 times reported Trailing Earnings – Quite Unsustainable.

5. Distribution Days are increasing

There is still one Reason among several we think the Fed will NOT be able to continue Tapering for more than a few months more, at most. A Significant Taper would cause interest rates to shoot UP – to over the critical 3% level on the U.S. Ten Year – thus creating Serious Problems Elsewhere, like an Equities Market Crash.

In sum, lessening, but still continuing, Fed Bond Buying will likely keep rates on the U.S. 10 year Note below 3% for a very few months more, but cannot keep them from rising indefinitely.

Indeed, they are already rising. There is simply too much Fed-created Hot Money in the System. This occurs because Fed QE suppresses interest rates, which lowers borrowing costs, which artificially elevates corporate Earnings. These earnings are thus Hot, i.e., artificially created, money. Carl Icahn is therefore correct to recently call corporate earnings “a mirage.” Perforce, Equities are poised to Fall.

Even so, the Fundamental Pressure for higher rates will eventually overwhelm Fed action therefore, short- to mid- term, we expect rates to continue to trend slowly up toward 3% on the 10 year; after that they will begin to accelerate.

By “Fundamental Pressure,” we mean Price Increases (Purchasing Power Decreases) coming from the Real Economy, e.g., from rising Oil Prices.

Re Gold and Silver, these Precious Metals were in the Doldrums last week, and The Cartel (Note 1) took the opportunity to take them down further that week and ostensibly better Economic Numbers. And this week The Cartel struck again with another massive Takedown.

Gold and Silver Paper Price Performance is playing out as we earlier forecast. However, we reiterate that Gold and Silver are completing creating a Great Bottom, a Launching Pad for the inevitable next Great Move up. Stay tuned for timing.

Since Equities are likely to Rally through the End of 2013 and into January (see our Forecasts), we expect that the attraction of Gold and Silver as Safe Havens will be somewhat muted for a very few weeks more. But The Great Launch up is likely to begin soon.

Looking ahead, the Prospects for The Great Launch Up to all time record highs beginning by 2014 are increasingly bolstered by the fact that Physical Bullion Supplies available for Delivery continue to Deplete – A recent report from the Comex shows the Registered (Available for Delivery) has shrunk to about 630,000 ounces.

Finally, the Great Impending Storm (and the Opportunity) is the bursting of the Bond Bubble.

“Today the US debt is $16.7 trillion. The entire Gross Domestic Product of the US is $15.68 trillion. This means that the debt to GDP ratio is over 105%. History shows that a debt to GDP ratio of over 100% is dangerous. With the debt growing exponentially, we face a situation of inflation, hyperinflation or bankruptcy…

“As I see it, we are in the latter phase of perhaps the greatest debt bubble in history. A bubble can inflate just so far, and then it pops. When the current debt bubble bursts, it will prove to be an unmitigated disaster.”

Richard Russell, DTL, 12/14/13

Deepcaster has been writing for a while about our mid to long term forecast that the increasing Debt/Bond Bubble is bound to burst, a view which other Independent Financial Commentators such as Richard Russell, share with us.

But how and when we get to the mid-term, and especially what we invest in, in the short term, is most important, because it will help determine whether we enjoy Profit and Wealth Protection, or suffer Dramatic loss of Wealth when that Biggest Bubble Bursts. Stay tuned.

Therefore we recommend Gold as Safe Haven and Great Profit Opportunity. In this connection, Jim Rickards’s observation is most wise.

“Rickards knows that the price of Gold is down 30% from its highs but ‘on the physical side, the shelves are being stripped bare,’ he says.

“’China and Europe are just buying every ounce they can get their hands on and that actually makes sense,” Rickards explains. ‘If the price is being suppressed because weak hands are dumping it or there’s manipulation in the market, you would expect people to buy it.’

“When things turn around, says Rickards, ‘you’re going to find there’s no gold available.’”

dailyticker.com, 12/19/2013

Best regards,

Deepcaster December 20, 2013

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

 


Zoning, Suburban Sprawl and Laying Hens

Posted by: FusionEnterprise

Tagged in: Untagged 

FusionEnterprise

Zoning Laws and Suburban Sprawl

We often lament the dehumanization of our communities, with nobody sitting on the front porch and no conversations around the cracker barrel.  Often we blame this on the automobile or the oil lobby or some other interest group and not without some justification.  But one of the contributing factors is zoning law, which made the corner store illegal and put a real crimp on home industries.  Yes this has tidied up the neighborhood but do we really want it to be so sterile that we only see people on Facebook or at work? 

This blog is pointed toward the formation of Fusion Enterprises which have one defining characteristic, they put humanity first, and this often means that they are local.  Local people using resources that are in abundance to make things and provide services for local people (and maybe some left over for export to the extended family).  We will discuss the other attributes of Fusion Enterprises as we go along, but for today I just want to look at zoning.  Zoning is something that can be addressed locally and we don’t have to flail our arms in the air in exasperation  because we can’t  bring down the Oligarchy that is ruling us, you know MiLords.  Not to say that MiLords will not fight us when we take over local zoning, but they will have to wage 10,000 little battles and we will be on home turf (sort of like why we had a big advantage over King George III in the 1770’s).

 

Frankly fighting this battle is not high on my personal list.  I am assuming that if things get really tough and people start making things locally, nobody is going to be enforcing zoning laws.  But for those of you who like to duke it out with the County Board of Supervisors or the City Council, I applaud your efforts to get zoning laws ready for the coming era, when Fusion Enterprises will come into their own.  A good place to start might be fighting for the right to run chickens in your back yard.  

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