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Opportunity Knocks via Market Realities

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“Gold/US$ has had a material seller stopping its advances each day, and yesterday that seller was strongly evident at the $1430-1435 level.

“We suspect that after a day or two of correction following that selling, the bulls will again gather their forces and trump the seller at $1430-1435. It may have to wait until next week, however, when the gold dealing desks are back at fuller staff.”

The Gartman Letter 08/29/2013

Even Dennis Gartman, not known to be a Gold Partisan, can recognize Investment-Significant Market Realities when he sees them:

1. Gold is now launching into a Bull Trend, but a

2. “material seller” has been “stopping its advances each day”

While he has not been so candid in identifying that “Material Seller” as The Cartel (Note 2) as Deepcaster and others have long ago, he does usefully make the point that:

3. Gold, even though launching into a Bull Ttend is still vulnerable to Takedown by that “Material Seller”

But the Takeaway Market Reality from all this is that it provides an Opportunity – we know Gold is going higher, so use the Takedowns as a Buying Opportunity.

But John Brimelow notes another Key Reality – that Gold surges UP are Driven by Investors Buying and Taking Delivery of Physical.

“Considering the disruption in the Asian physical markets this will take Western leadership if it is to happen so soon.”

 JBGI, 08/29/2013

Therefore, it is essential to Monitor Physical Buying as Deepcaster does in order to Buy at Opportune times.

And that Physical Buying may well not begin to surge again as early as next week (1 st week of September) because the Asian Markets – the prime source of demand for physical – have been temporarily disrupted by weak currency and tariffs in India and temporarily weakening demand in China. Bottom line Reality: We may expect a few down days in early September which should be regarded as an excellent Buying Opportunity.

Another most important Market Reality and Opportunity has been identified many weeks ago by Deepcaster and several other independent commentators --- interest rates have begun to Trend Higher with the interest rate on the US 10 year shooting up over 100 basic points recently. Consider Astute Trader Dan Norcini’s comments on the consequences of this Trend:

“Here is all one needs to know to explain why gold did what it did today:

The new home sales number showed the steepest drop in three years! Any questions?

What that translated to is very simple - Death to the Tapering! Long Live the QE Kings!

If that rotten July number was not bad enough, the insult to injury was the downward revision to the June number.

My view on this is simple - I have been posting charts of the Ten Year Treasury Note yield for some time now and have been remarking that it keeps pushing higher and higher and is closing in on that 3% mark. There is no way that rising interest rates in an environment in which salaries/wages are stagnant and job creation consists mainly of part time jobs is NOT GOING TO IMPACT HOUSING SALES.

I feel like I have been beating a dead horse but I repeat - the FED cannot be pleased with what has been going on in the Treasury markets because this entire phony "recovery" is predicated on one thing and one thing alone - CHEAP MONEY. Take that away and there is nothing else to support it.

The other side note to this is that these rising rates are going to significantly impact the US Federal Governments borrowing costs. When the national debt is over $17 trillion-gazillion-bazillion-whatever, and rising, even small rises in interest rates will have a significant impact to the nation's bottom line.

Bottom line - rising interest rates are a pox on the nation and on the economy and the Fed knows it.”

“Weak Housing Number Propels Gold Higher” Dan Norcini, traderdannorcini.blogspot.com, 8/23/13

Much of The Mainstream Financial Media has long encouraged a disconnect between underlying Economic, Financial and Market Realities and their Reportage and Forecasts.

Such a Policy of Disinformation and Spin was again undercut last week when the Release of a very Weak “New Home Sales” number gave the lie to the Fiction Propagated by the Mainstream Financial Media that “The Housing Market is Recovering”. And it was undercut again this week by a horrible July Durable Goods number which fell 7.3%.

Dan Norcini’s comment about why Gold launched up on 8/23 is Spot-on. [Since then Gold’s upward momentum has been bolstered by the USA’s publicized intention of attacking Syria but then reduced by the Realization that such an attack might not happen after all.] But the Mainstream Financial News Media Spin has been that the Economy is recovering and this Fiction has been supported by Bogus Official Statistics, (Note 1) while QE has, until now, boosted the Equities Markets artificially.

In order to protect Investors and provide Profit Opportunities, Deepcaster’s Goal always is to make its Forecasts and Investment Recommendation based on such underlying Realities as the foregoing rather than Mainstream Financial Media-Spin/Fictions.

Regarding Equities, for example, the Plain Truth is that while The Fed (and other Central Banks’) QE can artificially levitate Equities for a while (as they have been for most of 2013) the underlying Fundamentals eventually Trump the Levitation.

And so the lousy Fundamentals – e.g. stagnant wages, and persistent high unemployment and Negative GDP “Growth” per Shadowstats.com (Note 1) and recent lousy numbers out of the Housing Market – are now beginning to Trump the Fiction that The Economy is Recovering. But at some point (see our Forecasts) QE becomes ineffective in suppressing Interest Rates or Boosting the Equities Markets … and Equities Crash and The Bond Bubble Bursts.

It is important to reiterate that the Equities Market has been levitating solely on Fed provided QE. Trailing four-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 is $99.60 Y.O.Y. an increase of just 1%! But during that time the S&P Index is up 25% with a trailing P.E. of 16.9, 10% above the historical average. Earnings clearly do not support these Equities Indices levels, and the “Sell” signals now dominating the Technicals reflect that Reality.

Similarly, the prospects for a Great Launch Up in Gold and Silver and the Quality Miners Prices improve every week. Gold has convincingly closed above the $1400/oz. level and Silver has convincingly cleared $24/oz.

Gold’s bust out above the upper Boundary of its Bullish declining Expanding Wedge, is a Bullish Signal.

However, other Key Technicals indicate that Gold will not be in a confirmed bull market until it decisively clears $1500 and Silver $28/oz. Repeated closes above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1414 and then the 61.8% Retracement at $1510ish would add Momentum as well. And although they are looking peppy, the Miners need to clear 280 basis the HUI to clearly signal “Bull”.

So while now is still an excellent time to purchase Physical Gold and Silver and Quality Miners, we do still expect temporarily successful Cartel Takedown Attempts.

The Reality is the increasing demand for Physical is squeezing the shorts, and Paper Precious Metal Prices, and The Cartel.

As well, the decreasing likelihood of Tapering any time soon (or the continuation Tapering if once begun) due to lousy Real Economic Numbers (e.g. the recent drop in Home Sales) and the Mideast and the Upcoming Budget and Debt Ceiling Battles in the U.S. Congress. Means that Inflationary Money printing is likely to continue, thus futher bolstering Gold and Silver Prices.

All this explains the spikes up in price we are seeing and will increasingly see. It is a war between the Big Cartel Banks (to protect their Fiat Currencies and Treasury Securities) and Savvy Investors of all stripes who know Gold and Silver are Real Money.

In sum, though increasingly it looks as if the bottom is in and the Great Launch up for Gold and Silver and the Miners has begun, do expect Great Price Volatility and more Cartel Price Takedown attempts.

As well (considering the 10 yr. yield was bouncing around 100 basis Points lower just a few months ago) the Weakening of long-dated U.S. Treasuries has began and should continue for months as it eventually Morphs into a Bursting.

As this happens interest rates for all loan transactions should rise dramatically which will greatly constrain lending. And that will likely be one Catalyst for our Forecast Equities Crash (see our Forecast Timing). This is but one reason The Fed has no choice but to continue QE in some form (or to reinstate it, if temporary reduced) and to continue it until Price Hyperinflation and/or other factors are reflected in the collapse of the $US… Thus, when continuing QE (i.e. Bond Buying) no longer serves to support Treasuries, i.e. to suppress Interest Rates, that will also be a signal that a Financial Collapse is impending, because that will signal The Fed has lost control of the Bond Market. Such has not happened yet but we expect it will. N.B. We have already seen the beginning, with the 10-year yield rocketing up from 1.7% to 2.9%ish recently.

Significantly, Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management contends that the United States’ “falsification” of GDP, Inflation, and employment numbers is a sign that the U.S. Dollar is beginning to lose its World’s Reserve Currency status. (See Shadowstats.com for the Real Numbers. Note 1)

We agree. If all were healthy with the Economy, Markets, and U.S. Dollar, what need would there be to falsify the numbers?!

Finally consider Crude Oil.

War in the Mideast and continued Central Bank Money Printing and Crude Oil’s Status as Safe Haven Asset is not only keeping a floor under the Oil Price, but also boosting it.

While The Civil War in Syria is Tragically Quite Serious, it does not Threaten Oil Supplies much unless it widens.

The Civil War in Egypt has the Potential to Disrupt Oil Supplies and thus Spike prices, if it Threatens the Suez Canal.

Nonetheless, absent a Market Crash or other Major Deflationary Event, we can expect QE generated Monetary Inflation to keep WTI Crude Prices at or above $100 bbl.

As the yields on long-dated U.S. Treasuries (and thus interest rates in general) increase, this will signal increasing Price Inflation resulting from the past and ongoing QE Price Inflation. And of course this will mean (and has already meant) increasing Crude Oil Price Inflation, a sure Killer for Economic Health. In sum, Crude Oil trading above $100/bbl is not solely a result of Mideast Conflict. Indeed, given the Tightness of Crude Supplies Worldwide, the Primary Cause is arguably tight supplies.

In addition to tight supply, the recent elevated (over $100/bbl) Oil Price can be explained by considering the following as well as the Wider Mideast War Threat: that Equities and Bonds are artificially elevated, Fiat Currencies are losing Purchasing Power due to ongoing QE, and many Commodities Prices are depressed until just nowdue primarily to China’s slowdown, and Paper Gold & Silver Prices are temporarily depressed by The Cartel (Note 2), and long-term rates are headed up.

Therefore, only Crude Oil has been recently seen as a reliable store of value to many sophisticated Investors. Thus it is not surprising to us that WTI Crude has approached the $110 level recently notwithstanding the Economic slowdown. Part of this strength is due also to QE-generated Real Price Inflation, and to recently reported above-ground supply drawdowns.

Because Crude is essential, with relatively high inelasticity of demand, and because it gets used up, it is not as easily subject to price manipulation though, for sure, its Price is manipulated. Thus a spiking Crude Price provides yet another Signal that Hyperinflation is impending and thus that a Financial Crash is likely to be coming within 18 months or so, and likely sooner than later.

Consideration of the foregoing Market Realities provides Opportunities for Profit and Wealth Protection for Savvy Investors.

Best regards,

Deepcaster August 30, 2013

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported August 15, 2013
1.36%     /     9.62%

U.S. Unemployment reported August 2, 2013
7.6%     /     23.3%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported August 29, 2013
1.62%        /     -1.75%

U.S. M3 reported August 20, 2013 (Month of July, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     4.55% (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.304 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

 


Obama's Moment of Truth: World Statesman or 1st American Dictator?

Posted by: EpluribusUNO

Tagged in: Untagged 

EpluribusUNO

Senator Barack Obama (D-Il), then an Illinois state senator, delivered these remarks in Chicago, October 2002

I don't oppose all wars. What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war. What I am opposed to is the cynical attempt by Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and other armchair, weekend warriors in this administration to shove their own ideological agendas down our throats, irrespective of the costs in lives lost and in hardships borne.

What I am opposed to is the attempt by political hacks like Karl Rove to distract us from a rise in the uninsured, a rise in the poverty rate, a drop in the median income, to distract us from corporate scandals and a stock market that has just gone through the worst month since the Great Depression.

That's what I'm opposed to. A dumb war. A rash war. A war based not on reason but on passion, not on principle but on politics......

You want a fight, President Bush? Let's fight to make sure our so-called allies in the Middle East, the Saudis and the Egyptians, stop oppressing their own people, and suppressing dissent, and tolerating corruption and inequality, and mismanaging their economies so that their youth grow up without education, without prospects, without hope, the ready recruits of terrorist cells.

I also know that Saddam poses no imminent and direct threat to the United States, or to his neighbors...and that in concert with the international community he can be contained until, in the way of all petty dictators, he falls away into the dustbin of history.

I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences......

I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaeda.

Obama hasn't sent troops to Libya. He hasn't sent troops to Egypt. He didn't act on the Green Movement in Iran. He had to be persuaded 3 times to go after Bin Laden. He campaigned on bringing troops home from Afghanistan and Iraq, and did so. He opposed the surge in Iraq.

Obama is big on his belief that whatever he "says" will be enough to make it actually happen. Hence his "red line". He REALLY expected that would be all that was needed. He is, I believe, genuinely NOT in favor of putting US troops into foreign countries. That was one of his goals for "change".

He also knows that he has no chance of passing any domestic agenda if he commits troops to another country. He also probably figures that Israel is manipulating the pro-Israel normalcy bias, trying to force his hand, which he has had a continuing tendency to resist, from the beginning, despite attempts to smooth over. That stripe hasn't changed since his day one in office.

He does not want his legacy to be expanding wars against Muslim countries. In this, his gut feeling has been correct from the beginning. His naiveté in thinking his 'pronouncements' would have a real effect against entrenched US policy may be all he has left -- hope against hope.  Unfortunately, such blunders have consequences. He has put himself in a corner, and he will either have to play along or show America's incredible foreign policy hypocrisy.  He has been manipulated into this due to his lack of real experience. Conversely, he has the opportunity to show his personal integrity, if any. Who is Obama? What is he made of? What are his core beliefs? Until now, we do not know.

He is at THE critical stage of his presidency. How he handles this will determine many things:

    how many people die in Syria,
    how many American ground troops will die from gas in pre-Armageddon,
    the future of Arab Spring/ convergence of critical mass for emergence of Caliphate, the future of big-power resource wars in Century 21

He wanted the job. Now the world will see if he can handle it, and whether he can now legitimately earn his Nobel Peace Prize, or give it back.  It is at such moments that world leaders either become great or forgettable.  If they fail to rise to their moment in history, there are usually disastrous consequences for the world.

As for Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly made his position extremely clear, he will act aggressively in response to any overt move by America. Otherwise, HE will look like a paper tiger. He prefers to avoid such a move, because he holds yet-to-be-played financial "hole cards" he does not yet wish to reveal. He would prefer to act decisively when he has created a Machiavellian advantage WITHOUT conflict. I also believe that he wants Russia to act like the grown up, according to international law, rather than according to whatever the US wants.

His is not the blustering bravado of Soviet Russia, but his determination should not be underestimated. Russia has as much at stake in the Middle East as the West, and he will require that to be acknowledged before all the smoke settles. He will not be ignored without significant long-term consequences.

Well, Mr. Obama? Show us who you REALLY are. The stage is yours.  "You want a fight, Mr. President?"

~Epluribus

http://www.EpluribusUNO.wordpress.com                                       http://wp.me/p3Ertk-a4


Meltdown Coming?!

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster


“Our estimates of prospective risk are surging…

“At present, we have what might best be characterized as a broken speculative peak, in that market internals (particularly interest-sensitive groups), breadth and leadership have broken down uniformly following an extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndrome.

“If you recall, the market also recovered to new highs in October 2007, weeks after the initial, decisive break in market internals at that time. Presently, we’re looking at the same set of circumstances. On some event related to tapering or the Fed Chair nomination, we may even see another push higher. It isn't simply short-term risk, but deep cyclical risk that is of concern.”

John Hussman, Hussman Fund

There is increasing evidence that another Financial and Economic Meltdown is coming and that it will be worse than the one in 2008-2009. And even respected Financial Establishment Figures like John Hussman are beginning to go public with their concerns.

Indeed, perhaps The Main Indicator – The Greatest Bubble Asset – that a Great Meltdown is coming is already signaling it is launching.

Specifically, Savvy Investors, large and small, around the world, are already rushing to get out of the Greatest Bubble Asset ahead of the Bursting to Protect their Wealth. And those so-inclined are betting on the Bursting in order to Profit; thus Deepcaster’s recent Investment Recommendations have been made in anticipation of the likelihood of such a Meltdown.

But this impending Bubble Bursting is beginning to have a concatenating Ripple Effect throughout other major Markets. And eventually, sooner rather than later, the effect on virtually all markets, economies, and indeed, governments will be profound. Jim Willie explains what to expect.

“$$$Karen Hudes (formerly of World Bank) Refers to a Return to Order, and a Methodical Clean-up of the Criminal Bank Sector Being Tidy. It will not be Neat and Clean. Instead, Disorder will come by Storm. Escape Hatches Will Be Taken. External Force Will Soon Begin to Be Exerted from the East in More Obvious Ways.$$$

“…Her implication of a return to order in the next several years has no chance whatsoever of happening. Disorder has taken root and is spreading like wildfire, not the least factor of which is the rampant food price inflation in the rest of the world. Most emerging market nations have seen roughly a 30% food price inflation effect in the last six months from the USFed monetary policy action, seen as meted out in unilateral manner. The USGovt continues to make policy in foreign lands, to control SWIFT codes for banks, to block the pipelines, to permit drone aircraft to attack sites in Pakistan, to apply sanctions in trade, to urge governments like India to restrict gold sales, and to permit the big banks to operate with criminal impunity, while they continue to interfere with every conceivable financial market…. Be sure to know that the utmost respect is given Hudes for courage and forthright actions. But her views on a return to order are childlike….

“…So the West serves the bankers with welfare and toxic bond redemption, while the rest of the world suffers high cost to feed themselves and families. The stress within the system is unspeakable, and has already reached critical levels of stress for fractures, breakdowns, and collapse…. The East is scurrying to resist inflation, to install the USD alternative, to replace key portions of the financial structures…”

Hat Trick Letter, Jim Willie Goldenjackass.com, 08/21/2013

Regarding The Main Indicator that a Meltdown is coming, we are speaking of course of the Greatest Bubble in World Economic History, the multi-Trillion Dollar U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble. Consider the catalysts.

With a balance sheet of over $3 Trillion, The Fed cannot continue QE forever without risking Hyperinflation. Indeed, the U.S.A. is Threshold Hyperinflationary already with Real CPI at 9.4% per shadowstats.com (Note 1) mainly as a result of QE. But, given that the Equities and several other Markets are levitating mainly because of QE, The Fed’s mere talk of tapering is increasingly causing a Mass Exodus of private and Sovereign Investors from the U.S. Treasury Bond Market.

The recent Treasury TIC Data Release shows foreign holders dumped $40.8 Billion in June. And June was the third month of dumping in the last four, for a total of $79 Billion. China alone dumped $21.5 Billion and U.S. Ally Japan dumped $20.3 Billion. And Billions in FNMA and Freddie Mac Securities were dumped as well.

The Consequence has been that, over the past few weeks, long-dated U.S. Treasuries tanked, with yield on the 10-year shooting up over a hundred basis points to 2.9%ish.

And ominously earlier this week, the President had a meeting with the Heads of Key Agencies focusing on the Economy and the Markets.

Last time that happened, the Gold Prices were subsequently taken down by over $200 in a couple of days. (Was the Bank of England’s recent revelation of a huge discrepancy in Gold Custody Reports evidence that 1,300 Tonnes of English Gold were used in the April price Takedown? What other explanation is credible?!) Intensifying Cartel (Note 2) attempts at Gold and Silver Price Suppression is evidence of increasing concern a Meltdown is approaching.

Knowledgeable commentators, including John Embry of the Wealthy Sprott Group, speculate (unfortunately, because their speculations are likely more Probability than Speculation) that:

  • an Historic Collapse and Meltdown, may be Imminent, likely because, inter alia,
  • Rising Interest Rates are Devastating in this highly over-levered economy, because, inter alia,
  • $Trillions in Interest Rates Derivatives could implode, sending
  • Real Interest Rates and Oil Prices Sky High, causing
  • a Meltdown which seriously Wounds the Economy, and generates counter party defaults.

Consider what is already happening with the U.S. Dollar and long-dated U.S. Treasury Securities.

Normally, rising rates generate strength for a currency since relative Interest Rates and Purchasing Power (via e.g., the Big Mac Burger price comparison) Parity are two key determinants of a currency’s strength. But increasing Foreign Dumping of U.S. Treasury Paper signals the beginning of a move away from the U.S. Dollar and signals increased dumping of U.S. Dollar dominated Assets is to come soon also. Only the Depreciation of other Fiat Currencies and Fed QE has, thus far, prevented the $US dumping from becoming a Rout.

As the dumping increases, ever higher rates will be generated to justify the increased risk of holding U.S. Treasuries. And, mid-to-long term, the $US will move ever lower and then catastrophically lower.

Short-term, however, since the USA is still (but not for long) perceived as the strongest economy vis-à-vis both the Eurozone and Emerging Markets, the $US should remain in the 80-84ish trading range basis USDX.

And U.S. Treasuries, per the 10-year, should continue to trade, short-term, somewhat higher in the 2.6% to 3% yield range, short-term. It is highly likely the Fed will continue QE into 2014 with little or no tapering (though they have and will likely continue to talk tapering on occasion) and that should (but not certainly) support Treasuries in this range for a few more weeks or very few months. But the long-term Trend for the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasuries is down, as U.S. Treasuries are a Most Massive “Asset” Bubble ever. Thus Deepcaster has and will continue to forecast when The Takedown of the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasury Securities will begin to accelerate.

It is very important to Note that continuing Fed-generated QE will likely become relatively ineffective as we approach and move into 2014. And, as Embry points out, there are already signals that it is already becoming less effective in supporting U.S. Treasuries. Non-U.S. Central Banks and Big Investors are already dumping U.S. Treasuries by the carload. Thus, at some week or month soon even The Fed will be unable to save U.S. Treasuries, which will then really tank (Rates Spike).

“What’s the “deep cyclical risk” Hussman is talking about?

“It’s the risk of a market that has been bubbled up due too much cheap credit. Like any bubble, it floats around until it finds its pin….

“Ordinary people have come to think that Wall Street is there to help them make money. Progress, prosperity and rising asset prices – now and everlasting. Amen. …

“These beliefs are tested. There are setbacks. Shocks. And brief corrections.

“But if these are overcome quickly enough, say by Fed policy, a kind of blind faith takes hold. Investors begin to believe the impossible.

“Now, for example, investors think the Fed “will not allow” a serious correction.

“It should be pointed out, tout de suite , that the Fed can influence the markets. But it does not control them. And the more it influences them, the harder they are to control.

“Why?

“Investors trust the Fed to protect their money... just as the Fed makes their investments less trustworthy! Because the more influence the Fed exerts over prices, the farther they move away from where they ought to be.(emphasis added)

“If the Fed offers makes credit too cheap for too long, for example, stock prices adjust…and soon become higher than they should be. At some point, they are so high – and so far removed from solid values – that the proud tower wobbles, and then collapses, regardless of what the Fed is doing .

And based on what’s happening in the bond market, it appears as though the Fed has already lost control….” (emphasis added)

“CRASH ALERT!” Bill Bonner
Diary of a Rogue Economist, 08/22/2013

Important Warning! : If (when) the Yield on the U.S. 10-year T-Note closes decisively above 3%, the Crash of the U.S. Treasuries Market will likely have begun.

In that event, interest rates for all loan transactions will rise dramatically which will greatly constrain lending. And that will likely be one Catalyst for our Forecast Equities Crash. This is but one reason The Fed has no choice but to continue QE in some form and to continue it until PriceHyperinflation and/or other factors are reflected in the collapse of the $US… Thus, when continuing QE (i.e. Bond Buying) no longer serves to support Treasuries, i.e. to suppress Interest Rates, that will be another signal that Financial Collapse is impending, because that will signal The Fed has lost control of the Bond Market. Such has not definitely happened just yet but we expect it will. N.B. We have already seen the beginning, with the 10-year yield rocketing up from 1.7% to 2.9%ish recently. (Some, including Rob Kirby, whom we respect, think The Fed can control the whole curve indefinitely through OTC Swaps and Forward Rate Agreements. We disagree, because this omits Real World Developments, e.g. QE generated Price Inflation of Real Assets.) We already saw counterparty defaults on Paper Assets in the 2006-09 Crash, and we will see them again, as The Bond Market and the Multi-Hundred Trillion Dollar Derivatives Superstructure Crashes in 2014, or earlier.

Also important to note is that Bogus Official Statistical Data has been used to Conceal Signals of an Impending Meltdown.

Significantly, Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management contends that the United States’ “falsification” of GDP, Inflation, and employment numbers is a sign that the U.S. Dollar is beginning to lose its World’s Reserve Currency status. (See Shadowstats.com for the Real Numbers. Note 1)

We agree. If all were healthy with the Economy, Markets, and U.S. Dollar, what need would there be to falsify the numbers?!

As the yields on long-dated U.S. Treasuries (and thus interest rates in general) increase, this will signal increasing Price Inflation resulting from the past and ongoing QE Price Inflation. And of course this will mean (and has already meant) increasing Crude Oil Price Inflation, a sure Killer for Economic Health. Crude Oil trading above $100/bbl is not solely a result of Mideast Conflict concerns.

Interestingly, Key Technicals are showing a short to mid-term price target for WTI. Crude of $150/bbl or more! This is consistent with an Equities blow-off top which we forecast and then an Equities and Bond Market collapse.

We reiterate, the recent elevated (over $100/bbl) Oil Price can be explained by considering the following: that Equities and Bonds are artificially elevated, Fiat Currencies are losing Purchasing Power due to ongoing QE, and many Commodities Prices are depressed until just now due primarily to China’s slowdown, and Paper Gold & Silver Prices are depressed by The Cartel, and long-term rates are headed up.

Therefore, only Crude Oil has been recently seen as a reliable store of value to many sophisticated Investors. Thus it is not surprising to us that WTI Crude has approached the $110 level recently notwithstanding the Economic slowdown. Part of this strength is due also to QE-generated Real Price Inflation, and to recently reported above-ground supply drawdowns.

Because Crude is essential, with relatively high inelasticity of demand, and because it gets used up, it is not as easily subject to price manipulation though, for sure, its Price is manipulated. Thus a spiking Crude Price provides yet another Signal that Hyperinflation is impending and thus that a Financial Crash is likely to be coming within 18 months or so, and likely sooner than later.

Seeing more Inflation and Financial Crises on the horizon, plus a diminishing of the Purchasing Power of the $US and other Fiat Currencies, the truly “smart” money – sophisticated investors and some Mega-Banks – are intensifying their buying and taking delivery of Physical Gold and Silver. Despite the Cartel Banks’ ongoing attempts to suppress Gold and Silver prices (e.g. via the repeatedly increased tariffs imposed by the Indians) the increasing demand for Physical is squeezing the shorts, and Paper Prices, and The Cartel.

This explains the spikes up in price we are seeing and will increasingly see. It is a war between the Big Cartel Banks (to protect the decreasing Legitimacy of their Fiat Currencies and Treasury Securities), and Savvy Investors of all stripes.

Regarding Equities, The Fed’s tapering (even if somewhat reduced in September – possible, but not likely to be sustained) should continue to buoy the Equities Markets up for a few weeks or very few months more until The Great Crash. (Cf. Deepcaster’s forecasts.)

In sum, though increasingly it looks as if the bottom is nearly in for Gold, Silver, and the Miners, do expect Great Price Volatility and more Cartel Price Takedown attempts.

Physical Gold and Silver held in your personal possession, and Quality Miners stocks are Investors’ best Assets to hold for Protection and Profit to prepare for The Coming Meltdown.

“In times of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”  

George Orwell

Best regards,

Deepcaster
August 23, 2013

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported August 15, 2013
1.36%     /     9.62%

U.S. Unemployment reported August 2, 2013
7.6%     /     23.3%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported July 31, 2013
1.62%        /     -1.75%

U.S. M3 reported August 20, 2013 (Month of July, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     4.55% (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.304 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


MUST We ????

Posted by: EpluribusUNO

Tagged in: Untagged 

EpluribusUNO

If Bashar Assad really has used chemical weapons on his own people in a big way, America MUST intervene" - Headline in The Economist Aug 22 2013

"Must"...

Days after arrival of a UN inspection team, now on the ground in Syria, ready to inspect earlier reports of chemical weapons use, new reports claim 1300 new dead, without visible trauma.

A year ago this week, President Obama said that use of chemical weapons by Assad would be a game changer for direct US involvement in the civil war.

According to Vladimir Putin, sarin gas use has an equal potential to be used by the Al Queda-backed rebels to trigger American involvement.

Without disputing the tragedy of 1300 people in a Damascus suburb being gassed by sarin, does it make sense that Assad would be the one to risk the apparently SOLE action that would bring the US into the war against him? He has managed to maintain the upper hand for a full year since Obama's announcement without using gas and avoiding the inevitable fate of Libya's Moammar Ghadaffi. Why would he do it now while there are inspectors readily available to become the authoritative accusers against him?

The rebels, those of 'eat the heart of your enemy on TV" fame, have made no progress in a year, unless destroying a large part of the economy and infrastructure of Syria can be considered progress. Perhaps they need to stage a real or 'made for youtube' gas attack to get some desperately needed help for their cause.

The time has come to question EVERYTHING that the media reports not as fact, but as propaganda intended to persuade the public to a pre-determined opinion or to anesthetize them with contradicting exposures. There are no independent, trustworthy, authoritative sources able to confirm or deny whether such attacks actually happened, and if so, who perpetrated them. Or is it just one more "Wag the Dog" scenario being played out here, simultaneous to so many in Egypt?  Is there ANY trustworthy journalism LEFT in the world media? Or is everything now propaganda with a purpose?

I think there is likely very little confusion in the real agenda playing out in the Middle East, which may have little to do with the sideshow on the ground. There is a long term geopolitical process continuing in the region, about Big Power spheres of influence and long-term control of increasingly scarce oil/energy for the latter half of the 21st century.  It began prior to World War 1. Regional history since then, and since the discovery of the world's primary oil reserve, have just been a sequence of moves on a chessboard.

Israel, Palestine, Algeria, Suez, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Arab Spring... Move, countermove.

Jew, Arab, Muslim, Shiite, Sunni... bluff, counterbluff.

None of the on-ground tragedy is relevant to the manipulators of these events. People on both sides are expendable, and it matters not whether gas was used against established political and moral convention. If the gas attack is true, it is a tactic. Whether true or not, media coverage is also a tactic. By whom, for what is yet to be seen.

The stakes are much greater here, and no one is backing down. Timing is important here. This a proxy for the real events to come. Is it coincidence that the world's monetary system is now more precarious than in 2007-8? All Mideast countries having upheavals simultaneously? Is this all building to a crescendo? Or is that just what we are supposed to think?

China, America and Russia are laying the groundwork for the next (strategic economic) world war, maneuvering for control over the essential resources of Central Asia and Africa. The battle grounds are in the worlds commodity markets, Central Banks, and geo-political flashpoints played out by surrogates, who have been duped not to see themselves as pawns. If there are Syrian rebels, troops, or civilian women and children who are foaming at the mouth, writhing in asphyxiation, and dying a horrible death this week, they are just the latest collateral damage caught in the crossfire.

The 'stage' has been literally 'set' so that America not only 'should' intervene, but now we "MUST"!

Is this the Pearl Harbor of Armageddon? And is it a real or staged media creation designed solely to CONVINCE us we "MUST", so that we don't consider "Who WANTS it and WHY?

~Epluribus

http://www.EpluribusUNO.wordpress.                                           http://wp.me/p3Ertk-9w


 

 

When gold failed to hold above $1,800, I became skeptical. The stock market was on fire, so why would anyone want to buy gold, as the easy money was already made? Then we saw spot prices fall below $1,700, $1,600, and then $1,500…when I turned bearish. (Read “Is Gold’s Near-Death Crisis Over-Exaggerated? Concerns of a Market Meltdown May Not Be.”)

Well, fast-forward four months, and I continue to be neutral-to-bearish. I just don’t see any point buying the precious metal at this time: there’s minimal inflation and the world is not going to blow up anytime soon, plus you have so much money funneled into stocks.

When gold broke below $1,300 towards $1,200, I suggested traders buy on the dip, but also sell on rallies. That’s still my contention at this point; with the spot price at $1,326, I would not be a buyer. Now, if the yellow ore fell below $1,300, I would consider buying as a trade.

If I’m wrong, then so are investment gurus John Paulson and George Soros, who are running for the exits and divesting a major portion of their gold holdings. According to filings from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the SPDR Gold Trust run by Paulson sold off over half of its gold holdings in the second quarter. I simply wouldn’t be betting against these two.

The global demand is also at a four-year low, according to the World Gold Council. The organization attributed the decline to investors selling bullion funds and lower buying by the world central bankers. (Source: Harvey, J. “Gold demand hits 4-year low as investors pull out – WGC,” Reuters web site, August 15, 2013.)

When I look at the chart, I cannot say there is any optimism. After a series of multiple tops at $1,800 in 2011 and 2012, the metal has been sliding as I discussed.

The chart shows some support, but I believe prices could falter again towards the next Fibonacci Level, at around $1,210. Goldman Sachs has a $1,200 target on gold; failing to hold here, the metal could slide to around $1,050.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Whatever the situation, I still see more downside risk than upside potential, based on my technical analysis. The supporters will tell you how the metal is limited and how you need to accumulate positions. While I do agree with this, I just don’t feel it’s that time just yet.


Climacterics Coming – Prepare!

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster


“The whole concept of creating money without toil or risk is an integral province of the Federal Reserve. I believe that one way or another, the Federal Reserve and all it stands for will be eliminated. The process by which this will occur worries me. I believe it will take a huge disruption of our current economic system in order to eliminate the Federal Reserve and its immoral process of money being created out of a computer and thin air.

“The process of creating money from “nothing” makes a mockery of real work of all kinds. Thus, by inference, I am calling the Federal Reserve an evil institution. The more so, since it denigrates gold, which is, and has always been, true wealth, wrung out of the earth through man’s sweat and toil and risk.”

“Richard’s Remarks”
Richard Russell, dowtheoryletters.com, 8/9/2013

But The Era of The Fed’s Creating Money from “Nothing” is soon coming to an end. That is because it has in the 100 years of its existence created so much Fiat Money that the Purchasing Power of the $US has been diminished by over 95% (See Deepcaster’s Free Report).

Thus, even if QE were stopped today, the Central Banks’ QE already in the System will ensure that The Major Climacterics which we have been forecasting will come to pass.

For one, we are on the Threshold of Price Hyperinflation already (with Real U.S. CPI, e.g., at 9.62% [See Note 1] contrary to Bogus Official Figures).

It is thus understandable that the private for-profit Fed and other Major Central Banks are, and have been for years, engaged in a campaign to discourage the use and holding of Real Money, Gold and Silver, by repeatedly suppressing their paper prices.

Gold and Silver are the Miners’ Canaries, as it were, signaling increasing Inflation. And a flight to Gold and Silver would increasingly devalue the Bankers’ Paper Fiat Currencies and Paper Treasury Securities.

But worldwide demand for Physical is rising, as reflected in increasing premiums for physical. This, of course, puts upward pressure on the Paper Spot and futures prices as reflected recently in the GOFO rate.

“What is unclear, is why GOFO rates continue to be negative (and are getting more negative). As we laid out over a month ago, it may be one of many things:

  • An ETF-induced repricing of paper and physical gold
  • Ongoing deliverable concerns and/or shortages involving one (JPM) or more Comex gold members.
  • Liquidations in the paper gold market
  • A shortage of physical gold for a non-bullion bank market participant
  • A major fund unwinding a futures pair trade involving at least one gold leasing leg
  • An ongoing bullion bank failure with or without an associated allocated gold bank "run"
  • All of the above

“One thing we do know that has changed since then, is that JPM's gold bullion holdings have slid to fresh record lows and JPM has been forced to scramble to procure gold from both HSBC and Scotia. Is there anything else going on behind the scenes? Absolutely (coughbundesbankcough), alas as usually happens in cases like this, we will learn the whole story after the fact. That's ok: we have lots of popcorn, and unlike those who rely on the JPM vault for storage purposes, our physical holdings are always at arms length.”

“Gold Collateral Situation: ‘It's Very Complicated’” ‘Tyler Durden,’ zerohedge.com, 8/9/2013

The foregoing points are all manifestations of the impending beginning of the collapse of the $US. Of course, as the $US and other Fiat Currencies lose Purchasing Power, Gold and Silver gain in price. Savvy Investors are thus acquiring Physical Gold and Silver and Taking Possession Now.

“Perhaps it is not terribly surprising to learn that recent silver demand numbers from India have set records.

“Indian silver imports are up a staggering 259% at 857 tonnes in the April-July time period.

“Perhaps at least some Indian investors are opting to buy silver as a temporary and cheaper alternative to gold given that their government has been attempting to thwart gold imports with tariffs. Of course, silver is easy to exchange for gold if and when necessary.

“This surge in Indian demand for silver parallels what can be observed from recent U.S. Mint data. Mint silver production surged once again in July and seems to be on pace for record annual sales…

“U.S. Mint rationing is also being reported by dealers…

“This grass roots demand for silver seems especially remarkable at a time where sentiment is at historic lows and just after one of the most brutal engineered market take downs ever witnessed has occurred.”

“Indian Gold to Silver Investment Demand” Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, silver-coin-investor.com, 8/10/2013

And the reports that the Comex is running out of physical and is within weeks of default have a basis in the evidence. Consider this 8.14.13 headline from seekingalpha.com:

“Comex Registered Gold Cover Ratios Hit Unprecedented Levels: Over 50 Claims Per Oz.”

And another indication of an impending Climacterics is that the interest rate on the U.S. 10 Year continues to climb even though Equities have a big down day (e.g., Dow down over 200 several times on 8/14/13 but the U.S. 10 Yr. yield was up to 2.78%.

Point: Long dated U.S. Treasury Securities are increasingly not seen as a Safe Haven Asset.

“I've warned that if there's to be trouble, it will show up in stocks, bonds (rates), the dollar or gold. I think we're seeing the early signs of trouble now -- in stocks and bonds and maybe, just maybe, in gold.”

“Richard’s Remarks”
Richard Russell, dowtheoryletters.com, 8/9/2013

Specific impending Climacterics: the U.S. Dollar will weaken vis à vis certain other currencies and Assets. Gold and Silver will launch up. The U.S. Treasury Securities bubble will Burst and most Equities will crash. And Hyperinflation looms.

Deepcaster has forecast the likely timing of the foregoing in his recent Letter and Alerts.

Central Bank QE has ensured that the foregoing are already baked into the Cake (as it were) of the Economy and Markets. Wise Investors are already preparing for these Climacterics.

Best regards,

Deepcaster August 15, 2013

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported August 15, 2013
1.36%     /     9.62% U.S. Unemployment reported August 2, 2013
7.6%     /     23.3%
U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported July 31, 2013
1.62%        /     -1.75%
U.S. M3 reported August 2, 2013 (Month of July, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     4.48% (e) (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.293 Trillion!)

 

 


The retail sector of the economy acts as a gauge of consumer spending. When the retail sector shows weakness, it means consumer spending isn’t as strong. If that becomes the case, economists assume the U.S. economy will perform poorly since consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).

As it stands, the retail sector is showing weakness and providing troubling news on consumer spending. According to Thomson Reuters, sales at retail stores open for at least a year increased a dismal 3.9% in July, below the analyst expectation of a rise of 4.4%. (Source: Reuters, August 8, 2013.)

A well-known name in the retail sector, Gap Inc. (NYSE/GAP), registered an increase of one percent in July same-store sales from July 2012. Analysts were expecting an increase of 1.7%.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ/COST) said its July same-store sales increased four percent from July 2012; analysts were expecting a rise of 5.1%. The company also stated that consumers are shying away from buying big-ticket items such as electronics.

In July, American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE/AEO) reported a decline of seven percent in its quarterly same-store sales, again compared to July 2012.

What’s even more troubling…to get those sales in July going, the retail sector had to offer deep discounts to customers.

July usually kicks of the back- to-school shopping season and gives us an idea of how consumer spending going into the fall season looks. After the holiday shopping season, the back-to-school season is the second busiest for the retail sector.

As it stands, the National Retail Federation (NRF) is already expecting lower spending in the retail sector on back-to-school goods this year. This trade association expects families with school-age children to spend $634.78 this back-to-school shopping season compared to $688.62 last year—a decline of almost eight percent. (Source: National Retail Federation, July 18, 2013.)

My question; how long can the optimism in retail stocks last while demand in the retail sector from consumers is falling? Sooner rather than later, the irrationality between the prices of retail stocks and what their growth prospects are will meet an unpleasant reality.

Michael’s Personal Notes:

Through its quantitative easing program, the Federal Reserve has created about $3.0 trillion in new money out of thin air. This was all in the name of getting consumer confidence in the U.S. economy going again.

Did this actually occur?

As it stands right now, consumer confidence in the U.S. economy is bleak and quantitative easing is failing on this front. Quantitative easing, as far as I’m concerned, has helped all those connected to Wall Street, has created another stock market bubble, and hasn’t helped the average American.

I’ve said it many times in these pages, quantitative easing won‘t be the factor that will increase consumer confidence. All we have to do is look at the Japanese economy and see what’s happened there. Quantitative easing didn’t work there…it didn’t boost consumer confidence.

In July, consumer confidence in the Japanese economy fell again. The index gauging the confidence of consumers registered at 43.6 in July—declining from 44.3 in June. Note: Any reading below 50 on the index suggests consumers are pessimistic. The Cabinet Office, which tracks the index, said the pace of consumer confidence is slowing. (Source: Reuters, August 9, 2013.)

We can see from the “Japanese Example” that quantitative easing doesn’t increase consumer confidence. If it did, then we would see its effect on the Japanese economy, as the central bank there has been printing money for some time now.

Just like the Japanese economy, quantitative easing here has caused the stock market to rally.

Now, once quantitative easing ends, if it ever does, it can be damaging to both the bond market and the stock market. I remain firm on that belief and recent mixed messages from the Federal Reserve have only cemented my conviction. Whenever we heard members of the Federal Reserve talking about the Fed tapering off quantitative easing, the stock market declined and bond yields soared.

If the money printing ever does end, it won’t be pretty for the markets.


LAUNCH-READY HOT SECTORS Overview

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

Key Sectors and Subsectors are poised to launch up in the next few weeks or very few months, depending on the sector.

Others will languish or crash.

However, very few of the Sectors poised to launch up soon are multi-year holds, because the Developing Trends in the Economy, Markets and Central Bank Policy (see our Forecasts) will likely not allow that.

In other words, “Buy and Hold” rarely works any more. However, they do offer Great Profit Potential in the short to medium term.

So we provide a brief and necessarily incomplete Overview of launch-ready Key Sectors and Subsectors. Of course, within each of these it is essential for iInvestors to intensively research the Sectors and prospective individual picks; and that also entails making decisions about setting target prices for exit.


Uranium

Japan is reactivating some of its nuclear reactors, China and others need to increase nuclear power generation to reduce coal-fired power generation to clean up the air.

But “Easy” Uranium Supplies are drying up. Russian sales of Fuel are Winding Down.

In short, Demand Up. Supply Down.

But the stock prices of suppliers are depressed, e.g., Cameco (CCJ) is down nearly 40% in 7 years.  


Oilfield Services & Equipment

The “Fracking Boom” in the U.S. and elsewhere is increasing demand for Oilfield Services and Equipment. Some companies working in the sector have already launched. But some are still in the Doldrums (e.g., Baker Hughes [BHI] 35% off its recent decade Highs.)

But with World Population increasing at 80 Million per year, and economies still growing (albeit more slowly than in pre-Crash years) Oil and Natural Gas demand will continue to Trend Upward.


Smart Energy

Energy Production and Transmission Infrastructure is aging and/or technologically outdated.

But energy demand is still increasing albeit more slowly in some areas. Even so, energy delivery and storage needs to be made smarter for greater efficiency and to accommodate multiple energy sources. Companies at the forefront of this “Smart Grid” technology like the one Deepcaster recently recommended selling at about 20 cents per share are likely to do very well. (See Note 2)  


Sector Long and Short ETFs

We have forecast two Major Moves in the Equities Markets occurring within the next six months (See our Forecasts).

Savvy Investors who position in advance of these moves can profit regardless of the direction of the moves.  


Precious Metals

Both the Precious Monetary Metals Gold and Silver, and Industrial Metals (e.g., Copper and Hybrids (e.g., Platinum) are poised to Make Major Moves in the next very few Months, as we have forecast.

But the Timing, Direction and Magnitude of these moves must be forecast on a Metal by Metal Basis.

That is mainly because of the character of the Demand for these Metals. For example, Gold is in demand mainly because it is Real Money. Silver is demanded as a Real Money and demanded (with fluctuations) by Industry, as is Platinum which is a Store of Value (but not typically Money) and Industrial Metal. Copper’s demand (with fluctuations) is as an industrial Metal.

Important Note: Unlike most of the other Sectors listed here, Gold and Silver are Excellent “Buy and Hold” Assets for the Long Term.


The U.S. Treasury Bond Market

Deepcaster and Many Independent and even some Main Stream media Analysts have correctly claimed that the thirty year Bull Market in long-dated U.S. Treasuries is over and that a Major Takedown (entailing higher Rates) is ahead.

But Triggers for the Bond Takedown (launch of Rates Upward) and the Timing of the Activation of those Triggers is Crucial here.

For example, it is entirely possible, and arguably probable, that the Comex will default on its obligation to deliver Physical Gold sometime in the next very few months (See our Forecasts). Such a Default could trigger a Bond (and Equities) Market Crash and aq Surge in the Gold Price.

Another Trigger would be a Visible Spike up in Price Inflation. Real U.S. Inflation is already a Threshold Hyperinflationary 9.4% (Shadowstats.com) but this is hidden by the Bogus (Shadowstats.com) Official Numbers. (See Note 1)

And there are Triggers which would strengthen U.S. Treasuries again, temporarily, e.g., Revived Eurozone Sovereign Crisis.

So that Key regarding Treasuries is that one must watch for and, as much as possible, anticipate, the arrival of the Triggers.


Emerging Markets – Selectively

Much out of favor until very recently, certain Emerging Markets are poised to Rally in the Short to Medium Term.

Two prime candidates for a Rally are China and Russia. As one indication that Quality Chinese stocks are undervalued consider that the Morgan Stanley China A Shares Fund (CAF) is down nearly 25% since the beginning of 2012. But recent Chinese data (e.g., increases in import/export numbers) indicates China continues to grow albeit not so rapidly as in recent years.

Regarding Russia, consider that the Market Vectors Russian Fund (RSX) is down about 15% just since Mid-March. Careful Stock Selection of Chinese and Russian stocks create profitable prospects.

Careful analysis of Macrotrends, Sector Trends, ongoing and likely Central Bank Interventions, Political Dynamics and of individual stocks should result in Wealth Enhancement.

Best regards,

Deepcaster August 9, 2013

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported July 16, 2013
1.36%     /     9.38%

U.S. Unemployment reported August 2, 2013
7.6%     /     23.3%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported July 31, 2013
1.62%        /     -1.75%

U.S. M3 reported August 2, 2013 (Month of May, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     4.48% (e) (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.293 Trillion!)

Note 2: We expect the next six months to be pivotal for several Key Sectors in the Markets. We expect some Sectors will hit all-time highs, and then Crash. Others should hit all-time highs and then keep rocketing upward. And we expect some just to begin to crash.

To Consider our Forecasts, read Deepcaster’s latest Alert, “Buy Reco!; 6 Month Forecasts: Equities, U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Crude Oil, Gold & Silver,” just posted in ‘Alerts Cache’ on Deepcaster.com.

And our Buy Recommendation in our latest Alert provides an Extraordinary Opportunity to Profit from a company with disruptive technology of Great use to the Energy Industry, now trading around 20 cents per share.


What Exactly IS "Too Big To Fail" ?

Posted by: EpluribusUNO

Tagged in: Untagged 

EpluribusUNO

According to a recent analysis by Thomas Hoenig, vice chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, using international accounting standards (rather than the accounting methods used by the banks themselves) for derivatives and consolidated mortgage securitizations, . JPMorgan Chase JPM , Citibank and Bank of America BAC  have become the three largest banks in the world. Together with Wells Fargo WFC, which has become the world’s sixth largest, assets of the four largest U.S. banks amount to an astonishing 97 percent of our 2012 Gross Domestic Product.

So, when the government says the economy is improving... does it mean the economy of those four banks, or the economy for the REST of us, represented by 3%?  IE: The PRODUCTIVE  economy, the farmers, the few manufacturers remaining in the US, the "under"-employed, the part time employed, etc.?

That we continue to keep our heads in the sand, and still give credence to anything the government says is amazing to me. There IS no more representative government in the United States!

We exist only to provide grist for the false fiat money mill of the Big Four Banksters and their inflated Wall Street Casino of stock market paper equities and unending layers of derivatives, amounting to 10 times the real global economy. When the house of cards falls, and the breathtaking extent of the fraud permitted by our inept politicians and their banking puppet-masters becomes known, the Second American Revolution will encompass more than throwing out the elite banksters. It endangers confidence in the entire government that sanctioned them. It will have collateral damage consequences well beyond merely rearranging our debt, or returning to a solid monetary system. The very structure of American Society and Government will be at risk.

Someone find a fiddle; Nerobama's ready to play.

~Epluribus

http://www.EpluribusUNO.wordpress.com      http://wp.me/p3Ertk-8I


Golden Sunrise Coming

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

“To combat depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about; because we are suffering from a misdirection of production, we want to create further misdirection – a procedure which can only lead to a much more severe crisis as soon as the credit expansion comes to an end.”

Friedrich Hayek, 1933


Gold Investors have suffered through nearly two years of Price Takedowns, as have the Gold Miners.

But a number of Developments in the Economy, Financial Markets and Mining Sector are coalescing and should impel Gold Prices to begin their launch up to new highs soon, despite ongoing Cartel (Note 1) Price Suppression attempts.

Here we focus on the Key Triggers which will determine the Timing of the launch.

One Key Trigger is Credit Expansion, as Hayek points out, which goes hand in hand with Monetary Expansion.

Credit Expansion, to Sovereigns and others around the world, will inevitably bring a Collapse upon itself. Bill Bonner explains

“…The US now operates on a type of money better suited to the Paleolithic Age. A credit-backed money system has never worked in the modern world… and none has ever survived a full credit cycle. The credits expand until the debt is far too heavy. Then, when interest rates rise, the cost of carrying the debt goes up until the system falls apart.

…We consider the plight of the average person. In 1950 the typical working man was able to support a family. Today he can barely support himself because the costs of his main expenses have gone way up. He has to work about twice as long to pay for a new car and a new house.

…How did the feds’ funny money system affect the average family’s wealth?

The Money Makers

We can begin by wondering what would have happened if the US had kept its pre-1971 money system. Then the amount of credit was limited. National accounts were settled in gold. Whatever the feds may tell you, when push comes to shove, it is gold we trust.

In 1971 France had accumulated more dollars than it wanted. Its clever chief economist, Jacques Rueff, urged the French to take their dollars forthwith to the US Treasury and demand gold. But after August 15, it was too late. The gold window had slammed shut. France had to keep its dollars and hope for the best.

Since US dollars were now the cornerstone of the international monetary system, they were in demand. The US dollar itself became America’s No. 1 export, with the highest margins of any export item ever produced.

Say’s Law, however, tells us that “products are paid for with products” – you have to produce things in order to be able to buy things. That is normally true. But not when you’re printing up the world’s reserve currency. Then you have the exorbitant privilege of needing only to produce “money.”

The factories that would normally have fabricated the products needed to buy other products from other people in other places decamped to other places themselves. Between 1978 and 2010, the Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us the that the US lost 78% of its workers in the garment industry, 69% of those in “primary metals,” 67% of those in the textile industry and 26% of those in “transportation equipment.”

To look at it another way, the accumulated trade deficit since 1971 is roughly $8 trillion. That’s how out of balance the products-for-products exchange has been.

The foreigners produce the products; Americans produce only money. Imagine that the labor component of the products is 50%. That means US workers have lost out on $4 trillion worth of income. Share that out among the entire male workforce and each one would be $80,000 richer. More importantly, had it not been for the wholesale loss of American manufacturing, Americans would now have more jobs and higher wages.

Credit-based money is easy money. And easy money easily becomes more debt. Debt impoverishes. It doesn’t make people richer.”

“What’s America’s No. 1 Export?,” Bill Bonner, Diary of a Rogue Economist, 08/01/2013


Bonner then goes on to explain, albeit indirectly, why the private for profit Fed (owned by Globalist Mega-Bankers) has fought so hard to avoid being audited and/or abolished.

Where Did the Money Go?

Then why do we have this credit-based money?

Because governments are essentially a way for the insiders (who control the police power of the state) to take power and money from the outsiders.

Bullion-based money is a natural limitation on the ability of the elite to rob the rest of the population. It’s relatively harder to fiddle with gold and silver coins than it is to mess with paper money....”

Ibid.


Deepcaster and Bonner agree that the Credit-Backed Money System until inevitably “Fall Apart.” The question is “When?” Deepcaster’s answer is “Soon.”

But consider that the anticipation of the Credit Money Systems’ Collapse will Ignite a Gold launch, because Gold, as Real Money, is the Antithesis of Fiat-Currency based Credit! That is why the “Smart Money” is already increasing, demanding delivery of Physical Gold. Consider:

  • Comex inventories of Physical are declining rapidly (reportedly about 2 months left at current drawdown rates), as are LBMAs.

  • Germany demanded its Physical be returned but is now getting only one-seventh per year.

  • The bullion banks are no longer net short Gold.

  • The Indian Central Bank/Government has taken ten steps to contain Gold demand, but (ironically) smuggling has now reportedly increased tenfold).

  • China, the world’s largest producer is dramatically increasing imports of Physical.

  • Gold has risen from the low $1200s to the low $1300s in the last month.

  • Gold futures are in backwardation (especially when increasing premiums for delivery of physical are considered, a signal of current supply shortages).

Of the foregoing, The Critical point is the increasing demand for Physical and Delivery of Physical, and the Prospective Inability of Comex, LBMA, and other Depositories, to actually deliver Physical Metal.

Another positive Trigger for a Gold launch is the (highly likely) continuation of QE (The Fed’s Buying Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities) into 2014 with no tapering (though they will likely talk tapering on occasion) and that should support Treasuries in its current Trading range for a few more months. But the long-term Trend for Treasuries is down, and, indeed, has already begun.

However, Continuing Fed-generated QE will likely become relatively ineffective in 2014 (or perhaps sooner) to support U.S. Treasuries. Non-U.S. Central Banks and Big Investors are already dumping U.S. Treasuries by the carload. Thus, at some point even The Fed will be unable to save U.S. Treasuries, which will than tank (Rates Spike).

And when Rates Spike (as they have already begun to do) that will be a visible sign Hyperinflation is upon us, and there will be an even greater rush to Gold. Indeed, Real U.S. Inflation is already Threshold Hyperinflationary at 9.38% (Note 2).

Then, interest rates for all credit transactions will rise dramatically. And that will likely be one Catalyst for our Forecast Equities Crash (see our recent Alerts for Timing and Forecasts). This is but one reason The Fed has no choice but to continue QE and to continue it until Hyperinflation collapses the $US; consequently Gold will skyrocket. Legendary Jim Rogers’ assessment is correct, “Run for the Hills.”

And The Crash will bring Defaults on Paper Assets. We already saw counterparty defaults on Paper Assets in the 2006-09 Crash, and we will see them again, as The Bond Market Crashes. Yet another Trigger for a Gold Launch.

And The Crash will lead to an even greater distrust of Wall Street and the Financial System. The public is already fed up with the Financial Services World’s shenanigans and immunity, thus far, from serious punishment.

“The nice thing about being in the financial services world is that you never really have to say you’re sorry. Screw over customers, botch foreclosures, run afoul of important regulations, and violate some important rules---and the worst you’ll have to do is pay some fines or settlements. It’s a cost of doing business…

Joshua Rosner, a financial analyst and co-author of Reckless Endangerment, in March, estimated that the company’s litigation expenses since 2009 have totaled $16 billion.”

“JPMorgan Chase’s Crazy Fine Tally”
Nina Strochlic, The Daily Beast, 05/08/2013


So consider how the Markets reflect the current state of the financial system including The Triggers for a Gold Price launch.

S&A Short report provides an overview

  • Interest rates are spiking higher.

  • NYSE margin debt is at an all-time high.

  • Investor Sentiment (a contrary indicator) – as measured by the AAII Sentiment Survey – is overwhelmingly bullish.

  • The Volatility Index is trading near its lowest level in six years.
    The Nasdaq Summation Index is in “nosebleed overbought” territory and is trading at its highest level in 10 years.

  • The bullish percent index for the S&P 500 is overbought.

  • The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages (DMAs) just turned down.

  • The daily and 60–minute charts of the S&P 500 have extensive negative divergences on both the MACD momentum indicators and the relative strength index.

And, we should add that a Bank of America Merrill Lynch study shows the Professionals have begun bailing from Equities while ‘Mom and Pop’ are buying, an indication of a Major Top.

In sum, the Markets and the “Triggers” signal the Gold launch is approaching ever closer (see Deepcaster’s August Letter and recent Alerts for Timing).

Finally, one last Trigger is already signaling a Gold launch is impending – the price of The Quintessential Inflation Asset, Crude Oil.

The recent elevated (over $100/bbl) Oil Price can be explained by considering the following: that Equities and Bonds are artificially elevated, Fiat Currencies are losing Purchasing Power due to ongoing QE, and many Commodities Prices are depressed until just now due primarily to China’s slowdown, and Gold & Silver Prices have been depressed by The Cartel (Note 1).

Therefore, only Crude Oil has been recently seen as a most reliable store of value to sophisticated Investors. Thus it is not surprising to us that WTI Crude has approached the $110 level recently notwithstanding the Economic slowdown. Part of this strength is due also to QE-generated Real Price Inflation, and to recently reported above-ground supply drawdowns.

Because Crude is essential, with relatively high inelasticity of demand, and because it gets used up, it is not easily subject to price manipulation though, for sure, its Price is manipulated. Thus a spiking Crude Price provides yet another Signal that Hyperinflation is impending, and thus a Gold Price Moonshot is impending.

Some week soon, The Cartel will no longer be able to sustain its Paper Gold Price Takedowns.


Best regards,

Deepcaster
August 2, 2013

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 2: Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported July 16, 2013
1.36% / 9.38%

U.S. Unemployment reported July 5, 2013
7.6% / 23.4%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported July 31, 2013
1.62% / -1.75%

U.S. M3 reported July 15, 2013 (Month of May, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 4.43% (i.e., total M3 Now at $15.198 Trillion!)

 


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