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Central Bank Gold-Buying Increases by 500%

Articles & Blogs - Gold Commentary

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The World Gold Council recently released its own report for the gold market for 2011. It noted that while global demand for gold had hit a new all-time high in (nominal) dollar terms, it was merely reaching its highest level in 15 years in terms of tonnages. Hardly the signs of an “over-heated” market, as is regularly claimed by the flock of mainstream Chicken Littles clucking about a bubble” in the gold market.

Indeed, investment demand rose by a mere 5% year-over-year. Arguably, even that number overstates the performance of the gold market in 2011, since (in the real world) much of what is mistakenly classified as “jewelry demand” should be classified as investment demand.

The reason for this is that in much of the developing world gold jewelry is considered a form of “savings” (or investment) rather than mere adornment. In 2011, jewelry demand actually declined, meaning that on a net basis true investment demand was likely essentially flat on the year.

Of interest, however, there was one group of gold-buyers whose appetite was nothing short of voracious in 2011: the world’s central banks. The entities who create the paper confetti in our wallets which they call “money” were busily dumping that paper to buy gold in 2011 – roughly 500% more than what they purchased in 2010 (from 77 tons to 440 tons). Even 2010 had been considered a very notable year in this respect, as it marked the first year in which the central banks had become net-buyers of gold in decades.

It was only a few years prior to that when many of these same, central bankers were publicly proclaiming that gold was nothing but a “barbarous relic”. Western central banks flooded the market with thousands of tons of gold during those years (but don’t call it “manipulation”). And now they are buying the gold back. What are we to make of this “sellers’ remorse”?

Perhaps an analogy is in order. Suppose you noticed that all of the workers at the local Ford auto plant were all selling their Fords and buying Toyotas. What kind of car would you be most likely to buy under those circumstances?

The world’s central banks are dumping their own paper – in ever-increasing quantities – to buy a “barbarous relic”. On a net basis, they are now buying back the gold they sold, except at (nominal) prices 500% to 600% higher than the prices at which they dumped those 1000’s of tons of gold.

If we read an anecdotal account of a group of ordinary individuals who (over a period of decades) sold large quantities of gold at prices of $300/oz or less, and then suddenly reversed that behavior and began buying back their gold at prices of $1500/oz and higher, what would we conclude? Would we assume that these people were among the worst traders in the history of markets? Would we simply assume they were crazy?

So what are we now to conclude about the central bankers, or more specifically the Western central banks who were the perpetrators of most of that massive gold-dumping – since they have assured us that all of the gold they flooded onto the market was not intended to suppress the price of gold? Are we to conclude that they are among the worst traders in the history of markets (while simultaneously proclaiming their superiority in asserting the right to guide our economies)? Should we assume that they are all simply crazy? Or, perhaps, they are all “crazy like a fox”?

As with our hypothetical example of the workers at the auto plant; the normal, rational assumption we would make is that if the creators of a particular product shun the product that they produce in favor of a competing product that we can likely make one or more inferences:

1) The product they produce is inherently defective.

2) The product they produce is significantly overvalued.

3) The product which they swap their own good to obtain is inherently superior.

4) The product which they swap their own good to obtain is significantly undervalued (relative to their own product).

Do we have any reason to believe that the bankers’ paper currency is inherently defective? Yes. When these same bankers persuaded our governments to abandon the gold standard in 1971, our paper currencies ceased to be “money”. They were no longer backed by any tangible asset, so they instantly ceased to be units of value.

From that moment on they have been nothing but units of debt. Every dollar/euro/yen created (by the trillions) in recent years has been produced as a unit of obligation to these same, central bankers (didn’t that work our conveniently?). And now all of these debt-based currencies are being produced by governments in the process of defaulting on those debts. Even if one was to (charitably) assume that our paper currencies once had some pseudo-value, these paper “IOU’s” of defaulting-debtors will soon be worthless, if they are not worthless already.

Do we have any reason to believe that these paper currencies are significantly overvalued? Yes. As I explained in a previous commentary, any good which is produced at zero cost, and in near-infinite quantities (like U.S. dollars) must be worthless – as a matter of definition.  With the other paper currencies being produced at slightly greater than zero cost (except for yen), they can currently at least pretend to possess some, slight value.

Do we have any reason to believe that gold is inherently superior to these (near-worthless) paper currencies? Yes. Contrary to the mythology of Western central bankers, far from being a “barbarous relic”, gold is an eternal storehouse of value – or at least it has been for thousands of years, up to and including today. Conversely in less than 100 years the mighty U.S. dollar, King of the Paper Currencies, has lost 98% of its value, with more than 75% of that plunge toward worthlessness occurring in the 40 years since the last remnants of a gold standard were abolished.

There is also a very long list of supply/demand arguments which clearly favor gold over (near-worthless) banker paper, but that would simply be overkill.

Do we have any reason to believe that gold is significantly undervalued versus the bankers’ paper currencies? Yes. Even if we embrace naivety and conclude that the thousands of tons of gold dumped onto the market by Western central banks was not intended to suppress the price of gold, as any first-year economics student could tell you it would inevitably have that effect.

With the gold-dumping having not only ceased, but reversed, again the basic dictates of supply and demand tell us that the price of gold has only begun its advance. This is especially true once we factor in how much further the bankers have diluted their paper currencies during this bull-market for gold. Indeed, once we also calculate the exponential increase in debts and the equally exponential rate of currency-dilution, in absolute terms gold is clearly more undervalued today than when the bull-market began more than a decade earlier.

When we combine the WGC data with the basic fundamentals of the gold market, a clear picture emerges. While Asian markets are strong, gold remains almost a complete mystery to Western investors. Proof of this comes in any historical comparison. Traditionally precious metals assets have constituted between 5% and 10% of financial holdings – and more than that in times of crisis.

Yet today, with Western economies currently sinking into a combination of economic depression and debt-default, we see Western investors with (on average) only 1% of their portfolios comprising bullion and other precious metals assets (i.e. mining shares). To suggest that gold-ownership (and silver-buying) in the West is likely to increase by a factor of ten (or more) in the near future would seem to be a conservative estimate.

Meanwhile, central banks are dumping their own paper for gold at a pace which is unprecedented since Nixon assassinated the gold standard in 1971. It is harder to imagine a clearer warning.

For the sake of all regular readers who (proudly) call themselves “silver bulls”, I’ll take a moment to observe that not only do we have many reasons to believe that silver is even more undervalued today than gold, but as the peoples’ money” it is also much more affordable. Protect yourselves from the collapse of the paper currencies which even the creators of this paper are trying to dump themselves. Swap your banker-paper for gold and/or silver today – before this confetti (officially) acquires its actual value.

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Comments (6)Add Comment
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, February 20, 2012
I've read that, if Greece formally defaults...it will take down five American Banks and three European Banks... Though the triggering of Credit Default Swaps (Insurance).


Posthumous, this is perhaps the MOST extraordinary part of this Greek Tragedy: those credit default swaps should have ALREADY been triggered. Even more outrageous, the pseudo-regulator of this market has already "ruled" that even a 70% haircut for bond-holders WON'T be considered a "default".

LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This was ALWAYS fraudulent/pretend insurance...except now they aren't even PRETENDING any more. smilies/shocked.gif
Posthumous
...
written by Posthumous, February 20, 2012
On a different note; I've read that, if Greece formally defaults...it will take down five American Banks and three European Banks... Though the triggering of Credit Default Swaps (Insurance).
Even though it is mathematically impossible to avoid default...You can imagine the Banksters Threatening words into the ears of Euro politicians

...It's all starting to make sense!
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, February 19, 2012
It would seem to me that one way Central Banks might be stupid like a fox is that they can print dollars or what ever currency they are in charge of; that are worth virtually nothing and then buy gold with those useless currencies. I wish I could do that! As you say, they have managed to talk private investors out of buying very much this past year while they go at it. As long as they can keep people (us) thinking that dollars are where its at, they might just be able to keep doing this; billions of printing press dollars out of nothing and then competing with me, you and your readers, buying physical gold and silver until the time comes that the masses figure out that their paper money is trash. By then we won’t be able to get any at any price because the CBs can go out that way, printing maybe trillions by then and buying up the last gold and silver that anyone is stupid enough to trade it for their lousy paper.


Charuss, this is an understandable fear, however one that is somewhat ILLUSORY when we actually look more closely. It's the old line about "how many elephants can you fit through the eye of a needle" - simultaneously?

smilies/cheesy.gif

The ability of these fraudulent bankers to conjure-up INFINITE quantities of their (worthless) paper is a two-edged sword. Get TOO greedy, and conjure too much all at once, and suddenly the Ponzi-scheme implodes, as the chumps suddenly see through the scam - and the paper immediately goes to zero.

That's how/why most of these paper currency Ponzi-schemes come to a (gruesome) end.

When it comes to TRYING to swap the worthless paper for bullion, it gets even WORSE for them. There are $100's of TRILLIONS of this crap-paper floating around in one form or another, and they couldn't convert 1% of it into bullion - without sending prices TENFOLD higher.

And then IF the Western banks started to try to buy-up gold and silver it would only shake CONFIDENCE even more/faster.

They are TRAPPED, "captains" destined to go down with their PAPER ships...

smilies/cheesy.gifsmilies/cheesy.gif
chasruss
...
written by chasruss, February 18, 2012
It would seem to me that one way Central Banks might be stupid like a fox is that they can print dollars or what ever currency they are in charge of; that are worth virtually nothing and then buy gold with those useless currencies. I wish I could do that! As you say, they have managed to talk private investors out of buying very much this past year while they go at it. As long as they can keep people (us) thinking that dollars are where its at, they might just be able to keep doing this; billions of printing press dollars out of nothing and then competing with me, you and your readers, buying physical gold and silver until the time comes that the masses figure out that their paper money is trash. By then we won’t be able to get any at any price because the CBs can go out that way, printing maybe trillions by then and buying up the last gold and silver that anyone is stupid enough to trade it for their lousy paper.
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, February 18, 2012
Apberusdisvet, I think you're giving too much credit to these banksters in talking about a "game plan" - as that implies at least some degree of long-term thinking.

"Long term thinkers" don't sell most of their gold at all-time low prices - just evil clowns/bullies...because they could inflict more harm (and reap more illegitimate profits) over the short term.

Long term thinkers would have only pushed bullion prices a FRACTION as low, required only a relatively TINY amount of bullion to maintain - and would have meant that the Evil Clowns would have still had THOUSANDS of tons more bullion remaining in their vaults...
apberusdisvet
...
written by apberusdisvet, February 18, 2012
Jeff: I'm wondering if at least a rationale for the global CB game plan is a reaction to the Chinese who have made policy of a de facto mine nationalization (both PMs must stay in-country for their CB or industrial use) and an apparent agenda of preparing for an eventual remonetization of the PMs.

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