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Thursday, December 18, 2014
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Paper-Gold Holders Flee To Real Metal

Articles & Blogs - Gold Commentary

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During the recent, massive slaughter in the (paper) gold market, investors have been bombarded with a million-and-one “explanations” by the mainstream media as to why people are “fleeing gold”. The problem is that not one of them is consistent with the known facts.

It has been widely reported that holdings of gold-ETF’s have plunged (by the largest amounts on record). At this point analysis becomes simple: if these people were “fleeing gold” there would be massive stacks of gold piling up in warehouses – as people discarded all of this “unwanted” yellow metal.

So, where is the gold?

In fact, back in the real world; Comex gold inventories (the same inventories from which the ETF’s are stocked) have plummeted by the largest amounts on record. Instead of inventories increasing by the largest amounts on record (what the mainstream is expressly implying with their “fleeing gold” rhetoric), we have precisely the opposite.

[chart courtesy of Nick Laird, Sharelynx.com]

After the most-massive (paper) liquidation in the history of precious metals markets; we don’t see massive stacks of unwanted gold, only massive stacks of unwanted paper. This brings us to the important question: what has really transpired in the gold market? Just follow the numbers.

We see (simultaneously) a massive liquidation of paper gold occurring along with a “run” on Comex gold inventories. In fact, there is only one explanation consistent with those facts: paper-gold holders have been swapping that paper for real metal. Put into market vernacular; people have been redeeming their units of paper gold – and taking delivery of physical bullion. A flight out of paper.

Naturally, this leads to a secondary question: what could have caused the most-massive flight out of the paper-gold market since Western bankers created this gigantic (paper) market? Regular readers have already answered that question themselves: the Cyprus Steal.


As has been documented in several previous commentaries; with that “precedent” Western governments put all paper-holders on notice that none of their paper was safe. Concurrently, we discovered that most Western regimes had (quietly) already put in place their own “bail-in” mechanism – with Canada’s Conservative government notably ‘carving it in stone’ in its latest, official Budget.

We now have an explanation for the massive sell-off in ‘paper gold’ which not only is perfectly consistent with the facts (chronologically), but also comes with a perfect motive – which sprung into existence at the exact moment that the paper-gold liquidation began…sort of.

At this point; any readers still wearing their ‘rose-coloured glasses’ are urged to remove those spectacles in order to get a very close look at the dates involved here. As we all know, the (choreographed) Cyprus Steal was perpetrated in late March. However, both the liquidation of paper-gold holdings and the collapse of gold inventories (i.e. the flight out of paper-gold) began in February.

Isn’t this extraordinary? We have our governments creating (and announcing) the risk for any/all holders of paper assets held in financial institutions in late-March. And we have the Big Money responding to that sudden threat to their wealth (in a very dramatic, and very obvious way) in February.

How do we know that it was the Big Money which was dumping their paper-gold (at the fastest rate ever) and swapping it for real metal? Because the gold-ETF’s are structured to only make it possible for large unit-holders to “take delivery” in this manner. Small gold-holders are unable to access the Comex “physical” inventories. The fact-pattern makes it crystal-clear this is Big Money on the move.

Already the cacophony of the Media Apologists can be heard. This is a “conspiracy theory!” Yes, and one with a very interesting “precedent” of its own. As all those who have closely followed the Cyprus Steal have already heard, it turns out the Big Money had been tipped-off there too, and had began withdrawing their funds from Cyprus banks accounts (you guessed it) in February.

As has been previously explained; the planning for the Cyprus Steal (i.e. the “bail-in”) goes back at least 18 months, at least as a concept. The precise choreography – including obtaining the secret cooperation of the Cyprus government – is obviously more recent than that. Following that, we had the Big Money commence their flight out of paper in February; and then the (rest of the) world was “surprised” by the Cyprus Steal in late-March.

This “explanation” for the liquidation of paper-gold is composed 100% of known facts and extremely obvious inferences from the dates involved in this chronology. Conversely, mainstream media rhetoric on this subject is 100% inconsistent with the known facts and is also entirely bereft of any motive/explanation.

Why would paper-gold holders suddenly “flee gold” at this particular moment in time? We get nothing but circular reasoning. Because the (paper) price for gold has fallen, “this proves…” one thing or another. Those readers not familiar with the term “circular reasoning” are encouraged to look-up the definition (and the pseudo-logic behind it) to determine for themselves that these are not explanations. This is anti-logic. Why has the paper-gold market crashed? Because the price has fallen. Drivel.

At this point, all those readers residing in the real world have a very clear choice before them. They can accept the “explanation” of the mainstream media for the collapse of the paper gold market. And they can do so despite the fact that this explanation is completely contradicted by all known facts, and is “backed up” by nothing more than the anti-logic of their circular reasoning.

Or readers can choose to accept an explanation which is 100% consistent with the known facts, and comes readily equipped  with a perfect and obvious motive.

None of your paper is safe in any financial institution. Our governments have formally and publicly declared this to all of us. And as we have seen with their Cyprus bank accounts and their paper-gold holdings; the Big Money is taking this threat very, very seriously.


[Readers are encouraged to tune-in to my daily dialogue on the precious metals sector; The Daily Grind. ]

Comments (11)Add Comment
Alexander Del Mar
written by Alexander Del Mar, June 25, 2013
I do believe that the GLD redemptions by the necessarily big players are accompanied by withdrawals from COMEX and LBMA warehouses and deposits into private, German, and Asian vaults.

In mid August 2011, news arise that Chavez is demanding his 211 tons of gold in Europe to be shipped home. Presumably, he has spent months trying to get it discretely (why advertise its location?) but failed, resorting to calling for it publicly. At the same time, in June 2011, he gets cancer, which kills him eventually. A public lesson to presidents: Don't demand delivery!

Germany has demanded its gold back from the NYFed, which agreed to ship at the rate of only 50 tons a year (1,700 tons will take some 34 years!). This has to come from somewhere, if the NYFed vault is emptyish.

What happens? The US sponsored invasion of Lybia through French/British proxies started in March 2011 and Lybia's 200 tons of gold then "disappeared." Meanwhile, in the midst of the invasion, the "revolutionaries" in Benghazi created the Benghazi Central Bank, as if fighting Ghadaffi weren't enough of a priority. Where did the gold go? To honor Chavez's repatriation, and maintain semblance of honesty?

This year, Mali gets invaded, it is one of Africa's top producers of gold, about 50 tons a year. Isn't this just what the NYFEd needed to honor its measly commitment to ship 50 tons a year to Germany?

Of course, we know China has been accumulating stealthily for years, and has some leverage vis-a-vis the US given all the debt it holds. (It could buy up a lot of futures gold and stand for delivery, breaking the COMEX.) We can be sure that China is indeed standing for delivery.

Then we have the central banks, which have in the last two years reversed a secular trend of selling 400 tons annually into the market, to a trend of demanding even more annually.

All these stories - Chavez, Bundesbank/NYFed, China, central banks - imply demand for PHYSICAL.

Which brings us to the current smash. It is just a way to force leveraged GLD holders to sell, so the ETF can release the underlying physical gold to satisfy the demand for physical. This year alone, over 350 tons from GLD have been released!

Perhaps when Paulson is forced out of GLD, will be when gold recovers.
written by dgierl, April 21, 2013

You are quite correct concerning the sovereign (and some other coins). Numismatic hobbyists in the US use what I stated to be the definition as all of our coins are that way. I assume it was stated that way to be easier for a novice to decide if what they were looking at was a "coin" or a "medallion" (aka, "round").

Many ancient coins also do not state a face value and are if fact "coins". The "legal tender" is the key. When an item is legal tender, it also comes under the nations counterfeiting laws which usually makes the penalties for producing fakes more intense than for trademark or copyright infringements.

The US mint call the presidential "First Spouse" series "Coins", however, the hobby does not as they do not have a face value and are not legal tender. I'm honestly not sure if they are under the counterfeiting laws or not, as they are struck by the US Mint. They are, at least, protected by the "Hobby protection act" which insists that copies are marked as such on the item. Violations of this law have different penalties than do the US anti-counterfeiting laws.
Jeff Nielson
written by Jeff Nielson, April 20, 2013
I am aware that all paper PM is not created equal. I am concerned that the distinctions may not be sufficient to make a difference, particularly in light of your warnings in this article. Do the distinctions of CEF and PSLV held in a Scottrade account provide any protection from the problems you warn about?

Deca, this was a complex issue even BEFORE the Cyprus Steal; and so recent events might actually simplify things.

First of all, yes, as you point out not all "paper bullion" is created equal. Certainly the funds you list have superb reputations for transparency and legitimacy which "sets them apart" from their peers (lol), shall we say?

My worry however, even with the more reputable funds was Bullion Confiscation. The wonderful ADVANTAGE of "bullion funds" (for banks and governments who like to STEAL) is that they can clean out entire funds with just "point and click." It would/will be somewhat more difficult to PRY "physical bullion" from its holders (lol!).

But now things are SIMPLER. Maybe they steal your paper bullion for the METAL? Maybe they steal your paper bullion just for the paper? When I'm weighing the pro's and con's for a particular investment, I don't like seeing MULTIPLE check-marks under the category "might get stolen."
written by deca, April 20, 2013
I am aware that all paper PM is not created equal. I am concerned that the distinctions may not be sufficient to make a difference, particularly in light of your warnings in this article. Do the distinctions of CEF and PSLV held in a Scottrade account provide any protection from the problems you warn about?
written by Norbull, April 20, 2013
"Thanks for the clarification Norbull -- a little North American tunnel-vision amongst us over here (lol). However, as I've argued in the past in previous commentaries; I LIKE the fact that North American minted coins DO have a face-value -- since that is what makes them "legal tender".
Thanks Jeff,
Thankfully the sovereign is legal tender in the UK and is also free from Inheritance Tax and Capital Gains Tax. (At least for the moment!) Are they legal tender in Canada (you used to mint them (100 years ago!)
Here silver is more of a problem because of Value Added Tax (20%). The only way around that is to buy silver from the likes of goldmoney.com and have them store it outside the banking system. You only pay the VAT if you take delivery.
There's a strange anomoly in the silver market here at this moment. You can buy new £2 Brittannias for £18.99 (plus VAT) (31.21g) ..... and the 2013 minting is .999 purity. Or you can buy 2012 Brittannias for £23.75 (32.45g) (plus VAT)... but the 2012 minting was the last of the old 95.8% 'Brittannia' silver minting. Go figure!
Jeff Nielson
written by Jeff Nielson, April 20, 2013
"For those who don't know the difference, coins are officially minted by a government with a set "face value". Rounds usually look like coins but don't carry a face value and are produced by a private company."

Not entirely true.
One of the reasons I like GB gold sovereigns is that they do not carry any face value. Not even the name 'Sovereign'!
Historically a sovereign equalled £1 sterling, but I like to think a sovereign is a sovereign. I can imagine difficulties arising if you had to make a purchase from someone with a £2 Brittania or $5 dollar Maple/ Eagle or whatever, where someone wants to argue that the value must be the figure stamped on the coin...

Thanks for the clarification Norbull -- a little North American tunnel-vision amongst us over here (lol). However, as I've argued in the past in previous commentaries; I LIKE the fact that North American minted coins DO have a face-value -- since that is what makes them "legal tender".

I think that from at least a psychological standpoint this makes them "better money" if (when) the paper becomes worthless and we need to use our bullion. But I've also argued that at least POTENTIALLY there are taxation benefits -- which could (should?) operate on both sides of the Atlantic:

Preventing Your Government From Stealing Your Gold

Jeff Nielson
written by Jeff Nielson, April 20, 2013
Thanks for your efforts to keep your website readers informed during this frenetic period. I've only just returned from China, where I was out of the loop from all mainstream news for over a week. A friendly employee at my hotel was the first to tell me about the Boston event.

On my flights home, I was able to pick up the Asia editions of the WSJ and FT. It is truly staggering to see these issues we discuss printed on broadsheet and in clear sight for the general public. Of course they resort to much obfuscation and circular logic trying to explain the price drops, but the newfound interest in the public at large cannot be ignored.

You're very welcome Dalkrin. Much like markets can only be perverted (by fraud/manipulation) for finite periods; the Truth can only be concealed from the Sheep for a limited duration -- no matter how well-brainwashed those Sheep have become. smilies/wink.gif
written by Norbull, April 20, 2013
"For those who don't know the difference, coins are officially minted by a government with a set "face value". Rounds usually look like coins but don't carry a face value and are produced by a private company."

Not entirely true.
One of the reasons I like GB gold sovereigns is that they do not carry any face value. Not even the name 'Sovereign'!
Historically a sovereign equalled £1 sterling, but I like to think a sovereign is a sovereign. I can imagine difficulties arising if you had to make a purchase from someone with a £2 Brittania or $5 dollar Maple/ Eagle or whatever, where someone wants to argue that the value must be the figure stamped on the coin.
I made a purchase of sovereigns just before the correction... they've taken two weeks to deliver and it may be that the dealer has made a killing at my expense. However, in the long run it wont make much difference. As so often happens, it is quite difficult to make a purchase of coins at the lower prices. Many dealers will simply not take orders. Many will not hold large stocks and will rely on going to a bullion bank after receiving your order. If the price rises in the meantime, they lose. One of my concerns is that if you do not have a local dealer where you can buy over the counter you do have a period of counterparty risk whilst you are waiting for delivery, and any dealer who takes lots of orders on the assumption that the price is going to fall further could go bust with your money if the price rose before you took delivery.
written by Dalkrin, April 19, 2013
Hi Jeff,

Thanks for your efforts to keep your website readers informed during this frenetic period. I've only just returned from China, where I was out of the loop from all mainstream news for over a week. A friendly employee at my hotel was the first to tell me about the Boston event.

On my flights home, I was able to pick up the Asia editions of the WSJ and FT. It is truly staggering to see these issues we discuss printed on broadsheet and in clear sight for the general public. Of course they resort to much obfuscation and circular logic trying to explain the price drops, but the newfound interest in the public at large cannot be ignored.

Thailand, Singapore, and almost all other parts of Asia were keen to pick up gold at these "on-sale" prices.

As I readjust back to my home environment, I too expect to do my part to pick up either 20 oz. silver or 1 oz. gold shortly.

The future seems to be rushing at us with accelerating speed.
Jeff Nielson
written by Jeff Nielson, April 19, 2013
As I've heard many times from many sources, is that the person/entity that sold the pile of contracts that caused the big slide to start had to be trying to manipulate the price. If he/they were just trying to sell a position, it wouldn't have been dumped all at once at a time when there were few, if any, buyers.

That said, I believe they have started a wave of buying in the physical markets. Most of the precious metals dealers I have and do deal with either are "out of stock", "delayed delivery", or just plainly have much higher prices than the paper price (currently called a premium but soon to be called the real price.)

I personally have bought double this month what I normally buy. Yes, I still plan on buying next month. I may be straining the budget a bit, but it lets me sleep better at night, knowing that I don't just have paper as wealth...

DGierl, as I pointed out on the clip I just did at "SGT Report"; we are so used to any/all drops in price being the obvious product of manipulation that we automatically ASSUME this is the case whenever prices fall -- especially an unprecedented PAPER liquidation of this nature.

However, unlike the (totally artificial) SHORTING operations taking place; there is REAL SELLING taking place here. Even though the selling is only (phony) paper gold; the TRANSACTIONS are real.

Understand that the Big Buyers dumping their paper-gold produces the same effect as shorting -- it's two sides of the same coin. So the question then becomes: IS the paper-liquidation intensifying (since inventory data is always at least a week old)??

If we see PAPER holdings continue to plummet AND Comex inventories continue to disintegrate; then this ENTIRE event could be a power-play by the Big Buyers -- as I explain in today's edition of The Daily Grind:

written by dgierl, April 18, 2013
As I've heard many times from many sources, is that the person/entity that sold the pile of contracts that caused the big slide to start had to be trying to manipulate the price. If he/they were just trying to sell a position, it wouldn't have been dumped all at once at a time when there were few, if any, buyers.

That said, I believe they have started a wave of buying in the physical markets. Most of the precious metals dealers I have and do deal with either are "out of stock", "delayed delivery", or just plainly have much higher prices than the paper price (currently called a premium but soon to be called the real price.)

I personally have bought double this month what I normally buy. Yes, I still plan on buying next month. I may be straining the budget a bit, but it lets me sleep better at night, knowing that I don't just have paper as wealth.

If one lives in the US, as I do, you have to keep in mind that confiscation of precious metals does have a historical presidence. The few times one was allowed to keep their precious metals was if it was fabricated into jewelry, a rare or scarce coin (only allowed to keep up to 3 of each date and mint mark), or if it was the coin of the realm (silver quarters, dimes, halves, dollars only) to be used in daily transactions. Also, you were allowed to keep your gold if it was only a small amount. (I forget the amount but believe it was $100 which would have been 10 eagles or 5 double eagles, etc.) This is why I have more coins than rounds or bars. Coins cost more but may be safer to own. Of course there are no guarantees this will be the case in the future.

On another note, one must be careful not to buy counterfeit items. There are many coins, bars, and rounds that have been fraudulently made or altered. Know about what you buy and only buy from sources you have found to be trustworthy.

For those who don't know the difference, coins are officially minted by a government with a set "face value". Rounds usually look like coins but don't carry a face value and are produced by a private company.

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