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LAUNCH-READY HOT SECTORS Overview

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

Key Sectors and Subsectors are poised to launch up in the next few weeks or very few months, depending on the sector.

Others will languish or crash.

However, very few of the Sectors poised to launch up soon are multi-year holds, because the Developing Trends in the Economy, Markets and Central Bank Policy (see our Forecasts) will likely not allow that.

In other words, “Buy and Hold” rarely works any more. However, they do offer Great Profit Potential in the short to medium term.

So we provide a brief and necessarily incomplete Overview of launch-ready Key Sectors and Subsectors. Of course, within each of these it is essential for iInvestors to intensively research the Sectors and prospective individual picks; and that also entails making decisions about setting target prices for exit.


Uranium

Japan is reactivating some of its nuclear reactors, China and others need to increase nuclear power generation to reduce coal-fired power generation to clean up the air.

But “Easy” Uranium Supplies are drying up. Russian sales of Fuel are Winding Down.

In short, Demand Up. Supply Down.

But the stock prices of suppliers are depressed, e.g., Cameco (CCJ) is down nearly 40% in 7 years.  


Oilfield Services & Equipment

The “Fracking Boom” in the U.S. and elsewhere is increasing demand for Oilfield Services and Equipment. Some companies working in the sector have already launched. But some are still in the Doldrums (e.g., Baker Hughes [BHI] 35% off its recent decade Highs.)

But with World Population increasing at 80 Million per year, and economies still growing (albeit more slowly than in pre-Crash years) Oil and Natural Gas demand will continue to Trend Upward.


Smart Energy

Energy Production and Transmission Infrastructure is aging and/or technologically outdated.

But energy demand is still increasing albeit more slowly in some areas. Even so, energy delivery and storage needs to be made smarter for greater efficiency and to accommodate multiple energy sources. Companies at the forefront of this “Smart Grid” technology like the one Deepcaster recently recommended selling at about 20 cents per share are likely to do very well. (See Note 2)  


Sector Long and Short ETFs

We have forecast two Major Moves in the Equities Markets occurring within the next six months (See our Forecasts).

Savvy Investors who position in advance of these moves can profit regardless of the direction of the moves.  


Precious Metals

Both the Precious Monetary Metals Gold and Silver, and Industrial Metals (e.g., Copper and Hybrids (e.g., Platinum) are poised to Make Major Moves in the next very few Months, as we have forecast.

But the Timing, Direction and Magnitude of these moves must be forecast on a Metal by Metal Basis.

That is mainly because of the character of the Demand for these Metals. For example, Gold is in demand mainly because it is Real Money. Silver is demanded as a Real Money and demanded (with fluctuations) by Industry, as is Platinum which is a Store of Value (but not typically Money) and Industrial Metal. Copper’s demand (with fluctuations) is as an industrial Metal.

Important Note: Unlike most of the other Sectors listed here, Gold and Silver are Excellent “Buy and Hold” Assets for the Long Term.


The U.S. Treasury Bond Market

Deepcaster and Many Independent and even some Main Stream media Analysts have correctly claimed that the thirty year Bull Market in long-dated U.S. Treasuries is over and that a Major Takedown (entailing higher Rates) is ahead.

But Triggers for the Bond Takedown (launch of Rates Upward) and the Timing of the Activation of those Triggers is Crucial here.

For example, it is entirely possible, and arguably probable, that the Comex will default on its obligation to deliver Physical Gold sometime in the next very few months (See our Forecasts). Such a Default could trigger a Bond (and Equities) Market Crash and aq Surge in the Gold Price.

Another Trigger would be a Visible Spike up in Price Inflation. Real U.S. Inflation is already a Threshold Hyperinflationary 9.4% (Shadowstats.com) but this is hidden by the Bogus (Shadowstats.com) Official Numbers. (See Note 1)

And there are Triggers which would strengthen U.S. Treasuries again, temporarily, e.g., Revived Eurozone Sovereign Crisis.

So that Key regarding Treasuries is that one must watch for and, as much as possible, anticipate, the arrival of the Triggers.


Emerging Markets – Selectively

Much out of favor until very recently, certain Emerging Markets are poised to Rally in the Short to Medium Term.

Two prime candidates for a Rally are China and Russia. As one indication that Quality Chinese stocks are undervalued consider that the Morgan Stanley China A Shares Fund (CAF) is down nearly 25% since the beginning of 2012. But recent Chinese data (e.g., increases in import/export numbers) indicates China continues to grow albeit not so rapidly as in recent years.

Regarding Russia, consider that the Market Vectors Russian Fund (RSX) is down about 15% just since Mid-March. Careful Stock Selection of Chinese and Russian stocks create profitable prospects.

Careful analysis of Macrotrends, Sector Trends, ongoing and likely Central Bank Interventions, Political Dynamics and of individual stocks should result in Wealth Enhancement.

Best regards,

Deepcaster August 9, 2013

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported July 16, 2013
1.36%     /     9.38%

U.S. Unemployment reported August 2, 2013
7.6%     /     23.3%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported July 31, 2013
1.62%        /     -1.75%

U.S. M3 reported August 2, 2013 (Month of May, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     4.48% (e) (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.293 Trillion!)

Note 2: We expect the next six months to be pivotal for several Key Sectors in the Markets. We expect some Sectors will hit all-time highs, and then Crash. Others should hit all-time highs and then keep rocketing upward. And we expect some just to begin to crash.

To Consider our Forecasts, read Deepcaster’s latest Alert, “Buy Reco!; 6 Month Forecasts: Equities, U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Crude Oil, Gold & Silver,” just posted in ‘Alerts Cache’ on Deepcaster.com.

And our Buy Recommendation in our latest Alert provides an Extraordinary Opportunity to Profit from a company with disruptive technology of Great use to the Energy Industry, now trading around 20 cents per share.


What Exactly IS "Too Big To Fail" ?

Posted by: EpluribusUNO

Tagged in: Untagged 

EpluribusUNO

According to a recent analysis by Thomas Hoenig, vice chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, using international accounting standards (rather than the accounting methods used by the banks themselves) for derivatives and consolidated mortgage securitizations, . JPMorgan Chase JPM , Citibank and Bank of America BAC  have become the three largest banks in the world. Together with Wells Fargo WFC, which has become the world’s sixth largest, assets of the four largest U.S. banks amount to an astonishing 97 percent of our 2012 Gross Domestic Product.

So, when the government says the economy is improving... does it mean the economy of those four banks, or the economy for the REST of us, represented by 3%?  IE: The PRODUCTIVE  economy, the farmers, the few manufacturers remaining in the US, the "under"-employed, the part time employed, etc.?

That we continue to keep our heads in the sand, and still give credence to anything the government says is amazing to me. There IS no more representative government in the United States!

We exist only to provide grist for the false fiat money mill of the Big Four Banksters and their inflated Wall Street Casino of stock market paper equities and unending layers of derivatives, amounting to 10 times the real global economy. When the house of cards falls, and the breathtaking extent of the fraud permitted by our inept politicians and their banking puppet-masters becomes known, the Second American Revolution will encompass more than throwing out the elite banksters. It endangers confidence in the entire government that sanctioned them. It will have collateral damage consequences well beyond merely rearranging our debt, or returning to a solid monetary system. The very structure of American Society and Government will be at risk.

Someone find a fiddle; Nerobama's ready to play.

~Epluribus

http://www.EpluribusUNO.wordpress.com      http://wp.me/p3Ertk-8I


Golden Sunrise Coming

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

“To combat depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about; because we are suffering from a misdirection of production, we want to create further misdirection – a procedure which can only lead to a much more severe crisis as soon as the credit expansion comes to an end.”

Friedrich Hayek, 1933


Gold Investors have suffered through nearly two years of Price Takedowns, as have the Gold Miners.

But a number of Developments in the Economy, Financial Markets and Mining Sector are coalescing and should impel Gold Prices to begin their launch up to new highs soon, despite ongoing Cartel (Note 1) Price Suppression attempts.

Here we focus on the Key Triggers which will determine the Timing of the launch.

One Key Trigger is Credit Expansion, as Hayek points out, which goes hand in hand with Monetary Expansion.

Credit Expansion, to Sovereigns and others around the world, will inevitably bring a Collapse upon itself. Bill Bonner explains

“…The US now operates on a type of money better suited to the Paleolithic Age. A credit-backed money system has never worked in the modern world… and none has ever survived a full credit cycle. The credits expand until the debt is far too heavy. Then, when interest rates rise, the cost of carrying the debt goes up until the system falls apart.

…We consider the plight of the average person. In 1950 the typical working man was able to support a family. Today he can barely support himself because the costs of his main expenses have gone way up. He has to work about twice as long to pay for a new car and a new house.

…How did the feds’ funny money system affect the average family’s wealth?

The Money Makers

We can begin by wondering what would have happened if the US had kept its pre-1971 money system. Then the amount of credit was limited. National accounts were settled in gold. Whatever the feds may tell you, when push comes to shove, it is gold we trust.

In 1971 France had accumulated more dollars than it wanted. Its clever chief economist, Jacques Rueff, urged the French to take their dollars forthwith to the US Treasury and demand gold. But after August 15, it was too late. The gold window had slammed shut. France had to keep its dollars and hope for the best.

Since US dollars were now the cornerstone of the international monetary system, they were in demand. The US dollar itself became America’s No. 1 export, with the highest margins of any export item ever produced.

Say’s Law, however, tells us that “products are paid for with products” – you have to produce things in order to be able to buy things. That is normally true. But not when you’re printing up the world’s reserve currency. Then you have the exorbitant privilege of needing only to produce “money.”

The factories that would normally have fabricated the products needed to buy other products from other people in other places decamped to other places themselves. Between 1978 and 2010, the Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us the that the US lost 78% of its workers in the garment industry, 69% of those in “primary metals,” 67% of those in the textile industry and 26% of those in “transportation equipment.”

To look at it another way, the accumulated trade deficit since 1971 is roughly $8 trillion. That’s how out of balance the products-for-products exchange has been.

The foreigners produce the products; Americans produce only money. Imagine that the labor component of the products is 50%. That means US workers have lost out on $4 trillion worth of income. Share that out among the entire male workforce and each one would be $80,000 richer. More importantly, had it not been for the wholesale loss of American manufacturing, Americans would now have more jobs and higher wages.

Credit-based money is easy money. And easy money easily becomes more debt. Debt impoverishes. It doesn’t make people richer.”

“What’s America’s No. 1 Export?,” Bill Bonner, Diary of a Rogue Economist, 08/01/2013


Bonner then goes on to explain, albeit indirectly, why the private for profit Fed (owned by Globalist Mega-Bankers) has fought so hard to avoid being audited and/or abolished.

Where Did the Money Go?

Then why do we have this credit-based money?

Because governments are essentially a way for the insiders (who control the police power of the state) to take power and money from the outsiders.

Bullion-based money is a natural limitation on the ability of the elite to rob the rest of the population. It’s relatively harder to fiddle with gold and silver coins than it is to mess with paper money....”

Ibid.


Deepcaster and Bonner agree that the Credit-Backed Money System until inevitably “Fall Apart.” The question is “When?” Deepcaster’s answer is “Soon.”

But consider that the anticipation of the Credit Money Systems’ Collapse will Ignite a Gold launch, because Gold, as Real Money, is the Antithesis of Fiat-Currency based Credit! That is why the “Smart Money” is already increasing, demanding delivery of Physical Gold. Consider:

  • Comex inventories of Physical are declining rapidly (reportedly about 2 months left at current drawdown rates), as are LBMAs.

  • Germany demanded its Physical be returned but is now getting only one-seventh per year.

  • The bullion banks are no longer net short Gold.

  • The Indian Central Bank/Government has taken ten steps to contain Gold demand, but (ironically) smuggling has now reportedly increased tenfold).

  • China, the world’s largest producer is dramatically increasing imports of Physical.

  • Gold has risen from the low $1200s to the low $1300s in the last month.

  • Gold futures are in backwardation (especially when increasing premiums for delivery of physical are considered, a signal of current supply shortages).

Of the foregoing, The Critical point is the increasing demand for Physical and Delivery of Physical, and the Prospective Inability of Comex, LBMA, and other Depositories, to actually deliver Physical Metal.

Another positive Trigger for a Gold launch is the (highly likely) continuation of QE (The Fed’s Buying Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities) into 2014 with no tapering (though they will likely talk tapering on occasion) and that should support Treasuries in its current Trading range for a few more months. But the long-term Trend for Treasuries is down, and, indeed, has already begun.

However, Continuing Fed-generated QE will likely become relatively ineffective in 2014 (or perhaps sooner) to support U.S. Treasuries. Non-U.S. Central Banks and Big Investors are already dumping U.S. Treasuries by the carload. Thus, at some point even The Fed will be unable to save U.S. Treasuries, which will than tank (Rates Spike).

And when Rates Spike (as they have already begun to do) that will be a visible sign Hyperinflation is upon us, and there will be an even greater rush to Gold. Indeed, Real U.S. Inflation is already Threshold Hyperinflationary at 9.38% (Note 2).

Then, interest rates for all credit transactions will rise dramatically. And that will likely be one Catalyst for our Forecast Equities Crash (see our recent Alerts for Timing and Forecasts). This is but one reason The Fed has no choice but to continue QE and to continue it until Hyperinflation collapses the $US; consequently Gold will skyrocket. Legendary Jim Rogers’ assessment is correct, “Run for the Hills.”

And The Crash will bring Defaults on Paper Assets. We already saw counterparty defaults on Paper Assets in the 2006-09 Crash, and we will see them again, as The Bond Market Crashes. Yet another Trigger for a Gold Launch.

And The Crash will lead to an even greater distrust of Wall Street and the Financial System. The public is already fed up with the Financial Services World’s shenanigans and immunity, thus far, from serious punishment.

“The nice thing about being in the financial services world is that you never really have to say you’re sorry. Screw over customers, botch foreclosures, run afoul of important regulations, and violate some important rules---and the worst you’ll have to do is pay some fines or settlements. It’s a cost of doing business…

Joshua Rosner, a financial analyst and co-author of Reckless Endangerment, in March, estimated that the company’s litigation expenses since 2009 have totaled $16 billion.”

“JPMorgan Chase’s Crazy Fine Tally”
Nina Strochlic, The Daily Beast, 05/08/2013


So consider how the Markets reflect the current state of the financial system including The Triggers for a Gold Price launch.

S&A Short report provides an overview

  • Interest rates are spiking higher.

  • NYSE margin debt is at an all-time high.

  • Investor Sentiment (a contrary indicator) – as measured by the AAII Sentiment Survey – is overwhelmingly bullish.

  • The Volatility Index is trading near its lowest level in six years.
    The Nasdaq Summation Index is in “nosebleed overbought” territory and is trading at its highest level in 10 years.

  • The bullish percent index for the S&P 500 is overbought.

  • The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages (DMAs) just turned down.

  • The daily and 60–minute charts of the S&P 500 have extensive negative divergences on both the MACD momentum indicators and the relative strength index.

And, we should add that a Bank of America Merrill Lynch study shows the Professionals have begun bailing from Equities while ‘Mom and Pop’ are buying, an indication of a Major Top.

In sum, the Markets and the “Triggers” signal the Gold launch is approaching ever closer (see Deepcaster’s August Letter and recent Alerts for Timing).

Finally, one last Trigger is already signaling a Gold launch is impending – the price of The Quintessential Inflation Asset, Crude Oil.

The recent elevated (over $100/bbl) Oil Price can be explained by considering the following: that Equities and Bonds are artificially elevated, Fiat Currencies are losing Purchasing Power due to ongoing QE, and many Commodities Prices are depressed until just now due primarily to China’s slowdown, and Gold & Silver Prices have been depressed by The Cartel (Note 1).

Therefore, only Crude Oil has been recently seen as a most reliable store of value to sophisticated Investors. Thus it is not surprising to us that WTI Crude has approached the $110 level recently notwithstanding the Economic slowdown. Part of this strength is due also to QE-generated Real Price Inflation, and to recently reported above-ground supply drawdowns.

Because Crude is essential, with relatively high inelasticity of demand, and because it gets used up, it is not easily subject to price manipulation though, for sure, its Price is manipulated. Thus a spiking Crude Price provides yet another Signal that Hyperinflation is impending, and thus a Gold Price Moonshot is impending.

Some week soon, The Cartel will no longer be able to sustain its Paper Gold Price Takedowns.


Best regards,

Deepcaster
August 2, 2013

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 2: Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported July 16, 2013
1.36% / 9.38%

U.S. Unemployment reported July 5, 2013
7.6% / 23.4%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported July 31, 2013
1.62% / -1.75%

U.S. M3 reported July 15, 2013 (Month of May, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 4.43% (i.e., total M3 Now at $15.198 Trillion!)

 


Meltdown Warning Signals

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

Meltdown Warning Signals

“Run for the Hills Now, I’m Doing It.”

Jim Rogers, CNBC.com (07/20/13)

When a Remarkably Successful Establishment (albeit a Rebel within) Investment Guru warns that He and We should “Run for The Hills” it is important to ask why?

Immediately leading up to, and for months after, the 2008-09 Financial Crisis, not only Independent Commentators but also MainStream Media commentators were Warning we were on the verge of Financial Collapse. And some quite reputable independent commentators still are issuing those Warnings.

So it is important to consider what the Main Warning Signals of an Impending Collapse would be, and how to Profit and Protect.

Indeed, we are already seeing some of those Signals sound such a Warning.

Consider the GEAB’s view and timeline:

“Historians will certainly consider the 2008 crisis as a warning shot before that of 2013.”

Global European Anticipation Bulletin, leap2020.eu

“-- end 2013, financial impact: collapse of financial markets especially in the US and Japan. Banks can no longer be saved by the states and BAIL-Ins are put in place;

-- end 2013 / 2014 spreading to the real economy: The financial impasse causes / reveals a major world recession and the reduction of international trade;

-- 2014, social impact: The economic deterioration causes unemployment to explode, in the United States the dollar's decline lowers the standard of living, riots mushroom everywhere;

-- 2014 political crisis: the governments of the most affected countries are under fire for their handling of the crisis, forced resignations and early elections are expected, if not coups;

-- 2014-2015, international management of the crisis: together Euroland and the BRICS impose a new international monetary system and lay down the basis of new global governance;

-- 2015: The least affected regions have exited the crisis definitively;

-- 2018: It will take the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan five years to purge themselves of the crisis with, ultimately, a greatly reduced standard of living and a considerable loss of global influence (resulting from their refusal to participate in the re-casting of global governance on new bases)."

Ibid.

And Goldmeister Jim Sinclair’s comment regarding the foregoing:

“I find no other source with which I agree more than GEAB.

I agree totally with the steps. My timing on the final step is more 2020 than 2018 with the USA, GB, and Japan taking seven years to purge the criminals that have gotten us to this point via OTC derivative frauds.”

“2013 Crisis To Trump 2008” Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com, 7/19/13

So consider what might cause this Course of Events to be realized. Two possible interrelated Triggers immediately come to mind. 1.) Major over-indebted Sovereign Nations are unable to pay their debts and thus repudiate them (at least partially) as Greece and Iceland have (de facto) already done. This would start a Cascade of Defaults and 2.) Major Central Banks’ ongoing QE generates visible intensifying Inflation (which exacerbates the debt problem because lenders and the markets consequently demand higher interest rates – Japan’s debt is already over 200% of GDP, e.g., and thus they cannot afford to pay much higher interest payments).

In this respect, one of the necessary conditions already appears on its way to being fulfilled. Threshold Hyperinflation is already with us – though Bogus Official figures seek to hide it.

In the U.S. for example, Real CPI bumped up from 8.99% to 9.38% from May to June 2013 (Shadowstats.com). Other Major Nations’ figures are notoriously unreliable also (e.g. China). (An Argentinean economist personally confided to us that Real Inflation in Argentina is 50% per year, even though the government will not acknowledge it.)

And QE is, if anything, increasing and it is highly likely it will continue to increase as we pointed out in a recent article. And that means Inflation will intensify, and that means increasing interest rates. As rates increase, Debts cannot be serviced and we have Greece writ large. So sudden interest rates spikes (such as we have seen recently in the U.S. 10-year) are one Signal of Impending Financial Collapse.

And there are others.

Another indication of impending Financial Collapse (indeed, probably The Primary Signal) would be a sudden Flight from, and dumping of, the World’s Reserve Currency, the U.S. Dollar.

The Fed’s Ongoing QE will generate such a Flight at some point – the only question is When? But we do not see such a Flight yet because many Major Fiat Currencies are simultaneously being debased by their Central Banks in the so-called Currency Wars. At some point these debasements will begin to be manifested in a spike up in commodity prices.

Indeed, we may already see the beginnings of that in the apparent bottoming of Commodities Prices. The CRB has moved up in the last two weeks. (See Deepcaster’s latest Forecasts.) The $US is still the least dirty shirt in the Fiat Currency laundry because of the (falsely) perceived relative strength of the US Economy.

As to U.S. Treasuries, their strength/weakness will, short-term, continue to be determined by “tapering” talk. If/when The Fed talks tapering, Treasuries will weaken, because Fed buying has artificially supported the Bond Market. Yet, out of the other side of their mouth they signal “more QE,” and that causes Treasuries to strengthen (yields fall).

N.B. : However, continuing Fed-generated QE will likely be useless at some point soon to support U.S. Treasuries. Non-U.S. Central Banks and Big Investors are already dumping U.S. Treasuries by the carload. Thus, at some point even The Fed will be unable to save U.S. Treasuries, which will than tank (Rates Spike).

In fact, they have no choice but to continue QE and that is what will actually happen until Hyperinflation collapses the $US… However, when continuing QE (i.e. Bond Buying) no longer serves to support Treasuries, i.e. to suppress Interest Rates, that will also be a signal that Financial collapse is impending, because that will signal The Fed has lost control of the Bond Market, and Interest Rates in the Broad Economy. That has not happened yet but will. (See our Forecasts.) (Some, including Rob Kirby, whom we respect, reportedly thinks The Fed can control the whole curve indefinitely through OTC Swaps and Forward Rate Agreements. But this omits Real World Developments, e.g. QE generated Price Inflation of Real Assets.) We already saw counterparty defaults on Paper Assets in the 2006-09 Crash, and we will see them again, as The Bond Market Crashes.

In sum, the position of the $US as the World’s Reserve Currency steadily weakens. Now Switzerland has joined the race to be the Yuan Trading Hub for Europe. And Canada pushes to be the Yuan Trading Hub for North America.

And we forecast that the Swiss Central Bank will not be able to keep its Franc pegged to the Euro many months more. If one were to choose a Good relatively “Safe Haven” Currency, the Swiss Franc would be one.

And yet another signal of impending Financial Collapse would be the collapse of one of the world’s too-big-to-fail Mega Banks, all of which are interrelated as counterparties on trillions of dollars of Derivatives and other Instruments. The prime candidate for collapse – Deutsche Bank.

The Fed and Bank of England can protect the American and English Mega Banks to a degree because they can print unlimited money. The Deutsche Bank has no such national currency printer/protection (Yet another Negative Consequence for Nations which relinquish National Sovereignty to Regional or Global Entities!) and DB is under increasing pressure from the LIBOR and other fraud allegations and investigation.

And there are reports DB has sold 60 thousand tons of allocated Gold certificates to clients. But who actually has the Physical Gold and how much do they have?

Other signals of Impending Meltdown would be signals that the Powers-that-be are seriously Distrusting each other, e.g.,

--the Overnight lending rate (i.e., among Banks) spikes

--Major Nations increasingly Distrust each other and/or the Mega-Banks

We have seen this already with Germany’s demand that its Gold be repatriated from U.S. based Fed Vaults, where it is allegedly stored.

--The Politicians who usually do the bidding of The Banking Cartel, begin not to do the bidding of the Banking Cartel due to pressure from their Rioting Constituents.

Another (Technical) Signal of impending Equities and Financial Collapse would be that Equities Prices hit all-time highs at the same time that prices technically hit the top of the multi-year Bearish expanding wedge (Jaws of Death) now forming and simultaneously that while stocks hit that all-time high, the NYSE advance/decline line does not.

This Bearish Divergence would warn that the Great Equities Crash (Wave 4 in our forecast) is about to begin, and that therefore a Financial Meltdown may well occur also. Such a collapse would likely also occur nearly simultaneously with an Equities Crash then also because the entire Financial system is more highly leveraged now than it was before the 2008 Crisis – more unpayable debt, bigger too-big-to-fail Mega Banks, much more Fiat currency in the system, etc. and no Effective Structural Reforms in place.

Today, we are moving toward that Wave #4 Scenario (see Deepcaster’s Forecasts re Timing).

Crude Oil

The recent elevated Oil Price (over $100 for WTI and Brent) can be explained by considering the following: that Equities and Bonds are artificially elevated, Fiat Currencies are losing Purchasing Power due to ongoing QE and Currency Wars, and many Commodities Prices are depressed (until just now) due primarily to China’s slowdown, and Gold & Silver Prices have been depressed by The Cartel (Note 1).

Therefore, only Crude Oil seems a reliable store of value to many sophisticated Investors. Thus it is not surprising to us that WTI Crude has already approached the $110 level notwithstanding the Economic slowdown. Part of this strength is due also to QE-generated Real Price Inflation.

Because Crude is essential, with relatively high Inelasticity of Demand, and because it gets used up, it is not easily subject to price manipulation though, for sure, its Price is manipulated to a degree. Thus a spiking Crude Price provides yet another Signal that Hyperinflation is impending and thus that a Crash may be near.

Of course Geopolitical Events (e.g. Wider War in the Mideast) could drive Crude Prices sky high at any time.

We reiterate that, notwithstanding “fracking,” the USA still has to import half its oil consumption, with increasing Import Demand coming from China, the Eurozone, and Japan as well. By the way, given even the most optimistic “Fracking” Production Projections, do not expect the USA to produce more than 60% to 65% of its own oil consumption, unless there is a Major Depression.

Key Point : Both rising U.S. Treasury yields and rising Crude Prices and the Real Numbers already tell us: Inflation is intensifying.  

Finally, regarding Gold and Silver Prices as Meltdown Indicators, consider that The Cartel took down Gold and Silver Prices dramatically in mid-April, and subsequently, mainly to protect the $US. But in the last two weeks Gold has risen from the low $1200s to the low $1300s, notwithstanding the fact that the Hedgies have gotten into the habit of selling Rallies.

In our view, the massive and intensifying Physical Demand is the likely catalyst for this development, and the associated strength in the HUI now up in the mid-200s from 200ish.

While The Cartel may be able to take Gold back into the $1200s (and Silver back under $20) it will likely not be able to do so for very many more weeks. The Demand for Physical is simply too great for both Gold and Silver, if even half the stories we hear about near exhaustion of LBMA and Comex vaults containing Physical are true.

Indeed, if the Depletion of Comex Inventories continues, it will have to go to a Cash Settlement Mode (as opposed to Gold Delivery Mode) in the next few weeks. This would launch Physical Gold Prices Sky High.

The Good news is that we expect that that Great Launch will Propel Gold up to $3000/oz with a proportionate rise in Silver beginning at Deepcaster’s forecast launch date. Therefore, prices at current levels still afford a Great Opportunity to buy Physical if one does not own ones full allocation of Physical. And many of the quality Miners are incredibly cheap with the HUI still trading not far above 250.

Skyrocketing Gold Prices are yet another sign of an impending Meltdown. Buy your appropriate Allocation of Physical and Quality Miners Now while they are cheap.

Best regards,

Deepcaster July 25, 2013

Note 1 : We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


Vladimir Putin: Dictator or Statesman?

Posted by: EpluribusUNO

Tagged in: Untagged 

EpluribusUNO

As US mainstream media increasingly tries to portray Putin ONLY as a Stalinesque dictator, this FASCINATING interview (without a Teleprompter or pre-determined questions) indicates he also happens to be a world-class intellectual, extremely well-read, and a statesman with a very refined sense of history, and sophisticated international perspective. I wish America had one that at least recognized how to wield governmental power and have a realistic perspective on Western hegemony. A dictator, certainly, but one to be reckoned with, with equal resolve, not platitudes. His impact on the world is by no means over.

(NB: that he answered the English question w/o interpretation).

It’s VITALLY important for Americans / Canadians to get their news from sources other than domestic drivel. RT is an excellent news bureau. I recommend it highly.

Putin: A Very impressive world-class leader, whether you condone his tactics or not; one to be reckoned with seriously, unlike the mouthpieces prevalent in the West. This interview is essential viewing (several times). I believe there is a growing dissatisfaction with the expanding American "empire" being imposed on the world in the wake of 9/11 "security" measures. Putin is not about to let either America or oligarchs he doesn't personally control, determine the future of Russia. One must know and study one's adversaries.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33oIF-ggK5U&w=560&h=315]

~Epluribus

http://www.EpluribusUNO.wordpress.com     http://wp.me/p3Ertk-6Z


Barrick Gold (ABX) the biggest loser or future winner?!

Posted by: Martin

Tagged in: Untagged 

Martin

Now that Barrick Gold (ABX) is hitting all time lows now sitting at about $16.15 on 7/19/2013 from a all time high of over $50 is it safe to say the bleeding is over? I feel there could be some more downward pressure in the near term but long term there does seem to be some light at the end of the tunnel.

Silver Wheaton (SLW) made a silver stream contract for part of the Pascua-Lama mine but the project was put on hold due to water issues. They probably will not go into full production of the mine until 2015-2017. If it even goes into production at all. This could affect Silver Wheaton but I don't see too much damage coming from it.

However given they are tied in with the corporatocracy they are sure to come out of this on top. I feel there could be some major gains in the future plus they pay a generous dividend. So you can realize some capital gains and reinvest your dividends for long term growth.

Most people think Barrick Gold will go bankrupt sometime in the near future and most of the sentiment out there is negative in regards to this mining company. If you look back during the 2008 crash they were hit hard but rallied back and I feel the same will happen when the prices in the precious metals turnaround for the better!

Disclaimer: I am a share holder of Barrick Gold (ABX)


Big Kahuna Profit Opportunities Coming Soon!

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

“Highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future…”

Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman, 7/10/2013 and 7/17/13


“… in June, 2013, inflation was about 9.4%, up from 9.0% in May and Real Unemployment up to 23.4% from 23% in May.

Real Retail Sales and Real Earnings contracted in June… (The Official Reported) June Retail Sales Gain Reflected little more Than Rising Inflation”

Shadowstats.com, 7/15/13

 

With the aforementioned statements Bernanke’s Fed took yet another Giant Step toward unleashing The Big Kahuna. It is a step forecast by us and several other independent analysts. But it is the significant consequences of these steps toward the Big Kahuna for the Markets and Economy and the Opportunities and Risks they create for Investors that count.

Translating the phrase “highly accommodative monetary policy” yields a Clearer Fed Policy statement – the Fed will continue to print money primarily for the benefit of its Mega Bank owners/allies for the foreseeable future.

Indeed, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have just reported Record Profits, but wages are stagnant and Real Unemployment and Real Inflation are both rising. And by Bernanke first uttering those words the predictable result occurred – the U.S. Dollar tanked dramatically basis USDX, i.e. vis a vis other Major Fiat Currencies.

From one perspective, the Fed was impelled to make that $US-debasing Policy Statement because Major Central Banks in Europe, Japan, and elsewhere are intensifying their debasing of their Fiat currencies also. The Currency War is now in full swing.

But there is a problem with this path, especially for the USA and other debt saturated countries. Money Printing eventually entails a crashing Dollar, and a crashing Dollar means crashing Purchasing Power, i.e. Price Inflation leading to Hyperinflation and an eventual bursting of the U.S. Treasuries Bubble. Thus investors will, and already are, demanding higher yields on U.S. Treasuries to compensate for their debased dollars. And the same dynamic is becoming Manifest in other debt-saturated Fiat Currency based nations. And higher rates mean that at some point Sovereign (and other) debt repayments become unpayable.

So consider specific Consequences already becoming Manifest and the Opportunities, and Risks, this provides.

For most developed nations such currency debasement serves, temporarily, to make their exports sell more easily and to provide the illusion that their citizens’ financial assets are appreciating, when in fact they are losing Purchasing Power, just as the Fed’s ongoing QE is generating Intensifying Inflation and Unemployment which is hidden by Bogus Statistics, as the Shadowstats quote indicates.

But there are two asset classes in which the already-intensifying inflation is hard to hide. The first is U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes, and MBS, The Fed has been buying these at an $85 billion per month clip to attempt to suppress/hide rising inflation (by keeping Treasury yields artificially low) and bolster the balance sheets of their Mega-Bank owners/allies. But, as the recent spike up in Treasury yields demonstrated, this is not a policy which can succeed indefinitely.

The mere talk of Tapering a few weeks ago catalyzed a 10-year Note weakening in which the yield shot up 100 BPS from 1.7ish to 2.7ish on the U.S. 10-year. Frankly, the Magnitude of the Spike Up in yields is yet another indication that argues that Real inflation is already intensifying.

And, when the timing is right, we expect to recommend seizing the Opportunity to Short the long-dated U.S. Treasuries once again.

Note well that Intensifying Real Inflation is also already showing up in Crude Oil.

The Crude Price is much harder for the Cartel (Note 1) to manipulate than Prices of other “Hard” Assets, (and harder even than their manipulating long bond prices as The Fed has done with some success thus far) because Crude is essential and gets used up soon after production. And, relative to other essential Commodities, Crude Demand is somewhat Inelastic. If, for example, the price of wheat spikes, consumer can switch to rice, corn, or soy. But so far as portable energy sources go, there is no good substitute for Crude Oil.

It is not merely that Crude Prices have been elevated by Fears of Intensified Mideast Conflict in Syria and Egypt. So long as War and Revolution are percolating in the Mideast, WTI Crude should remain high. Specifically so long as Egypt is unstable and thus the Suez Canal Oil Transport Corridor is at risk, expect Crude to remain elevated. If that Risk diminishes, (unlikely soon) one might expect a drop.

But note that it is not merely the Suez and general Mideast War Risk (to Supply) that has impelled WTI Crude to $105ish as we write, it is the very Real Ongoing QE-generated intensifying Price Inflation already being baked into the economy. Bogus Official Statistics serve to hide it but the Crude Price “tells the truth” and reveals it. And Fracking, much-hyped by the Big Media has thus far only increased U.S. production to about 50% (from 40%) of U.S. consumption. Thus, it is no surprise to us that U.S. Crude inventories fell 5.1% in just two recent weeks, the biggest plunge since 1982, according to the EIA.

We emphasize that, notwithstanding “fracking” the USA still has to import half its oil consumption, which, coupled with increasing Import Demand coming from China, the Eurozone, and Japan as well, supports Prices. By the way, given even the most optimistic “Fracking” Production Projections, do not expect the USA to produce more than 60% to 65% of its own oil consumption, unless there is a Major Depression.

But there is a third Factor Contributing to Crude Price rises. Sophisticated Investors know that Equities are artificially levitated and, thus overbought and over bullish, that Treasuries are no longer a Safe Haven, and that Prices of the Real Safe Havens, Gold and Silver are subject to Cartel Price Suppression. Opportunity: thus Crude Oil is becoming a Safe Haven of Choice as a Relatively Reliable Store of Value with Great Appreciation Potential.

Conclusion: Both rising U.S. Treasury yields and rising Crude Prices tell us: Inflation is intensifying.

One other indication which, but for Cartel Prices Suppression, would have already told us that inflation is intensifying, is Gold and Silver Prices.

Four straight Up Days for Gold last week legitimately gave encouragement to us Gold and Silver partisans as did the intensifying Massive Physical demand.

“Physical Gold delivered by buyers by China’s largest bullion bourse [Shanghai] in the first half of this year matched the entire amount taken from its vaults in 2012, and was more than double the country’s annual production. Output in China, the world’s largest Gold producer, reached a record 403 tons last year…”

“Gold Deliveries From Shanghai Bourse Jump on Physical Demand”
Bloomberg News, 7/15/13

 

But all of us should acknowledge that technically, so far, that Up move is only a mini-Rally in Gold’s trading range in what is still technically in a Bear Market for Gold and Silver. Indeed, The Cartel is still quite active in the Price Suppression “Game”. We are not baffled by Gold Price Suppression, unlike Grant Williams.

“..the bizarre price action of the last six months has run counter to most logical assumptions and has been a source of great frustration to many – including Grant Williams. Cyprus should have been a hugely positive tailwind for gold. But it wasn't. The ongoing money printing should have provided support for gold. But it hasn't. The talk of tapering should have had a minor but noticeable effect on gold, given its healthy recent correction. But it didn't. Sustained data suggesting a voracious appetite for the physical metal not only in Asia but in Western countries, too, should have led to a bounce on the COMEX. But it hasn't.

The whole thing is as baffling as Kim Kardashian's fame.”

ZeroHedge, 7/16/13

 

JBGJ’s comment about price suppression is surely true.

“Wednesday was as clear a demonstration as any reasonable observer could need that there is a supervising force active in gold.”

But, even given the aforementioned, these are an increasing number of catalysts impelling a dramatic Upside reversal at some point (Regarding our Specific Forecasts see Notes 2, 3, and 4 below). Physical Demand (as above) is still intensifying, especially from India and China (now importing more than it produces), and China is now the World’s number one Producer and that Physical Demand is the ultimate Catalyst for a launch.

In addition, the dramatic recent increase in U.S. Treasury Yields may provide yet another catalyst (as an inflation indicator) and in the next few weeks too. (Interest rate levels are not themselves a Precious Metals Price Suppressor, unless they approach Volcker-era highs.) And that would be helped along by the Bullion (Cartel) Banks Massive Reduction of their Short Positions, which they have already achieved. Indeed, the Central Banks continue to accumulate Physical and East to West Demand for Physical intensifies. And then there is the matter of the rapidly depleting Comex and LBMA Inventories of Physical which we have discussed before!

Nonetheless, The Cartel is still Quite Active in Precious Metals Price Suppression. But The Cartel is having increasing difficulty sustaining its Takedowns, and a Great Launch Up for Gold and Silver Prices will come. (Regarding Timing, see our Forecasts.) So there is now a Great Profit and Wealth Preservation Opportunity in purchasing Physical Gold and Silver at these prices.

Regarding Commodities-in-general, then we expect to see the whole Commodities Sector take off sooner rather than later, for many of the aforementioned reasons. After all, Major Central Banks are intensifying their Money Printing War and this is price inflationary for Commodities (including Precious Metals) as well as Equities. And Key Technicals support the forecast of a Commodities Launch sooner rather than Later.

Regarding Equities, mainly because of ongoing Inflation-generating QE (i.e. Quick and Easy profits for Wall Street and the Mega-Banks) Equities Markets have again made all-time highs. Indeed, Equities-in-general are still technically in Rally mode, despite worsening Fundamentals.

Indeed, the Technicals virtually all show the Fundamental Equities Trend is still Bullish, for Now.

In sum, we continue to forecast that that Last Gasp Rally will take Equities to new all-time highs, as a result of Central Bank Money Printing to be followed by an Equities Crash about which we have been warning (as do seven recent Hindenburg Omen signals).

By that time, the Chinese bubbles will be seriously deflating, so expect no Salvation from China. Indeed, thanks to The Fed, the Chinese Yuan will then have become the World’s Reserve Currency, because The Big Kahuna, Fed-generated Inflation- will have destroyed the Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar.

 

Deepcaster
July 19, 2013

 

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 2: We live in an era in which Juice (Central Bank Juice, not orange juice) is The Major Force moving most markets. Witness, after all the talk of Tapering, the market response to Bernanke’s recent comment that the Fed would continue “highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future...”

The $US tanked by over 100 BPS and Equities launched to all-time highs. But that consequent Equities Strength is not a result of Economic Health. With Real Inflation and Unemployment rising in the U.S. (per Shadowstats.com) and Eurozone, Equities markets cannot stay artificially levitated forever.

But there is one indication that tends to “tell the truth” about Real Inflation more than other more easily manipulable Asset classes. And it is now Flashing.

So how to play Juiced Markets? Consider that Flashing indication and our Strategic Comments and Forecasts in our latest Alert, “Juiced Markets Strategy & Forecasts: U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Crude Oil, Gold & Silver, & Equities” posted in ‘Alerts Cache’ on deepcaster.com.

Note 3: Since the May highs, Equities Markets exhibited a sideways chop with a downward bias, until just the past few days mini-Rally which has impelled Equities above their 2013 highs.

But within the next few weeks we can expect certain Key Sectors to begin Rallying hard and others to Fall dramatically.

Deepcaster identifies these Key Sectors and indicates why they can be expected to Rally hard or Fall dramatically in the next few weeks or very few months, in Deepcaster’s Alert, “Key Sectors to Rally/Fall; Forecasts: U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Gold & Silver, Equities, & Crude Oil,” recently posted on Deepcaster.com.

And you will note there is one Critical Sector which we expect to dramatically plunge.

Note 4: Near-Term (next few weeks) versus Mid-Term (next very few months) Forecasts are looking very Different for Key Sectors.

And there is an Extraordinary Buy Opportunity in One Key Sector.

To see the Differences for these Key Sectors and the Buy Opportunity, read Deepcaster’s  ‘Alert’, “Near-Term Versus Mid-Term Forecasts & Buy Reco: U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Gold & Silver, Crude Oil, & Equities,” posted in the ‘Alerts Cache’ on deepcaster.com.


By  Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

 


The eurozone is still a mess. Instead of improvements, I just see more troubles. Economic slowdown in the region’s debt-infested nations is already staggering, but even those that were able to fight it are now experiencing huge problems.

Around this time last year, the European Central Bank (ECB) was very clear about its plan for the eurozone crisis. It said that it’s “ready to do whatever it takes.”

Back then it was the greatest relief to the market—the announcement calmed the rising debt rates in the eurozone and sent a wave of optimism toward the key stock indices.

But it was just a short-term fix. Take my word for it: economic slowdown in the eurozone is here to stay for a long time.

Take, for example, France—the second-biggest economy in the eurozone. France used to have a credit rating of AAA, according to credit rating agency Fitch Ratings, which is the best rating among its other eurozone peers. But France has since been downgraded a notch by the credit rating agency. (Source:Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2013.)

Fitch cited that the eurozone country’s national debt compared to its gross domestic product (GDP) reached 91.7% in the first quarter of 2013. It expects the French national debt ratio to peak at 96.0% in 2014.

Fitch also provided an anemic outlook for the French economy. The credit rating agency expects the country to witness an economic slowdown this year, following mediocre growth in 2012. Unemployment in this France is also troublesome. It stands at a 15-year high of 10.9%.

Germany, the biggest economic hub in the euro region, is experiencing turbulence as well. It’s not seeing an outright economic slowdown, but it’s certainly not far from it. Exports from the country plummeted nine percent in May to 38.1 billion euros. German investor confidence also declined for the first time in three months—suggesting that the economic outlook isn’t very bright. (Source: Bloomberg, July 16, 2013.)

Here’s what all the economic slowdown in the eurozone comes down to: the corporate earnings of the companies trading on key stock indices.

Dear reader, you need to keep in mind that the eurozone, all 17 member nations combined, consumes a significant amount of goods and services. If the unemployed in the region hits a record high, major hubs start to slow down, and demand becomes the next victim.

In the first quarter, we saw 11 of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average companies provide their sales figures from the eurozone. Nine of the 11 reported a decline year-over-year. (Source: FactSet, May 28, 2013.)

We are currently in the midst of second-quarter earnings season. I expect more companies to show struggles in the region. My reason is very simple: even if we disregard the already struggling eurozone nations like Greece and Spain, stronger nations like France are suffering an economic slowdown, and Germany is struggling. There will be consequences.

Michael’s Personal Notes:

Face it: there is no real economic growth in the U.S. economy. The only reasons the key stock indices keep rising are nothing more than easy money and false optimism. They are anything but a key indicator, and you should not use them as one.

The reality of the U.S. economy is completely the opposite of what’s happening in the markets.

I often say in these pages that economic growth only occurs in the U.S. economy when consumers feel good and spend money. But I see more and more evidence of consumers not spending—many are actually struggling. Don’t buy into the mainstream media’s belief in economic growth.

Instead, look at indicators like the U.S. retail and food services sales for June. They increased 0.4% from the previous month to $422.8 billion and have increased 5.7% from June of 2012. In the second quarter (April through June), retail and food services sales in the U.S. economy were up 4.6% from the same period a year ago. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July 15, 2013.)

While that might sound impressive, the chart below will show you something you won’t see the in the mainstream. It shows the percentage change in retail and food services sales from a year ago.



Clearly, the retail sales increases aren’t nearly as amazing as they seem at first glance. The rate of change is actually slower than it was a year ago—and has been trending downward since 2011.

But there’s further proof consumers are not buying. Manufacturing and trade inventories for the month of May have increased 0.1% from April, and 3.8% from a year ago.

And some industries are feeling it worse than others. Inventories at motor vehicle and part dealers were up 12.7%, and inventories for clothing and clothing accessories stores increased 4.6%. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July 15, 2013.)

Here’s what is actually happening: consumers in the U.S. economy are spending their money on basic needs. From April to June, consumer spending at gas stations has increased little more than 3.3%.

What’s even more troubling is that crude oil prices have jumped due to tensions in the Middle East. That means that gas prices will soar even higher. And that will result in even more trouble for consumers in the U.S. economy.

On top of all this, contrary to economic growth, Americans have another problem. Instead of getting full-time jobs, many are only able to get part-time work. This year, on average, the number of part-time jobs that have been added each month in the U.S. economy, seasonally adjusted, sits at 93,000. But only about 22,000 full-time jobs have been added. (Source: Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2013.)

Dear reader, I find myself tired of saying this, but numbers don’t lie. They are saying economic growth in the U.S. economy is simply a myth. You must keep in mind that consumers are the driving force behind any economic growth in the U.S. economy. The longer they suffer, the longer it will take the U.S. economy to get back on its feet.

We may see higher corporate earnings from big-cap companies for now. They are buying back their shares, but consumers are the ones who buy their products. The numbers will eventually catch up, and their corporate earnings will suffer.


“Shadowstats Alternate Unemployment Measure rose to a series high 23.4% in June up from 23% in May, 2013.”

shadowstats.com, 7/5/2013

 

Three Key Economic/Resource Realities provide Opportunities (or Threats if unacknowledged) for Investors going forward.

Deepcaster periodically publicizes and analyzes such Opportunities/Threats because much of the Mainstream Media either fails to report, or blacks out, or spins and distorts such Critical Information.

First, Deepcaster periodically provides Updates on the Real Numbers on the U.S. Economy and other economies so Investors will not have to Rely on Bogus Official Ones in making Investing decisions.

In fact, Real unemployment is increasing in the U.S.A., and has now risen to a record 23.4%! (Note 1)

This is significant not only because of the devastating impact on the poor souls who cannot find work, (and reflects indeed the increasing impoverishment of the USA’s middle class) but also because it means that the U.S. Consumer – 70% of the U.S. Economy – is not going to be able to generate or sustain an economic recovery.

Shadowstats numbers also “Warn” that the U.S. is already Threshold Hyperinflationary with Real CPI at 9% (generated by ongoing Massive Central Banks’ QE) and Real GDP a Negative -1.98%. See Shadowstats Chart (Note 1). These increasing CPI numbers signal an Opportunity for those who Invest with an eye to the coming Hyperinflation and a Threat to those who do not. See Notes 2, 3 and 4 below re Specific Recommendations.

The Focus of another Opportunity/Threat is on the Prospects for Stability in the Mideast and its effect on Crude Oil supplies and Prices.

We have earlier pointed out that even with the increased Oil Production resulting from fracking, total oil production now in the U.S.A. has now risen to only half of consumption, and (contrary to Mainstream Media generated Opinion) not likely ever to exceed 2/3 of consumption, absent a Depression. And other Major Developed and Developing Economies such as the Eurozone and China consume much more then they produce, and will likely do so for a long time to come.

Therefore, the U.S. and Developed world will continue to rely on the Mideast for Crude for the foreseeable future.

But consider the prospects for Mideast stability, and specifically the ability to safely ship Oil through Egypt’s Suez Canal, in light of the following

“…it's worth revisiting   the analysis Chris wrote 2 years ago…

“While the power players are now different, the underlying factors persist.

 

“Here are a few quite relevant statistics about Egypt

 

The relentless math:

 

Population 1960:  27.8 million
Population 2008:  81.7 million
Current population growth rate: 2% per annum (a 35-year doubling rate)
Population in 2046 after another doubling:  164 million

 

Rainfall average over whole country:  ~ 2 inches per year
Highest rainfall region:  Alexandria, 7.9 inches per year
Arable land (almost entirely in the Nile Valley):  3%
Arable land per capita:  0.04 Ha (400 m 2)
Arable land per capita in 2043: 0.02 Ha
Food imports: 40% of requirements
Grain imports: 60% of requirements

 

Net oil exports: Began falling in 1997, went negative in 2007
Oil production peaked in 1996
Cost of oil rising steeply
Cost of oil and food tightly linked (since portable fuel, i.e., oil/gasoline is the primary energy source for food production –Ed.)

 

The future of Egypt will be shaped by these few biophysical facts -- a relentless form of math that is hardly unique to Egypt, by the way -- and it matters very little who is in power.

“The interesting part is that these facts have been in plain view for decades, building into economic and social pressures that were suddenly unleashed in a wave of social and political unrest. How was it that such obvious things escaped notice for so long before they suddenly reared up into plain view? Instead of being a surprising exception to the rule, we should instead brace ourselves against the idea that this is just the way things tend to work. 

“Back to the main story. Without persistent (and rising) food imports, Egypt cannot feed itself. It has managed to cover up the shortfall by having enough oil to export, but, like every country, their oil reserves are finite and eventually they'll face a day of reckoning.  

“The oil situation in Egypt has only very recently become an enormous and unavoidable issue.

 

“The re-emergence of political turmoil we're witnessing is quite predictable from the "relentless math" Chris laid out. Or perhaps more directly put:   resources don't care about politics .” (Emphasis added)

 

“Revisiting Egypt’s Warning,” Adam Taggart, peakprosperity.com, 07/03/2013

 

The principles reflected in the foregoing facts (e.g., regarding population carrying capacity) about Egypt can be applied to every country.

They reveal one (of several) demographic fallacy(ies).

That is the Fallacy that Population Growth is always or usually Good for an Economy and the Citizens of that Nation. (See carryingcapacity.org for more on Population/Resource carrying capacity.)

Egypt’s population has been doubling every 35 years and it has a huge cohort of unemployed youth.

Apart from the fact that such a huge Youth Cohort creates high Revolutionary Potential, (as we are now witnessing) there are other Negatives.

Consider the high and rising Unemployment Rate (well in the double digits for Youth).

But how is it possible for an economy to increase jobs if virtually all of its arable land is already under cultivation, it is a net food importer and a net energy importer. Providing the essentials --- food, potable water, and energy – are the necessary conditions for any other kind of sustainable economic health or development.

No amount of Tech Prowess can significantly increase Food Production without a “reservoir” of arable land and potable water, or increase hydrocarbon reserves at all, if the hydrocarbons are not there.

In short, in light of its resources base, Egypt has already overshot its Optimum Population Carrying Capacity. [ Carrying capacity refers to the number of individuals who can be supported in a given area within natural resource limits, and without degrading the natural social, cultural and economic environment for present and future generations. The carrying capacity for any given area is not fixed. It can be altered somewhat by improved technology, but not to an unlimited degree. Mainly, it is changed for the worse by pressures which accompany a population increase. As the environment is degraded, carrying capacity actually shrinks, leaving the environment no longer able to support even the number of people who could formerly have lived in the area on a sustainable basis. No population can live beyond the environment's carrying capacity for very long.]

Thus the consequences for Mideast stability and future Crude Oil Availability are not promising. But they do provide an Opportunity to profit from Crude Oil Price Rises.

Ominously, other countries in the developing (and developed) world present similar problematic profiles (consider India and Bangladesh, for example).

Such “Net Importer” low carrying capacity countries, when overpopulated, present a Real Drag on the economy.

The Third Opportunity/Threat is provided by The Fed’s apparently Intentional Policy of Creating Confusion. Will they taper or won’t they, and if so, when?

For example, the “News” dribbling out before the FOMC Minutes were recently released suggested they would begin Tapering this year, probably in September.

But when Bernanke subsequently indicated that The Fed’s QE would continue as long as necessary – and The Fed would adopt “a highly accommodative policy for the forseeable future” -- it had the effect of boosting Equities to all-time highs. The critical Fact is that these all-time highs are artificially created by Q.E. and not by fundamental Economic Strength.

In fact, (as we have argued elsewhere) The Fed can not end QE (Witness what happened in the Markets when they just hinted they would) until “Forced” to do so because the consequent Hyperinflation has spun out of control and/or we have Serious Stagflation. Indeed QE to Infinity is with us until such occurs.

Meanwhile, Investors can invest and profit and protect wealth from knowing that QE is not going away any time soon, and that it will inevitably create Hyperinflation, and by acting on that knowledge.

Best regards,

Deepcaster July 12, 2013

Note 1 : Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider:

Bogus Official Numbers

vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)
Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation   reported June 18, 2013
1.36% / 8.99%
U.S. Unemployment   reported July 5, 2013
7.6% / 23.4%
U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline   reported June 26, 2013
1.62% / (negative) -1.98%

U.S. M3

  reported July 5, 2013 (Month of June, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report    /
(e) 4.37% (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.189 Trillion!)

Note 2: Since the May highs, Equities Markets exhibited a sideways chop with a downward bias, until just the past few days mini-Rally which has impelled Equities back near their 2013 highs.

But within the next few weeks we can expect certain Key Sectors to begin Rallying hard and others to Fall dramatically.

Deepcaster identifies these Key Sectors and indicates why they can be expected to Rally hard or Fall dramatically in the next few weeks or very few months, in Deepcaster’s latest Alert, “Key Sectors to Rally/Fall; Forecasts: U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Gold & Silver, Equities, & Crude Oil,” just posted on Deepcaster.com.

And you will note there is one Critical Sector which we expect to dramatically plunge.

Note 3: Are two Key Sectors reversing powerfully?

Or are we just witnessing Head Fakes, soon to be re-reversed powerfully?

There is increasing evidence that the Reversal of one Key Sector is For Real and that this is the time to jump on board. The other appears to be a Head Fake.

To consider the evidence, consider our Forecasts in our recent Alert “Key Sector Reversals?!!; QE Forecast Shocker; Forecasts: U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Crude Oil, Equities, Gold & Silver,” posted at deepcaster .com.

And we just issued a Shocking Forecast for QE.

Note 4: Near-Term (next few weeks) versus Mid-Term (next very few months) Forecasts are looking very Different for Key Sectors.

And there is an Extraordinary Buy Opportunity in One Key Sector.

To see the Differences for these Key Sectors and the Buy Opportunity, read Deepcaster’s recent ‘Alert’, “Near-Term Versus Mid-Term Forecasts & Buy Reco: U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Gold & Silver, Crude Oil, & Equities,” posted in the ‘Alerts Cache’ on deepcaster.com.


Inflation adjusted income

Posted by: satgent03

Tagged in: Untagged 

satgent03

I was attracted to this blog because of the multiple articles documenting how income has been degraded due to inflation and policies over the last 40 years or so.  It seems I read either here or somewhere else that 40% of US workers now make less in inflation adjusted wages than someone working for minimum wage in 1964.  Anyone know if that is true and what rate of inflation was used in those calculations?


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