Gold and Silver: a Story of the Sun and the Moon
Written by Administrator Sunday, 15 February 2009 16:37
Articles & Blogs - Gold Commentary
Gold and silver are steadily gaining popularity as investments, as people in many parts of the world re-learn lessons from past millenia. . However, even most gold-bugs don't go back to the very beginning, when they discuss the history of precious metals. Much has changed since I first wrote this piece, so I'm adding onto it this time around.
"About 5,000 years ago, when our species first began extracting,collecting, and trading precious metals, our much simpler ancestors made a natural association.
Glittering gold became known as the 'metal of the Sun', while shining silver was considered the 'metal of the Moon'. For each cycle of the Sun (1 year), there are 13 cycles of the Moon. Thus was born the ORIGINAL gold/silver price ratio of 13:1.
Over those 5 millenia, the gold/silver ratio has averaged out to a little over 15:1. While that original relationship is long-forgotten, the ratio itself is alive and well - at least until recently.
Today, the current gold/silver ratio is approximately 55:1. Most precious metals analysts expect gold to go much higher from here - based on MANY solid, fundamental drivers. Even at the CURRENT price of gold, a 15:1 ratio would take silver from$16/oz to approximately $60/oz.
So, the next time someone tells you that silver (or silver miners) are "going to the moon", keep in mind that 5,000 years of history says they are right."
Note: what is remarkable is that modern science tells us that silver is 17 times more plentiful than gold in the Earth's crust, i.e. a17:1 ratio. The fact that our ancient ancestors chose a 13:1 price ratio, with a natural occurrence of 17:1 between the two metals is either a remarkable fluke, or a sign of surprising sophistication.
Today's price ratio is roughly 70:1 despite the fact that most of the silver mined throughout history is"consumed", while virtually ALL the gold ever mined still exists. I have heard several estimates of the supply ratio (of above-ground bullion) between gold and silver, and the highest number I've heard is 6:1.
So we have two metals with a natural ratio of 17:1, a historical price ratio of 15:1, an original ratio of 13:1, a supply-ratio (of actual bullion) of 6:1 (or less) - and a current price ratio of 70:1. Is it not obvious why silver bulls such as myself to expect the Metal of the Moon to greatly outperform gold in the future?
{rokintensedebate}
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