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Decoupling In Precious Metals Markets

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As massive supply-deficits and vanishing inventories lead to greater and greater stress in our totally corrupted precious metals markets; these dynamics push us toward one of two potential ‘implosion’ events. One of these gruesome endings is obvious: a formal default in the gigantic “futures” markets for precious metals which now completely dominate the real, legitimate markets.

The other path toward implosion is less-direct, less-obvious, and thus much less discussed. However, for forthcoming reasons it is also (by far) the most likely manner in which the phony/fraudulent “paper” markets for gold and silver will be discredited, and (more or less) exposed for what they really are. This Second Path is a “decoupling” between the paper prices for gold and silver and the real price for gold and silver in legitimate, “physical” markets.

Why is this more likely? A better way to answer to that question is to itemize the list of reasons why the Establishment in general (and the Bullion Banks) in particular would want to avoid a formal default in their cherished, paper markets – at any/all costs.

These reasons all ultimately trace back to a single theme: a formal default would expose all of the corruption and crime in these markets, and (equally important) legitimize/validate the growing Voice which has been clamoring about the blatant corruption and manipulation in the paper bullion markets. With this “clamor” having now begun to spread to the mainstream media itself; the threat to the Bullion Banks who manipulate these markets has never been greater.

What does a formal default in these markets imply?

To begin with, it would expose a massive campaign of lies. How many (mainstream) articles have been written claiming that precious metals markets are amply supplied with physical inventories – if not over-supplied? How many mainstream articles have been written alleging that gold and/or silver are “overvalued”? How many more descend all the way to the hyperbolic absurdity that these (grossly under-owned) assets are “in a bubble”?

Asserting the precise opposite of reality, countless thousands of times is not “innocent mistake”; it is malicious propaganda. And it is conduct for which the banksters themselves are on the record to confessing.

In The Great Gold Debate” which occurred in 2010; former Goldman Sachs banker and present head of the CPM Group Jeffrey Christian publicly confessed that the spreading of malicious propaganda was a regular tactic of these Bullion Banks – going as far back as the 1990’s.

The particular example cited by Christian was the disastrous sale by the Bank of England of roughly half of its gold reserves at under $300/oz. Legions of critics accused the BoE of undermining its own gold-sale by announcing in advance its intention to dump all this gold onto the global market – in “one gulp.”

Christian defended the Bank of England. He pointed out that the Bullion Banks at that time were regularly (and maliciously) spreading rumors that various governments were “about to dump gold” onto the market – in order to manipulate bullion prices lower. Christian asserted that this “forced” the BoE to announce its sale in advance, in order to thwart more of this rumor-mongering by the banksters.

Naturally, a formal default in any bullion market would expose the fraud/corruption of the current generation of banksters – as well as the pseudo-regulators who have facilitated this corruption. A formal default indicates a market which has literally “blown up”; much like the same cabal of banksters blew-up the global financial system in 2008 (via more, massive fraud/corruption).

 

Lastly, a formal default would necessitate substantial (if not total) reforms of any future “futures” market which the banking cabal would inevitably attempt to cobble-together out of the rubble of their past crimes. It is, in every respect (for the bankers) a worst-case scenario.

This brings us to “decoupling.” What is this? It is a single (corrupt) market splitting into two markets: a discredited/phony paper market, and a legitimate market trading real metal at legitimate prices.

Understand that either a default or a decoupling is absolute proof that we have been dealing with totally artificial prices for gold and silver. No one is asserting that “there isn’t any” gold or silver left to mine out of the Earth’s crust. Quite the opposite: dozens and dozens of mining companies are ‘withering on the vine’ because despite having proven reserves of gold and/or silver, they can’t get financing to turn those deposits into mines – because metals prices are far too low (to bring adequate supply to the market).

A default or decoupling would prove beyond any possible shadow of a doubt that those “low prices” were fraudulent prices. This brings us to our final topics for analysis: how would/could a “decoupling” occur; and do we have any evidence it is occurring?

The precise evolution of a decoupling event cannot be predicted, since there are too many variables and permutations involved. However, one thing we know we certainly will not see is to wake up one morning, open the newspaper and (suddenly) see two, “official” prices for gold/silver: the “paper price” and the “real price.” Such truth-in-advertising is not what we have come to expect from the Corporate Media (which owns all of the newspapers).

In other words, decoupling must begin as an unofficial event. It will be a steady drip, drip, drip. Anecdotal reports of large/growing and persistent “premiums” being paid by any Buyers who actually want to end up with real metal in their hands. This would/could be combined with opposite anecdotal evidence of large/growing and persistent “discounts” for “paper bullion” products.

In fact, a Decoupling would/could evolve from exactly the sort of anecdotal reports we are now seeing today, on a daily basis.

One cannot read any article on the gold market today without seeing reports of “soaring physical demand” leading to multi-year highs or even all-time records in the “premiums” being paid in order to obtain real bullion. Simultaneously, we read of “growing discounts” in the paper-bullion markets.

Perhaps most important of all; we now have the mainstream media implicitly declaring that we already have “two markets” for gold. What is the latest anti-gold talking-point from the Corporate Media? That gold is now “in a bear market.” Really?

By definition, high demand is a “bull market”: the bulls stampeding into a market, with high demand being the empirical proof. Yet in the same Bloomberg article asserting “a bear market in gold” we see the following quote (and several others which echoed it):

Physical demand has been tremendous in a way I haven’t seen for a number of years,” said Jeffrey Rhodes, global head of precious metals at INTL FCStone Inc…

Clearly, we currently have a bull market for physical gold (and silver). So when Bloomberg (and all the rest of the Corporate Media) yammer on about “a bear market in gold”; what gold market are they talking about? That’s right: their own paper market – empirically proven by the recent collapse in demand for paper gold.

It is the Corporate Media itself which is now presenting unequivocal evidence that we already have “two markets” for gold (with similar rhetoric/evidence in the silver market). So let’s attach some numbers to this Decoupling.

As of this writing; the largest of the paper-gold funds (GLD) is trading at approximately a 3.5% discount to the “spot” price; while the largest paper-silver fund (SLV) is trading at roughly a 4% discount. Meanwhile, anecdotal reports of still-increasing premiums for real metal continue to flow in:

newly minted Silver Eagle coins are selling at a 24% premium to the silver price right now…Even though silver is selling for $23 per ounce right now, it will cost you almost $29 per ounce…A few months ago we could buy silver for just 4%-5% over the spot price.

Decoupling between the paper markets and the real markets is now approaching as much as 30% in the silver market, with the gold market not far behind. Equally important, this spread has soared by as much as 20% just in the past couple of months.

Decoupling is coming. The only question which remains is: is it already here?

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Comments (13)Add Comment
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, May 03, 2013
Yes, I'm not actually suggesting that any sane person should be trading their gold or silver for fiat at the present time (unless they have a pressing financial need)!
When you telephone your dealer for a price to sell, and he offers over spot, we will have proof of a true and total decoupling in the physical - paper markets.




Don't worry Norbull! I wasn't trying to corner you into being the first "Volunteer"... smilies/cheesy.gif
Norbull
...
written by Norbull, May 03, 2013
Yes, I'm not actually suggesting that any sane person should be trading their gold or silver for fiat at the present time (unless they have a pressing financial need)!
When you telephone your dealer for a price to sell, and he offers over spot, we will have proof of a true and total decoupling in the physical - paper markets.
quidproquocoins
...
written by quidproquocoins, May 02, 2013
I survived Hurricane Andrew. We needed everything on my list, except silver, back then. quidproquo
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, May 02, 2013
I don't have any intention of trading my precious metals money for paper money...My advice to myself, humble as it may be, would be, do not trade any paper for pm's that I did not intend to keep long term...



You're one step ahead of me Quidproquocoins (this is starting to be a disturbing TREND around here - lol).

Yes, before we can "test" decoupling by selling some metal above spot-price; we have to find some intrepid Volunteer -- willing to trade his gold and/or silver metal for the Banksters' magic beans. Lol!!!

Of course seriously; we can at least conduct this "test" at the hypothetical level by simply beginning to inquire (when we BUY our bullion) what we could SELL it for...should we have the crazy impulse to do so.

Just because we don't WANT to sell any of our bullion at the phony, paper prices doesn't mean that knowing what that price WOULD be (at any given moment) isn't useful information... smilies/wink.gif
quidproquocoins
...
written by quidproquocoins, May 02, 2013
I don't have any intention of trading my precious metals money for paper money. I have a reserve of cash, silver, food, ammunition and water. Gold and silver are not investments. They are insurance against the failure of paper fiat. You can trust the full faith and credit of the issuing authority of fiat paper, I do not. The gold and silver are for quidproquo transactions when the fiat paper has no perceived value. My advice to myself, humble as it may be, would be, do not trade any paper for pm's that I did not intend to keep long term. Trading gold and silver now is like lapsing your Insurance policies. My PM's have no margin. Most of the Gold and Silver I have were acquired before Gold traded over $1000 a troy ounce. quidproquo
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, May 02, 2013
The test here is whether your bullion or coin dealer is willing to pay more than spot when you want to sell your gold or silver coins back to him...I don't think we are quite there yet.


Yes Norbull, a great "test" indeed. I can't think of a single, better indicator that "decoupling" is here...just wish I would have thought of it first. smilies/cheesy.gif
Norbull
...
written by Norbull, May 02, 2013
The test here is whether your bullion or coin dealer is willing to pay more than spot when you want to sell your gold or silver coins back to him.
In many cases you are having to pay a large premium over spot on purchase, but at very best you are quoted the paper spot price if you enquire about selling.
Once dealers are willing to pay a premium if you want to sell back to them we will know that there is a total disconnect in the paper and physical markets. I don't think we are quite there yet.
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, May 01, 2013
Jeff: let's connect all the dots. Bernanke a no-show at Jackson Hole. Geithner leaves early. Many long serving pols are retiring. Police state in US ramping to absurd levels. Capital controls becoming reality on a global scale. Very serious problems, not only with the Euro periphery, but also with the core of France, Italy, the Netherlands and a make-or-break election coming in Germany. China's woes will be significantly felt in Japan and Australia. Only Russia is a question mark. What are the CB psychos to do? For a while now I have felt that on some Friday, before a Monday holiday, there will be a 30-50% devaluation of the USD, and thus an automatic revaluation of the PMs. That's the decoupling solution with no need for any mea culpas.


Apberusdisvet, unfortunately I'm with you here.

The word I keep using in my own dialogues is "desperation". Everything occurring now from the Cyprus Steal to the gold-smash reeks of desperation. And when do people get "desperate"? Just before something REALLY BAD is about to happen... smilies/sad.gif
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, May 01, 2013
In my humble view, this is what gold is. When you buy physical gold and put it in your pocket, you have exchanged the paper currency of your domical, for a hunk of metal, that is rare, difficult to find and extract from the earth. When you do this, it is one of the only ways to "opt out" of the Government Sanctioned form of "Money". When you do this, you are voting against the "system" that the government controls, and the government loses a degree of control over YOU. This makes the Government Bankers absolutely psycho nut crazy. There only option is to attack the value of that hunk of metal you have in your pocket, to try and induce you to trade that hunk of metal for their paper currency...



Quidproquocoins, what you're describing is what I've called a Reverse Beauty Contest. It's impossible to make their OWN paper currencies look attractive -- so the objective is to make the ALTERNATIVES (gold and silver) appear as "ugly" as possible. smilies/wink.gif
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, May 01, 2013
...Buy all the physical you can tomorrow so that we may piss in the faces of these criminals.
They are huge & we are small, but just like in Gulliver, we can bring this giant down.
When this paper Ponzi scheme collapses, the thunder will be heard around the world.




Bobbbny, as I've said before; I always prefer to frame our situation in defensive terms: we're protecting ourselves from Corrupt Authority.

The problem with expressing outrage at what is taking place in our societies (and our economies in particular) is that such ANGER can be used/turned against us... smilies/wink.gif
apberusdisvet
...
written by apberusdisvet, May 01, 2013
Jeff: let's connect all the dots. Bernanke a no-show at Jackson Hole. Geithner leaves early. Many long serving pols are retiring. Police state in US ramping to absurd levels. Capital controls becoming reality on a global scale. Very serious problems, not only with the Euro periphery, but also with the core of France, Italy, the Netherlands and a make-or-break election coming in Germany. China's woes will be significantly felt in Japan and Australia. Only Russia is a question mark. What are the CB psychos to do? For a while now I have felt that on some Friday, before a Monday holiday, there will be a 30-50% devaluation of the USD, and thus an automatic revaluation of the PMs. That's the decoupling solution with no need for any mea culpas.
quidproquocoins
...
written by quidproquocoins, April 30, 2013
In my humble view, this is what gold is. When you buy physical gold and put it in your pocket, you have exchanged the paper currency of your domical, for a hunk of metal, that is rare, difficult to find and extract from the earth. When you do this, it is one of the only ways to "opt out" of the Government Sanctioned form of "Money". When you do this, you are voting against the "system" that the government controls, and the government loses a degree of control over YOU. This makes the Government Bankers absolutely psycho nut crazy. There only option is to attack the value of that hunk of metal you have in your pocket, to try and induce you to trade that hunk of metal for their paper currency. Since the government is an absolute control freak, they will induce entities that they can influence, to use paper pledges, pledges that can be unrealistic, to influence the price of those pledges. When someone pledges to deliver what can be described as 10% or more of world gold production of newly mined gold, over the course of one year, in one day of trading, this is what you could kindly call, an overly optimistic ability to discharge the pledge to deliver. Luckily for the entity making the pledge, there is a mechanism that allows for a substitution of the material to be delivered. This substitute is usually in the form of the national paper currency of the country where the market resides. My personal view is, through your tantrum. I do not agree that the paper value of your pledge relates to the value that I place on that hunk of metal that I have in my pocket. Gold is an alternate form of currency that makes Governments insane over their lack of control. Gold is money.....silver too. quidproquo
bobbbny
...
written by bobbbny, April 30, 2013
Yes Jeff, it's already here.
I just paid 25% over paper spot for junk silver from my trusted dealer of 20 years.
Why?
Because that's the more real, though still way depressed price.
Once again I say thank you to the banksters for allowing me to buy here.
Tomorrow is the second anniversary of the silver slam of 2011.
May 1 is Buy Silver Day.
Buy all the physical you can tomorrow so that we may piss in the faces of these criminals.
They are huge & we are small, but just like in Gulliver, we can bring this giant down.
When this paper Ponzi scheme collapses, the thunder will be heard around the world.

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