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Gold Commentary

Given the title of this commentary; it would be understandable if readers mistakenly assumed that this would be more yammering about the nauseating, U.S. Debt-Ceiling Farce. But that is a piece of staged theater, and this is an article about precious metals – and the two subjects have no connection.

Of course one would never realize that fact in reading the pseudo-analysis of the mainstream media. In that fantasy realm; precious metals prices jump higher or lower every time a Republican or Democrat passes wind. This is despite the fact that none of these Drones can articulate how this Farce has any relevance to the gold or silver markets.

Sure, a U.S. debt-default would be “bullish” for precious metals, but so would a million-and-one other things. “All roads lead to higher precious metals prices,” not because gold and silver occupy some divine niche in the Universe; but because of the mindless, dead-end economic policies of our Clown Politicians.

Nearly all of the economic problems across the West are caused by too much debt and too much money-printing; yet all the Clowns know how to do to “fix” our economies is to pile-on even more debt, and print-up even more paper. Indeed, what these Clowns have previously called “bail-outs” is where one of these Deadbeat Debtors is given a mountain of new debt, all of which originates out of newly-created banker-paper.

As has been explained many times in the past; with the money-printing and debt now both well past any point-of-no-return, only two outcomes are possible for our economies (and societies) – and one or both of these outcomes must occur in the near future. A familiar chart articulates this better than any words can do.

This is the money-printing which B.S. Bernanke spent six months telling the world he was going to begin to taper. A vertical line. Pedal to the metal. Yet after six (more) months of “crying Wolf”; Bernanke couldn’t bring himself to ease off the accelerator even the tiniest degree, warning the world the U.S. economy would collapse if he did so.

The U.S. economy (and with it, the other Western dominoes) has become nothing but a surreal, real-life version of the movie “Speed”. It’s not going anywhere, but it has to go there as fast as it can – or it will blow up. There are two important differences between “Speed” and the U.S. economy, however.

 

U.S. Debt-Default: Then What?

US Commentary

In my commentary earlier this week; readers were presented with the latest/newest “clue” from the Corporate Media as to where the staged shut-down of the U.S. government (via its Debt-Ceiling Farce) is leading the U.S. economy – and the global economy as a whole. Here the mainstream media was succinct and direct (for a change):

A U.S. Default Seen as Catastrophe Dwarfing Lehman’s Fall

The whole Debt-Ceiling Farce is a totally artificial, totally contrived event. As explained previously, the entire concept of a “debt ceiling” (for the world’s largest/greatest Deadbeat Debtor) is itself entirely absurd. Thus the shut-down of the U.S. government is also an artificial event, and the imminent/subsequent inducement of a U.S. debt-default (at this particular moment) would also be deliberate and artificial.

Then what?

Obviously, defaulting on its $trillions of debt would instantly make the United States potentially solvent again. But having defaulted on its old debts; new debt will not be an option for the U.S. – meaning money actually being lent to it by foreign Creditors. Simply resuming its economic Ponzi scheme, where it issues vast quantity of debt and pretends to pay for it with (worthless) paper conjured out of thin air, would also no longer be tolerated by the global financial community.

So we know that a U.S. debt-default is not “the end” of fiscal problems for the U.S., but rather the real beginning. It’s massive, structural deficit would have to be addressed; where the U.S. spends more than any nation on Earth – but refuses to tax the individuals/entities now holding all the wealth in that economy. It has no tax base.

A U.S. debt-default would not eliminate the need of that government for massive, economic reform and a complete restructuring of the tax system. Rather, it would force the U.S. government to begin that process immediately, and substantially – not just the pathetic baby-steps which these politicians have the audacity to call “deficit reduction”.

But this merely provides a taste of what is in store for the U.S. after any debt-default declaration. For many people, notably hundreds of millions of residents of other, Western deadbeat economies; what will be of most significance here is the inevitable “domino effect.”

If (when?) the hopelessly insolvent United States declares debt-default – i.e. its own bankruptcy – this will permanently/irrevocably remove the blinders from participants in our fraudulent, global debt markets. It would now be crystal-clear that “AAA” credit-ratings = “junk”.

In turn, Creditors suddenly/finally aware that they are taking a “junk” level of risk with all the money they are lending will demand “junk” interest rates – as compensation for that massive level of risk…at which point the Ponzi-scheme economies of most other Western nations would also be painfully revealed.

As with the U.S.; the only thing stopping many of these Deadbeat Debtors from being forced into immediate declarations of debt-default (bankruptcy) themselves is through paying absurdly/artificially low rates of interest on that debt. Jack-up those interest rates to real “market rates”, and watch the dominoes fall.

 

U.S. Shut-Down An Excuse For Debt-Default?

US Commentary

A question being asked more frequently than ever by informed readers is “what happens next?” This is understandable, and not a reflection of these individuals becoming either more curious or simply more obtuse.

Rather, our fraud-saturated, non-transparent economies (and markets) have grown still more opaque. This is primarily accomplished by the ever-increasing falsification of economic data; first in the U.S., and now across the Western industrialized world. Proof of this lying-with-numbers comes empirically, via our permanent, near-zero interest rates across the West.

No government in History (other than Japan) has ever taken interest rates this low for such an extended period, for one gigantic, obvious reason. A near-zero interest rate – i.e. free money – is quite obviously the most-extreme (and most-reckless) form of economic stimulus which could ever be devised…except for “QE” itself.

As has been explained previously; near-zero interest rates/free money are the economic equivalent of a defibrillator. What has happened in the U.S., and across the West after five years of continuously defibrillating these economies? Nothing.

What happened after Japan defibrillated its economy for 5 years? Nothing. So it defibrillated it for another five years, and another, and another. After a quarter-century what do we see in Japan? After twenty-five years of monetarily defibrillating its own corpse-economy; the corpse is still a corpse. What a surprise!

Five years ago; the U.S. (the ring-leader of current, Western insanity) assured the world that “it could never become another Japan”. It was correct. The U.S. (and the other Western Deadbeat Debtors) are far worse than Japan.

Japan merely defibrillated its economy with 0% interest rates, alone. The U.S. has brought the world something far, far worse: “QE” (and 0% interest rates). This is money”(?) conjured out of thin air, and (unlike all the other $trillions of near-worthless U.S. paper) all of this “QE” paper is not even “backed” by debt. It is merely Monopoly Money, in every sense of the words.

Readers need to understand that a (permanent) 0% interest rate has the effect of force-feeding huge sums of free money into an economy – hence the obvious metaphor of a defibrillator. Meanwhile, “QE” is the process of conjuring vast quantities of utterly worthless currency.

Combine the two insanities, and the product is obvious. The U.S. (and the other, Western suicide-jockeys) have been force-feeding vast quantities of totally/absolutely worthless paper into their own economies – and the global economy. It is a “Ponzi scheme” in the truest sense of that expression.

Why (ultimately) have all of these $trillions in new paper failed to “stimulate” these Western Deadbeat economies? Because you can’t stimulate economies with worthless paper.

   

Republicans: The Anti-Business Party

US Commentary

As a media entity for whom “subtlety” is generally a dirty word; Bloomberg can be remarkably indirect when tasked with delivering an unpalatable message about its Friends. After merely a few weeks of (manipulated) price-weakness in the precious metals sector; these Straight Shooters had no qualms about unequivocally declaring a “bear market” in precious metals – a message which is bluntly repeated every time it mentions the sector.

Yet whenever it attempts to describe one of the endless acts of Bankster fraud, all we get are long, meandering dialogues, where (somehow) the words “fraud” or “crime” are never, ever used. It displays a similar, mealy-mouthed reluctance to deliver the bad news about one of its “BFF’s” : the U.S. Republican Party.

The Republican Party is now the Anti-Business Party.

It’s a very simple message, yet watch how Bloomberg struggles in its own attempts to deliver that eight-word communication. We start with the headline of their new, back-stabbing missive:

Republicans Are No Longer The Party Of Business

It is a title which informs readers what the Republican Party is not, when with precisely the same number of words it could have stated what the Republican Party “is”. No nation on Earth is more binary in its thinking than the USA. “If you’re not fer us, you’re agin us.”

If one is not “left wing”, they must be “right wing” (and vice versa). It’s not simply that the Political Center does not exist in the United States, it is that it’s a concept which is beyond the comprehension of virtually the entire population. So if a particular U.S. political party is no longer “for” business, then (inevitably) it must be “against” business. Yet the closest Bloomberg gets to delivering its binary verdict is this:

They’re the party of antigovernment.”

A rather hilarious, Orwellian spin, in that the Republican Party is “government”; one half of the Two-Party Dictatorship, to be precise. Of course what Bloomberg what have liked to say is that the Republican Party is “the Party of small government”, but that’s a message which even the propagandists in the Corporate Media can no longer deliver with a straight face.

The Republican Party is the party of Big Military. The Republican Party is the party of Big Subsidies (to really Big Business) – and the big “kick-backs” that go with them. The Republican Party is the party of Big Security-Machine (i.e. “Big Brother”).

Not only does this Big Government require lots and lots of Drones, it requires gigantic amounts of tax dollars. The New Republicans love to spend money, they just hate collecting any (tax dollars) to pay for all their Big Government plans.

But don’t accept my word (or even Bloomberg’s) that the Republican Party is the Anti-Business Party. For decades, when discussing the Republican Party and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce; the phrase “two peas in a pod” would have been understatement. And the Chamber of Commerce is “business”. Yet witness the obvious displeasure (if not disgust) as Bloomberg quotes the vice-president of this mouthpiece of the business community.

A government shutdown is economically disruptive and creates more uncertainty for the U.S. economy,” says R. Bruce Josten, the Chamber’s executive vice-president of government affairs. “We’re disappointed this has happened, and we urge Congress [i.e. Republicans] and the administration to work together immediately to find a path forward on the [continuing resolution] and debt limit to remove any threat to the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.”

The business community can grin-and-bear-it with mediocre government. It can survive bad government. But it cannot survive (for long) with a totally dysfunctional government, overrun by Berserkers whose only goal is to obstruct, undermine, and sabotage. Read between the lines, and the message from the Chamber of Commerce is crystal-clear: “the Madness must end.”

 

U.S. Extend-and-Pretend: the Zombie lives!

US Commentary

Most readers are familiar with the market vernacular “extend and pretend.” It’s origins are the U.S.  commercial debt market. This is yet another U.S. Ponzi-scheme and debt-bubble being kept alive solely through pretending that most/all of the massive amounts of bad-debt in this market is still viable.

It’s a game (and a massive fraud/sham) because if these corporate Deadbeat Debtors ever had their debts closely/rationally scrutinized; their debts would not simply be rolled-over (i.e. “extended”) at artificially low rates of interest. Instead, the debt would be assessed much higher rates of interest – to reflect the serious risk of non-repayment (i.e. default).

The moment these Deadbeats were faced with legitimate interest rates on their debts; they would default like the row of Ponzi-scheme dominoes that they represent. These zombie corporations are hooked-up to the equivalent of a bond-market “respirator”: kept alive only through the totally artificial means of “extend and pretend.”

But in fact, it’s a game which has been (greatly) expanded to encompass the entire U.S. economy in a bubble of denial, and it is a multi-faceted game, at that. One facet of the national game of extend-and-pretend is very similar to the massive sham/fraud in the U.S. commercial debt market – except an order of magnitude more fraudulent.

The U.S. Treasuries market is another U.S. extend-and-pretend Ponzi-scheme, in two respects – three, if we include the fact that the U.S. economy is hopelessly insolvent, making these Treasuries near-worthless.

First there is the fact that the Federal Reserve is now effectively the only buyer of U.S. debt, and at one point earlier this year was officially buying-up Treasuries faster than the U.S. government was issuing new debt. But that only equates to “monetizing debt” (i.e. a cheque-kiting economy).

What makes this a Ponzi-scheme is that all these Treasuries are being purchased with paper simply/literally conjured out of thin air – and not even borrowed into existence, like all the previous $trillions of money-printing.

Why is this so significant? When the U.S. dollar went off the “gold standard” (i.e. it was no longer backed by anything), it ceased to be a “unit of value.” Instead, with every new USD being borrowed into existence; the U.S. dollar became a “unit of obligation” (i.e. an IOU). Clearly a unit of obligation is inferior to a unit a value, but at least (as an IOU) it can claim some intrinsic value.

But that is not the case with all these “QE” dollars being conjured into existence in the U.S. and Europe. What gives this paper value? Nothing at all. These scraps of paper have gone from being an “I-owe-you” to an “I-owe-nothing”. They are neither units of value or obligation – simply “units”. No different than Monopoly Money.

One “unit” comes off a printing press owned by Hasbro. One “unit” comes off of a printing press owned by the Federal Reserve. Both are private corporations. Neither forms of paper have any, possible intrinsic value. The (near-worthless) U.S. Treasuries market is now being totally propped-up with totally worthless paper.

But that’s only one aspect of the Treasuries market Ponzi-scheme. The other half of this fraud are the artificial interest rates, where the Fed is buying all this worthless paper at the highest prices in history. Why make the Ponzi-scheme so obvious?

   

CFTC Silver Probe: See-no-Evil, Hear-no-Evil, Speak-no-Evil

Silver Commentary

When the world’s largest commodity futures “regulator” releases the results of a five-year probe; one expects to see a detailed, thorough, and well-reasoned analysis. What we see instead is a pathetic exercise in pseudo-logic – which could have been written in its entirety in a single afternoon. “Shallow” cannot begin to describe the lack of depth in this probe.

Indeed, one would not even attempt such a vacuous non-response to the question/issue of silver manipulation unless they were absolutely certain that their findings would not be questioned in the slightest – as poking holes in this drivel is proverbial “child’s play.” Thus in releasing such a farcical probe, this directly implies a totally corrupt (Corporate) media – one which only parrots, never questions.

Fortunately the CFTC has been kind of enough to place all of its pseudo-reasoning in bullet-point form, saving readers precious minutes of their lives which they would have otherwise wasted in going through its drivel line-by-line in order to expose this Big Lie. This makes the task of analysis simple: list these bogus arguments, expose the gigantic, unstated assumption (and omitted facts) upon which these “reasons” are based – and then translate them back into the Real World.

1) Silver cash and futures prices have risen dramatically between 2005 and 2007, with silver outperforming the gold, platinum and palladium markets, suggesting that silver futures prices are not depressed relative to other metals prices.

2) NYMEX silver futures prices tend to track closely the price of physical silver.

3) Concentration levels for the top four short futures traders in the silver market are comparable to those observed in the gold and copper futures markets, and generally are lower than the levels seen in the platinum and palladium futures markets.

4) The composition of the traders comprising the top four short futures traders, in terms of net positions, change over time. These traders represent a diverse group, and their futures positions are driven by an even more diverse group of customers.

5) There is no observable relationship between short-futures-trader concentration levels and silver prices.

6) There is a slightly positive relationship between the total net position of the large short futures traders and silver prices; this suggests that larger short futures positions are associated with higher, not lower prices.

All of this report is totally and completely predicated upon one, single assumption, with the exception of arguments (2), (3) and (4), which (because of their specific nature) are also based upon separate, false assumptions and missing facts.

The huge assumption upon which the entire CFTC report rests is that the silver market was “normal” at the time it commenced its sham-analysis, a market with supply and demand in balance, and prices in equilibrium. We know that this is an assumption in all of the CFTC’s reasoning, because never once does it attempt to address how its analysis would differ if one did not assume a market in perfect balance.

In fact, at the time the CFTC commenced its examination of the silver market; the silver market represented the most-tortured, perverted commodity market in the history of human commerce: prices near multi-century lows, inventories totally collapsed, near-complete genocide in the silver mining industry.

These fundamentals are so extreme that no “regulator” could possibly fail to be aware of them. Indeed, the CFTC deliberately, cynically chose the absolute lowest point of this multi-century silver trough as the “norm” upon which it bases its entire pseudo-analysis.

 

One, Big Steal?

Gold Commentary

Life (these days) as a precious metals commentator is a study in exasperation. Fundamentals mean nothing. What passes for “mainstream analysis” ranges from the merely inane to the totally insane. Financial crime in the sector – officially sanctioned – is rampant.

A particular point of frustration is attempting to dissect the current scenario. Extreme (illegal) price-suppression of precious metals has led to out-of-control demand for bullion in Asia, the near-total destruction of the supply-chain (mining), and (inevitably accompanying that) the decimation of physical inventories of bullion.

As has been explained in several, previous commentaries; the only mechanism for healing these raped markets and re-building the supply chain is higher prices, much higher prices. And it is now very clear that the Banksters will never allow another significant rally in this sector; at least not while they still maintain control of precious metals prices via their paper-fraud markets.

While the divergent Voices within this sector are rarely unanimous about anything; there is consensus here: the current situation “cannot last” for any length of time. However, while this Road to Bullion Default (or Decoupling) appears counter-productive – if not self-destructive – from most perspectives; there is one anomaly which stands in contrast to this.

North American bullion demand (and bullion ownership) has been pushed down into a trough, arguably the lowest trough since right before/during the Crash of ’08. And here, perhaps, we see “method in the madness” of the One Bank.

What if the Banksters simply no longer care what happens in bullion markets next year? All they are concerned about is one variable: minimizing the amount of North American capital  (i.e. wealth) stored safely in physical bullion today, in order to maximize the amount of North American wealth being stored in paper today.

Framing the parameters in that manner, a clear strategy emerges: preparations for One (last) Big Steal. The fleecing-to-end-all-fleecings for the flocks of oblivious Western Sheep.

Having herded all this capital into easy-to-steal paper form; we now see the Shepherds pulling out their Shears. As noted in previous commentaries; preparations for another (staged) “crash” couldn’t be more obvious – in both Canada and the United States. Except this time we have “bail ins”: the potential for infinite/unlimited stealing of paper assets.

The fact that B.S. Bernanke, the Boy Who Cried Exit Strategy failed to “pull the trigger” (yet again) on reducing U.S. money-printing – and detonating the crippled U.S. economy – suggests that the Banksters lack the courage to “crash” the U.S. economy (and other Western economies) through blatant, overt action. Rather, the crash and subsequent Shearing will be caused by, and blamed on some exogenous (staged) event.

The one thing we can be certain of is that some sort of “crash event” is inevitable, and coming in the near future. Obviously the One Bank did not go to all the trouble of staging its Cyprus Theft, getting all its Minions in media and government to declare it “a precedent”, inventing “bail-in” frameworks for most (all?) Western economies, and then herding as much of that capital as possible into paper form not to steal it.

With complete certainty that a Big Steal is on the way for most (all?) Western economies, and with it impossible to predict (i.e. guess) what sort of pretext will be used to “justify” all of the stealing-to-come; all this leaves us is trying to narrow down when this crime will take place, and what will be the consequences in the aftermath.

   

Bernanke: U.S. Economy Is A Ponzi-Scheme

US Commentary

Having allowed a couple of days for the tidal wave of mainstream, post-“tapering” nonsense to subside; it’s now time to look at the facts, as once again The Boy Who Cried Exit Strategy got in front of microphones to say “just kidding.”

At the time that B.S. Bernanke originally began his musings now known as “tapering”; it had already been observed that the U.S. pseudo-recovery was “longer than average duration” – i.e. it was already past its expiry-date. After stalling for 4 ½ years, and failing to deliver on all his previous promises of an “exit strategy” – while the U.S. economy was relatively “strong”(?) and supposedly growing – no rational government (or central bank) would ever time the withdrawal of stimulus to coincide with the end of a growth-cycle.

Tapering” was always a hoax.

Simply talking about tapering caused interest rates (i.e. borrowing costs) on U.S. ten-year Treasuries to nearly double; and naturally/inevitably those higher borrowing costs filtered through the entire U.S. economy. Thus in simply talking about tapering for seven months; the Banksters created so much economic “drag” on the U.S. economy that if Bernanke had actually, finally delivered on (yet another) “exit strategy” promise, it could have only been interpreted as deliberate economic suicide.

Tapering” was always a hoax.

There is a delicious irony here. The “latest rounds of QE” – the current, $1 trillion per year of totally gratuitous U.S. money-printing – are not actually “new” money-printing at all. These infinite stacks of Bernanke-bills were being conjured into existence just as quickly before these “announcements”, it simply wasn’t being reported/declared.

It was counterfeit money, in every sense of the word. This was explained in a previous commentary. The original problem? No buyers (anywhere) for U.S. Treasuries – at “all-time record prices”. The solution? Counterfeit money.

Secretly print-up $trillions in counterfeit Bernanke-bills, and use that counterfeit money to “buy” U.S. Treasuries in auctions which (conveniently) had just been made totally opaque. Readers have seen or heard my description of the new-and-improved “Treasuries auction” previously.

A stack of Treasuries is placed on a table. The lights go out. (Sounds of paper-shuffling are heard.) The lights come back on. The stack of Treasuries is gone. “Auction” complete.

This cheap ‘magic trick’ was the Perfect Crime, and then Reality ruined everything. With the U.S. pseudo-recovery already beginning to obviously sag (in its old age); the call went out to the Fed for “more stimulus” – given the fact that the U.S. Treasury is totally empty (save for the IOU’s).

So B.S. Bernanke and Co. simply began reporting the “new money” they had already been counterfeiting previously, and presto! One $trillion per year in new, so-called “stimulus.” Now (suddenly) there was an actual “reason” for U.S. Treasuries to be improbably perched at all-time record prices – despite the fact the U.S. economy is obviously bankrupt: the Federal Reserve was openly monetizing all debt.

The Truth shall set you free”? Not if you’re a central banker at the Federal Reserve. Then it’s a nasty ball-and-chain which (you discover to your horror) you can never remove.

 

When The Financial Stealing Ends

Gold Commentary

Tomorrow, outgoing Federal Reserve Chairman B.S. Bernanke will do one of two things (while his “friends and supporters” continue to sharpen their knives). He will either (formally/finally) announce the absurdly-hyped “tapering” he has promised; or he will back-down on yet another Exit Strategy – as he has done again and again for the past 4 ½ years.

My own prediction, expressed in my last commentary is that this time the Boy Who Cried Exit Strategy will actually follow through on a promise – because he has been ordered to detonate the severely-crippled U.S. economy. The “signposts” couldn’t be more obvious: record equity prices; maximum leverage in markets (can you say “bubble”?). The perfect time to Fleece the Sheep.

As was pointed out in that commentary, even the propaganda machine itself has now explicitly stated that this is the worst possible time to begin “tapering” – and they (deliberately) left out the best argument to make that point. The U.S. pseudo-recovery (in historical terms) is already well past its expiry-date.

This detonation is being timed when the government knows that a cyclical downturn must commence in the U.S. economy, compounding all the structural weaknesses which have never been addressed: mass unemployment, Great Depression-wages, saturation insolvency at all levels of government, etc., etc., etc.

Readers have also been warned about the utterly predictable chapter to follow this staged crash: “bail-ins” come to North America. South of the border; the Wall Street Vampires have created assorted asset-bubbles – to entice the “suckers” whom P.T. Barnum assured us are born every day, and create plenty of their own “bad debts”, for which they will (once again) demand indemnification.

North of the border, as has also been previously explained; Stephen Harper has manufactured a fat, juicy housing-bubble – a direct “homage” to the previous U.S. housing-bubble, in that Harper has deliberately duplicated that blueprint of destruction in nearly every respect. Canada’s Conservative government has also been (by far) the most-blatant in declaring its “bail-in” intentions; crafting these rules-for-stealing into its current Budget. A “sense of urgency” perhaps?

As always, the Corporate Media propaganda machine never, ever asks (let alone answers) the question “what comes next?” As we are being marched toward a new, staged “crash”; it behooves us to look back at the last staged-crash – the Crash of ’08 – which the Banksters detonated precisely five years ago.

The promise when the stealing began (five years ago), when suddenly “too big to fail” mega-banks (subsidiaries of the One Bank) began pillaging our public Treasuries via “bail-outs” was simple: this will “fix our economies.” Five years later; we see every aspect of that first phase of stealing was fraudulent.

The mega-banks were never “too big to fail”. Such a term is logically/mathematically/economically perverse and absurd. What these Big Banks demonstrated in the most blatant terms possible (via blackmailing our governments for countless $trillions in extortion demands) is that they had become too big to exist.

We now see that the second half of this paradigm-of-theft was also, utterly fraudulent. The stealing done post-2008 was never/could never be honestly called “bail-outs.” By definition; bail-outs extricate the Debtors from their financial difficulties. Had this first phase of stealing actually been a bail-out; we would never have begun discussions for the second phase of stealing (“bail-ins”), because (obviously) it would never have been necessary.

The reality is that all of the “bail-outs” which took place in Phase One of this stealing were merely a down-payment in the eyes of the One Bank. The only reason that bail-outs are now “out” is because all of our public Treasuries have been emptied.

   

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