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MUST We ????

Posted by: EpluribusUNO

Tagged in: Untagged 

EpluribusUNO

If Bashar Assad really has used chemical weapons on his own people in a big way, America MUST intervene" - Headline in The Economist Aug 22 2013

"Must"...

Days after arrival of a UN inspection team, now on the ground in Syria, ready to inspect earlier reports of chemical weapons use, new reports claim 1300 new dead, without visible trauma.

A year ago this week, President Obama said that use of chemical weapons by Assad would be a game changer for direct US involvement in the civil war.

According to Vladimir Putin, sarin gas use has an equal potential to be used by the Al Queda-backed rebels to trigger American involvement.

Without disputing the tragedy of 1300 people in a Damascus suburb being gassed by sarin, does it make sense that Assad would be the one to risk the apparently SOLE action that would bring the US into the war against him? He has managed to maintain the upper hand for a full year since Obama's announcement without using gas and avoiding the inevitable fate of Libya's Moammar Ghadaffi. Why would he do it now while there are inspectors readily available to become the authoritative accusers against him?

The rebels, those of 'eat the heart of your enemy on TV" fame, have made no progress in a year, unless destroying a large part of the economy and infrastructure of Syria can be considered progress. Perhaps they need to stage a real or 'made for youtube' gas attack to get some desperately needed help for their cause.

The time has come to question EVERYTHING that the media reports not as fact, but as propaganda intended to persuade the public to a pre-determined opinion or to anesthetize them with contradicting exposures. There are no independent, trustworthy, authoritative sources able to confirm or deny whether such attacks actually happened, and if so, who perpetrated them. Or is it just one more "Wag the Dog" scenario being played out here, simultaneous to so many in Egypt?  Is there ANY trustworthy journalism LEFT in the world media? Or is everything now propaganda with a purpose?

I think there is likely very little confusion in the real agenda playing out in the Middle East, which may have little to do with the sideshow on the ground. There is a long term geopolitical process continuing in the region, about Big Power spheres of influence and long-term control of increasingly scarce oil/energy for the latter half of the 21st century.  It began prior to World War 1. Regional history since then, and since the discovery of the world's primary oil reserve, have just been a sequence of moves on a chessboard.

Israel, Palestine, Algeria, Suez, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Arab Spring... Move, countermove.

Jew, Arab, Muslim, Shiite, Sunni... bluff, counterbluff.

None of the on-ground tragedy is relevant to the manipulators of these events. People on both sides are expendable, and it matters not whether gas was used against established political and moral convention. If the gas attack is true, it is a tactic. Whether true or not, media coverage is also a tactic. By whom, for what is yet to be seen.

The stakes are much greater here, and no one is backing down. Timing is important here. This a proxy for the real events to come. Is it coincidence that the world's monetary system is now more precarious than in 2007-8? All Mideast countries having upheavals simultaneously? Is this all building to a crescendo? Or is that just what we are supposed to think?

China, America and Russia are laying the groundwork for the next (strategic economic) world war, maneuvering for control over the essential resources of Central Asia and Africa. The battle grounds are in the worlds commodity markets, Central Banks, and geo-political flashpoints played out by surrogates, who have been duped not to see themselves as pawns. If there are Syrian rebels, troops, or civilian women and children who are foaming at the mouth, writhing in asphyxiation, and dying a horrible death this week, they are just the latest collateral damage caught in the crossfire.

The 'stage' has been literally 'set' so that America not only 'should' intervene, but now we "MUST"!

Is this the Pearl Harbor of Armageddon? And is it a real or staged media creation designed solely to CONVINCE us we "MUST", so that we don't consider "Who WANTS it and WHY?

~Epluribus

http://www.EpluribusUNO.wordpress.                                           http://wp.me/p3Ertk-9w


 

 

When gold failed to hold above $1,800, I became skeptical. The stock market was on fire, so why would anyone want to buy gold, as the easy money was already made? Then we saw spot prices fall below $1,700, $1,600, and then $1,500…when I turned bearish. (Read “Is Gold’s Near-Death Crisis Over-Exaggerated? Concerns of a Market Meltdown May Not Be.”)

Well, fast-forward four months, and I continue to be neutral-to-bearish. I just don’t see any point buying the precious metal at this time: there’s minimal inflation and the world is not going to blow up anytime soon, plus you have so much money funneled into stocks.

When gold broke below $1,300 towards $1,200, I suggested traders buy on the dip, but also sell on rallies. That’s still my contention at this point; with the spot price at $1,326, I would not be a buyer. Now, if the yellow ore fell below $1,300, I would consider buying as a trade.

If I’m wrong, then so are investment gurus John Paulson and George Soros, who are running for the exits and divesting a major portion of their gold holdings. According to filings from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the SPDR Gold Trust run by Paulson sold off over half of its gold holdings in the second quarter. I simply wouldn’t be betting against these two.

The global demand is also at a four-year low, according to the World Gold Council. The organization attributed the decline to investors selling bullion funds and lower buying by the world central bankers. (Source: Harvey, J. “Gold demand hits 4-year low as investors pull out – WGC,” Reuters web site, August 15, 2013.)

When I look at the chart, I cannot say there is any optimism. After a series of multiple tops at $1,800 in 2011 and 2012, the metal has been sliding as I discussed.

The chart shows some support, but I believe prices could falter again towards the next Fibonacci Level, at around $1,210. Goldman Sachs has a $1,200 target on gold; failing to hold here, the metal could slide to around $1,050.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Whatever the situation, I still see more downside risk than upside potential, based on my technical analysis. The supporters will tell you how the metal is limited and how you need to accumulate positions. While I do agree with this, I just don’t feel it’s that time just yet.


Climacterics Coming – Prepare!

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster


“The whole concept of creating money without toil or risk is an integral province of the Federal Reserve. I believe that one way or another, the Federal Reserve and all it stands for will be eliminated. The process by which this will occur worries me. I believe it will take a huge disruption of our current economic system in order to eliminate the Federal Reserve and its immoral process of money being created out of a computer and thin air.

“The process of creating money from “nothing” makes a mockery of real work of all kinds. Thus, by inference, I am calling the Federal Reserve an evil institution. The more so, since it denigrates gold, which is, and has always been, true wealth, wrung out of the earth through man’s sweat and toil and risk.”

“Richard’s Remarks”
Richard Russell, dowtheoryletters.com, 8/9/2013

But The Era of The Fed’s Creating Money from “Nothing” is soon coming to an end. That is because it has in the 100 years of its existence created so much Fiat Money that the Purchasing Power of the $US has been diminished by over 95% (See Deepcaster’s Free Report).

Thus, even if QE were stopped today, the Central Banks’ QE already in the System will ensure that The Major Climacterics which we have been forecasting will come to pass.

For one, we are on the Threshold of Price Hyperinflation already (with Real U.S. CPI, e.g., at 9.62% [See Note 1] contrary to Bogus Official Figures).

It is thus understandable that the private for-profit Fed and other Major Central Banks are, and have been for years, engaged in a campaign to discourage the use and holding of Real Money, Gold and Silver, by repeatedly suppressing their paper prices.

Gold and Silver are the Miners’ Canaries, as it were, signaling increasing Inflation. And a flight to Gold and Silver would increasingly devalue the Bankers’ Paper Fiat Currencies and Paper Treasury Securities.

But worldwide demand for Physical is rising, as reflected in increasing premiums for physical. This, of course, puts upward pressure on the Paper Spot and futures prices as reflected recently in the GOFO rate.

“What is unclear, is why GOFO rates continue to be negative (and are getting more negative). As we laid out over a month ago, it may be one of many things:

  • An ETF-induced repricing of paper and physical gold
  • Ongoing deliverable concerns and/or shortages involving one (JPM) or more Comex gold members.
  • Liquidations in the paper gold market
  • A shortage of physical gold for a non-bullion bank market participant
  • A major fund unwinding a futures pair trade involving at least one gold leasing leg
  • An ongoing bullion bank failure with or without an associated allocated gold bank "run"
  • All of the above

“One thing we do know that has changed since then, is that JPM's gold bullion holdings have slid to fresh record lows and JPM has been forced to scramble to procure gold from both HSBC and Scotia. Is there anything else going on behind the scenes? Absolutely (coughbundesbankcough), alas as usually happens in cases like this, we will learn the whole story after the fact. That's ok: we have lots of popcorn, and unlike those who rely on the JPM vault for storage purposes, our physical holdings are always at arms length.”

“Gold Collateral Situation: ‘It's Very Complicated’” ‘Tyler Durden,’ zerohedge.com, 8/9/2013

The foregoing points are all manifestations of the impending beginning of the collapse of the $US. Of course, as the $US and other Fiat Currencies lose Purchasing Power, Gold and Silver gain in price. Savvy Investors are thus acquiring Physical Gold and Silver and Taking Possession Now.

“Perhaps it is not terribly surprising to learn that recent silver demand numbers from India have set records.

“Indian silver imports are up a staggering 259% at 857 tonnes in the April-July time period.

“Perhaps at least some Indian investors are opting to buy silver as a temporary and cheaper alternative to gold given that their government has been attempting to thwart gold imports with tariffs. Of course, silver is easy to exchange for gold if and when necessary.

“This surge in Indian demand for silver parallels what can be observed from recent U.S. Mint data. Mint silver production surged once again in July and seems to be on pace for record annual sales…

“U.S. Mint rationing is also being reported by dealers…

“This grass roots demand for silver seems especially remarkable at a time where sentiment is at historic lows and just after one of the most brutal engineered market take downs ever witnessed has occurred.”

“Indian Gold to Silver Investment Demand” Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, silver-coin-investor.com, 8/10/2013

And the reports that the Comex is running out of physical and is within weeks of default have a basis in the evidence. Consider this 8.14.13 headline from seekingalpha.com:

“Comex Registered Gold Cover Ratios Hit Unprecedented Levels: Over 50 Claims Per Oz.”

And another indication of an impending Climacterics is that the interest rate on the U.S. 10 Year continues to climb even though Equities have a big down day (e.g., Dow down over 200 several times on 8/14/13 but the U.S. 10 Yr. yield was up to 2.78%.

Point: Long dated U.S. Treasury Securities are increasingly not seen as a Safe Haven Asset.

“I've warned that if there's to be trouble, it will show up in stocks, bonds (rates), the dollar or gold. I think we're seeing the early signs of trouble now -- in stocks and bonds and maybe, just maybe, in gold.”

“Richard’s Remarks”
Richard Russell, dowtheoryletters.com, 8/9/2013

Specific impending Climacterics: the U.S. Dollar will weaken vis à vis certain other currencies and Assets. Gold and Silver will launch up. The U.S. Treasury Securities bubble will Burst and most Equities will crash. And Hyperinflation looms.

Deepcaster has forecast the likely timing of the foregoing in his recent Letter and Alerts.

Central Bank QE has ensured that the foregoing are already baked into the Cake (as it were) of the Economy and Markets. Wise Investors are already preparing for these Climacterics.

Best regards,

Deepcaster August 15, 2013

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported August 15, 2013
1.36%     /     9.62% U.S. Unemployment reported August 2, 2013
7.6%     /     23.3%
U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported July 31, 2013
1.62%        /     -1.75%
U.S. M3 reported August 2, 2013 (Month of July, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     4.48% (e) (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.293 Trillion!)

 

 


The retail sector of the economy acts as a gauge of consumer spending. When the retail sector shows weakness, it means consumer spending isn’t as strong. If that becomes the case, economists assume the U.S. economy will perform poorly since consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).

As it stands, the retail sector is showing weakness and providing troubling news on consumer spending. According to Thomson Reuters, sales at retail stores open for at least a year increased a dismal 3.9% in July, below the analyst expectation of a rise of 4.4%. (Source: Reuters, August 8, 2013.)

A well-known name in the retail sector, Gap Inc. (NYSE/GAP), registered an increase of one percent in July same-store sales from July 2012. Analysts were expecting an increase of 1.7%.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ/COST) said its July same-store sales increased four percent from July 2012; analysts were expecting a rise of 5.1%. The company also stated that consumers are shying away from buying big-ticket items such as electronics.

In July, American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE/AEO) reported a decline of seven percent in its quarterly same-store sales, again compared to July 2012.

What’s even more troubling…to get those sales in July going, the retail sector had to offer deep discounts to customers.

July usually kicks of the back- to-school shopping season and gives us an idea of how consumer spending going into the fall season looks. After the holiday shopping season, the back-to-school season is the second busiest for the retail sector.

As it stands, the National Retail Federation (NRF) is already expecting lower spending in the retail sector on back-to-school goods this year. This trade association expects families with school-age children to spend $634.78 this back-to-school shopping season compared to $688.62 last year—a decline of almost eight percent. (Source: National Retail Federation, July 18, 2013.)

My question; how long can the optimism in retail stocks last while demand in the retail sector from consumers is falling? Sooner rather than later, the irrationality between the prices of retail stocks and what their growth prospects are will meet an unpleasant reality.

Michael’s Personal Notes:

Through its quantitative easing program, the Federal Reserve has created about $3.0 trillion in new money out of thin air. This was all in the name of getting consumer confidence in the U.S. economy going again.

Did this actually occur?

As it stands right now, consumer confidence in the U.S. economy is bleak and quantitative easing is failing on this front. Quantitative easing, as far as I’m concerned, has helped all those connected to Wall Street, has created another stock market bubble, and hasn’t helped the average American.

I’ve said it many times in these pages, quantitative easing won‘t be the factor that will increase consumer confidence. All we have to do is look at the Japanese economy and see what’s happened there. Quantitative easing didn’t work there…it didn’t boost consumer confidence.

In July, consumer confidence in the Japanese economy fell again. The index gauging the confidence of consumers registered at 43.6 in July—declining from 44.3 in June. Note: Any reading below 50 on the index suggests consumers are pessimistic. The Cabinet Office, which tracks the index, said the pace of consumer confidence is slowing. (Source: Reuters, August 9, 2013.)

We can see from the “Japanese Example” that quantitative easing doesn’t increase consumer confidence. If it did, then we would see its effect on the Japanese economy, as the central bank there has been printing money for some time now.

Just like the Japanese economy, quantitative easing here has caused the stock market to rally.

Now, once quantitative easing ends, if it ever does, it can be damaging to both the bond market and the stock market. I remain firm on that belief and recent mixed messages from the Federal Reserve have only cemented my conviction. Whenever we heard members of the Federal Reserve talking about the Fed tapering off quantitative easing, the stock market declined and bond yields soared.

If the money printing ever does end, it won’t be pretty for the markets.


LAUNCH-READY HOT SECTORS Overview

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

Key Sectors and Subsectors are poised to launch up in the next few weeks or very few months, depending on the sector.

Others will languish or crash.

However, very few of the Sectors poised to launch up soon are multi-year holds, because the Developing Trends in the Economy, Markets and Central Bank Policy (see our Forecasts) will likely not allow that.

In other words, “Buy and Hold” rarely works any more. However, they do offer Great Profit Potential in the short to medium term.

So we provide a brief and necessarily incomplete Overview of launch-ready Key Sectors and Subsectors. Of course, within each of these it is essential for iInvestors to intensively research the Sectors and prospective individual picks; and that also entails making decisions about setting target prices for exit.


Uranium

Japan is reactivating some of its nuclear reactors, China and others need to increase nuclear power generation to reduce coal-fired power generation to clean up the air.

But “Easy” Uranium Supplies are drying up. Russian sales of Fuel are Winding Down.

In short, Demand Up. Supply Down.

But the stock prices of suppliers are depressed, e.g., Cameco (CCJ) is down nearly 40% in 7 years.  


Oilfield Services & Equipment

The “Fracking Boom” in the U.S. and elsewhere is increasing demand for Oilfield Services and Equipment. Some companies working in the sector have already launched. But some are still in the Doldrums (e.g., Baker Hughes [BHI] 35% off its recent decade Highs.)

But with World Population increasing at 80 Million per year, and economies still growing (albeit more slowly than in pre-Crash years) Oil and Natural Gas demand will continue to Trend Upward.


Smart Energy

Energy Production and Transmission Infrastructure is aging and/or technologically outdated.

But energy demand is still increasing albeit more slowly in some areas. Even so, energy delivery and storage needs to be made smarter for greater efficiency and to accommodate multiple energy sources. Companies at the forefront of this “Smart Grid” technology like the one Deepcaster recently recommended selling at about 20 cents per share are likely to do very well. (See Note 2)  


Sector Long and Short ETFs

We have forecast two Major Moves in the Equities Markets occurring within the next six months (See our Forecasts).

Savvy Investors who position in advance of these moves can profit regardless of the direction of the moves.  


Precious Metals

Both the Precious Monetary Metals Gold and Silver, and Industrial Metals (e.g., Copper and Hybrids (e.g., Platinum) are poised to Make Major Moves in the next very few Months, as we have forecast.

But the Timing, Direction and Magnitude of these moves must be forecast on a Metal by Metal Basis.

That is mainly because of the character of the Demand for these Metals. For example, Gold is in demand mainly because it is Real Money. Silver is demanded as a Real Money and demanded (with fluctuations) by Industry, as is Platinum which is a Store of Value (but not typically Money) and Industrial Metal. Copper’s demand (with fluctuations) is as an industrial Metal.

Important Note: Unlike most of the other Sectors listed here, Gold and Silver are Excellent “Buy and Hold” Assets for the Long Term.


The U.S. Treasury Bond Market

Deepcaster and Many Independent and even some Main Stream media Analysts have correctly claimed that the thirty year Bull Market in long-dated U.S. Treasuries is over and that a Major Takedown (entailing higher Rates) is ahead.

But Triggers for the Bond Takedown (launch of Rates Upward) and the Timing of the Activation of those Triggers is Crucial here.

For example, it is entirely possible, and arguably probable, that the Comex will default on its obligation to deliver Physical Gold sometime in the next very few months (See our Forecasts). Such a Default could trigger a Bond (and Equities) Market Crash and aq Surge in the Gold Price.

Another Trigger would be a Visible Spike up in Price Inflation. Real U.S. Inflation is already a Threshold Hyperinflationary 9.4% (Shadowstats.com) but this is hidden by the Bogus (Shadowstats.com) Official Numbers. (See Note 1)

And there are Triggers which would strengthen U.S. Treasuries again, temporarily, e.g., Revived Eurozone Sovereign Crisis.

So that Key regarding Treasuries is that one must watch for and, as much as possible, anticipate, the arrival of the Triggers.


Emerging Markets – Selectively

Much out of favor until very recently, certain Emerging Markets are poised to Rally in the Short to Medium Term.

Two prime candidates for a Rally are China and Russia. As one indication that Quality Chinese stocks are undervalued consider that the Morgan Stanley China A Shares Fund (CAF) is down nearly 25% since the beginning of 2012. But recent Chinese data (e.g., increases in import/export numbers) indicates China continues to grow albeit not so rapidly as in recent years.

Regarding Russia, consider that the Market Vectors Russian Fund (RSX) is down about 15% just since Mid-March. Careful Stock Selection of Chinese and Russian stocks create profitable prospects.

Careful analysis of Macrotrends, Sector Trends, ongoing and likely Central Bank Interventions, Political Dynamics and of individual stocks should result in Wealth Enhancement.

Best regards,

Deepcaster August 9, 2013

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported July 16, 2013
1.36%     /     9.38%

U.S. Unemployment reported August 2, 2013
7.6%     /     23.3%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported July 31, 2013
1.62%        /     -1.75%

U.S. M3 reported August 2, 2013 (Month of May, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     4.48% (e) (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.293 Trillion!)

Note 2: We expect the next six months to be pivotal for several Key Sectors in the Markets. We expect some Sectors will hit all-time highs, and then Crash. Others should hit all-time highs and then keep rocketing upward. And we expect some just to begin to crash.

To Consider our Forecasts, read Deepcaster’s latest Alert, “Buy Reco!; 6 Month Forecasts: Equities, U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Crude Oil, Gold & Silver,” just posted in ‘Alerts Cache’ on Deepcaster.com.

And our Buy Recommendation in our latest Alert provides an Extraordinary Opportunity to Profit from a company with disruptive technology of Great use to the Energy Industry, now trading around 20 cents per share.


What Exactly IS "Too Big To Fail" ?

Posted by: EpluribusUNO

Tagged in: Untagged 

EpluribusUNO

According to a recent analysis by Thomas Hoenig, vice chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, using international accounting standards (rather than the accounting methods used by the banks themselves) for derivatives and consolidated mortgage securitizations, . JPMorgan Chase JPM , Citibank and Bank of America BAC  have become the three largest banks in the world. Together with Wells Fargo WFC, which has become the world’s sixth largest, assets of the four largest U.S. banks amount to an astonishing 97 percent of our 2012 Gross Domestic Product.

So, when the government says the economy is improving... does it mean the economy of those four banks, or the economy for the REST of us, represented by 3%?  IE: The PRODUCTIVE  economy, the farmers, the few manufacturers remaining in the US, the "under"-employed, the part time employed, etc.?

That we continue to keep our heads in the sand, and still give credence to anything the government says is amazing to me. There IS no more representative government in the United States!

We exist only to provide grist for the false fiat money mill of the Big Four Banksters and their inflated Wall Street Casino of stock market paper equities and unending layers of derivatives, amounting to 10 times the real global economy. When the house of cards falls, and the breathtaking extent of the fraud permitted by our inept politicians and their banking puppet-masters becomes known, the Second American Revolution will encompass more than throwing out the elite banksters. It endangers confidence in the entire government that sanctioned them. It will have collateral damage consequences well beyond merely rearranging our debt, or returning to a solid monetary system. The very structure of American Society and Government will be at risk.

Someone find a fiddle; Nerobama's ready to play.

~Epluribus

http://www.EpluribusUNO.wordpress.com      http://wp.me/p3Ertk-8I


Golden Sunrise Coming

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

“To combat depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about; because we are suffering from a misdirection of production, we want to create further misdirection – a procedure which can only lead to a much more severe crisis as soon as the credit expansion comes to an end.”

Friedrich Hayek, 1933


Gold Investors have suffered through nearly two years of Price Takedowns, as have the Gold Miners.

But a number of Developments in the Economy, Financial Markets and Mining Sector are coalescing and should impel Gold Prices to begin their launch up to new highs soon, despite ongoing Cartel (Note 1) Price Suppression attempts.

Here we focus on the Key Triggers which will determine the Timing of the launch.

One Key Trigger is Credit Expansion, as Hayek points out, which goes hand in hand with Monetary Expansion.

Credit Expansion, to Sovereigns and others around the world, will inevitably bring a Collapse upon itself. Bill Bonner explains

“…The US now operates on a type of money better suited to the Paleolithic Age. A credit-backed money system has never worked in the modern world… and none has ever survived a full credit cycle. The credits expand until the debt is far too heavy. Then, when interest rates rise, the cost of carrying the debt goes up until the system falls apart.

…We consider the plight of the average person. In 1950 the typical working man was able to support a family. Today he can barely support himself because the costs of his main expenses have gone way up. He has to work about twice as long to pay for a new car and a new house.

…How did the feds’ funny money system affect the average family’s wealth?

The Money Makers

We can begin by wondering what would have happened if the US had kept its pre-1971 money system. Then the amount of credit was limited. National accounts were settled in gold. Whatever the feds may tell you, when push comes to shove, it is gold we trust.

In 1971 France had accumulated more dollars than it wanted. Its clever chief economist, Jacques Rueff, urged the French to take their dollars forthwith to the US Treasury and demand gold. But after August 15, it was too late. The gold window had slammed shut. France had to keep its dollars and hope for the best.

Since US dollars were now the cornerstone of the international monetary system, they were in demand. The US dollar itself became America’s No. 1 export, with the highest margins of any export item ever produced.

Say’s Law, however, tells us that “products are paid for with products” – you have to produce things in order to be able to buy things. That is normally true. But not when you’re printing up the world’s reserve currency. Then you have the exorbitant privilege of needing only to produce “money.”

The factories that would normally have fabricated the products needed to buy other products from other people in other places decamped to other places themselves. Between 1978 and 2010, the Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us the that the US lost 78% of its workers in the garment industry, 69% of those in “primary metals,” 67% of those in the textile industry and 26% of those in “transportation equipment.”

To look at it another way, the accumulated trade deficit since 1971 is roughly $8 trillion. That’s how out of balance the products-for-products exchange has been.

The foreigners produce the products; Americans produce only money. Imagine that the labor component of the products is 50%. That means US workers have lost out on $4 trillion worth of income. Share that out among the entire male workforce and each one would be $80,000 richer. More importantly, had it not been for the wholesale loss of American manufacturing, Americans would now have more jobs and higher wages.

Credit-based money is easy money. And easy money easily becomes more debt. Debt impoverishes. It doesn’t make people richer.”

“What’s America’s No. 1 Export?,” Bill Bonner, Diary of a Rogue Economist, 08/01/2013


Bonner then goes on to explain, albeit indirectly, why the private for profit Fed (owned by Globalist Mega-Bankers) has fought so hard to avoid being audited and/or abolished.

Where Did the Money Go?

Then why do we have this credit-based money?

Because governments are essentially a way for the insiders (who control the police power of the state) to take power and money from the outsiders.

Bullion-based money is a natural limitation on the ability of the elite to rob the rest of the population. It’s relatively harder to fiddle with gold and silver coins than it is to mess with paper money....”

Ibid.


Deepcaster and Bonner agree that the Credit-Backed Money System until inevitably “Fall Apart.” The question is “When?” Deepcaster’s answer is “Soon.”

But consider that the anticipation of the Credit Money Systems’ Collapse will Ignite a Gold launch, because Gold, as Real Money, is the Antithesis of Fiat-Currency based Credit! That is why the “Smart Money” is already increasing, demanding delivery of Physical Gold. Consider:

  • Comex inventories of Physical are declining rapidly (reportedly about 2 months left at current drawdown rates), as are LBMAs.

  • Germany demanded its Physical be returned but is now getting only one-seventh per year.

  • The bullion banks are no longer net short Gold.

  • The Indian Central Bank/Government has taken ten steps to contain Gold demand, but (ironically) smuggling has now reportedly increased tenfold).

  • China, the world’s largest producer is dramatically increasing imports of Physical.

  • Gold has risen from the low $1200s to the low $1300s in the last month.

  • Gold futures are in backwardation (especially when increasing premiums for delivery of physical are considered, a signal of current supply shortages).

Of the foregoing, The Critical point is the increasing demand for Physical and Delivery of Physical, and the Prospective Inability of Comex, LBMA, and other Depositories, to actually deliver Physical Metal.

Another positive Trigger for a Gold launch is the (highly likely) continuation of QE (The Fed’s Buying Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities) into 2014 with no tapering (though they will likely talk tapering on occasion) and that should support Treasuries in its current Trading range for a few more months. But the long-term Trend for Treasuries is down, and, indeed, has already begun.

However, Continuing Fed-generated QE will likely become relatively ineffective in 2014 (or perhaps sooner) to support U.S. Treasuries. Non-U.S. Central Banks and Big Investors are already dumping U.S. Treasuries by the carload. Thus, at some point even The Fed will be unable to save U.S. Treasuries, which will than tank (Rates Spike).

And when Rates Spike (as they have already begun to do) that will be a visible sign Hyperinflation is upon us, and there will be an even greater rush to Gold. Indeed, Real U.S. Inflation is already Threshold Hyperinflationary at 9.38% (Note 2).

Then, interest rates for all credit transactions will rise dramatically. And that will likely be one Catalyst for our Forecast Equities Crash (see our recent Alerts for Timing and Forecasts). This is but one reason The Fed has no choice but to continue QE and to continue it until Hyperinflation collapses the $US; consequently Gold will skyrocket. Legendary Jim Rogers’ assessment is correct, “Run for the Hills.”

And The Crash will bring Defaults on Paper Assets. We already saw counterparty defaults on Paper Assets in the 2006-09 Crash, and we will see them again, as The Bond Market Crashes. Yet another Trigger for a Gold Launch.

And The Crash will lead to an even greater distrust of Wall Street and the Financial System. The public is already fed up with the Financial Services World’s shenanigans and immunity, thus far, from serious punishment.

“The nice thing about being in the financial services world is that you never really have to say you’re sorry. Screw over customers, botch foreclosures, run afoul of important regulations, and violate some important rules---and the worst you’ll have to do is pay some fines or settlements. It’s a cost of doing business…

Joshua Rosner, a financial analyst and co-author of Reckless Endangerment, in March, estimated that the company’s litigation expenses since 2009 have totaled $16 billion.”

“JPMorgan Chase’s Crazy Fine Tally”
Nina Strochlic, The Daily Beast, 05/08/2013


So consider how the Markets reflect the current state of the financial system including The Triggers for a Gold Price launch.

S&A Short report provides an overview

  • Interest rates are spiking higher.

  • NYSE margin debt is at an all-time high.

  • Investor Sentiment (a contrary indicator) – as measured by the AAII Sentiment Survey – is overwhelmingly bullish.

  • The Volatility Index is trading near its lowest level in six years.
    The Nasdaq Summation Index is in “nosebleed overbought” territory and is trading at its highest level in 10 years.

  • The bullish percent index for the S&P 500 is overbought.

  • The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages (DMAs) just turned down.

  • The daily and 60–minute charts of the S&P 500 have extensive negative divergences on both the MACD momentum indicators and the relative strength index.

And, we should add that a Bank of America Merrill Lynch study shows the Professionals have begun bailing from Equities while ‘Mom and Pop’ are buying, an indication of a Major Top.

In sum, the Markets and the “Triggers” signal the Gold launch is approaching ever closer (see Deepcaster’s August Letter and recent Alerts for Timing).

Finally, one last Trigger is already signaling a Gold launch is impending – the price of The Quintessential Inflation Asset, Crude Oil.

The recent elevated (over $100/bbl) Oil Price can be explained by considering the following: that Equities and Bonds are artificially elevated, Fiat Currencies are losing Purchasing Power due to ongoing QE, and many Commodities Prices are depressed until just now due primarily to China’s slowdown, and Gold & Silver Prices have been depressed by The Cartel (Note 1).

Therefore, only Crude Oil has been recently seen as a most reliable store of value to sophisticated Investors. Thus it is not surprising to us that WTI Crude has approached the $110 level recently notwithstanding the Economic slowdown. Part of this strength is due also to QE-generated Real Price Inflation, and to recently reported above-ground supply drawdowns.

Because Crude is essential, with relatively high inelasticity of demand, and because it gets used up, it is not easily subject to price manipulation though, for sure, its Price is manipulated. Thus a spiking Crude Price provides yet another Signal that Hyperinflation is impending, and thus a Gold Price Moonshot is impending.

Some week soon, The Cartel will no longer be able to sustain its Paper Gold Price Takedowns.


Best regards,

Deepcaster
August 2, 2013

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 2: Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported July 16, 2013
1.36% / 9.38%

U.S. Unemployment reported July 5, 2013
7.6% / 23.4%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported July 31, 2013
1.62% / -1.75%

U.S. M3 reported July 15, 2013 (Month of May, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 4.43% (i.e., total M3 Now at $15.198 Trillion!)

 


Meltdown Warning Signals

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

Meltdown Warning Signals

“Run for the Hills Now, I’m Doing It.”

Jim Rogers, CNBC.com (07/20/13)

When a Remarkably Successful Establishment (albeit a Rebel within) Investment Guru warns that He and We should “Run for The Hills” it is important to ask why?

Immediately leading up to, and for months after, the 2008-09 Financial Crisis, not only Independent Commentators but also MainStream Media commentators were Warning we were on the verge of Financial Collapse. And some quite reputable independent commentators still are issuing those Warnings.

So it is important to consider what the Main Warning Signals of an Impending Collapse would be, and how to Profit and Protect.

Indeed, we are already seeing some of those Signals sound such a Warning.

Consider the GEAB’s view and timeline:

“Historians will certainly consider the 2008 crisis as a warning shot before that of 2013.”

Global European Anticipation Bulletin, leap2020.eu

“-- end 2013, financial impact: collapse of financial markets especially in the US and Japan. Banks can no longer be saved by the states and BAIL-Ins are put in place;

-- end 2013 / 2014 spreading to the real economy: The financial impasse causes / reveals a major world recession and the reduction of international trade;

-- 2014, social impact: The economic deterioration causes unemployment to explode, in the United States the dollar's decline lowers the standard of living, riots mushroom everywhere;

-- 2014 political crisis: the governments of the most affected countries are under fire for their handling of the crisis, forced resignations and early elections are expected, if not coups;

-- 2014-2015, international management of the crisis: together Euroland and the BRICS impose a new international monetary system and lay down the basis of new global governance;

-- 2015: The least affected regions have exited the crisis definitively;

-- 2018: It will take the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan five years to purge themselves of the crisis with, ultimately, a greatly reduced standard of living and a considerable loss of global influence (resulting from their refusal to participate in the re-casting of global governance on new bases)."

Ibid.

And Goldmeister Jim Sinclair’s comment regarding the foregoing:

“I find no other source with which I agree more than GEAB.

I agree totally with the steps. My timing on the final step is more 2020 than 2018 with the USA, GB, and Japan taking seven years to purge the criminals that have gotten us to this point via OTC derivative frauds.”

“2013 Crisis To Trump 2008” Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com, 7/19/13

So consider what might cause this Course of Events to be realized. Two possible interrelated Triggers immediately come to mind. 1.) Major over-indebted Sovereign Nations are unable to pay their debts and thus repudiate them (at least partially) as Greece and Iceland have (de facto) already done. This would start a Cascade of Defaults and 2.) Major Central Banks’ ongoing QE generates visible intensifying Inflation (which exacerbates the debt problem because lenders and the markets consequently demand higher interest rates – Japan’s debt is already over 200% of GDP, e.g., and thus they cannot afford to pay much higher interest payments).

In this respect, one of the necessary conditions already appears on its way to being fulfilled. Threshold Hyperinflation is already with us – though Bogus Official figures seek to hide it.

In the U.S. for example, Real CPI bumped up from 8.99% to 9.38% from May to June 2013 (Shadowstats.com). Other Major Nations’ figures are notoriously unreliable also (e.g. China). (An Argentinean economist personally confided to us that Real Inflation in Argentina is 50% per year, even though the government will not acknowledge it.)

And QE is, if anything, increasing and it is highly likely it will continue to increase as we pointed out in a recent article. And that means Inflation will intensify, and that means increasing interest rates. As rates increase, Debts cannot be serviced and we have Greece writ large. So sudden interest rates spikes (such as we have seen recently in the U.S. 10-year) are one Signal of Impending Financial Collapse.

And there are others.

Another indication of impending Financial Collapse (indeed, probably The Primary Signal) would be a sudden Flight from, and dumping of, the World’s Reserve Currency, the U.S. Dollar.

The Fed’s Ongoing QE will generate such a Flight at some point – the only question is When? But we do not see such a Flight yet because many Major Fiat Currencies are simultaneously being debased by their Central Banks in the so-called Currency Wars. At some point these debasements will begin to be manifested in a spike up in commodity prices.

Indeed, we may already see the beginnings of that in the apparent bottoming of Commodities Prices. The CRB has moved up in the last two weeks. (See Deepcaster’s latest Forecasts.) The $US is still the least dirty shirt in the Fiat Currency laundry because of the (falsely) perceived relative strength of the US Economy.

As to U.S. Treasuries, their strength/weakness will, short-term, continue to be determined by “tapering” talk. If/when The Fed talks tapering, Treasuries will weaken, because Fed buying has artificially supported the Bond Market. Yet, out of the other side of their mouth they signal “more QE,” and that causes Treasuries to strengthen (yields fall).

N.B. : However, continuing Fed-generated QE will likely be useless at some point soon to support U.S. Treasuries. Non-U.S. Central Banks and Big Investors are already dumping U.S. Treasuries by the carload. Thus, at some point even The Fed will be unable to save U.S. Treasuries, which will than tank (Rates Spike).

In fact, they have no choice but to continue QE and that is what will actually happen until Hyperinflation collapses the $US… However, when continuing QE (i.e. Bond Buying) no longer serves to support Treasuries, i.e. to suppress Interest Rates, that will also be a signal that Financial collapse is impending, because that will signal The Fed has lost control of the Bond Market, and Interest Rates in the Broad Economy. That has not happened yet but will. (See our Forecasts.) (Some, including Rob Kirby, whom we respect, reportedly thinks The Fed can control the whole curve indefinitely through OTC Swaps and Forward Rate Agreements. But this omits Real World Developments, e.g. QE generated Price Inflation of Real Assets.) We already saw counterparty defaults on Paper Assets in the 2006-09 Crash, and we will see them again, as The Bond Market Crashes.

In sum, the position of the $US as the World’s Reserve Currency steadily weakens. Now Switzerland has joined the race to be the Yuan Trading Hub for Europe. And Canada pushes to be the Yuan Trading Hub for North America.

And we forecast that the Swiss Central Bank will not be able to keep its Franc pegged to the Euro many months more. If one were to choose a Good relatively “Safe Haven” Currency, the Swiss Franc would be one.

And yet another signal of impending Financial Collapse would be the collapse of one of the world’s too-big-to-fail Mega Banks, all of which are interrelated as counterparties on trillions of dollars of Derivatives and other Instruments. The prime candidate for collapse – Deutsche Bank.

The Fed and Bank of England can protect the American and English Mega Banks to a degree because they can print unlimited money. The Deutsche Bank has no such national currency printer/protection (Yet another Negative Consequence for Nations which relinquish National Sovereignty to Regional or Global Entities!) and DB is under increasing pressure from the LIBOR and other fraud allegations and investigation.

And there are reports DB has sold 60 thousand tons of allocated Gold certificates to clients. But who actually has the Physical Gold and how much do they have?

Other signals of Impending Meltdown would be signals that the Powers-that-be are seriously Distrusting each other, e.g.,

--the Overnight lending rate (i.e., among Banks) spikes

--Major Nations increasingly Distrust each other and/or the Mega-Banks

We have seen this already with Germany’s demand that its Gold be repatriated from U.S. based Fed Vaults, where it is allegedly stored.

--The Politicians who usually do the bidding of The Banking Cartel, begin not to do the bidding of the Banking Cartel due to pressure from their Rioting Constituents.

Another (Technical) Signal of impending Equities and Financial Collapse would be that Equities Prices hit all-time highs at the same time that prices technically hit the top of the multi-year Bearish expanding wedge (Jaws of Death) now forming and simultaneously that while stocks hit that all-time high, the NYSE advance/decline line does not.

This Bearish Divergence would warn that the Great Equities Crash (Wave 4 in our forecast) is about to begin, and that therefore a Financial Meltdown may well occur also. Such a collapse would likely also occur nearly simultaneously with an Equities Crash then also because the entire Financial system is more highly leveraged now than it was before the 2008 Crisis – more unpayable debt, bigger too-big-to-fail Mega Banks, much more Fiat currency in the system, etc. and no Effective Structural Reforms in place.

Today, we are moving toward that Wave #4 Scenario (see Deepcaster’s Forecasts re Timing).

Crude Oil

The recent elevated Oil Price (over $100 for WTI and Brent) can be explained by considering the following: that Equities and Bonds are artificially elevated, Fiat Currencies are losing Purchasing Power due to ongoing QE and Currency Wars, and many Commodities Prices are depressed (until just now) due primarily to China’s slowdown, and Gold & Silver Prices have been depressed by The Cartel (Note 1).

Therefore, only Crude Oil seems a reliable store of value to many sophisticated Investors. Thus it is not surprising to us that WTI Crude has already approached the $110 level notwithstanding the Economic slowdown. Part of this strength is due also to QE-generated Real Price Inflation.

Because Crude is essential, with relatively high Inelasticity of Demand, and because it gets used up, it is not easily subject to price manipulation though, for sure, its Price is manipulated to a degree. Thus a spiking Crude Price provides yet another Signal that Hyperinflation is impending and thus that a Crash may be near.

Of course Geopolitical Events (e.g. Wider War in the Mideast) could drive Crude Prices sky high at any time.

We reiterate that, notwithstanding “fracking,” the USA still has to import half its oil consumption, with increasing Import Demand coming from China, the Eurozone, and Japan as well. By the way, given even the most optimistic “Fracking” Production Projections, do not expect the USA to produce more than 60% to 65% of its own oil consumption, unless there is a Major Depression.

Key Point : Both rising U.S. Treasury yields and rising Crude Prices and the Real Numbers already tell us: Inflation is intensifying.  

Finally, regarding Gold and Silver Prices as Meltdown Indicators, consider that The Cartel took down Gold and Silver Prices dramatically in mid-April, and subsequently, mainly to protect the $US. But in the last two weeks Gold has risen from the low $1200s to the low $1300s, notwithstanding the fact that the Hedgies have gotten into the habit of selling Rallies.

In our view, the massive and intensifying Physical Demand is the likely catalyst for this development, and the associated strength in the HUI now up in the mid-200s from 200ish.

While The Cartel may be able to take Gold back into the $1200s (and Silver back under $20) it will likely not be able to do so for very many more weeks. The Demand for Physical is simply too great for both Gold and Silver, if even half the stories we hear about near exhaustion of LBMA and Comex vaults containing Physical are true.

Indeed, if the Depletion of Comex Inventories continues, it will have to go to a Cash Settlement Mode (as opposed to Gold Delivery Mode) in the next few weeks. This would launch Physical Gold Prices Sky High.

The Good news is that we expect that that Great Launch will Propel Gold up to $3000/oz with a proportionate rise in Silver beginning at Deepcaster’s forecast launch date. Therefore, prices at current levels still afford a Great Opportunity to buy Physical if one does not own ones full allocation of Physical. And many of the quality Miners are incredibly cheap with the HUI still trading not far above 250.

Skyrocketing Gold Prices are yet another sign of an impending Meltdown. Buy your appropriate Allocation of Physical and Quality Miners Now while they are cheap.

Best regards,

Deepcaster July 25, 2013

Note 1 : We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


Vladimir Putin: Dictator or Statesman?

Posted by: EpluribusUNO

Tagged in: Untagged 

EpluribusUNO

As US mainstream media increasingly tries to portray Putin ONLY as a Stalinesque dictator, this FASCINATING interview (without a Teleprompter or pre-determined questions) indicates he also happens to be a world-class intellectual, extremely well-read, and a statesman with a very refined sense of history, and sophisticated international perspective. I wish America had one that at least recognized how to wield governmental power and have a realistic perspective on Western hegemony. A dictator, certainly, but one to be reckoned with, with equal resolve, not platitudes. His impact on the world is by no means over.

(NB: that he answered the English question w/o interpretation).

It’s VITALLY important for Americans / Canadians to get their news from sources other than domestic drivel. RT is an excellent news bureau. I recommend it highly.

Putin: A Very impressive world-class leader, whether you condone his tactics or not; one to be reckoned with seriously, unlike the mouthpieces prevalent in the West. This interview is essential viewing (several times). I believe there is a growing dissatisfaction with the expanding American "empire" being imposed on the world in the wake of 9/11 "security" measures. Putin is not about to let either America or oligarchs he doesn't personally control, determine the future of Russia. One must know and study one's adversaries.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33oIF-ggK5U&w=560&h=315]

~Epluribus

http://www.EpluribusUNO.wordpress.com     http://wp.me/p3Ertk-6Z


Barrick Gold (ABX) the biggest loser or future winner?!

Posted by: Martin

Tagged in: Untagged 

Martin

Now that Barrick Gold (ABX) is hitting all time lows now sitting at about $16.15 on 7/19/2013 from a all time high of over $50 is it safe to say the bleeding is over? I feel there could be some more downward pressure in the near term but long term there does seem to be some light at the end of the tunnel.

Silver Wheaton (SLW) made a silver stream contract for part of the Pascua-Lama mine but the project was put on hold due to water issues. They probably will not go into full production of the mine until 2015-2017. If it even goes into production at all. This could affect Silver Wheaton but I don't see too much damage coming from it.

However given they are tied in with the corporatocracy they are sure to come out of this on top. I feel there could be some major gains in the future plus they pay a generous dividend. So you can realize some capital gains and reinvest your dividends for long term growth.

Most people think Barrick Gold will go bankrupt sometime in the near future and most of the sentiment out there is negative in regards to this mining company. If you look back during the 2008 crash they were hit hard but rallied back and I feel the same will happen when the prices in the precious metals turnaround for the better!

Disclaimer: I am a share holder of Barrick Gold (ABX)


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