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The Silly Silver Manipulators

Articles & Blogs - Silver Commentary

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It is now clear that the precious metals market was “set up” this week by the bankers for a major take-down (a “take-down” which is already starting to fizzle-out).

It began with the piece by World Bank president Robert Zoellick “suggesting” a return to some sort of gold standard. Having a banker come out with that remark was designed to whip the bulls into a manic frenzy – and it worked. Not only bullion prices, but the share prices of mining stocks began to shoot up in the rapid, erratic manner indicative of manic buying.

To “help” the process along, it’s clear that mining-shorts were actually pushing the share prices of gold and silver miners higher especially as the market opened Tuesday morning. Once they had longs extended (over-extended?) to the maximum degree, the “ambush” was launched: “margin” was reduced on silver trading accounts by about 30%, with absolutely no warning. Or rather, I should say there was no warning to the general public.

Apparently the bullion-banks were tipped-off, since despite their plans to ambush “longs”, the bullion-banks were covering their own short-positions (and taking heavy losses on rising prices) – to reduce their own margin in anticipation of this announcement. As a result, only the longs were forced to cover margin-calls after this “surprise” announcement. Then, with the bankers pushing-down on the silver price with all their might, they leveraged all of the long margin-players out of the silver market – inducing the expected, large drop in price.

No doubt the bankers (and the corrupt U.S. regulators who serve them) are busy patting themselves on the back for the “success” of their latest operation. However, to me, all that comes to mind is the image of Wile E. Coyote. Those who can still recall their cartoon-watching years will be familiar with how the attempts of poor, hapless Wile E. to trap the Roadrunner always ended-up (literally) blowing up in his face. And so it is with the bullion bankers.

Understand one of the economic principles which flows from the laws of supply and demand: any good which is under-priced will be over-consumed, and the greater the under-pricing, the greater the over-consumption. It is in this respect that just like Wile E. Coyote, the bullion banks are directly responsible for their own demise.

Ironically, the height of their idiocy came decades ago, when their dominance of the precious metals markets was absolute. Instead of simply moderating price-suppression (and thus stimulating only moderate over-consumption) the bankers pushed the gold and silver markets to the lowest prices possible – which maximized demand.

To make the long-term picture even worse for the bullion banks, they had pushed the price of gold so low that 90% of the world’s gold mines could no longer break-even, and had to shut down. Thus, not only had the bankers greatly stimulated demand, but they also served to greatly restrict supply. In the case of silver, the price was pushed so low that there were few “primary” silver mines left operating on the entire planet. Most silver production came as a “byproduct” of other mining, something which is still true to this day.

In other words, the bankers’ extreme price-manipulation artificially built-in huge supply deficits into both the gold and silver markets. Why is this so important (and detrimental) to the bullion banks?

Despite the natural inclination of these bankers to sell people paper, and call it “silver” or “gold”, as with any scam of this nature, the con-men (i.e. the bullion bankers) need some real metal to “seed” the market for all their paper-bullion scams. Indeed, most precious metals investors are now very familiar with the disclosure of Jeffrey Christian of the CPM Group, made during the CFTC hearings this spring. Christian told us that the ratio of “paper gold” to actual bullion was somewhere in the vicinity of 100:1.

There are two obvious observations to make in looking at that extreme ratio. First of all, that ratio has only soared to such a bubble-extreme (on the “short” side of the market) in recent years. In past decades, the bankers still had so much real metal to dump onto the market to suppress prices that there was no need to engage in such reckless, paper leverage. The other observation to make is that no matter how high that leverage increases, the bankers still need significant quantities of bullion (even with their leverage) to exert any control at all over the gold and silver markets.

The self-destruction of the bankers is more obvious when we focus upon silver. Unlike gold, silver had been pushed to such a cheap price that vast quantities of silver were being used in an almost countless number of new industrial applications. Indeed, new patents for silver-based technology have exceeded the patents for any other metal for many years.

Thus, in grossly under-pricing silver, the bullion banks are directly responsible for the explosion in industrial silver demand. In restricting supply, while radically stimulating demand, the bankers were enormously “successful”. In just a 15-year span, global silver inventories plummeted by 90%.

The other reason that this massive industrial demand is such an important factor with respect to silver-manipulation is that unlike “bullion investors”, with industrial silver-users there aren’t any chumps willing to buy into the bankers’ paper-bullion scams (i.e. the so-called “bullion-ETF’s” and their “unallocated” bullion accounts), since industrial users can’t use banker-paper in lieu of real silver.

If the bankers had elected to engage in only moderate price-suppression of silver, here is how the evolution of this market would have differed. First of all, it would have required only a tiny portion of all the real bullion which the bankers dumped onto the market to hold-down prices. Put another way, for each additional percentage-point that prices were pushed lower, it took exponentially increasing amounts of bullion to achieve that additional price-suppression.

In addition, if prices were only moderately suppressed there would have been vastly greater mine-supply each year and much lower demand. Put all these factors together, and it would have been relatively simple to engage in moderate manipulation at a level which did not result in any supply deficit for either silver or gold. In other words, their suppression scheme could have been perpetrated permanently, without the bankers ever running out of bullion, and thus with no need to leverage their bullion by 100:1, just to maintain a little residual control over this market (as is the situation today).

This obviously begs the question: why didn’t the bankers moderate their manipulation of these markets? First of all, there were more short-term profits available if they were willing to recklessly squander their bullion, and we all know how these greedy bankers can be counted upon to chase short-term profits. It was also simply more-evil to brutalize these markets (and market longs) to the maximum extent possible. Lastly, bankers have no understanding of basic economics.

We know that last point to be true, since to this very day, they continue to engage in behavior which must accelerate the date these markets implode (due to exhausting inventories), at which point prices will shoot many multiples higher and banker-losses on their short-positions will increase exponentially.

By 2005, when even the dim-witted bullion bankers must have noticed that 90% of their bullion was gone, the rational thing for these manipulators to do would have been to push the price of silver sharply higher. Had bankers encouraged the move of silver to a price above the $20/ounce level back then, instead of delaying that price-advance with all of their might, they could have moved the silver market back into a real surplus.

However, rather than seeking to increase inventories (and thus the life-span of their silver manipulation), the bankers simply increased their lying and cheating. On the one hand, with the aid of the quasi-official record-keepers for the gold and silver markets (GFMS and the CPM Group), they have engaged in ridiculous shams to try to pretend that silver inventories are much greater than they are – and have even created a phony “silver surplus” with their manipulated inventory numbers.

This inventory-fraud hides the fact that global silver inventories are getting closer and closer to complete exhaustion. Thus instead of industrial-users looking to substitute other inputs for silver (where possible) and scaling-back new applications, the bankers’ phony inventory numbers only encourage industrial users to increase their silver-based applications.

On the other hand, they have had to massively increase their bullion-scams (such as “SLV”), since with far less real silver around, and massive pent-up demand, the only way to delay implosion of the silver market is to push their paper-silver onto as many chumps as possible.

In short, if there was some “mole” within this banking cabal thirty years ago, who knew the intentions of the bankers and wanted to sabotage the bankers’ scheme, the mole would have chosen the exact same strategy which the bankers chose for themselves.

Much like Wile E. Coyote’s obsession with doing harm to the Roadrunner only resulted in infinite pain and suffering for himself, so too are the bullion-bankers ultimately causing the largest “injuries” to themselves. And while they are writing their own epitaphs, they are allowing savvy precious metals investors to buy cheap silver – one, last time.

 

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Comments (12)Add Comment
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, December 10, 2010
Steve, it's really not that difficult a thing - and we who talk about should probably spend more time clarifying this a little.

To simplify, let's pretend we're just talking about shares held by a company. You have buyers and sellers, who place either "offers" (to sell), or "bids" (to buy).

These bids and offers are naturally prioritized that so that the highest bids and lowest offers are the first to be traded. When offers start to greatly outnumber bids, they "hit" those top bids, and then start working LOWER.

Now selling something "naked" means simply selling something which you neither own, nor have you "borrowed". In plain words, it is counterfeiting.

So when someone "naked shorts" silver they take out the top bids, and then also start going lower and lower. And obviously someone who is prepared to "sell" something they don't own can USUALLY overwhelm those who must buy with REAL dollars.

However, because demand overwhelms (real) supply so radically, trying to "naked short" such a market results in you quickly 'leveraging' whatever bullion you really hold by astronomical amounts (in this case 100:1).

So while THEORETICALLY JP Morgan could engage in literally infinite counterfeiting, in reality, just as with Madoff, at some point the crime becomes so obvious, and so well known to so many people that it MUST be dealt with.

Thus, as with Madoff, when that day arrives JP Morgan goes "poof" into bankruptcy; unless the U.S. simply renounces its obligations - and turns the U.S. into a global, economic pariah, whom no one would ever trust again.
steve555
...
written by steve555, December 09, 2010
Hi Jeff,

How does JP Morgan manipulate the silver market? I am not from a financial background. I don't understand what it means by "Naked short selling". Is there an article for "dummies" which explains the JP Morgan silver manipulation?

Thanks.
goldeneconomizer
...
written by goldeneconomizer, November 18, 2010

apberusdisvet -

On the day this article by Jeff was published and the following day, I found that $2 to $2.50 an ounce was a fair premium being charged by the most reputable silver wholesaler I know due to the market uncertainty after the change in margin requirements for silver on the COMEX.

It had always been lower in the past, but physical supply had vanished and demand was still quite high although the paper "price" appeared to still be falling.

On Tuesday, the 9th, he refused to part with any silver at any price immediately after the price plummeted. All his suppliers had closed up and gone home, and he had no way of knowing what it would cost him to replace his inventory.

Thanks,

The Golden Economizer
http://goldeneconomizer.blogspot.com/
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, November 11, 2010
Thanks for the comments everyone.

It wouldn't surprise me if bullion shortages were showing up in all sorts of places.

After the Crash of '08 (and that massive commodities take-down) there was NO SILVER around at most North American dealers, except for the 100-oz bars. So the price fell by half because supposedly "demand" had fallen - except in reality all the supply was cleaned-out, and prices were held down by nothing but banker-paper.

That can't happen again, because back then the U.S. dollar was a "safe haven" (lol), and it was gold and silver which (according to the media) were "suspect". Obviously that situation has changed 180 degrees.

But supply shortages can and will happen again.
apberusdisvet
...
written by apberusdisvet, November 11, 2010
I would be interested in hearing from the rest of you on this site about what I found out today. I have been buying from a reputable local dealer (over 30 years in business) who will quote me the same premium as any on-line firm (on Ag, 79 to 89 cents over spot). Today he informed me regretfully, that he HAD NO BULLION until next week, and that the premium was now $2 over spot for Ag. (2.50 for coins).
sailortony
...
written by sailortony, November 11, 2010
I kind of suspected that the Morgan part of the video would get some of you boiling!

I agree with all you say about Morgan. On the other hand, I have a great deal of respect for James Turk.

He is a gentleman and a professional. He has for a long time been making good calls based on sound and well articulated opinions. But he is a salesman...

In any case they both have a large audience and their manipulation discussions being soft spoken will help spread the message.

The frauds and the world carnage these banksters continue to openly commit have to be stopped, but I doubt I will see that in my lifetime. That is one of the jobs, my children will inherit!

After all, Wile E. Coyote did not died yet, did he?
YHJIN6515
...
written by YHJIN6515, November 11, 2010
Silver is reported empty out in Hangzhou, China (Very close to Shanghai). Seems like silver story has been spread out to some smart street guys in China in some cities. It will spread like wild fire never seen before.
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, November 11, 2010
Yes, who knows where Morgan really stands? When one sentence is "silver could go higher" and the next is "silver remains tremendously over-bought", we get the old analyst trick of "calling" a move in both directions (at the same time) - and then whatever really DOES happen, Morgan will trot-out whichever HALF of his remarks were more applicable.

In my case, I don't make a lot of short-term calls, for the precise reason that it's usually impossible to do anything other than GUESS in these manipulated markets. However, when I do make a call, I don't equivocate.

As for Morgan's statement that you can't manipulate a "trend" (i.e. engage in long-term manipulation), he never provides anything other than his own opinion to support that idea.

I would also like to see Morgan TRY to reconcile his views that silver inventories have quadrupled over the last 5 years with his bullish prognosis that silver is going much, much higher in the near term.

In fact, IF the official inventory numbers were even semi-realistic, I would be much more cautious on my own outlook for silver. It is the depletion of inventories which is the #1 driver of the silver market - and Morgan's choice of sticking with banker-numbers for silver inventories really makes one question his expertise.

mathnerd
...
written by mathnerd, November 11, 2010
Good analogy to Wile E. Coyote Jeff.

Once again Morgan is talking out of both sides of his mouth. He said that the silver market could really get going if it broke $25 in the video to members (including me). Fine. But then, when silver got to basically $27, he sent out an email saying silver should slow down soon.

That's a hard sell to me when we're in a major short-term uptrend within the bigger bull market.
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, November 11, 2010
Yes SailorTony, some good parts to the interview, but also some stuff that turned me off.

Once again we had Morgan not only parroting the inventory numbers we get from GFMS/CPM Group, but even calling it his "own work":

"...if my work is correct and I believe it is, it is as accurate as can be and there is roughly 700 million ounces of silver in commercial bar form available."

That totally buys into the bankster myth that inventories have moved up from 200 million ounces to close to 800 million ounces - since Morgan waffles on the 700 million, and says it could be a little larger.

And then there was this:

"...it was a little bit harder to be bullish back in the summer, when you know, we were the only two people out there beating the table to buy silver."

Lol - give me a break! While they may not notice us up here in Canada, there have been plenty of other people saying "buy silver, buy silver, buy silver" for at least the last 18 months to two years.

Obviously Turk deserves a lot of credit for his $30 "call" for silver back in the spring, but seeing him and Morgan acting like they are the "vanguard" of the entire silver sector certainly doesn't make either of them look very good - especially with the rather timid views expressed about manipulation.
sailortony
...
written by sailortony, November 11, 2010
Here is the link to The Turk interview:

http://goldmoney.com/morgan-turk-silver.html

Hope it works this time...
sailortony
...
written by sailortony, November 11, 2010
Good Show again, Jeff.

Here a 6 Nov. interview between Morgan and James Turk.

Thanks to Turk it's pretty good and has some "interesting" forecast for Silver.

http://goldmoney.com/morgan-turk-silver.html

Take care

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