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Regular readers know that when I’m seeking insights into the serial U.S. economic propaganda that I often refer to the mind of the “compulsive liar”. After all, by definition all propagandists are compulsive liars. In the case of U.S. government statisticians, the “compulsion” is wanting to retain their employment.

Undoubtedly we have all met one or more compulsive liars in our own personal lives. Not only is it a common human vice, but by its very nature it is one which is always revealed  by those who possess it. The “evolution” of all compulsive liars is identical and inevitable.

It begins somewhat innocently. An individual is in some sort of personal bind and thus resorts to a lie to extricate himself/herself from that dilemma. The liar is surprised/impressed with how well the lie worked in that situation, and so begins to use this “tool” more and more frequently.

The irony of lying, however, is that the less we do it, the more effective it is; and conversely the more we do it the less effective it becomes. The dynamics are obvious. Someone who rarely/never lies enjoys high credibility as a consequence of their penchant for honesty. Thus when such people lie the lie achieves maximum success – i.e. it deceives people to the greatest degree.

On the other hand, once someone becomes a liar it is an activity which must be less and less effective. To quote the old cliché, “…you cannot fool all of the people, all of the time.” As a result, with each new lie a larger and larger percentage of the population sees through the deceit – until eventually the liar has discredited himself with the majority, and is shunned and ignored.

This evolution is such a familiar pattern within our species that it has been immortalized by one of our most famous parables: “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”. Not only does that allegory precisely mirror the behavior pattern just described, but it also reveals to us why the compulsive liar is doomed to failure. His (her) lies inevitably become less and less plausible in absolute terms.

In the parable, the boy’s lies lose credibility as a matter of probabilities. If a boy sees a wolf once but it disappears before anyone else can see it that is quite plausible. However, if that boy (or even different people) repeatedly “cry wolf” but no one except the original spotter ever sees the “wolf” then the lie becomes less and less plausible.

In the real world, which is a much more complex place than the pastoral setting of the parable, compulsive liars tend to self-destruct in a different manner: through the body of lies becoming increasingly self-contradictory – rather than merely less plausible.

Here there is no better real-life example than the U.S. labour market, and the increasingly absurd serial lies of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The supposed (net) “jobs gains” which the BLS has been reporting for over two years now are all obvious fabrications. I have explained how/why these reports are fabrications in various ways in previous commentaries, however perhaps the most straightforward way to do so is simply to look at the weekly lay-off numbers.

Historically (i.e. back in the years when the U.S. economy was strong and healthy), it has never been able to consistently generate net employment gains when weekly layoffs were at an approximate level of 400,000 (as they are today) – high by historical standards. Today, however, the U.S. economy is the opposite of “strong and healthy”.

Interest payments on the staggering levels of personal, corporate, and government debt are a gigantic millstone around the neck of the U.S. economy. The pathetic weakness of this economy which has resulted from being bled-dry with interest payments is unmistakable. Even with the Federal Reserve permanently freezing interest rates at 0% (just like Japan did twenty years ago), it has been totally unable to breathe any life into this corpse.

Yet here we have the statistical charlatans at the BLS claiming that despite the high level of layoffs, and despite the crippling levels of debt that the U.S. economy is still generating net employment gains every month. Understand the arithmetic here. In order for the U.S. to produce net jobs-gains today (while weekly layoffs are consistently averaging over 400,000/week), it would have to be producing more new jobs on a gross basis than at any other time in history.

Adding in the numbers, roughly 1.75 million Americans have been getting “pink slips” every month via these weekly layoffs,  consistently, throughout this entire pseudo-recovery. Obviously to produce positive jobs growth (month after month) the U.S. economy needs to generate more than 1.75 million new jobs that month (and every other month) – something it has never been able to do with layoffs at such high levels.

However, with the U.S. economy weaker than at any time in its entire 200+ year history, we have the liars at the BLS telling us month after month that the U.S. economy is producing more new jobs (on a gross basis) than at any other comparable period in its history. It is not remotely plausible, and on that basis alone the BLS has thoroughly discredited itself.

Now refer back to what I said earlier. Compulsive liars self-destruct because their lies start to openly contradict each other. Here we see how the serial lying of the BLS has now caught up with it.

Back in the real world, while ordinary Americans read about this mythical jobs growth month after month, they have seen that the U.S. economy continues to disintegrate. Foreclosures and the inventory of foreclosed homes remain at an all-time high. Mall vacancies have continued to rise throughout the entire “recovery”. Even local governments are going bankrupt.

Precisely how can a “consumer economy” be experiencing 2+ years of steady jobs-growth when every month more and more of its retail outlets are shutting down? Note that this comes at the same time that the U.S. government has gone from being the largest source of net jobs-growth in the U.S. economy to becoming a job-slasher itself.

Right behind the U.S. government in previously creating jobs is the U.S. construction sector – mired in its own permanent depression. So here we have the three biggest engines of job-creation in the U.S. economy: government, retail, and construction all being irreparably crippled – while each month the BLS launches into a new chorus of “jobs, jobs, jobs” Again, the contradictions here are so stark that on this basis as well the BLS has totally shredded its credibility.

Obviously the American public is becoming steadily more skeptical of this serial-lying. Proof of this can be found in the collapse over the past six months in U.S. “consumer confidence” numbers – which are now back to the same level as at the supposed “end of the recession”. When consumer confidence collapses while the sheep are being told month after month that a “U.S. economic recovery” is underway and there are supposedly steady gains in employment, we now see “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” manifested in real life.

What is the response of the BLS to this clear demonstration of suspicion/mistrust toward its numbers? As with all compulsive liars, the response has been to tell even bigger lies. And so (at last) we get to today’s most recent jobs-lies: the supposed gain of another 120,000 jobs combined with a huge plunge in the unemployment rate from 9.0% to 8.6% - one of the largest one-month declines in U.S. history.

Again we see lies contradicting lies. Those readers with a reasonably sophisticated understanding of the U.S. economy know that it needs to generate roughly 150,000 new jobs each month, just to keep up with population growth. This means that it is mathematically impossible for the 120,000 created this month to have reduced the U.S. unemployment rate, at all – let alone generating one of the largest one-month declines in history.

So how did the rate drop? There is only one mathematical possibility: large numbers of people (more than a half million) gave up looking for work, thus reducing the total percentage of those unemployed. Put another way, according to the BLS’ own numbers, the U.S. economy just experienced one of the largest one-month plunges in U.S. history in terms of people deserting the employment market.

Does it make sense that more than half a million Americans would suddenly give up looking for work in one month with the “U.S. economic recovery” now supposedly having continued for nearly three years? Does it make sense that a half million Americans would suddenly give up looking for work with supposedly more than 2 years of steady jobs-growth in the U.S., and 120,000 “new jobs” this month alone? Does it make sense that in a consumer economy that more than a half million Americans would suddenly give up looking for work – when the temporary hiring for the holiday season has supposedly just begun?

Does it make sense that more than a half million Americans would suddenly drop out of the work force when the number of Americans in the work force has already been plummeting for the last 10 years?

Does it make sense that a half million Americans would suddenly give up looking for work when wages for the average American have been steadily falling for the last 40 years?

With a lower and lower total number of Americans working, with those who do have jobs making less and less money, and with crippling debt levels requiring Americans to spend more every month just in paying interest on their debts, obviously the need for more jobs has not been this great since at least the Great Depression – and likely not even then.

Only one thing could cause a huge number of Americans to suddenly desert the labour market at this time: a sense of complete and utter hopelessness. Here we have the one contradiction of the BLS’ lies which it cannot overcome: the unmistakable rise in despair among ordinary Americans could not and would not occur in a “growing” economy which has been creating (net) “new jobs” for more than two years.

The two “pictures” portrayed here are totally irreconcilable. On the one hand, we have the behavior of Americans clearly demonstrating an economy mired in a depression. This behavioral picture is reinforced by a plethora of economic statistics showing an economy in a state of near-collapse.

On the other hand we have the statistical stalwarts at the BLS. They insist that the U.S. economy has been producing net jobs-growth for roughly 2 ½ years. Yet the moment we take a “hard look” at the BLS’ numbers we see them drowned within a sea of statistical contradictions – rendering their claims utterly absurd.

Once upon a time (back when Americans at least had access to credit if not savings), U.S. propagandists could simply tell the sheep that “an economic recovery” had begun, and then (like the well-trained Pavlov’s Dogs they had become) they would begin spending money they didn’t have – and an anemic, debt-leveraged “recovery” would become a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Those days are gone. With no savings and no access to significant amounts of new credit, merely telling the sheep that another mythical recovery has begun accomplishes nothing. Pavlov’s Dogs have run out of saliva. No matter how many times U.S. statistical liars bang the dinner-chime, nothing is going to happen.

Most compulsive liars end up appearing more pathetic than sinister. Again the reasons are obvious. At the same time that these serial deceivers are exposed as the pitiful wretches that they are once their lies are no longer believed, we see these compulsive liars in a state of total mystification – unable to comprehend why their deceptions no longer magically solve all of their problems.

They are “one-trick ponies”, and that trick no longer works.

Perhaps the worst unintended consequence of continuing to pretend that the U.S. economy is “growing” and “creating jobs” is that it negates any sense of urgency among the 500+ chair-stuffers that Americans have elected to represent them in their government. If today’s U.S. economic catastrophe was being portrayed as the “Greater Depression” that it is rather than a “jobless recovery” (which is yet another logical contradiction), then obviously these politicians could not justify their lethargy, dithering, and endless squabbling.

The Titanic is still sinking. And yet all the “boys in the band” at the BLS want to do is to play another waltz – to keep the passengers dancing so that they don’t notice their wet ankles. Hardly a viable strategy for “the world’s largest economy”.

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written by realist, December 04, 2011

bobbbny,

You make some good points. Who would have thought these things were possible in a "regulated" market?

The people in the markets today are playing at a great disadvantage. The "house edge" is getting prohibitively expensive. Even if you bet correctly, there is a risk for your capital. I don't know how any reasonable trader thinks they can profit from the rigged markets.

I'll end by saying that if someone like Gerald Celente can fall victim to the scams, what chance does an average player have?

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written by Jeff Nielson, December 04, 2011

Realist,
I've been doing a lot of thinking about MF Global, and the first question that comes to mind is "Where is John Corzine"? Why aren't 50 reporters camped out at his house, as they were for Martha Stewart, Bernie Maddoff, et al?
They don't even mention his name on television, except when Congressional subpoenas force them to. There is some big stuff going on here.

Excellent point Bobbbny.

Obviously at this point the BANKSTERS (and the servant-politicians and servant-regulators) are not yet prepared to 'throw Corzine under the bus' - like they did with Madoff.

Of course Madoff was only turned into a scapegoat YEARS after his fraud was first reported - and only once it had become so widely known that refusing to prosecute him was no longer politically feasible.

It's very likely that Corzine WILL become another Madoff - as there appears to be no way to sweep his own misconduct under the carpet.

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written by bobbbny, December 04, 2011

Realist,
I've been doing a lot of thinking about MF Global, and the first question that comes to mind is "Where is John Corzine"? Why aren't 50 reporters camped out at his house, as they were for Martha Stewart, Bernie Maddoff, et al?
They don't even mention his name on television, except when Congressional subpoenas force them to. There is some big stuff going on here.
MF cleared through JP Morgan, which gave Morgan access to see their positions. If you remember back to Amaranth Advisors in 2008, this was the exact same situation. Amaranth made a huge bet on natural gas, using a so called "calendar spread", betting on historical seasonal trends. When JP saw they were in trouble, they pounced, forcing Amaranth into losing positions. When Goldman Sachs offered to take over Amaranths positions for a $1 billion fee, JP intervened, and blocked the release of Amaranths margin capital. They did this, claiming they needed the "security", even though Goldman was going to put up even more secure capital.
JP then seized Amaranths positions, and unwound them for a $1 billion profit.
Not bad work for a criminal enterprise.
Fast forward to MF. They were heavily involved in the precious metals, and once again, JP Morgan could see their exposure.
There is no doubt that Corzine went way too far in Europe, but the whole story remains untold.
Meanwhile, back on earth, there are strange things going on.
On Monday, November 28th at 11 AM, someone bought 1 million shares of Sprott physical silver (PSLV), AT THE MARKET! (eg; no limit order on a relatively thinly traded stock).
Nobody in their right mind would do this, and the price went from below $14 to $16.50 in seconds.
There is no doubt in my mind that this was done to cover a short position, probably held at MF Global.
The only ones who could do this would be JP Morgan, to "protect themselves".
Lets assume that JP bought the stock the prior business day, and before 11 AM on the 28th. Not only could they dump it all the way to $16.50, but they could then short it back to $14, theoretically making as much as $5 million on a $14 million trade! Not that Jamie Dimon would ever do anything like that.
Some poor sucker at MF lost his ass in a rigged market.
Since commodities are covered by the CFTC, and not the SEC or the SIPC, these poor bastards who did business at MF are being skinned alive, and they can't even get access to their money.
The lesson here is a simple one, as Jeff once said to me; If you sleep with dogs, you wake up with fleas.
Buy your precious metals, and keep your precious metals where the thieves and the crooks can't get them.
Let them trade paper with each other at a ratio of 1000 to one in the silver market. That's right. 1000 paper ounces trade for each ounce of physical in the CRIMEX warehouses.
Their game will soon end, and only those who hold physical will have any value.
The rest will be staring blankly at statements showing shares of SLV & GLD, and trying to figure out exactly what happened to all their money.

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written by Jeff Nielson, December 04, 2011

What gets me is how the Main Stream Media dutifully parrots the "statistics"
put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If you want a good example of this,
you would have had to listened to the CBS Evening News. The reporter, Anthony Mason,
not only reported the "drop" in the unemployment rate, he even said that a few
previous months showed better job growth than was reported. He also crowed that
the great Black Friday sales figures indicated an improving economy.

How do you counter that? Or is it better to have CBS have this reporting
as a record of how bad their credibility will be when there finally is a significant economic
decline?

One request for you: how about an article telling about how the alleged fraud
at MF Global is going to affect the credit/derivatives market
and hence the world economy? From what I have learned about these brokerage firms,
investors are taking a risk of losing capital even if they have a winning trade.

Thanks for the comments Realist.

Unfortunately there are MANY examples of plain, simple media stupidity - where they report TOTALLY contradictory numbers month after month.

For example, every month "new home starts" will be 50% to 100% higher than "new home sales". Obviously NO business can stay in business PRODUCING double what it sells every month - especially with severely shrunken profit margins.

So EITHER the "new home starts" is a complete fabrication with no connection to the real world, or ALL U.S. homebuilders would be about to declare bankruptcy - due to MILLIONS of homes they have built but could not sell.

With the jobs numbers it should be even more obvious to media drones. Consumers are buying LESS and LESS goods every month (in the consumer economy), and the savings rate is falling.

IF there was net job creation every month, then EITHER the consumer numbers or the savings numbers would have to be RISING. Just simple arithmetic - but it's too "complex" for the media talking heads.

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written by realist, December 03, 2011

Jeff,

You certainly put a new perspective on the terrible job market and economy.
I hadn't thought about some of the contradictions you point out.

What gets me is how the Main Stream Media dutifully parrots the "statistics"
put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If you want a good example of this,
you would have had to listened to the CBS Evening News. The reporter, Anthony Mason,
not only reported the "drop" in the unemployment rate, he even said that a few
previous months showed better job growth than was reported. He also crowed that
the great Black Friday sales figures indicated an improving economy.

How do you counter that? Or is it better to have CBS have this reporting
as a record of how bad their credibility will be when there finally is a significant economic
decline?

One request for you: how about an article telling about how the alleged fraud
at MF Global is going to affect the credit/derivatives market
and hence the world economy? From what I have learned about these brokerage firms,
investors are taking a risk of losing capital even if they have a winning trade.

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written by bobbbny, December 03, 2011

They are trying to convince those who can to go out & shop one more time. They are also trying to prime the media pump for the Presidential election.
For those who can see, we know the numbers are phony, but for the vast hoard of sheeple, it may convince them to spend a little for the holiday season, since "things must be getting better".
A look at the 120,000 jobs reveals 50,000 in retail. These are temporary, holiday jobs. It also reveals 30,000 service sector jobs, eg. bartenders & waiters for the season.
Construction jobs were down 20,000. Government jobs down 20,000 as State & local governments lay off more teachers.
You are right Jeff, this crap is so phony that Joe Goebbels himself would be proud of it!
We actually need 200,000 to 250,000 jobs per month to stop the unemployment rate from rising.
Last month, 600,000 went uncounted, either because they gave up looking for a job, or their unemployment benefits ran out & thus they were no longer counted as workers.
I got it, lets only count people who have full time jobs.
Bingo, a zero unemployment rate!
Let's shop.

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written by Jeff Nielson, December 02, 2011

Thanks Earl & Mertis!

I haven't done a "reality check" on these farcical jobs reports for a while, so I figured another installment was due...

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written by Earl, December 02, 2011

Powerful commentary.

We see the vacant store fronts here in the country, and also on our trips to the city. The city is shocking, considering it is a college town with 80,000 students.


The observations in your commentary are certainly correct as far we can see.

Peace,
Thank You
Earl & Mertis

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