Friday, July 25, 2014
   
Text Size

Search our Site or Google

The Great Gold Scam

Articles & Blogs - Gold Commentary

User Rating: / 17
PoorBest 

A recent question from an inquisitive reader on gold “leasing” got my mind focused upon that topic again, as the question involved the actual mechanics of these transactions, and my answer dealt with issues of legal title to that gold. This, in turn, led me to consider to what purpose/use all of this leased gold has been dedicated.

Many commentators (including myself) have generally assumed that the gold being leased by undisclosed entities was being funneled to traders to be shorted onto the market – as part of the general manipulation operations of the bullion banks. We know that vast amounts of gold are being ‘leaked’ out of gold stockpiles in this manner, since lease rates are always near-zero, and frequently negative. This encourages those desiring legal possession (but not title) of gold to lease heavily.

But what if all this leased gold is not being used as simple collateral to back trading positions? Could there be another (nefarious) purpose in these gold-leasing operations?

We know there isn’t any other legitimate purpose for all this leasing, since (apart from using it in trading) there are no legitimate business reasons for wanting mere temporary possession of gold bullion. As the gold-bashers themselves frequently observe, gold “generates no income” itself; so this leased gold must be used (for something) or there would be no purpose at all to these transactions.

Until recently, it would have been hard to conceive of even any other nefarious uses for all this leased gold, since there simply are not a lot of ways to capitalize on mere temporary possession of gold bullion. This all changed , however, in 2009. That was the year that the world’s central banks flip-flopped from being (massive) net-sellers of gold to net-buyers.

As of 2012, the world’s central banks are now massive, net buyers of gold; on pace to add more gold to their reserves than any other year in history. GFMS Ltd (formerly Gold Fields Mineral Services), the quasi-official record-keeper for the gold industry estimates that total purchases will approach 500 tons this year alone.

This begs an obvious question. Where is all this gold coming from?

It’s not coming from the gold miners. Currently, global mine supply is roughly 2,800 tonnes of gold per year. However, of that annual total 2,000 tonnes is already committed to the wholesalers who supply the global jewelry industry. With demand for gold by investors surging; more than 1,500 tonnes per year is siphoned out of the gold market by investors.

Note that by itself this already creates a large supply-deficit in the gold market, one which can only be addressed by (supposed) “recycling”. The mainstream media would have us believe that there is virtually an inexhaustible supply of gold waiting to be recycled each year. This myth is fueled by the record-keeping of GFMS, itself.

In the fantasy-world in which GFMS operates, supply perfectly matches demand every year – right down to the ounce. Gold inventories never change. If there is a supply-deficit of 1,700 tonnes in 2011, presto!, 1,700 tonnes of “recycled gold” appears in the marketplace to balance all the ledgers. You don’t have to be a cynic (like myself) to note that the only “gold” which can be instantly/magically conjured up to meet any level of demand is the “paper gold” which banks like Morgan Stanley have been known to sell to their Chumps.

 

In actual fact, the mainstream media itself is acknowledging that the supply of recycled gold for the market is already drying-up, just as the world’s central banks begin their own buying-binge.

With roughly 3,500 tonnes of gold per year committed to investors and jewelers, this puts current gold demand by central banks in approximately a tie for 3rd place, with annual industrial demand for gold. Thus even though central banks are the largest individual buyers of gold; collectively they are still merely a small niche of the overall market.

This leads us to refine our earlier question. If more than 100% of annual gold supply is already committed to other (established) users; where are central banks able to purchase gold by the 10’s of tonnes? The only known/official stockpiles of gold in such quantities are held by the central banks themselves – and they aren’t selling.

The one exception to this is the gold hoard of the IMF. However, apart from its one ultra-hyped sale of 400 tons of gold (half of which was gobbled-up in a single purchase), it has sold no gold, and is not legally allowed to sell a single ounce without overall approval of the IMF membership. This is a process which (as we have recently seen) takes years to complete.

In short, there are no apparent (visible) stockpiles/inventories of gold anywhere in the world to meet the large, incremental demand of the world’s central banks. Of interest, when these central banks announce their large purchases, they themselves never identify the source of all this “gold”.

Putting aside the issue of legal title to such quantities of gold, the only entities who (plausibly) might be in possession of such quantities of gold are (surprise! surprise!) the very same bullion banks at the root of all shorting/manipulation in the gold market.

We know these bullion banks are not owners of the near-500 tons of gold which the central banks needed (this year alone) to satisfy their suddenly insatiable appetite for the world’s premier financial asset. It would take years for the bullion banks to accumulate enough gold to meet demand for this year alone. And as previously stated, gold generates no income – meaning it would be absurd for the bullion banks to accumulate such vast quantities of gold hoping that a buyer might show up, and then selling that gold (apparently) at close to “spot” price.

Simply put, there are no visible owners – anywhere on the planet – for all the “gold” which the world’s central banks now claim to be buying. The only places where such large quantities of gold might be possessed could not possibly be the owners of all that gold. This brings us back to “gold leasing”, and (suddenly) a whole new purpose (i.e. scam) for this activity.

We have the West’s central banks claiming to be the holders of vast quantities of gold (but not sellers), and we have the East’s central banks claiming to be large buyers of gold – but with no visible supply of gold available anywhere on the planet to meet that annual demand. Enter gold leasing.

The West’s central banks “lease” vast quantities of gold to the bullion banks (at zero cost to those banks), who then “sell” that gold to the seemingly naïve buyers from the East. And (very possibly) “lease” the same ounces of gold again and again and again. “Leveraging” assets is as natural to bankers as breathing is to mammals.

This brings us to a final, recent item making its way into the news. Apparently many European governments (starting with Germany and the Netherlands) are getting very nervous about all the tons of gold they believe is stored on their behalf in the United States.

There is now serious political pressure for this gold to at least be audited (for the first time in decades), if not immediately repossessed/repatriated to these nations. The only entities in Germany and the Netherlands who (strangely) are not worried or even interested in proving the existence of this gold are – you guessed it – the central bankers of Germany and the Netherlands.

With vast amounts of gold being leased each year from undisclosed entities, and vast amounts of gold being sold each year from undisclosed entities; it’s no surprise that people in Germany, the Netherlands, and other European nations are (belatedly) wondering how many other nations may now be claiming title to the gold they “own”.

Trackback(0)
Comments (8)Add Comment
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, November 05, 2012
Thank you for your response Jeff, but still a question lingers. If the market controls not only the price but transactions, how does the price of gold float upward if the 'market mechanism' doesn't provide for publishing the actual price in a virtual black market?


Here I'm afraid the question becomes too speculative to provide any definitive answer, because we could be looking at a multitude of scenarios.

Is the futures market still operational, or completely closed-down?

Will CONFISCATION take place concurrently or immediately after some sort of collapse or decoupling in the market? In that case we would/could have an ACTUAL black market.

And as my previous two-parter ("The Road To Bullion Default") discusses, will we have a formal default event OR simply a decoupling between the physical and paper markets? These two alternatives alone represent totally different scenarios.

Again, all this is just basic ARITHMETIC. Under-pricing WILL destroy inventories. The destruction of inventories WILL result in a correction toward fair-market values.

These things MUST happen, and the longer/more extremely the banksters continue their manipulation; the more violent the correction when it finally takes place.

ettienn
...
written by ettienn, November 05, 2012
Thank you for your response Jeff, but still a question lingers. If the market controls not only the price but transactions, how does the price of gold float upward if the 'market mechanism' doesn't provide for publishing the actual price in a virtual black market?
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, November 05, 2012
If there are no markets, but only manipulation (as postulated in some of the comments above), then is gold serving as merely mirage as a store of wealth? If the Banksters are able to manipulate gold and silver prices at the pleasure, then don't gold and silver become merely a relic of the past and a mirage in the present?

Are we believers in gold as self delusional as grandma's holding 1% bonds?


Fair question Etienn.

This is why whenever I talk about recent and/or extreme market-manipulation by the Banking Cabal I try to make sure I include noting that these criminal tactics can only TEMPORARILY distort/destroy the precious metals market.

Specifically (as I noted in a recent commentary), there is one HUGE factor which separates manipulation of bullion (and commodity) markets versus manipulating purely paper markets (like debt markets): these "physical" markets require REAL INVENTORY to satisfy (some) trading.

Thus, since under-pricing ALWAYS leads to a collapse in inventories, and ALL commodity markets require real/physical inventories, manipulation of all such markets MUST FAIL.
ettienn
...
written by ettienn, November 05, 2012
If there are no markets, but only manipulation (as postulated in some of the comments above), then is gold serving as merely mirage as a store of wealth? If the Banksters are able to manipulate gold and silver prices at the pleasure, then don't gold and silver become merely a relic of the past and a mirage in the present?

Are we believers in gold as self delusional as grandma's holding 1% bonds?
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, October 31, 2012
Forgive my ignorance, but I thought the gold-leasing scam (or a part of it, at least) was that the lessees use the gold for jewelry or other purposes (hoarding?) and simply "return it" in the form of dollars. Essentially, there is never any intention to return the gold to the lessor. In this fashion gold is sold without a sale ever being recorded. It enters the marketplace stealthily, increasing the apparent supply and forcing the gold price down.

Am I wrong about this?

Thx.


MrPaladin, part of the beauty of gold-leasing (which I forgot to emphasize) is the lack of transparency in these transactions. Simply, there is no obligation by bullion-holders to REPORT any leases of their gold -- in the way that outright sales are recorded/disclosed.

What this means is that we have no way of tracing exactly how much gold is being leased OR what purposes it is used for. It is CERTAINLY possible that some of this leased gold could be "sold" to the jewelry industry.

However, I personally suspect that the Oligarchs would prefer to have most of the jewelry/industrial output covered by a legitimate supply chain (mining and recycling), for one good reason.

In the paper gold market, if/when their leverage and scams collapse, the Chumps holding all this "paper gold" are entitled to nothing more than PAPER as compensation -- something which (as we know) the banksters can conjure by the $trillions.

Conversely, with respect to the jewelers/industrial users; PAPER is of no use to them. So if THEY were being scammed, and the scam collapsed; suddenly there is an IMMEDIATE need to come up with a large quantity of fresh supply to meet that demand.

Much safer to ONLY scam the "investors" (and central bank Chumps)... smilies/wink.gif
MrPaladin
...
written by MrPaladin, October 31, 2012
Forgive my ignorance, but I thought the gold-leasing scam (or a part of it, at least) was that the lessees use the gold for jewelry or other purposes (hoarding?) and simply "return it" in the form of dollars. Essentially, there is never any intention to return the gold to the lessor. In this fashion gold is sold without a sale ever being recorded. It enters the marketplace stealthily, increasing the apparent supply and forcing the gold price down.

Am I wrong about this?

Thx.
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, October 29, 2012
Jeff: the supply deficit that you mention is actually worse when you consider that 1)both Russia and China (and a few of the 'stans) do not allow export of any gold produced in-country; it goes directly to the CB or Treasury, 2) that the production from such stalwarts as South Africa and Australia is actually declining, and 3) the rising costs of labor, fuel and water are distressing gold miners' balance sheets to the extent that many marginal projects are being shelved. I would imagine that we are already at "peak" gold, at least at today's prices.



Good points Apberusdisvet.

It's quite clear that $1500/oz is (at best) a break-even price for the gold-mining industry as a whole, factoring in all the exploration costs -- and necessary return on capital.

And as you say, with inflation steadily pushing up costs; that number will rise rapidly. It may not be a matter of (absolute) "peak gold" today; but rather EFFECTIVE peak gold -- as prices aren't allowed to rise high enough to significantly boost global mine production.
apberusdisvet
...
written by apberusdisvet, October 29, 2012
Jeff: the supply deficit that you mention is actually worse when you consider that 1)both Russia and China (and a few of the 'stans) do not allow export of any gold produced in-country; it goes directly to the CB or Treasury, 2) that the production from such stalwarts as South Africa and Australia is actually declining, and 3) the rising costs of labor, fuel and water are distressing gold miners' balance sheets to the extent that many marginal projects are being shelved. I would imagine that we are already at "peak" gold, at least at today's prices.

Write comment
You must be logged in to post a comment. Please register if you do not have an account yet.

busy

Latest Commentary

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • 10
  • 11
  • 12

Latest Comments

Disclaimer:

BullionBullsCanada.com is not a registered investment advisor - Stock information is for educational purposes ONLY. Bullion Bulls Canada does not make "buy" or "sell" recommendations for any company. Rather, we seek to find and identify Canadian companies who we see as having good growth potential. It is up to individual investors to do their own "due diligence" or to consult with their financial advisor - to determine whether any particular company is a suitable investment for themselves.

Login Form