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Two Scenarios For Next Precious Metals Rally, Part I

Articles & Blogs - Gold Commentary

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Let me preface this piece by first stating that my reason for writing it was not to induce people to guess which scenario they found more probable, and then to place their bets beforehand. Rather, my purpose was exactly opposite: to prepare people for either scenario so that when they recognized one or the other unfolding they wouldn’t do something stupid in a moment of panic (or greed).

Sadly, in our markets to “do something stupid in a moment of panic” generally means doing precisely the opposite of what one should be doing. This also explains why the bankers like to start panics. First of all, as the cause of these panics the banksters are neither “panicked” nor (obviously) surprised themselves. So they continue to operate calmly (in this feeding-frenzy) while the sheep make themselves especially easy to sheer.

As a result of this never-ending game being played in our markets by the bankers, there is genuine utility in looking ahead (something the sheep almost never do) so that when events do unfold we will be prepared to act (calmly) – as opposed to reacting in panic (as the bankers desire).

With that preface out of the way, the next task is to explain/define these two, looming scenarios:

1) The crash-driven rally

2) The event-driven rally

Putting aside the fact that gold and silver are the most undervalued assets on our planet today; despite this ever-present truth the sheep generally need a “reason” to jump on the precious metals bandwagon. The irony here of course is that simply by jumping on the bandwagon the sheep supply the necessary momentum to drive prices higher – meaning that no “reason” is every truly necessary for gold and silver prices to go higher, in accordance with their ultra-bullish long-term fundamentals.

So the Catch-22 of the precious metals market is that we always need some catalyst to break gold and silver free of the intermittent bankster-created “log-jams” which have occurred in this market over the course of its 10+ year bull run, even though there is never any reason necessary to bid-up these grossly undervalued assets. In the last several years we have seen (arguably) three such catalysts. Two of those catalysts were events and one was a “crash”.

Taking these catalysts in chronological order, the first of the three was the Crash of ’08. Critics will argue that a “crash” is precisely an example of an event-driven catalyst. However, as I alluded to previously a market-crash is a particularly unique form of event, due to the extreme and unusual sentiments which accompany that event. The second reason to distinguish this catalyst from an “ordinary” event which serves to drive the market higher is that the circumstances prior to a crash will be markedly different from the circumstances of any other event-driven rally.

To begin with, one very likely clue that we will be on the precipice of another banker-created crash is that gold and silver (and likely all commodities) will begin to rally strongly without any identifiable cause for their strong surge in prices. To be more precise, the mainstream media (i.e. the propaganda machine) will not supply us with any “reason” for these soaring prices (other than pointing to their favorite scapegoats, the evil “speculators”).

They will not tell us that those price increases are nothing but playing catch-up for the previous $trillions in money-printing. Understand that what responsible precious metals commentators generally tell their audience is that we accumulate gold and silver merely to preserve our wealth – i.e. we’re not doing this (greedily) looking to turn a profit. However, the fundamental truth is that the decades of suppression, and the even more extreme manipulation of recent years mean that gold and silver are more undervalued today than they were at the beginning of this bull market over ten years ago.

Similarly, with the banksters’ paper grossly overvalued, this means that most commodities should be soaring to much higher prices, simply based upon the long-term ramifications of year after year of hyperinflationary money-printing. Here we come to the ultimate fear of the banksters, and the political stooges who serve them: they know that the end of their entire, paper Ponzi-scheme will be imminent when prices for hard assets (i.e. gold, silver, and commodities) begin to soar without any explicit short-term causes.

Unlike the brainwashed sheep, they know their history. They know that the ultimate cause of all hyperinflation is a general loss of confidence in (worthless) paper – just as the Dutch “lost confidence” in their precious tulips 400 years ago. Thus when prices begin soaring (i.e. the paper begins to crash) “for no reason”, the real reason will be that people are losing confidence in the paper and dumping it in favor of hard assets.

This precisely describes circumstances in the spring and summer of 2008, and explains why the bankers decided that nothing less extreme than a “crash” would suffice to put the breaks on the looming hyperinflation. What this means is that unlike an ordinary event-driven rally for the precious metals sector we will be tipped-off prior to the next crash being manufactured: we will see another instance of spiraling gold, silver, and commodities prices with charts showing a clear exponentially-rising pattern.

The banksters will not sit back quietly and allow their $100’s of trillions in Ponzi-paper to evaporate. Inflicting severe economic hardship on 100’s of millions means nothing to them. Indeed, the bankers have an even more extreme “solution” for dealing with a pending hyperinflation scenario: starting a war.

Hitler started World War II to cope with the aftermath of Germany’s hyperinflation from the Weimar Republic. However Hitler wasn’t a banker. He had no mountains of worthless paper to protect. His only motives were to create a smoke-screen for the economic ruin from the preceding hyperinflation and to cover-up his own economic mismanagement, which is an inherent aspect of all Fascism.

With the bankers (and the ultra-wealthy Oligarchs) being firmly in charge of our governments today, war would be a tool that they would use undoubtedly before any hyperinflation reduced their mountains of paper to what it really is: “Monopoly money”. Thus should we see another repeat of the explosion in gold, silver, and commodities prices which took place in the spring and summer of 2008, many would suggest that we should hope for a market crash.

Those with the inclinations to be “traders” (i.e. the greedy) will be sensing opportunity at this point. They will note that we will have a clear warning before the next crash is manufactured. They will note that such a crash will occur when we see a distinctive repeat of what occurred in gold, silver, and commodity markets in the spring/summer of 2008. They will look at the charts for gold and silver for 2008, and they will think to themselves “sell”.

This would be a colossal failure of analysis, and another triumph for naked greed. Simply because identical circumstances cause the bankers to use an identical “tool” (i.e. a market crash) does not mean that the consequences of their reckless intervention in markets will be identical.

Our economic circumstances in 2012 are enormously different than in 2008. Today our economies are all much weaker. Today our economies are all much less solvent. These two different dynamics both have significant implications in any crash scenario. Create a crash in a (relatively) strong economy and there is resistance; that is, that residual economic strength will push back against the downward economic pressure of a crash – slowing the descent and stretching-out the length of time of that downward slide before “bottom” is hit.

Conversely, create a crash in a weak economy and all you have is free-fall. We would (will?) see a crash which is much faster, and much more severe. This alternately means that anyone attempting to “time” this event by selling their gold/silver and then (assuming they can) buy it back it cheaper could miss badly in either direction.

The fact that a 2012 crash would tend to be a much faster event would mean that it could be over before all the would-be traders are expecting. They are sitting-and-waiting (for even cheaper prices) with their pile of depreciating paper, while prices have already began bouncing back. And as with the Crash of ’08, the rebound in gold and silver prices will be at least as rapid as their plunge, and likely even more rapid – leaving all those greedy “traders” still waiting at the station.

On the other hand, with a crash in 2012 undoubtedly a much more severe economic event, would-be traders could easily jump back into the market too soon – and do their buying with prices about to plunge much lower. We can assess those relative probabilities by looking at our other different dynamic for 2012: much less solvent governments.

The Crash of ’08 sparked the Money-Printing of ’09, which in turn has directly led to the Debt Crisis of 2010-to-present. The “64-trillion-dollar question” today is this: if a crash in 2008 caused a debt-crisis (when our economies were relatively strong), what would a crash do in 2012 – with our economies all weak, and all of Europe already in a debt-crisis. The answer to that question is really simple. Everybody is Greece.

The combination of an even worse crash, with much weaker economies, already in the midst of a debt-crisis means that either the money-printing would have to be much, much more extreme (i.e. guaranteed hyperinflation) or it would fail to halt our economic crash despite the extreme money-printing.

Understand that every new “dollar” of paper created is created with more debt. Understand that our interest rates are already as low as they can go, and still we see the debt-dominoes going bankrupt one-by-one. So doing much more money-printing means piling on exponentially more debt onto already insolvent economies…while revenues are simultaneously plummeting lower. This precisely describes what just took place in Greece.

So when “everybody is Greece” (including the world’s worst debt-sinner, the United States) what are the holders of $10’s of trillions in Western bonds going to do? Will they stoically and nobly “go down with the ship” like the Captains of Finance that they are? Or will they all scramble for the nearest “lifeboat” like proverbial rats deserting that sinking ship? I’ll let readers answer that one for themselves.

In the Crash of ’08, it was only the gold-bugs (and silver bulls) who were thinking to themselves “paper is going to zero”. The sheep were still all running towards that worthless paper. In any crash in 2012 (or 2013) it will be obvious to everyone that “everybody is Greece”, and all that paper is going to zero.

What this means is that in any future crash event, any sell-off in gold and silver will end very quickly and very abruptly, when all of the “rats” from the bond-market (belatedly) try to swap (worthless) paper for (valuable) metal. Naturally, all of the extreme money-printing taking place means that the underlying paper currencies are just as worthless as the bonds.

This should mean that all the sheep would be dumping their paper currencies for gold and silver too. However, that would imply rational thinking. Since the panic of any crash event means the opposite of rational thinking, the holders of our paper currencies will undoubtedly do even worse than the bond-holders.

As I continue to point out to readers, it would take much less than 10% of these paper-holders turning toward the 5,000 security of gold and silver to cause precious metals prices to soar to many multiples of present prices (especially in the tiny silver market). This comes at a time when people are only holding about 1/10th as much precious metals in their portfolio as is the historic norm.

The question for the precious metals bears and skeptics is this: if gold and silver prices can go on a 10+ year bull-run while ignorant Western investors have under-owned this asset class to the greatest degree in history, what happens when all of the “stupid money” of the West belatedly rebalances their holdings?

As an aside, this raises a secondary question: how can the drones in the mainstream media continue to talk about “bubbles” in gold and silver while these assets have never been so under-owned by Western investors?

When thinking investors begin to ask (and answer) these questions for themselves, their strategy for any crash scenario should be clear: don’t idiotically sell the gold and silver they are already holding, greedily hoping they can cash-in on some “obvious” short-term trade. Rather they should be buying more gold and silver in any crash, even in the face of rapidly falling prices. They would know that any plunge would be very short in duration, and will reverse higher very, very strongly, when all of the paper-holders finally begin to “see the light”.

Naturally, the hope of myself and all other gold and silver bulls is that we can see gold and silver begin their next, inevitable rally from some event which inspires much less fear and economic carnage than an economic crash. In Part II, I will flash-back to two such events, and note both their significant similarities and significant differences.

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Comments (7)Add Comment
Earl
...
written by Earl, April 13, 2012
Jeff,
Not "predictable"- your message is becoming more clear. Understanding, for me, has been a labor of love and frightening. I figure in the crash, items of value will rise quickly as you've stated. War !!!
I've wondered about my stock (for example), a company like Endeavour, who has cash, PM savings and good operations. Crashes from $10 to $2, only to rocket back to $50. The new hyper price. I think your message is not to try and time this event(selling at 10 hope to get at 2, because when it shoots to 50 it will be rapid and your cash will be going in the opposite direction). Please correct me if my analogy is wrong. Because I was thinking of clearing out of the casino, and wait for that market crash.
My coins, are off limits, adding when I know we can put that money away, and not in the bank (currency).

Appreciate your reply and keep the message coming. It makes understanding more clear. Hopefully, make "sheep" like myself, become confident (not cocky or greedy) quarterbacks with not only our finances, but our families future security.

Thank You
Earl
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, April 13, 2012
Jeff: faithful readers can anticipate your unflinching logic and analysis, it's that simple. Sorry if I jumped your shark.


Yikes! Does this mean I've become "predictable"???

I should have just kept quiet...

smilies/wink.gif
apberusdisvet
...
written by apberusdisvet, April 13, 2012
Jeff: faithful readers can anticipate your unflinching logic and analysis, it's that simple. Sorry if I jumped your shark.
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, April 13, 2012
my call would be event-driven as my attennae see the next crash as being carefully managed. Most likely it will be a Comex default or an general epiphany that supply is not sufficient and well short of the increasing demand; or the payoffs in lieu of delivery not being sufficient anymore. Jim Willie in a GoldSeek post opines that both GLD and SLV may suddenly drop 25% even as the physical price rises. Could very well happen.


Apberusdisvet, I'm SHOCKED that a reader would make that call without even waiting to read Part II first...

smilies/cheesy.gifsmilies/cheesy.gif
apberusdisvet
...
written by apberusdisvet, April 12, 2012
Jeff: my call would be event-driven as my attennae see the next crash as being carefully managed. Most likely it will be a Comex default or an general epiphany that supply is not sufficient and well short of the increasing demand; or the payoffs in lieu of delivery not being sufficient anymore. Jim Willie in a GoldSeek post opines that both GLD and SLV may suddenly drop 25% even as the physical price rises. Could very well happen.
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, April 12, 2012
I totally agree with your logic here. But isn't it the case from your other links (Kirby et al) regarding JP Morgan that JPM may be manipulating and shorting the silver market backed-up by the US Treasury? What are the implications for the US Treasury as the silver price rises?
Also, a lot of junior companies (UK AIM) seem to have values with no relation to the value of what they are mining. Are they suffering as an indirect consequence of manipulation of major miners? Incidentally, in the UK one of the best ways to hold gold is by purchasing Sovereigns. Because they are legal tender (with a silly nominal £1 (not shown on the coin) value) they escape VAT and capital gains and inheritance taxes. You just need to figure out where to keep them outside the banking system! In the past I'd noted that whenever there was a dip in the gold price the dealers seemed to temporarily run out of supplies, but that hasn't been the case of late. There is always a lag before the dealer price drops, but there seems to be plenty of coin bullion available for purchase at the momen


LOTS to reply to here Norbull!

Regarding what Ted Butler recently wrote about the Treasury Department being JP Morgan's "client" for whom their shorting was supposedly "hedging", my interpretation is that Butler was speaking totally metaphorically/facetiously.

Silver (and gold) are being held DOWN to prop UP the USD and U.S. Treasuries - thus the Treasury Department is JPM's "client" (lol).

Regarding the miners, think of this as simply a matter of "the tide going out and the tide coming in." Yes the actual VALUE of the juniors has become irrelevant to the market. As the TIDE has gone out, these smaller miners are being stranded "high and dry" in order of smallest market caps first - with the producers and larger market-cap miners being in the "deeper water" and thus not high-and-dry (yet).

First of all this is a situation which can change VERY quickly. Secondly, these junior miners have ALREADY had practice surviving being suddenly cut-off from capital (the Crash of '0smilies/cool.gif - except for the newest of these companies. So I'm telling people NOT to panic, and suggest ADDING to the most prospective of these companies (cautiously), at these incredible fire-sale prices.

Regarding your last comment about the UK Sovereigns, I've said the same about our gold and silver Maples, although for somewhat different reasons. I still see these legal tender coins as being the best form of bullion for investors.
Norbull
...
written by Norbull, April 12, 2012
Hi Jeff,
I totally agree with your logic here. But isn't it the case from your other links (Kirby et al) regarding JP Morgan that JPM may be manipulating and shorting the silver market backed-up by the US Treasury? What are the implications for the US Treasury as the silver price rises?
Also, a lot of junior companies (UK AIM) seem to have values with no relation to the value of what they are mining. Are they suffering as an indirect consequence of manipulation of major miners? Incidentally, in the UK one of the best ways to hold gold is by purchasing Sovereigns. Because they are legal tender (with a silly nominal £1 (not shown on the coin) value) they escape VAT and capital gains and inheritance taxes. You just need to figure out where to keep them outside the banking system! In the past I'd noted that whenever there was a dip in the gold price the dealers seemed to temporarily run out of supplies, but that hasn't been the case of late. There is always a lag before the dealer price drops, but there seems to be plenty of coin bullion available for purchase at the moment.

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