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The Silver Lining

Silver offerings of all kinds: Miners, bullion, coins, market drivers, current news and DD.

Selection Criteria OUTLINE for Mining Stocks

Posted by: Brian Boutilier

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Brian Boutilier

Selection Criteria for Mining Stocks

I am gearing this toward the new folks to metals and miners companies.  I do this in hopes of lending some structure.  When one is disciplined about gathering fundamental information about a company, one has a better chance of making informed decisions.

 I described the screening process in limited detail in Screening Precious Metals and Mining Companies.   As mentioned in the first article, screening is the first of a two- part process.  First is the screening or (casting the net), second is the sorting (keepers from throw-backs). 

Selection Criterion Outline

I.               Abstract

a. Screening: We have looked at the snapshot of what the company does, the business model, where its projects and properties are.

b. Selection: Now we will look over the whole website in greater detail.  I will look over whatever corporate presentations are available.  We are starting to gain a sense of movement.  Where is this company, and what will change, and how soon?

II.             Stock Symbols           

a.  Screening: I will use several different websites to find the stock symbols for the company because the website does not always list all of its stock exchange symbols.

b.  Selection: What is the strength of the stock symbols?

1)    Toronto vs Toronto.V, OTC vs NYSE/AMEX.  The main exchanges are more stringent in their listing criterion, so the company should be stronger, and forced to be more honest and straight forward in their communications. 

2)    Is there robust trading?  Some of the smaller exchanges can be difficult to get in/out of a position.

III.           Share Structure

a. Screening: Found in “Investor Information”

b. Selection:  I will dig into the financials, and actually find out the break-out of the fine details

1) Is there also, Senior Notes, Warrants, Options? What are they priced at and when are they due?

2) What is the true fully diluted capitalization?  Below 100M, 100-300M or 300+.  How does that relate to the share price, and is there a sense of this company being undervalued?

3) Is the company capable of getting to the next phase in the life cycle of the mine without further dilution?

4) If dilution is imminent, will it unlock value, i.e. define or expand the resource, or get the resource from below ground to above?

 

IV.           Projects

a. Screening Information is usually found in the “projects” section of the website

b. Selection: At what stage are the various projects?

1) Explorers:  Will there be upcoming prospecting of new properties?  Drilling on finds after trenching or VMS overhead surveys?  Drilling to find a mineral resource?   Define a resource with Drifting or depth?  Shift the resources from mineralization to inferred or proven reserves.

2) Producers:  Increase in capacity, production rate, margin?  Opening another mill, plant? 

V.             Financials

a. Screening: Usually under “Investor Information”

b. Selection:  High cash and equivalents.  Manageable current and long-term liabilities

1) Explorers: High percentage of exploration vs administrative expenses.

2) Producers: Closing in on profitability for new producers.  Increase production rates, margin and diluted gain.

VI.           Corporate Structure

a. Screening: Again listed under “Investor Information” or “Corporate” depending on the company

b. Selection:  Is senior management capable of the mission, vision they set forth. 

1) Do they have a good blend of business vs geologic expertise for explorers.

2) Mining Engineers and Mill managers for producers. 

3) Marketing/Fund Raisers or reputation to generate capital. 

4) Does the board of directors have the connections, financial experience to generate capital, Joint Ventures or whatever is necessary to go forward with their plans.

VII      News Releases

a. Screening: Usually under “News”, occasional under “Investor Information”

b. Selection: Are they achieving their goals set forth in last years corporate presentation?  Are they on time and making deadlines?  Are they finding the rock, expanding the resources or improving production, margin?

VIII           Media

a. Screening: Usually Under “Investor Information”, looking for corporate presentations.

b.  Selection:  Are they achieving the goals set forth, and are they realistic?  Are the annual presentation changing, evolving in a positive manner?

1) What are the board and blogs saying.  Tone of the blogs?  Descriptive and upbeat or angry and divisive.  Why?


Mining Summaries

Posted by: Brian Boutilier

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Brian Boutilier

Jeff N was chatting with silverun this am.  They raised some good points about a couple of silver companies.  Jeff also mentioned that I do the mining summaries.  That true, I have been doing them since we moved over to the beta site, in July of last year.  I 've done 70 or so.  

Doing the summaries is teaching me to be more objective.  I am getting used to looking over the business model, location and grades of properties, the financials, share structure and to some extent the corporate structure of these companies.  

Even beyond the business, before investing, I am trying to be more cognizant of th lifecycle of the mine(s), and am trying to improve the timing of my investments.  While I don't  do investments as a business, it has been a hobby for while.  

Chad, Jeff and I love to bat around the companies we are looking at, and we all benefit from the interaction.   We vary a great deal in term of investment style, even though we may like some of the same companies.


I will be happy to look over stock/companies you have and interest in.  I will either post you feedback/information, if not post a summary of the company on the website.   I find with many of the potential investments, the devil is in the details. 

I have attempted to do this in the group DUALLIES.  I began that on the old site, as a venue for interaction.  I started it to talk about dual listed stock on both the TSX and in other markets such as the AMEX or OTC/PK etc...  It has been overshadowed with the bulletin boards, and many ongoing discussions.  

I still don't see many discussion about investment style, vs just economics.  I would love to here what everyone thinks about the timing and weighting of their investments.  Boot


Canadian Hockey

Posted by: Brian Boutilier

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Brian Boutilier
Was that a collective sigh of relief I sensed, as Canada blew past Germany in the qualifying round?

Goading into Activity

Posted by: Brian Boutilier

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Brian Boutilier

Folks I think Jeff is goading me into writing more.  He's pushing my buttons.  I have had much time to think about the Army, armed conflict and conflict resolution.  Perhaps I should air our my opinions a bit more.  My writing is raw though.

We are both enraged by acts of violence.  We both act in our own way to oppose this.

Acts of manipulation for selfish profit is an undercurrent that Jeff, Chad and I address with through his articles daily.

We at Bullion Bulls certainly speak out against manipulation and injustice as it relates to the world monetarily.  However one is hard pressed to seperate the world of money from politics and policy. Hence our current discussion.

I stew over these situations  but write very little.   I do try to make good personal choices, and act in good character as much as possible.  I know of no short-cut to integrity, it is the slow path.

Perhaps you will read of my struggles as they related to my Army or Investors career a bit more. Let me know if that would hold any interest.  Boot 


Stop Losses

Posted by: Brian Boutilier

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Brian Boutilier
It days like today that I don't use stop losses.  I buy into companies that have the fundamentals to go the distance.  I like my positions and wish to keep them.  The sharks are circling today, and stopping folks out, gobbling up cheap shares.  Wonder whats brewing in the near term.  Silver is still where to be IMHO.  Good time to buy coins and bullion too.  Boot

Silver Shorts

Posted by: Brian Boutilier

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Brian Boutilier
Looks like the big banks are giving silver spot a wedgie.  No surprise.  My reaction is to buy the big silver producers in the dip.    Bargain basement stuff.  Boot


By: Lorimer Wilson

www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com

A comparison of the returns of the various gold investment alternatives achieved in 2009 clearly shows that gold bugs were misguided in focusing on gold bullion alone. Why? Because gold was NOT where the major profits were realized - not by a long shot! 

Gold Bullion up 24%

While gold bullion was ‘only’ up 24%* (and silver up 49.3%*) it did nothing more than match the performance of the S&P 500 and the Reuters/Jefferies CRB indices at 23.5%* for both. Why all the hype regarding gold bullion over the past few months when most other commodities and their related stocks and long-term warrants did so much better?

HUI up 42%

A basket of large-cap gold and silver stocks, as represented by the HUI, was up 42.2%* in (the Gold Miners Index and its ETF proxy were up 36.4%*).

S&P/TSX up 52%

An investment in Canada’s heavily commodity based S&P/TSX a year ago would have generated a 52.3%* return in U.S. dollars.

Commodity Companies Index (CCI) up 126%

Those investors who invested in a basket of stocks consisting of all 36 companies involved in commodities that have long-term (i.e. 24 months duration) warrants trading, as included in my proprietary CCI consisting of

a)     29 companies involved in the mining, developing or exploring of gold and/or silver ( 22), uranium (1), cobalt (1), molybdenum (1), lead (1), coal (2) and iron ore (1)

b)     3 companies involved in buying secondary gold or silver production, i.e. royalty streamers

c)     2 companies involved in oil and gas production and exploration and

d)     2 merchant banks involved in financing commodity-related projects,

would have experienced an impressive gain of 125.8%* in 2009.

Commodity Company Warrants Index (CCWI) up 242% in 2009

The very, very few in the know who invested in the basket of 47 long-term warrants associated with the above commodity categories (6 companies offer two or three long-term warrant hence the larger number) that trade on the Canadian or U.S. stock exchanges, as per my proprietary CCWI, experienced an amazing increase of 242.3%* in 2009. Yes, that is correct: 242.3%!!

For those many who are not familiar with warrants they give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to purchase the common shares of the company at a specific price within a specific time period after which, if not exercised, they expire worthless although they can be traded throughout the period just as with the associated stock.

In previous articles I have gone on and on about the leverage advantage (i.e. enhanced returns) of warrants and here is a perfect case in point. The warrants in the CCWI generated twice the returns of their associated stock in the CCI with the same degree of risk. That’s the major advantage of warrants vis-a-vis their associated stocks. I will address the specific leverage the warrants achieved in next week’s article.

Gold and Silver Companies Index (GSCI) up 85%

To be totally objective in this analysis, however, the average increase in the stock of the 22 companies with long term warrants trading that were exclusively involved in the mining, developing or exploring of gold and/or silver or in royalty operations were up, according to my proprietary GSCI, an impressive +84.5%* for the year.

Precious Metals Warrants Index (PMWI) up 140%

It gets even better! The long-term warrants of the 22 companies involved in the mining, developing or exploring of gold and/or silver or in royalty operations appreciated, according to my proprietary PMWI, by 139.7%*.

Royalty Company Stock up 93%

Had you had just invested in the stock of the 3 companies with long-term warrants that buy the secondary gold and silver production from base metal miners at fixed prices you would have had a 92.6%* return in 2009.

Royalty Company Warrants up 213%

And best yet the long term warrants of these 3 companies were up 213.0%* in 2009. How’s that for enhanced returns!

Where Should You Invest in 2010?

As you will recall I recently wrote an article entitled “Gold:Silver Ratio Screams Buy all Things Silver!” whose conclusions, coupled with the conclusions in this article, strongly suggest that the buy of this decade will be the warrants of gold and silver mining companies and, more particularly, the warrants of gold and silver royalty companies and specifically the warrants of silver royalty companies.

Conclusion

Don’t follow the herd when it comes to investing in gold (and silver) in 2010. Remember, gold was ‘only’ up 24%* in 2009 and the HUI ‘only’ 42%* yet the long-term warrants of the gold and silver mining companies were up 140%* and the long-term warrants of the gold and silver royalty companies were up 213%*. If the current bull market in commodities continues in 2010 it behoves you to seriously consider investing some money accordingly. The next time you read an article hyping gold consider the better returns available invest in the alternatives to gold bullion.

(*All performance return calculations in this article have been on the basis of realizing profits in U.S. dollar terms. Posting criteria does not permit me to name the companies in the GSCI/PMWI or CCI/CCWI so please visit my site and look under the "Warrants/LEAPS/Options" section for articles on "GSCI/PMWI Constituent Companies" and “CCI/CCWI Constituent Companies” for such lists.)

 

 


Do Canada's Oil Sands Deserve World's Dirtiest Commodity Label?

Posted by: Brian Boutilier

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Brian Boutilier


 

By: Lorimer Wilson

 

www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com

 

 

“When you think of Canada, which qualities come to mind: the world's peacekeeper, the friendly nation, a liberal counterweight to the harsher pieties of its southern neighbour, decent, civilised, fair, well-governed? Think again. This country's government is now behaving with all the sophistication of a chimpanzee's tea party.

 

From Dudley Do-Right to Corrupt Petro-State?

So amazingly destructive has Canada become ... I am watching the astonishing spectacle of a beautiful, cultured nation turning itself into a corrupt petro-state. Canada is slipping down the development ladder, retreating from a complex, diverse economy towards dependence on a single primary resource, which happens to be the dirtiest commodity known to man. The price of this transition is the brutalisation of the country ... Until now I believed that the nation that has done most to sabotage a new climate change agreement was the United States. I was wrong. The real villain is Canada." The Guardian, United Kingdom.

 

"Canada, the Dudley Do-Right of the international community, insists on exploiting its vast and dirty oil reserves in the so-called "tar sands" under Alberta. The intro to an article by British eco-scold George Monbiot declared: "Canada’s image lies in tatters. It is now to climate what Japan is to whaling." The South Florida Sun Sentinel, United States

 

Is Canada's Sullied Image Deserved?

Says Eric Reguly of Canada's Globe and Mail: "Canada has had a rough ride at the Copenhagen climate-change summit. It is unloved, even despised, by the scientists, the environmental groups and most developing countries. It will leave the summit with a sullied image – the arrogant, rich country that is part of the problem, not part of the solution.

 

This image is both deserved and undeserved. It is undeserved in the sense that Canada's new emissions output target – 20 per cent less than 2006's level by 2020 – is actually slightly more than the [17%] U.S. pledge. And get this: When you dig into the numbers, the drop between 2006 (to use Canada's arbitrary base-year number) and 2020 is roughly the same as the European Union's [20% - 30%]. Canada is also pumping small fortunes into clean-energy technology but the Americans and the Europeans will emerge from the summit as good guys, if not heroes. Not the Canadians."

 

The Pros and Cons of Canada's Actions

Julius Melnitzer of Canada's Financial Post reports that [from the get-go] Canada was not prepared to act independently of the U.S. on climate change legislation. "Rather, our policy will always closely parallel U.S. law [because] when push comes to shove, we have little choice."

 

"It's hard to imagine Canada not following on the U.S. lead because we desperately need to get inside their carbon market and we desperately need to ensure that their laws don't work against the interests of our exporters,' said Gray Taylor of [the law firm] Bennett Jones in Toronto. "Harmonization will be critical not so much from the perspective of regulatory ease but from the perspective of financial necessity," said Elizabeth DeMarco, who leads Macleod Dixon's energy practice in Toronto.

 

"Whatever and whenever the U.S. decides what it is going to do, Prime Minister Harper will follow suit," said Jean Piette, chair of Ogilvy Renault's environmental practice in Montreal.

 

Be that as it may Reguly goes on to say (with Nathan Vanderklippe) in an edited excerpt from another article: "Of the almost 200 countries who attended the recent Copenhagen conference few of them had [and still have] a more blackened image [than Canada]... What shocks some countries is Canada's response to Kyoto. When it ratified the treaty in 2002, then Prime Minister Jean Chrétien vowed that Canada would reduce emissions by 6 per cent by 2012 over the 1990 base year [yet] they are up 26 per cent or more instead as a result of the turbo-charged expansion of the Alberta oil sands, one of the single biggest sources of planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions."

 

“Canada did not take its Kyoto obligations seriously, particularly under Stephen Harper, and that goes against Canada's image,” said Saleemul Huq, a lead author of the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, the United Nations scientific body that assesses climate change. "Prime Minister Stephen Harper has committed to a 20 per cent reduction by 2020, but from a new base year – 2006 – when the Canadian economy was on fire. [To emphasize its position] in late 2007 Canada blocked a Commonwealth resolution to support binding emissions targets for industrialized countries."

 

Sarah Powell of Davies Ward Phillips & Vineberg also believes Ottawa could have done more. "The government originally said it was going to establish a Canadian regime and then harmonize it instead of just being a follower. They haven't gone about it that way and that's not acceptable because the government's stumble means that Canadian business, which could have had the advantage of domestic experience with GHG regulation and a carbon market, will be left behind once the Americans gear up."

 

Shabby Image Not Entirely Justified

Not everyone thinks Canada's shabby image is justified, however. Matthew Bateson, director of energy and climate for the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (whose members include B.C. Hydro and Canadian oil sands giant Suncor) says “It's unfair to paint Canada with a black brush.” He notes that, in spite of the fact that Canada only generates 2% of the world's greenhouse gases, "Canada is one of the world leaders in developing carbon capture and storage (CCS), a new technology that strips carbon dioxide from the flue gases of coal-burning plants or refineries and buries it underground. CCS is one of the technologies needed to transition to a new, low-carbon economy and Canada is putting its money where its mouth is” [and the oil sands are just 4% of Canada's total emissions with transportation accounting for the highest GHG percentage right across the country].

 

Reguly concludes that "much of Canada’s task lies in trying to dab green onto the grubby oil sands – or at least convincing others that some green exists but its efforts have been decidedly low-key and ineffectual. To the public, the image of the oil sands has been shaped by Greenpeace campaigners. Indeed, even some of Canada's respected business leaders acknowledge that they have fallen behind in the image campaign." [Even the Premier of Ontario, Canada's largest and most populous province, has chimed in recently suggesting that Canada's moral authority in the world has been damaged by the lack of leadership on the climate file and that "when it comes to the climate change debate we've been punching below our weight."]

 

“The industry has to accept some responsibility,” said Murray Edwards, vice-chairman of oil sands miner Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. of Calgary “It has not been as pro-active as it should have been or could have been over the last decade in making sure the public understands the balance in the oil sands between the economy and the environment.” One company, Cenovus Energy Inc., has bought TV spots aimed to show the benefits of its products. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers delivers representatives to various debates to help shape the “conversation” and works to correct inaccuracies in anything written about the oil sands but even strong voices aren't getting much attention.

 

1606 Dead Ducks and Counting

“This clearly has the hallmarks of being a situation in which the reputation is under siege and it needs to be managed,” said Niraj Dawar, a professor of marketing communications at the Richard Ivey School of Business.

 

“A picture of a dead duck [1,606 died in an oil sands tailings pond] is far more powerful than the data or information that they can provide. What they need to come up with are pictures of their own.”

 

 

 


Merry Christmas!

Posted by: Brian Boutilier

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Brian Boutilier
Merry Christmas, or enjoy your respective holidays.  Cheers and goodnight.

 By: Lorimer Wilson

www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com

 

“Lack of confidence in the gold price bull prevails. Almost everyone seems obligated to hedge when predicting price, in spite of having marshaled an array of intimidating and compelling facts and arguments” says Arnold Bock and in his article below he questions why there is so much reluctance. Words: 1312

Bank of America suggests that gold will reach $1,500. Talk about going out on a limb with a high risk prediction!

Why are Precious Metals Analysts and Financial Experts so Cautious?

Why is it that precious metals analysts are frequently so resistant to recognizing or accepting reality? Many technical chartists seem welded to the lines and shapes in front of them. How useful is a gold chart using data which spans a period of less than forty years, the time since President Nixon took the US dollar off the fixed price gold standard in 1971? Extrapolating trading patterns and imposing conclusions from other investment sectors is just not a valid alternative. Those of us who rely on economic fundamentals also tend to exhibit excessive timidity.

Of course there is no shortage of financial experts conversant with the broader financial markets, many of whom it seems make their living denigrating commodities generally and precious metals in particular. Their negative line of thinking remains current even after nine consecutive years where gold bullion, valued in US dollars, has experienced year over year price gains. Stated another way, over those years the gold price has risen about 400 percent. These same folks can be counted on to advise us that gold is long overdue for a major correction and that it is now entering the bubble bursting phase. Interestingly, these self same bubble specialists spent the past decade exhorting all and sundry to participate in the dot com and housing bubbles in spite of their looming and predictable collapse.

The Reasons for the Current Gold Bull Market are Many

We are all aware of the reasons cited for the current bull market in gold. The fact is gold is the only “real” money amongst the paper coupons and digital versions we use daily. Supply is also severely limited by virtue of the constraints in finding and extracting more from the earth. For example, all the gold ever mined would fit into a cube 19 meters square. Even more riveting is the realization that the composite world-wide market capitalization of the all the publically traded gold mining companies is less than the market cap of individual companies such as Wal-Mart or Microsoft. Simply stated, gold and the precious metals mining sector are barely visible on the typical investor’s horizon.

Demand for gold is now expanding dramatically from investors seeking protection against inflating and devaluing currencies, especially the US dollar, the world’s main and virtually exclusive means of pricing commodities and manufactured products. It is also the primary method of settling international trade accounts. Central banks, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds and investment pools such as pension funds and insurance companies are all awakening to the need for safe haven investments and hedges beyond the fragile dollar, or increasingly, to protect themselves from the dollar itself.

In spite of the factors outlined above, I remain baffled by the reluctance of knowledgeable analysts to entertain the prospect of substantially and even dramatically higher precious metals prices ahead? Even when all the relevant fundamentals have been enumerated, explained and quantified, the obvious conclusions are seldom adequately articulated. Why? A lack of confidence in the arguments presented?

How the “Political Process” is Affecting the Price of Gold

Maybe something more central is missing leading to this gold price timidity? To this day I remember a professor of a graduate course in urban planning who consistently reminded us budding technocrats that the physical and social engineering inherent in urban planning was not simply a rigorous technical specialty, but rather a complex “political process.”

This professor spent much of his time in the real world consulting his specialty to clients comprised mainly of government bureaucrats, concerned and involved citizens, special interest and business groups as well as elected politicians. He knew intimately the terrain of his consulting environment. He understood what motivated the various individuals and groups and was convinced that nothing much could be accomplished outside the cumbersome political decision-making process. The presentation of an exquisite technical proposal in itself was inadequate. It needed to be sold! My professor also knew that the results frequently were expedient, short term fixes imbued with the usual failings resulting from compromise. Nonetheless, nothing of consequence would be accomplished outside this messy political process.

What this means in terms of the price of gold is that politicians and legislators generally, along with their senior bureaucrats, as massaged by consultants, lobbyists and assorted interest groups, will cause policy decisions and legislation which can be characterized as expedient short term fixes. These decisions are almost always deficient in terms of what is really needed and frequently result in greater harm and unintended consequences. Political imperatives invariably prevail.

The political version of long term planning, the date of the next election, will trump all other considerations. Implications of short term pandering almost always runs counter to sound public policy. Moreover, as desperation mounts more unfunded spending, deficits and debt, money creation and creative new ways to bribe the voter become the norm. The escalating price of gold is the inevitable consequence.

The political process outlined above explains much toward why we are facing mounting economic and financial problems. Imperatives of the electoral process cause politically expedient decision making to go into overdrive resulting in a feverish succession of costly and doomed initiatives. Real money is the safe haven destination to its consequences. Precious metals prices can be expected to gain serious momentum and reach unheard of price levels in this environment.

Where is the Ultimate Gold Price Destination?

Clearly no one knows. However, a few issues can be accepted as given in this new and rapidly changing economic reality. The magnitude of the financial crisis caused by government deficits and debt, coupled with the complexity and scale of financial products, is unprecedented. It is also necessary to factor in the global scope as well. In truth there has never been a time, not during the Great Depression or WW II, which we can look to for guidance. We are facing a confluence of economic problems which guarantee that real money, precious metals prices, will skyrocket to unimagined levels.

Carefully consider the following question. Who are the owners of most of the world’s gold? Yes, they are governments starting with the United States, Germany, France, International Monetary Fund, and Italy along with countries like China and India including a succession of third tier nations currently buying as if there is little time remaining to stock up. These institutions effectively place a floor under gold prices. Their readiness to buy removes much of the risk. Price consolidation and corrections following seemingly relentless upward movement will inevitably occur, but they will be shallow and brief.

So who wins with huge price increases?  Select national governments primarily, but also certain hedge funds, institutional investors and some individuals who own precious metals. High gold prices provide more than just the obvious benefit of price appreciation to governments which own it, but that will be the subject of a future missive.

Precious metals should rank at the top of your investment “to buy” list. Prices cannot be predicted with precision because the factors affecting price are different in many ways than at any time in our past. What can be said, however, is that price will go dramatically higher as confidence in paper money and digits on a computer screen continue to deteriorate.

Think Big!

Arnold Bock is a Contributing Editor to www.InsidersInsights.com and Lorimer Wilson is Editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com.

 


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