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Today
debsyl created a new topic Will Putin play the gold card? in the forums.
Although very lengthy, I found this exceptionally interesting.

Jeff, you are an economist. Do you think this would work? What would happen to gold?

If Putin plays this card and the dollar "dies', the USA has only themselves to blame for "pushing" Putin into the corner with their unrelenting sanctions.

While reading this I cam to realize some of the problems experienced by Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Italy are a direct result of the declining value of the the euro, as these are importing countries, not exporters as Germany and Poland.

As The "Sanctions War" Heats Up, Will Putin Play His 'Gold Card'?

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-20/sancti...n-play-his-gold-card

A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE CURRENCY WAR

“We’re in the midst of an international currency war. This threatens us because it takes away our competitiveness.” Brazilian Finance Minister Mantega uttered these words in September 2010, about two years after the spectacular global financial crisis of late 2008. During and following the crisis, the euro declined by around 25% versus the dollar. The pound sterling declined by nearly 30%. And while the Brazilian real also declined initially, it subsequently regained these losses in less than a year, unlike either the euro or pound. Dramatic swings in currency values can have a material impact on relative rates of economic growth. And when global economic growth is weak, the temptation to devalue and take some global market share from competitors is strong. “The advanced countries are seeking to devalue their currencies,” claimed Mantega.[1]

The decline in the value of the euro in 2008-11 was of special importance because it exposed a key fault-line across the euro-area: That between the competitive exporters of the North, such as Germany, Poland and the Czech and Slovak Republics; and the less competitive importers of the South, such as Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. With the euro weaker, the exporters’ economies were booming. Yet the fallout from the financial crisis fell hardest on the least competitive euro members, threatening the solvency of their banks and, by extension, the sustainability of their governments’ finances.

Thus there emerged a ‘civil currency war’ in the euro-area, which is still being fought at the ECB in Frankfurt and in the national capitals. The South is facing default and multiple countries have considered withdrawing from the euro, threatening the entire project. The North remains reluctant to provide bail-outs without a substantial quid-pro-quo in the form of a meaningful restructuring of the chronically uncompetitive southern economies.

Although the crisis remains unresolved to this day, various compromises were reached in 2012 that have bought an unknown amount of time. Whether that time has been used wisely is highly debatable, and one or more rounds of bail-outs and possibly another acute crisis (or multiple crises) lies ahead.

A dramatic escalation in the global currency war took place in Japan in 2012, following the election of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who campaigned on a platform of proposed radical measures to get the Japanese economy moving again. Thus he wasted no time in deploying the most obvious weapon: currency devaluation. From October 2012 to February 2013, the yen devalued by some 25%.

While this did have the result of providing some short-term stimulus, the overall effect was smaller and shorter-lived than hoped. Thus the Bank of Japan took additional measures recently to weaken the yen further. As of this writing, the yen has fallen by a further 15%. And that’s not all: Abe is now promising to halt a planned increase in sales tax and has called a snap election as a de facto referendum on his radical economic policies. Further yen weakness following this announcement suggests that the financial markets expect that Abe will prevail and follow-through accordingly.

This large cumulative yen devaluation is an attack on Japan’s competitors in the global export markets, in particular those for technologically advanced manufactured goods. Germany, Poland, South Korea, Taiwan and Brazil are in this group and no doubt the weaker yen is one reason why growth in these countries has been slowing of late.

Germany and Poland, however, now find they are fighting a three-front currency war: Versus Japan for export market share; versus the US, EU and NATO over the issue of economic sanctions against Russia; and on the continuing front within the euro-area itself, where recently both countries dissented from a recent ECB quantitative easing (QE) initiative to purchase asset-backed securities.[2] How Germany, Poland and other countries caught in the crossfire of the currency and sanctions wars react will in turn have an impact on their trading partners, and so on. The associated negative consequences for global financial markets could be substantial.



RUSSIA, NATO AND THE ‘SANCTIONS WAR’

In recent years, there has been a series of increasingly serious confrontations between US allies and Russia, beginning with the Georgian war of 2008, continuing with the Syrian crisis of 2013 and then, most recently, in Ukraine. While each of these crises has been serious in its own way, not until now have they had an overt international economic dimension. This is because the Ukraine crisis has unleashed a ‘sanctions war’ that has escalated to the point of doing real economic damage not only to Russia, but to Germany and Poland, two of Russia’s largest trading partners.

So far, the Russian economy has held up reasonably well, but recent developments suggest that a deep recession is on the way. Lower prices for oil—Russia is a huge exporter—will hit the Russian economy hard. Moreover, with the Russian currency plunging by over 30% in recent months, consumer price inflation is going to rise sharply.

So what is Russia to do? Putin is rumoured to be preparing a major programme to reduce corruption and improve economic efficiency, but even if this is successful, it is going to take time, and it can’t be expected to fully offset the effect of sanctions. Unless they are lifted soon, Russia is facing a period of economic misery.[3]

For the US and NATO, Russian economic misery is precisely what the sanctions war is all about: Cause enough pain, so the thinking goes, and Putin will allow Ukraine to crush the rebellion in the eastern part of the country and possibly re-annex the Crimea. While I am not an expert in these matters, it strikes me as highly unlikely that Putin will give in under the pressure. He is popular in Russia, not only because, up to now, he has overseen a prolonged period of strong economic growth but also because he is regarded by Russians as a strong leader standing up for Russia’s national interests. Ordinary Russians support their ethnic bretheren in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. They would be horrified if Russia allowed Ukraine to crush the rebels. Also, because of the sanctions, Russians will blame the US and NATO for the coming economic downturn, not Putin.

If I’m right that Putin stands his ground in Ukraine and remains highly popular notwithstanding the inevitable recession, then what does this imply for the currency wars generally? First, it implies that Germany, Poland, Slovakia and most other Russian trading partners are going to face a sharp economic deterioration as well. In all cases, this is going to have some political effects. In those countries with weak governments and unpopular leaders, the opposition may support ending the sanctions as an expedient way of gaining power. Indeed, in Slovakia the government has already voiced opposition to further sanctions.[4]

Second, it implies that, rather than just sit back and take the pain, Russia is going to seek to reduce its economic dependence on the West. This is already in evidence, with Putin having signed major deals in the energy and defense industries with China and India, among other countries. Stronger Russian ties with the other BRICS, or other countries for that matter, may be of some concern to the US, but in most cases there isn’t much the US can do about it.

One crucial aspect of Russia’s dependence on the West is the global use of the US dollar as the primary international transaction and reserve currency. It is thus no surprise that the recent Russian energy deal with China—involving the construction of a large gas pipeline between the two countries—is to be financed and transacted in the Chinese yuan rather than the dollar.

Not only Russia, but the BRICS in general have regularly expressed their dissatisfaction with the dollar-centric global monetary conventions, including the Bretton-Woods legacy institutions of the IMF and the World Bank.[5] Hence the BRICS have set about building their own parallel institutions and have signed a number of bilateral currency-swap deals with each other and non-BRICS trading partners in order to reduce dollar dependence. While all these initiatives nudge the BRICS and, by implication, the global economy generally, away from the dollar, the process is slow and, absent an international monetary crisis, is likely to take years.

For Russia, however, the need to shore up the economy and the currency is exigent. It cannot wait for the gradual evolution of the international monetary system to reduce the impact of sanctions. So what else might Russia do in the near-term?



A GOLDEN ROUBLE?

One intriguing possibility is one which Russia has, in fact, contemplated before: Backing the currency with Russia’s gold reserves.[6] In the late 1980s, as the Soviet Union was breaking up, the rouble was in free-fall and inflation was soaring. Russia had essentially zero access to global capital markets and relied on oil exports for hard currency with which to trade with other nations. In 1989, Premier Gorbachev invited two prominent US economists to Russia, where they met with senior economic policy officials and recommended precisely this as the best way to stabilise the rouble. One of the two was former Fed governor Wayne Angell; the other, Jude Wanniski of ‘supply-side’ economic fame. In 1998, Mr Wanniski wrote that he “became alarmed about the financial collapse in Russia,” and decided to “write a piece on how to fix Russia right away, before it was in complete chaos.” In the Wall Street Journal editorial that followed, Mr Wanniski explained the longer history of the gold-backed rouble idea:

In September 1989, the Soviet government of Mikhail Gorbachev invited me to Moscow for nine days to discuss my unorthodox views on how the U.S.S.R. could make the conversion to a market economy. I’d been arguing that the process had to begin by fixing the ruble price of gold at a credible rate of exchange, which I believed then would be a relatively easy thing to do. I still believe that.

Last week, the former U.S. vice-presidential candidate for the Republican Party, Jack Kemp, wrote a letter to President Bill Clinton. In it he urged him to ask Mr. Yeltsin and his prime-minister nominee, Viktor Chernomyrdin, to consider the gold solution as the quickest and easiest way to end the financial crisis without more suffering by the Russian people.

But gold is preferable in this situation because the Russian government could announce that it will defend the ruble in terms of gold at a rate of 2,000 rubles per ounce and because it has control of the ruble but not the foreign currencies of a currency board. That is, Russia need not have gold ingots backing every last ruble in circulation in order to keep the gold-ruble price stable. It can do so by managing the supply of ruble liquidity, which the government can do easily by buying and selling ruble interest-bearing bonds to Russian banks. It should also make an unlimited amount of the gold-ruble bonds available to ordinary people.

This is how Alexander Hamilton solved the financial crisis that faced the administration of George Washington in 1791. America’s first Treasury Secretary fixed the dollar to gold and promised creditors they would be paid all they were owed at par, with interest. In 1947, West German Finance Minister Ludwig Erhard ended a similar financial crisis by pegging the Deutsche mark to gold. At these times, neither the U.S. nor the German government had any gold. The gold promise worked because their own people understood that their governments were not insolvent, but simply faced a short-term cash crisis. In the same way, the Russian state today has small liabilities, perhaps $200 billion, compared to the assets it possesses, which easily amount to $10 trillion. The state, after all, owns almost everything in 11 time zones, which it acquired in the 1917 revolution. All of these assets can be used to back up the exchange rate by converting them at the ruble price of gold.

On hearing that their government promises to pay ruble debt at a 2,000-to-one gold price — which implies a dollar/gold rate of 7 to 1 at the moment — the Russian people would have to decide if the promise was credible. Would they rather have a gold-ruble bond paying interest at a hard rate of 7 to 1, or a ruble note paying no interest at a collapsing rate of 17 to 1? The question suggests the people would rush to convert ruble notes into ruble bonds.

As it is, the Russian people are transacting among themselves using $40 billion in U.S. currency, while the value of the ruble money supply implodes toward zero. A government gold/ruble peg would quickly bring the people to their banks with dollars, asking for the now more valuable rubles. In short order, the government would have enough dollars to pay Western banks the interest they are owed. As the Russian government creates new ruble liquidity to meet increased demand, the problems with insolvency at Russian banks also are resolved. And as domestic commerce now would flow through ruble tax gates instead of dollar barter, Mr. Yeltsin would be able to pay all back wages in tax rubles instead of fiat money. By fixing to gold instead of a currency-board basket, Russia would be able to collect a bonanza in seigniorage.

If President Clinton wished to follow through on his promise to help President Yeltsin, he could ask his Treasury department to buy $3 billion to $4 billion of the gold-ruble bonds from its Exchange Stabilization Fund. If this happened tomorrow, Russia could meet its dollar obligations this week. If there were any further doubts among Russians about the credibility of a gold ruble, they would dissolve upon seeing the U.S. government actually buying their sovereign ruble debt.

The Russian government would soon be able to hasten an economic expansion through supply-side tax reforms. But first things first. A ruble as good as gold is what Dr. Angell ordered in 1989 and it is what the doctor orders now.[7]



The situation back in 1989 or 1998 was, thus, similar to if even more serious than that faced by Russia today. But if the sanctions war escalates? Things could get worse. Is Mr Putin or his senior advisers aware of what was contemplated above? That gold could provide a workable solution to stabilise the currency and economy? A distinct possibility. How likely is it that they will make this move?

Well, let’s consider the international context. Were Russia to back the rouble with gold today, this would be a far more credible policy than it could ever have been back in 1989 or 1998, when Russia’s government was less stable and less popular, and Russia’s economy was less well-integrated with those of China, Germany and other major economies. Moreover, in recent years Russia has amassed a huge amount of gold reserves.[8] Indeed, at current market prices, Russia’s gold reserves would back a whopping 27% of the narrow rouble money supply! That is a high ratio, far in excess of any other major country and also in excess of the US Fed’s original stipulated gold coverage minimum. Moreover, Russia is a large net exporter, notwithstanding the sanctions, so Russia’s gold reserves, by implication, are likely to continue to grow, rather than decline.

This credibility is also reinforced by the Russian economy’s relatively low debt. Without a large debt to service, there is little temptation or need to inflate the currency. Indeed, Russian interest rates are currently around 10%, implying a generous relative return on rouble cash balances. Imagine the rouble were to be convertible into gold, AND rouble interest rates remained at 10%. This implies a nearly risk-free arbitrage of 10% between the rouble and gold. You can bet than a large number of international investors would quickly sell some gold, dollars, or other currencies, and acquire some roubles, pocketing the hefty interest rate differential. That would support the rouble, possibly leading to a large re-appreciation vis-à-vis the dollar and other currencies left unbacked by gold. Rouble interest rates could then decline, perhaps to quite low levels, where an equilibrium would eventually be reached. It could have worked in 1989, or 1998. It is far more likely to work today.



COULD A GOLDEN ROUBLE CATALYSE A GLOBAL REMONETISATION OF GOLD?

There is another aspect to consider, however, which is the possible impact this policy would have on the dollar and the international monetary system. Recall that, as the primary global reserve currency, the dollar circulates in vast quantities abroad, where it forms the bulk of the monetary reserves of central banks. This is in part what allows the US government and economy generally to finance themselves at such low interest rates. But other factors equal, if the dollar suddenly faces competition from a credible, gold-backed currency, it is likely that, at a minimum, central banks are likely to diversify at least some of their dollar reserves into interest-bearing, gold-backed roubles. Countries importing oil from Russia would have an additional incentive to do so as they would be able to pay for Russian oil imports in roubles and avoid sanctions. Speculators (or investors) anticipating an eventual internationalisation of the rouble would front-run these developments, pocketing a nice return over time.

The implied upward pressure on US interest rates would be perhaps small initially, but even a small rise in US interest rates would spell trouble for a US economy that is so highly leveraged to low rates. Growth would slow. The Fed could try to offset this by engaging in renewed QE, but that could add fuel to the fire, resulting in aggressive selling of dollars in the foreign exchange markets. In an extreme but hardly impossible scenario, the dollar could lose reserve status entirely, something that would be devastating for the US economy. While a sharply weaker dollar would help US competitiveness and exports over time, it would crush the dollar’s effective international purchasing power (eg for oil and other resources) and result in soaring consumer price inflation. The combined negative impact of higher interest rates on growth and rising consumer prices on inflation would make the stagflationary 1970s look like a picnic.

As I argue in my book, THE GOLDEN REVOLUTION, a loss of reserve status for the dollar would have vast repercussions for the international monetary system.[9] While a gold-backed rouble could challenge the dollar to a certain extent, it is unrealistic to think that an economy the size of Russia’s could back the dominant global reserve currency. No, as the dollar’s share declines, most probably multiple alternative currencies begin to serve as reserves. This is where things get interesting, however. Other factors equal, as a currency is used as a reserve, it strengthens that currency. That might be unwelcome in some economies heavily geared toward exports.

Thus dethroning the dollar does not end the currency wars but rather could escalate them further instead as one country after another tried to offset dollar weakness by weakening their own currencies. This sort of ‘race to the bottom’ was seen in the 1920s and 1930s, culminating in US President Roosevelt’s executive decision to devalue the dollar by some 60% in 1934. In that instance, however, the dollar remained backed by gold and by what was by far the largest global economy at that time.

Not so today. The global economy has become increasingly multipolar, with both the euro-area and China roughly as large as the US. Moreover, the US has a huge accumulated and external debt, implying a growing risk of debasement and devaluation in future. As it stands today, only 2.3% of the narrow US money supply is backed by gold. Thus the US is simply no longer in a position to be a ‘monetary hegemon’, providing the global reserve currency.

But as all large economies have their own debt or other financial issues with which to deal, no major currency is in a position to replace the dollar as the pre-eminent reserve. This implies that the global monetary system is highly unstable. The dollar is hardly the only currency at risk of debasement and devaluation. Game theory implies that a race to the bottom is distinct possibility and it is unclear whether the dollar would lead or follow in that race.

As I further argue in my book, this combination of economic multipolarity and the instability of the current global monetary equilibrium is highly likely to result in at least a partial if not full remonetisation of gold, with an associated, large rise in price. Gold is the ideal way for countries to settle their trade imbalances in a world in which trust in currency stability is lacking. Accumulating reserves that can be summarily devalued by trading partners in a currency war is not a rational policy. Yet something must function as a reserve asset if trade is to take place at all. Gold provides that ‘something’ as supply is stable and it cannot be arbitrarily devalued. Backing currencies by gold would thus greatly increase trust and, thereby, facilitate international trade.

Those familiar with the 1870s will note that there are now strong parallels with that important decade. Following German unification and the US recovery from the Civil War, both of these economies were catching up rapidly with Britain. Japan had begun to industrialise. Under these multipolar conditions arose spontaneously, absent formal diplomacy, the classical gold standard system that would underpin decades of arguably the fastest sustained global economic growth ever experienced in history.[10]



SO, WILL PUTIN PLAY THE ‘GOLD CARD’?

Let’s now return to Russia and leave aside a biased western perspective for the moment. Putin has arguably accomplished more for Russia than has any other contemporary leader of a major country. Yes, he may be something of an autocrat, but please show me one major developed country that has never been ruled by an autocrat. (The USA began its life under George III and borrowed the bulk of its legal code and political culture from the UK.) Under Putin’s leadership, Russia has maintained its territorial integrity, something that had been left in question following the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Russia retains a formidable military capable of defending its vast frontiers (although not capable of policing the world). The economy has grown rapidly and, while still resource-dependent, has begun to diversify in various ways. (Keep in mind the young USA was regarded by Europeans as a largely resource-dependent economy.) Russia has built strong economic and political ties not only with the BRICS but also many smaller economies in Eurasia and elsewhere around the world. Russia has only a small accumulated national debt, implying that this will not be a drag on future growth, as is likely to be the case in the US, EU and Japan. Russia also has an advantageous tax system, with a top 13% rate of income tax. Yes, Russia remains an economically unequal society, but we know what has happened to inequality throughout the developed economies in recent decades, not just following the 2008 global financial crisis.

Given these achievements, Putin is not a leader to be taken lightly and we should pay attention when he says it it his desire to end the ‘dictatorship of the dollar’, as he did just this week. [11] Perhaps he will indeed play the gold card he has hidden up his sleeve and thus kill two birds with one stone: shore up the rouble and Russian economy on the one hand; dethrone the dollar on the other. A period of international monetary and associated economic chaos might ensue, but with Russia suffering already under unwelcome sanctions and thus with relatively less to lose, Putin might calculate that now is the time to make his move. He may have already achieved his place in the Russian history books but imagine how he will be regarded in world history books if he sets in motion that which culminates ultimately in the return to some form of global gold standard.
08:53 PM
Jeff Nielson replied to the topic Re: Jeff Nielson, for Sprott Money: in the forums.
I've got a new "Sprott Money" piece today, and also some Sprott Money news. A new (and rather significant) outlet has picked up this piece as well.

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-20/new-federation

P.S. This piece also borrows heavily from the insights of my new "hero", Charles Lindbergh Sr...


The New Federation

www.sprottmoney.com/news/the-new-federat...on-sprott-money-news

In previous commentaries; readers have seen scoffs of derision with respect to (arguably) the two, most-important propaganda myths of the 21st century: the New Normal, and the New World Order. The gist of that criticism is that we rarely see anything truly “new” in our lives, in conceptual terms.

The declaration (through propaganda and/or disinformation) that we have two all-encompassing, new paradigms which supposedly comprise our current reality is patently ludicrous, on its surface. Context changes. Principles are immutable...
01:47 PM
Yesterday
Thanks to Sean at SGTReport for pointing me toward this!

Yet again; it makes it very clear (in case it wasn't clear enough already) that Edward Snowden was a HERO not (as the Liars claim) "a traitor". After Snowden's revelations that NSA spying was grossly excessive (not to mention illegal/unconstitutional); the Fascists have been given the chance to FIX what is obviously out-of-control "Big Brother" surveillance.

And what have they done (via the ultra-fascist Republican majority)? They have ENDORSED this Orwellian society -- and left absolutely no doubt that all this is intentional, and not merely cloak-and-dagger Bureaucrats running amok.



P.S. Note the source of this scathing editorial: the Corporate media. When even the corrupt mainstream media finds fault with our Traitor Governments, we know they have done something especially despicable.





Bill to Restrict N.S.A. Data Collection Blocked in Vote by Senate Republicans

www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/us/nsa-phone-records.html?_r=1

WASHINGTON — Senate Republicans on Tuesday blocked a sweeping overhaul of the once-secret National Security Agency program that collects records of Americans’ phone calls in bulk.

Democrats and a handful of Republicans who supported the measure failed to secure the 60 votes they needed to take up the legislation. The vote was 58 to 42 for consideration.

Senator Patrick J. Leahy, the Vermont Democrat who drafted the bill, blamed what he said was fear-mongering by the bill’s opponents for its defeat. “Fomenting fear stifles serious debate and constructive solutions,” he said. “This nation deserves more than that.”

Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, worked hard to defeat the bill, which had the support of the Obama administration and a coalition of technology companies including Apple, Google, Microsoft and Yahoo...
02:27 PM
Here (once again) is a rather long passage to characterize as a "notable quote", since it doesn't have the eye-catching brevity which we associate with most of the notable quotes in our (original) Notable Quotes section.

But the purpose with quoting this excerpt, and the purpose of most of the Lindbergh excerpts I'm presenting here is not simply to verify what I describe in my own writing today, but to demonstrate (via Lindbergh) that even 100 YEARS AGO, these criticisms were already dominant realities in our societies...



All things demonstrate what happens when we accept the kept press falsehoods for truth, believe in the adroit schemes of the wealthy and listen with open mouths to the speeches of Congressmen whose statesmanship consists of sacrificing their constituents in return for kept press support and good committee appointments, and having the privilege of naming their political chums to fat office – these in turn for telling us whom and what to vote for.

We see the national catastrophe when we measure the work of these Congressmen – some of them called “Grand Old Men.” They have served grandly and long the demands of the profiteers. The misfortunes of the people and the peril of the nation are too solemn for jest; but in spite of catastrophe the pretended wise and good Congressmen, their pompous parade for our votes and our blind following, make us look like jokes when we analyze THEIR acts and measure them by OUR votes.


P.S. Note how Lindbergh describes the slack-jawed Zombies of his own era:

[They]...listen with open mouths to the speeches of Congressmen whose statesmanship consists of sacrificing their own constituents.

01:59 PM
Jeff Nielson created a new topic Ukraine's "gold is gone" (stolen) in the forums.
This news will come as a surprise to no one here, since I have long pointed out that one of the reasons for these Fascists overthrowing the governments of (for example) Iraq, Libya, and (now) Ukraine was to steal their gold. We also know the REASON why the One Bank is so intent on stealing large quantities of gold: to (partially) re-fill its empty warehouses, in order to DELAY either a (formal) inventory default or an (informal) Decoupling in the gold market.

Phantom Gold Inventories: Has The Comex Already Defaulted?
Gold Market Secretly Decoupling
Decoupling In Precious Metals Markets
Economic Rape of Europe Nearly Complete, Part II

If there IS a "surprise" here, it's that the Fascists were sloppy enough to allow this news to slip out. (As far as I know) there has been no public acknowledgements (by their respective governments) that the gold of Iraq, Libya, and Greece is all gone/stolen. For other nations which still have large quantities of gold, even (supposed) "allies" of the U.S. (like Greece); the message here is clear: WATCH YOUR BACK.

Further indicating how desperate the One Bank is getting -- again -- is news that it's once again pressuring India's government to RE-IMPOSE tight restrictions on gold imports. This is laughable, for two reasons.

First of all; all the empirical evidence from the the FIRST time it engaged in this economic blackmail indicates that the move CAUSED more problems for the Banksters than it solved. Secondly, there is no reason to believe that (official) restrictions on Indian gold imports will do ANYTHING to slow down the (unofficial) flow of gold into that nation -- via smuggling.

How India Evaded The One Bank’s Gold-Embargo
Gold-Squeeze In India Stokes Silver Demand

There are several conclusions which we can draw from all of this:

1) The One Bank is becoming increasingly concerned/desperate with respect to the issue of inventory default in the gold market (and likely the silver market as well).
2) It has ran out of (original) schemes/ideas to delay implosion in the gold market, and now just repeats old schemes.
3) It is RUNNING OUT of gold which can/could still be stolen.

The Countdown continues...




Ukraine Admits Its Gold Is Gone: "There Is Almost No Gold Left In The Central Bank Vault"

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-18/ukraine-admits-its-gold-gone

Back in March, at a time when the IMF reported that Ukraine's official gold holdings as of the end of February, so just as the State Department-facilitated coup against former president Victor Yanukovich was concluding, amounted to 42.3 tonnes or 8% of reserves...




India readies draconian gold import rules

www.mining.com/india-readies-draconian-n...-import-rules-67511/

Long the top importer of gold, India fell behind China in 2013.

The decline in gold consumption came after bullion import duties were pushed up tenfold – from 1% at the start of 2012 to 10% – and other rules such as mandatory re-export of 20% of imports, transaction taxes and even curbs on ETF buying stymied India's gold industry.

The measures worked as intended, bringing down the country's current account deficit and shoring up the rupee. But optimism after the election of business-friendly prime minister Narendra Modi and after the government allowed certain jewellery trading houses to start importing again saw imports surge.

In October Indian jewellers and traders imported 150 tonnes from just 25 tonnes this time last year worth reports Reuters:

"We are working on it. The measures to slow gold imports are almost ready and may be announced today or tomorrow," said the source, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Officials from the finance ministry and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) were considering whether to reimpose import restrictions on "star trading houses" that were eased earlier this year, the source said.

The new measure could be imposing new restrictions on these trading houses, tightening the import-export ratio to 70:30 or even 60:40, and raising the import duties again, but making the rules too draconian only encourages increased smuggling...
11:57 AM
5 days ago
Jeff Nielson created a new topic Israeli editorial: defending GENOCIDE in the forums.
This is actually a somewhat older piece from SCGnews.com (from August), but something so shocking/heinous that it's still worth covering

It's certainly possible that some readers/Members may find my characterization of Israel's political/military policies as "slow genocide" to be hyperbolic. However, those people may want to re-think their position after reading this article (from an Israel newspaper) "explaining" how/when/why genocide is NECESSARY, titled...

When Genocide Is PERMISSIBLE

Naturally this culture of Murderers wouldn't come right out and advocate the slaughter of the last, few million Palestinians. Rather, they frame this plotted, mass crime-against-humanity rhetorically:

I will conclude with a question for all the humanitarians out there. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clearly stated at the outset of this incursion that his objective is to restore a sustainable quiet for the citizens of Israel. We have already established that it is the responsibility of every government to ensure the safety and security of its people. If political leaders and military experts determine that the only way to achieve its goal of sustaining quiet is through genocide is it then permissible to achieve those responsible goals?

All of those well-respected Terrorists who comprise Israel's apartheid regime don't want people to think (know) that they WANT to perpetrate genocide against the captive, defenseless Palestinian population. Rather, these demented Psychopaths want to frame their crime-against-humanity as being something they are "forced to do".



The Slow-Genocide will continue...


Times of Israel Article: "When Genocide is Permissible" - Just a Little Too Honest

scgnews.com/times-of-israel-article-when...-a-little-too-honest

On August 1st, 2014, The Times of Israel posted one of their most honest articles to date. In it, the author openly made the case that in certain circumstances genocide may not only be permissible, but in fact a necessary component of government policy...
09:28 AM
Thanks for the post, TA.

This is even MORE disturbing than the other "globalization" trade pacts which have come before this. This becomes immediately apparent when we view what is the reported AGENDA of this so-called "trade agreement".

The following list of issues addressed by this treaty is from a Malaysian news source...

• domestic court decisions and international legal standards (e.g., overriding domestic laws on both trade and nontrade matters, foreign investors’ right to sue governments in international tribunals that would overrule the national sovereignty)

• environmental regulations (e.g., nuclear energy, pollution, sustainability)

• financial deregulation (e.g., more power and privileges to the bankers and financiers)

• food safety (e.g., lowering food self-sufficiency, prohibition of mandatory labeling of genetically modified products, or bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) or mad cow disease)

• Government procurement (e.g., no more buy locally produced/grown)

• Internet freedom (e.g., monitoring and policing user activity)

• labour (e.g., welfare regulation, workplace safety, relocating domestic jobs abroad)

• patent protection, copyrights (e.g., decrease access to affordable medicine)

• public access to essential services may be restricted due to investment rules (e.g., water, electricity, and gas)


Now (on the one hand) if we could actually TRUST our Traitor Governments to negotiate for our benefit rather than for our enslavement, this is the only way to draw-up a proper "free trade" agreement. We must harmonize our economies so that we are all playing on a level field.

However, having DECADES of proof that our Traitor Governments do nothing but conspire against us (and for the Banksters they serve); we know in advance that any "comprehensive" treaty of this nature would be solely for the purpose of completing the destruction of our societies -- and not elevating the societies of less-advanced cultures.

This is GLOBAL FEUDALISM, plain and simple -- turning our planet into a hovel for 7 billion Serfs...and a paradise for a few thousand (hundred?) Oligarchs.
09:11 AM
Jeff Nielson replied to the topic Re: The Missing Verse in the forums.
Dylan wrote:


"Universal Soldier"


He's five foot-two, and he's six feet-four,
He fights with missiles and with spears.
He's all of thirty-one, and he's only seventeen,
Been a soldier for a thousand years.

He'a a Catholic, a Hindu, an Atheist, a Jain,
A Buddhist and a Baptist and a Jew.
And he knows he shouldn't kill,
And he knows he always will,
Kill you for me my friend and me for you.

And he's fighting for Canada,
He's fighting for France,
He's fighting for the USA,
And he's fighting for the Russians,
And he's fighting for Japan,
And he thinks we'll put an end to war this way.

And he's fighting for Democracy,
He's fighting for the Reds,
He says it's for the peace of all.
He's the one who must decide,
Who's to live and who's to die,
And he never sees the writing on the wall.

But without him,
How would Hitler have condemned them at Dachau?
Without him Caesar would have stood alone,
He's the one who gives his body
As a weapon of the war,
And without him all this killing can't go on.

He's the Universal Soldier and he really is to blame,
His orders come from far away no more,
They come from here and there and you and me,
And brothers can't you see,
This is not the way we put the end to war.



Definitely some classic verse there, Dylan. One of the unfortunate consequences of the loss of our prosperity is the devolution of "the arts", and music, in particular.

There simply AREN'T any Neil Youngs or Bonos or Dylans or other NEW minstrel/poets who are able to put the outrages of our era to music -- and thus alert (some of) the masses.
09:04 AM
6 days ago
...and one last quote for today. Lindbergh on the Two-Party Dictatorship, which was already a reality in the United States in 1923.


There is no material difference now in the old political parties, except which shall control patronage.
01:41 PM
Jeff Nielson created a new topic Charles Lindbergh's Notable Quotes in the forums.
As I suggested I might do; I have decided that Republican Congressman, Charles Lindbergh Sr. (1859 - 1924) deserves his own "notable quotes" section, for several reasons:

1) He has a superb comprehension of economic dynamics.
2) He has a passion for social and economic justice.
3) He is very clear/eloquent in expressing these dynamics and injustices.
4) As someone who died nearly a century ago; the views he expresses are eerily/explicitly PROPHETIC of what we now see very clearly in our own era.

One year before he died; he published The Economic Pinch (aka "Lindbergh on the Federal Reserve"). It is a brilliant and precise description of everything that is wrong with our economies today, why it is wrong, and how we can reclaim the wealth/prosperity which WE, THE PEOPLE produce but "the Profiteers" now (endlessly) steal from us.

As you see Lindbergh describe in extensive detail the evils of our current economic oppression (and the Oppressors who created this economic yoke); never forget that everything you read here was written nearly 100 years ago. For those not (previously) familiar with the name "Charles Lindbergh" (except for his son, the much-hyped aviator); Lindbergh Sr. is attributed with being the source for The Bankers' Manifesto of 1892.

The Bankers’ Manifesto of 1892

Most of the following quotes will be taken fro The Economic Pinch, but there will be some quotes taken from his earlier speeches/observations, since (fortunately) he was extensively quoted in his own era.
11:40 AM
I meant to post this yesterday, but after replying to other discussions I forgot to do so. There are two points to note here.

First of all; when Russia buys gold aggressively, this not only increases its own economic power, it really annoys the banksters -- Russia's real enemy. So it's a policy which provides a lot of bang-for-the-ruble. The second point to note here is that Russia is also a major producer of gold.

So (like China) we must suspect that little if any of its domestically mined gold ever leaves the country. And thus (like China) we must suspect that Russia's actual gold reserves are considerably higher than what it officially declares.

For those not aware of this point, let me make it one more time. When nations add to their gold reserves from a domestic source (any domestic source); they are not required to officially report such transactions, and thus not required to DECLARE any gold they have added from domestic sources. Conversely, all gold purchased in international markets must be reported in a timely manner.

Russia's "official" gold reserves are about 1,000 tonnes. But it could easily have double that amount, depending on when it began to add gold from domestic sources. In the case of China, it's much easier to see when their "gold rush" began, because in 2004 China suddenly/radically began ramping-up its gold production.

This is all just an extension of the Golden Rule:

He who has the gold makes the rules.



P.S. Note the next biggest buyers of gold: former satellite states of the Soviet Union, who still have close ties to Moscow.


Putin stockpiles gold as Russia prepares for economic war

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/...or-economic-war.html

Russia's central bank added to its reserves of bullion in the third quarter, according to the latest report from the World Gold Council

Russia has taken advantage of lower gold prices to pack the vaults of its central bank with bullion as it prepares for the possibility of a long, drawn-out economic war with the West.

The latest research from the World Gold Council reveals that the Kremlin snapped up 55 tonnes of the precious metal - far more than any other nation - in the three months to the end of September as prices began to weaken.

Vladimir Putin's government is understood to be hoarding vast quantities of gold, having tripled stocks to around 1,150 tonnes in the last decade. These reserves could provide the Kremlin with vital firepower to try and offset the sharp declines in the rouble.

Russia's currency has come under intense pressure since US and European sanctions and falling oil prices started to hurt the economy. Revenues from the sale of oil and gas account for about 45pc of the Russian government's budget receipts.

The biggest buyers of gold after Russia are other countries from the Commonwealth of Independent States, led by Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan...
11:11 AM
1 week ago
Dylan wrote:


According to the information coming out from Sierra Leone, around 500 Ebola patients are now recovering from treatment with nano-silver.
When you consider that in the last 7 months or so there have been around 1700 cases of Ebola and 900 deaths in the whole of W.Africa with a population of 250 million.
It is certainly not a pandemic at present and if nano-silver takes off it isn`t ever likely to be.


Those are the numbers? Lol!

Certainly this indicates that the Ebola scare is being exaggerated by the Western media. It also further increases suspicions about the U.S. cases.

Foreign health-care providers have been on the scene for previous Ebola outbreaks. There were never any occurrences of the disease after they had returned home (and with ridiculously lax quarantine procedures on top of it).
Nov 13
Thomas Aquinas wrote:
www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-12/economic-end-game-explained

TA, I was wildly enthusiastic about some parts of this article, so I'll post that excerpt first:

[After quoting all the pseudo-experts who laughed at the possibility of a "crash" in 1929)

[quote]I hear nearly identical statements from pro-mainstream, pro-dollar skeptics all the time. And all of their assertions rest solely on the illusion of the Dow and the dollar index, not to mention statistics that are sourced from the very government that has much to gain by fooling the public into believing all is well.

In 2009, Paul Krugman, perhaps the worst and most famous economist of our age, lamented on the fact that no one in mainstream finance saw the derivatives and credit crash coming. Yet it is the same kinds of manipulative policies that Krugman champions that caused this collective ignorance in mainstream circles to begin with.

What the past proves, time and time again, is that establishment trained and educated economists are perhaps the most useless of all analysts. They are perpetually wrong. Only independent analysts have ever been able to predict anything of value as far as our economic future — not because they are psychic, but because they have the advantage of standing outside the foggy propaganda of brainwashed financial academia.

It also proves that the appearance of prosperity means nothing if the fundamentals do not support the optimism. That is to say, a bullish stock market, a high dollar index and a low unemployment percentage mean nothing if such stats are generated by false methods and fiat. The fundamentals ALWAYS matter. As we saw during the Great Depression, the markets cannot hide from reality forever.[/quote]

This is all bang-on, especially the middle paragraph. However, after that (in my opinion) this analyst goes astray:

The plan is to introduce a basket currency system as an alternative to the dollar as world reserve, then slowly but surely phase out all sovereign currencies until the basket becomes a currency itself - the ONLY currency. Former World Bank Chief Economist Justin Yifu Lin seems to agree with this ideology, arguing that national currencies must be replaced with a supranational currency, and pointing out that no single currency has the strength to stand alone as world reserve...

Yes, Western banksters would very much like to cobble together another, totally fraudulent "currency" to replace their worthless/debauched Western currencies -- and call it "reserve currency". The problem is that China (and the Rest of the World) won't allow this.

Now some might argue that it's me who is "reading the tea leaves" incorrectly here. However, because I was interested in what this guy had to say, I did some more reading -- another one of his commentaries which was linked to in this one.

And this is what I found:

With the end of the Federal Reserve taper now complete, and questions circling as to when interest rates will be raised, a market volatility not seen since 2008-2009 is returning.

This is all, entirely delusional.

1) There has been no "tapering". Every dollar which the Fed Liars have pretended to "taper" they have replaced with counterfeiting.

Federal Reserve Increases Counterfeiting
Debunking Tapering Mythology

2) Western governments (and their central bank Masters) can/will NEVER "raise interest rates", because doing so would quickly bankrupt all these Deadbeat regimes with higher interest payments.

Thus we have yet another commentator with good reasoning skills, and a good grasp of economic fundamentals, and even a partial knowledge of all the scams/lies/frauds taking place. But because he still lives inside the Wonderland Matrix, what he says is basically worthless -- because it's almost impossible to tell where the "sound analysis" ends and the delusions begin.

There was another excerpt (which I can't find at the moment) where he referred to Western bond markets as being legitimate -- and even talked about these worthless bonds (already priced at the highest levels in history) "increasing in value".



When viewing the thoughts of (especially) commentators in the Alternative Media we can never allow ourselves to be "cheerleaders". What I mean by that is we must ALWAYS begin with our focus on the parts of an analysis which are weak/flawed. It is only if we fail to find such flaws/weaknesses, or we are able to dismiss the flaws/weaknesses as "minor" that we can extract any value from the good parts of these analyses.

Conversely, with any/every commentary which does contain some major flaw (even only one), this generally invalidates the ENTIRE piece.
Nov 13
Jeff Nielson replied to the topic Re: ISIS Unveils Its New Gold-Backed Currency in the forums.
Good post Debsyl!

And I understand your sentiments entirely: the "Enemy of my Enemy" is not necessarily my friend. We can applaud another move to undermine the USD (and the One Bank's whole, fraudulent system) without applauding the entity which is engaging in this move. It's very similar to how I commend the actions of China (frequently), then add the caveat that China's government only appears "benign" when stacked against our own traitorous, wholly corrupt regimes.



I also agree with you that this is one possible "reason" why the U.S. has stopped supporting/funding/arming ISIS, and made it the new Boogeyman. However, I would suggest different causality.

As pointed out in the wonderfully documented clip at SCGNews.com; creating nasty "terrorist" entities, and then demonizing/attacking them is one of the oldest "plays" in the U.S. Playbook. Thus ISIS didn't need to engage in any provocative move in order to become the new Boogeyman -- it was always "in the cards".

Rather, I see as much more likely that this is a REACTION by ISIS to the betrayal by their (former) Benefactor -- the U.S. government. How do you strike back at these back-stabbers, when you (obviously) can't confront them militarily? By an economic attack.

Obvioiusly ISIS knows (as well as anyone) that Gaddhafi's plan (in Libya) to create a "gold-backed African currency" is what got him killed -- as being the proverbial "stake through the heart" of this Vampire. Obviously nothing they can do (really do) can make them more of an Enemy, so why not do what they can to strike back at the U.S.??

Nov 13
Jeff Nielson replied to the topic Re: The death of money on November 16, 2014? in the forums.
Desyl, I found this piece very interesting and well-reasoned. The writer engages in all of the necessary steps here to produce a sound analysis.

a) Definition of terms
b) Provides detailed information/evidence
c) Lays out the premises in support of his conclusion methodically and EXPLICITLY.

The advantage of seeing a properly constructed argument is that we have all the information necessary to accept or reject the conclusion. The methodology for doing so is always the same. Are there are missing premises (i.e. assumptions)? Is any premise faulty in one way or another?

When I look at the argument; I answer "no" to both of those questions. Now let's focus on the conclusion/title: "the death of money". When we look through the context of the argument (carefully); what we see the writer pointing is not how/why the UK currency MUST "die" on November 16th, but how/why it can die on that date (or any day afterward).

People here have read similar, previous commentaries from myself, where I construct very similar arguments about the "death" of Western currencies in general, and the USD in particular. Indeed, after doing my post about the currency-swap between China and Canada; I immediately penned a title for a (near) future commentary: "Death of the Dollar". Lol!

And recall that the UK government has already announced that it is starting to denominate its own bonds in RENMINBI. As I pointed out when I did a commentary on that blockbuster announcement; this essentially is an acknowledgment by the UK government that the renminbi is superior to its own currency.

I also found his hypothetical of people (literally) "storing their money" in a warehouse versus keeping it in a bank to be delightful. The arithmetic and logic in that hypothetical is impeccable. Obviously with the Thieves CHARGING PEOPLE in order to hold their deposits in banks, NO ONE should hold any money in these banks.

That doesn't mean that all this will happen. If the Zombies behaved logically (lol!!!); our world would look much, much different today. All that is being pointed out here is the legal ramifications of this new UK declaration, AND what the logical consequences of this announcement should be.

Good stuff!

Nov 13
Jeff Nielson replied to the topic Re: Notable Quotes... in the forums.
Thomas Aquinas wrote:
Thanks Jeff.


Well as you know I'm a Catholic. Here are some interesting ones to note:

Prophecy of St Nilus (see link)

www.traditioninaction.org/Questions/B249_StNilus.html



Bishop George Michael Wittman (d. 1833)


"Woe is me! Sad days are at hand for the Holy Church of Jesus Christ. The Passion of Jesus will be renewed in the most dolorous manner in the Church and in her Supreme Head. In all parts of the world there will be wars and revolutions, and much blood will be spilled. Distress, disasters, and poverty will everywhere be great, since pestilential maladies, scarcity, and other misfortunes will follow one another.
"Violent hands will be laid on the Supreme Head of the Catholic Church; bishops and priests will be persecuted, and schisms will be provoked, and confusion reign amid all classes. Times will come, so pre-eminently bad, that it will seem as if the enemies of Christ and of His Holy Church, which He founded with His blood, were about to triumph over her. But the priesthood will remain firm and resolute, and good people will adhere faithfully to that body. A general separation will be made. The wheat shall be winnowed, and the floor swept. SECRET SOCIETIES WILL WORK GREAT RUIN AND EXERCISE A MARVELOUS MONETARY POWER, and through that many will be blinded, and infected with most horrible errors; however, all this shall avail naught. Christ says, He who is not with Me is against Me, and he who gathereth not with Me, scattereth. Scandals will be but too rife, and woe to those by whom they come! Although the tempests will be terrible, and will turn many in their passage, nevertheless they cannot shake the rock whereon Christ has founded His Church: "Portae inferi non prevalebunt."
"The faithful sheep will gather together, and in unions of prayer will offer potent resistance to the enemies of the Catholic Church. Yes, yes, the flock will become small. A marvelous thing will occur, but then hell will rise in opposition against it, and terrible agitation will ensue. Great confusion will reign amid princes and nations. The incredulity of the present day is preparing those horrid evils."


Sr Jeanne le Royer 1798


"Woe ! Woe ! Woe to the last century !
Here is what God wanted to show me in his Light. I began looking in the light of God, the century which must begin in 1800; I saw by this light that judgement wasn't there, and that it wouldn't be the last century. I considered, thanks to the same light, the century of 1900, until the end, to see positively if it would be the last. Our Lord made me know, and at the same time made me doubt, if it would be at the end of the century of 1900, or in that of 2000. But what I saw, it is that if the judgment arrived in the century of 1900, it would come only towards the end, and that if the world exceeds this century, the first two decades of the century of 2000 will not pass without the judgment intervening, as I saw it in the light of God."

(Vie et Révélations de Sœur de la Nativité, Charles Genet, book IV, pp. 125-126)

Sister Madeleine Pourcain who died a Poor Clare in 1843 foresaw "Confusion, Confusion, even among the priests".
Sister Madeleine also foresaw a "commercial crisis which would see the whole world bankrupt"

Seemingly not long to wait to verify!



Let me make one thing clear to everyone here, although I think I've made this admission before. I'm a very superstitious guy, myself (lol!). While I'm not "religious" in the classical sense; I fully believe there are (unseen) "powerful forces" at work in the Universe.

Where I have problems embracing any religion is that if there is a "God" (more than one?); I simply find it impossible to believe that he/she/it is a benevolent Being. Could there be an organism(s) in the Universe so much more advanced than us as to appear to be a diety? It's certainly possible. I just see no evidence that it (they?) is our Friend.

So I watch/listen carefully any time I see genuine efforts at prophesy. And the only time I simply dismiss it without consideration is when I see some of the buzzwords (or other calling-cards) indicating that the material is disinformation -- and thus not sincere.

Now with respect to "Judgment Day", again I have a problem. If such a concept exists, the parallel is obvious. It's like a parent who (deliberately/neglectfully) leaves his/her children unsupervised for a very long time, and then upon returning gives some/most (all?) of them the Mother of All Spankings. Lol!

Who is really at fault in that scenario? The parent(s). Any being(s) who (through its own arrogance) could fail to see the Truth of that scenario could not/cannot possibly be a (real) God. We eliminate "corporal punishment" with respect to our own children, while our "God" hands out Eternal Damnation (without hesitation) to his/her own Children???

Who is the "superior being"???

Nov 13
Jeff Nielson created a new topic China completes "currency swap" with CANADA in the forums.
This is another BIG step in the demise of the Dollar. Readers/Members will recall the previous "big step" I reported on previously: the UK government has started issuing its own bonds denominated in renminbi -- not pounds or dollars.

You should also be familiar with many previous reports (and commentaries) detailing China's "currency swaps" with many other nations. These currency-swaps are where China trades its own renminbi for USD instruments held by another nation.

The other nation then uses those new renminbi to conduct (some of) its own trade, while China has "drained the swamp" (i.e. the global economy) of more worthless/unwanted dollars. At the same time; each time China completes a currency-swap it adds to its own DOLLAR HOARD, which (as I've previously pointed out) is a powerful economic shield/insurance policy to protect it against U.S. economic terrorism.

Previously, these currency-swaps have all been with Asian neighbours or non-aligned natiions from the Rest of the World. But now it has completed a currency-swap with Canada. As we know Stephen "the Lap Dog" Harper won't blow his nose without first asking permission from his (our) American Masters.

And the U.S. government won't blow its own nose without first asking for permission from the One Bank. Thus we see the Banksters (once again) showing that they see no alternative to the Death of the Dollar, and so they, themselves, have begun to jump on the renminbi bandwagon.

With the One Bank being essentially the only force in our world which prevents positive reform/change, with the One Bank itself now cooperating in the demise of the dollar; it's Death is now carved in stone.




Petrodollar Panic? China Signs Currency Swap Deal With Qatar & Canada

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-10/petrod...ap-deal-qatar-canada

The march of global de-dollarization continues. In the last few days, China has signed direct currency agreements with Canada becoming North America's first offshore RMB hub, which CBC reports analysts suggest "could double maybe even triple the level of Canadian trade between Canada and China," impacting the need for Dollars.But that is not the week's biggest Petrodollar precariousness news, as The Examiner reports, a new chink in the petrodollar system was forged as China signed an agreement with Qatar to begin direct currency swaps between the two nations using the Yuan, and establishing the foundation for new direct trade with the OPEC nation in the very heart of the petrodollar system. As Simon Black warns, "It’s happening... with increasing speed and frequency."...
Nov 13
debsyl created a new topic ISIS Unveils Its New Gold-Backed Currency in the forums.
I expect the USA was aware of this plan long ago and perhaps this is ONE of the reasons that the USA would like to eliminate ISIS. Please don't take this as my endorsement of ISIS. The atrocities they commit are unthinkable; however, we have already discussed this on another thread.

ISIS Unveils Its New Gold-Backed Currency To Remove Itself From "The Oppressors' Money System"

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-13/isis-u...ressors-money-system

It appears the rumors are true. Islamic State is set to become the only 'state' to back its currency with gold (silver and copper) as it unveils the new coins that will be used in an attempt to solidify its makeshift caliphate. ISIS says the new currency will take the group out of "the oppressors' money system."

As Zaid Benjamin notes, ISIS releases details of its new currancy with golden 1 & 5 dinar, silver 1, 5, 10 dirham and copper 10 & 20 fils

www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/im...11/20141113_isis.jpg

It seems Alan Greenspan may have been on to something after all...

"Remember
what we're looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all
evidence, a premier currency. No fiat currency, including the dollar,
can match it."

twitter.com/zaidbenjamin/status/532916905322250240/photo/1

Of course this will mean more physical demand - along with Russia and China - and so more price suppression by the West.
Nov 13
debsyl created a new topic The death of money on November 16, 2014? in the forums.
I noticed this article on ZeroHedge; I am not sure whta to think of it.

Russell Napier Declares November 16, 2014 The Day Money Dies

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-12/russel...-2014-day-money-dies

From Russell Napier of ERIC

It is with regret and sadness we announce the death of money on November 16th 2014 in Brisbane, Australia

‘A mark, a yen, a buck, or a pound
A buck or a pound
A buck or a pound
Is all that makes the world go 'round;
That clinking, clanking sound
Can make the world go 'round.’

“Money” from Cabaret by Kander & Ebb

In the musical Cabaret, Sally Bowles and the Emcee sing about money from the perspective of those witnessing its collapse in value in real terms in the great German hyperinflation of 1923.

Less than a decade later, and a continent away, a young lawyer from Youngstown, Ohio noted on July 25th 1932 how money’s value could also fall in nominal terms:

"A considerable traffic has grown up in Youngstown in purchase and sale at a discount of Pass-Books on the Dollar Bank, City Trust and Home Savings Banks. Prices vary from 60% to 70% cash. All of these banks are now open but are not paying out funds."

The Great Depression - A Diary: Benjamin Roth (first published 2009)

In Youngstown the bank deposit, an asset previously referred to as "money", had fallen by up to 40% relative to the value of cash. The G20 announcement in Brisbane on November 16th will formalize a "bail in" for large-scale depositors raising the spectre that their deposits are, as many were in 1932, worth less than banknotes. It will be very clear that the value of bank deposits can fall in nominal terms.

On Sunday in Brisbane the G20 will announce that bank deposits are just part of commercial banks’ capital structure, and also that they are far from the most senior portion of that structure. With deposits then subjected to a decline in nominal value following a bank failure, it is self-evident that a bank deposit is no longer money in the way a banknote is. If a banknote cannot be subjected to a decline in nominal value, we need to ask whether banknotes can act as a superior store of value than bank deposits? If that is the case, will some investors prefer banknotes to bank deposits as a form of savings? Such a change in preference is known as a "bank run."

Each country will introduce its own legislation to effect the ‘ bail-in’ agreed by the G20 this coming weekend. The consultation document from the UK’s Treasury lists the following bank creditors who will rank ABOVE depositors in a ‘failing’ financial institution:

Liabilities representing protected deposits (in the UK the government guarantee protects 100% of deposits up to the value of GBP85,000)
any liability, so far as it is secured
Liabilities that the bank has by virtue of holding client assets
Liabilities arising with an original maturity of less than 7 days owed by the banks to a credit institution or investment firm
Liabilities arising from participation in designated settlement systems
Liabilities owed to central counterparties recognized by the European Securities and Markets Authorities… on OTC derivatives, central counterparties and trade depositaries
Liabilities owed to an employee or former employee in relation to salary or other remuneration, except variable remuneration
Liabilities owed to an employee or former employee in relation to rights under a pension scheme, except rights to discretionary benefits
Liabilities owed to creditors arising from the provision to the bank of goods or service (other than financial services) that are critical to the daily functioning of its operations

The above list makes it clear that deposits larger than GBP85,000 will rank ahead of the bond holders of banks, but they will rank above little else. Importantly, both borrowings of the banks of less than 7 days maturity from other financial institutions and sums owed by banks in their role as counterparties to OTC derivatives will rank above large deposits.

Large deposits at banks are no longer money, as this legislation will formally push them down through the capital structure to a position of material capital risk in any "failing" institution. In our last financial crisis, deposits were de facto guaranteed by the state, but from November 16th holders of large-scale deposits will be, both de facto and de jure, just another creditor squabbling over their share of the assets of a failed bank.

Interestingly, HM Treasury uses the word ‘failing’ rather than "failed" in its consultation document and investors could find their large deposits frozen for a prolonged period in any "failing" institution while the courts unpick the capital structure and decide exactly where any losses should fall.

If we have another Lehman Brothers collapse, large-scale depositors could find themselves in the courts for years before final adjudication on the scale of their losses could be established. During this period would this illiquid asset, formerly called a deposit and now subject to an unknown capital loss, be considered money? Clearly it would not, as its illiquidity and likely decline in nominal value would make it unacceptable as a medium of exchange.

From November 16th 2014 the large-scale deposit at a commercial bank is, at best, a lesser form of money, and to many it will cease to be money at all as its nominal value can fall and it could cease to be accepted as a medium of exchange.

Fortunately, the developed world’s commercial banks are flush with central bank reserves and these are instantly convertible into the banknotes which they may need to meet demand from depositors. While the huge level of reserves on the balance sheet is a buffer, the funding of fractional reserve banks is still very negatively impacted by a shift from deposits to bank notes. With deflationary forces gathering momentum, this further impediment to the extension of commercial bank credit would be another factor preventing central bank monetary largesse translating into growth and inflation.

As the world’s smartest lawyer Charlie Munger is fond of saying, "Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome." Some simple mathematics reveals that the November 16th announcement will create a very major incentive for investors to change deposits into banknotes.

Consider that the standard pallet measures 1 metre by 1.2 metres and will take 84 piles of Euro 500 banknotes. The UK’s Health and Safety Executive recommends that the height of a pallet should not exceed the widest side of its base. A 1.2 metre high pile of banknotes contains 11,000 notes and thus each pallet can safely hold 84 piles of 11,000 banknotes. A pallet of safely stacked 924,000 Euro 500 banknotes is therefore worth Euro462m.

There is a small warehouse for rent near Newry, at the foot of the Mourne Mountains in Northern Ireland. Given its dimensions (16.5m x 9.0m x 5.6m) one could stack 468 pallets of 500 Euro notes representing Euro 216bn. At the current bank deposit rate of minus 50bp per annum, the cost of carry to have Euro 216bn on deposit with a commercial bank would be Euro 1,081m. The annual cost of the warehousing space is around Euro 7,000!

Now clearly this warehouse will need significant private security, but in Northern Ireland there is an over supply of such security due to a structural change in market conditions, and prices are reasonable. Anyway, just how much security could you afford if you charged clients 20bp to hold their Euro 216bn, and generated an annual fee of Euro432 million, with an annual saving to your clients of about Euro 648 million?

This represents both a yield improvement and a significant improvement in capital risk compared to bank deposits, as bank notes cannot be "bailed in." There is therefore an annual profit of around Euro432 million for the manager with a warehouse and friends in low places. Anyone for the "Mourne Or Newry Enhanced Yield Banknote Actively Guarded Security", or MONEY BAGS for short?

As ever, there is a first-mover advantage. There are only about 600 million 500 Euro notes available, though sizeable arbitrage profits still exist on warehouses full of 200 Euro notes. As the function of such warehouses is focused on the role of money as a store of value, a role no longer fulfilled by the large-scale deposit, one should expect a premium to develop, and potentially a secondary market in note-filled, well-protected warehouses. For warehouses full of German Euro notes --- those are the ones with a serial number beginning in X --- a particularly high premium may arise due to risks of a future Euro break-up.

Irish legend tells of an X at the end of the rainbow marking the position of a pot of gold. In our post- Brisbane world, investors may be content to find just a bundle of paper marked with an X.

Oh, Mary, this London's a wonderful sight
With people here working by day and by night.
They don't sow potatoes nor barley nor wheat,
But there's gangs of them diggin' for gold in the street



At least when I asked them, that's what I was told,
So I just took a hand at this diggin' for gold,
But for all that I've found there, I might as well be
In the place where the dark Mourne sweeps down to
the sea.’

Percy French 1854-1920
Nov 13
Thomas Aquinas wrote:
Thanks for your comments Jeff.

Another dimension to throw into the mix is the theological.

Concomitant with the massive steal of the world's wealth as you identify, is an effort to destroy religion...



Matthew 7:15

"Beware of false prophets, who come to you in the clothing of sheep, but inwardly they are ravening wolves."

Forgive if I have strayed outside permissable bounds here Jeff, but there is clearly something contiguous between the money power and "dark religion". The macabre activities at Bohemian Grove also testify of this.


TA, I edited-out the middle of what you posted in my reply, because the parts that "resonated" with me were the beginning and the end.



Is the Old World Order seeking to "destroy religion", as it pillages all of the world's wealth? My answer would be a qualified "yes".

Yes, I think the Psychopaths (in general terms) are seeking to undermine each-and-every social institution we have, to destroy "community", and to undermine our personal connections/bonds. Here the obvious example is their relentless campaign to destroy/undermine "the family unit".

"Feminism" was a creation of the Oligarchs, and it had two purposes:

1) Create a divide-and-conquer wedge between the two genders, to make them (at least somewhat) more antagonistic toward each other.
2) CONSCRIPT women into the workplace. This had two purposes. Further weaken the family unit (by denying children a full-time parent), and HIDING the collapse in our standard of living -- as two spouses replaced the "one income" Middle Class family unit.

But the only religion openly "targeted for destruction" is Islam, because Islam (alone among major religions) institutionalizes "sharing the wealth" -- the three-word phrase which enrages the Psychopaths more than any other word/phrase in the English language. Their "Crusade" is now over 1,000 years long (and counting).

With respect to other religions; their modus operandi is similar to their modus operandi in most of what they do: infiltrate-and-corrupt. The Catholic Church (in particular) has been used as a tool of oppression at various times.

Obviously even these Oligarchs cannot "corrupt a religion". But they can corrupt people; what they've done to our governments (and so-called "regulators") speaks for itself. And not all their Puppets began their careers with corruption in their minds.

To believe that our political leaders can be corrupted but our religious leaders are (somehow) immune is (in my opinion, at least) a naive perspective. With the Psychopaths themselves being WHITE and xenophobic; I would strongly suspect that they would much prefer seeking to use-and-corrupt the religions favored by 'their own people'.

This brings me to the last part of what I quoted.

By the very nature of their "Faith"; people with strong religious convictions are especially vulnerable to disinformation. One obvious reason is that ALL religions contain some degree of prophesy.

And nothing could come more naturally to the Psychopaths than posing as False Prophets (i.e. getting their Stooges to do so). Whether that means attempting to foist some False Messiah upon us, OR simply keeping people "of faith" confused/disorganized with endless, bogus "prophesy"; either way they can use your religion against you.

I preach (extreme) Skepticism as my mantra when viewing any Alternative Media materials. With mainstream literature we have no need for "skepticism" -- we know it's all lies.



Believe none of what you hear, and half of what you see.

With respect to religious "news" in the Alternative Media; I recommend Skepticism "squared". Lol!!!
Nov 12
Jeff Nielson replied to the topic Re: Jeff Nielson, for Sprott Money: in the forums.
For those who may not have seen it already; there's a new/recent thread on the "Ebola outbreak" (started by Dylan), upon which this commentary is largely based.



Silver Versus Ebola: A Medical Revolution?

www.sprottmoney.com/news/silver-versus-e...on-sprott-money-news

For centuries, humanity has utilized “colloidal silver” to treat disease and infection, and to prevent disease and infection. Colloidal silver is (primarily) an internal medical treatment, created by immersing particles of silver in a colloidal solution.

Before the invention of antibacterial soap, colloidal silver was used as a disinfectant. It is still commonly used to kill bacteria…In ancient times silver was used in wound dressings and it was frequently used for the same purposes in America following the Civil War. It is also why churches use silver chalices in Communion to stop disease spreading through the congregation…
Nov 12
As promised:

Silver Versus Ebola: A Medical Revolution?
www.sprottmoney.com/news/silver-versus-e...on-sprott-money-news

I'm posting it here, as well, in case people don't see it on the "Sprott Money" thread. It was warmly received there -- as can be seen by how quickly they got it published (lol).

Thanks Dylan.
Nov 12
Earl wrote:
Jeff,

"Thank You", for taking the time to reply.

As a member who had the "assumption" of what you meant by "TA" for longer than I'll admit-

GLR = LIBOR – GOFO, GOFO = LIBOR – GLR, LIBOR = GLR + GOFO

Was an extremely convoluted issue to read.

Jeff in reply-

The problem is that these analysts ASSUME that backwardation is bullish, and then claim to use the fact of backwardation as proof of a bullish market. This is known as "circular reasoning", and is an egregious flaw in logic.



Thanks again,
Earl



Indeed Earl, we can file this particular double-talk under the "baffle them with bull-shit" category.

Whether this particular commentator was sincere, or not, the "formula" he used here is yet another construct of the banksters. Creating their vacuous "formulas" to spread their Half-Truths is very closely related to all of the (bogus/absurd) "statistics" which they create.

Propaganda/disinformation or simple, bald lies are much more likely to be swallowed (whole, and without consideration) if they are "dressed up" with numbers and/or formulae -- to make them sound/look "scientific". Lol!

Similarly, the "economists" and other charlatan-experts which the banksters trot-out to spread their lies love to throw complex (and frequently meaningless) JARGON in our faces. Because simply by using terminology which we don't understand; they make themselves appear (to most of the Zombies) as being better/smarter than thus -- or simply possessing "knowledge" which we supposedly lack.

As a general rule; ANYTHING which you read in the media, and which is not easily decipherable by someone with moderate intelligence (and no specialized education) is generally either deliberate propaganda/disinformation, or it's simply academic gibberish.

Put another way; anything which the mentally-stunted Drones of the mainstream media are able to "cover" themselves can be put into terms simple enough for anyone to understand. If it sounds "complicated"; it's almost certainly flawed.
Nov 12
Jeff Nielson replied to the topic Re: The Missing Verse in the forums.
Good stuff, Dylan!

Yes, our Oppressors do want us to "remember the Fallen" -- so they can exploit them as their own symbols/martyrs. But what they never, ever want us to "remember" (or think about) is why really did all these young men die???

Certainly we should honour the memory of all those soldiers (victims?) whose lives were dramatically shortened by (in their own minds) "serving their Country" (and thus all of us).

Conversely, what should not/must not ever be "honoured" are the wars themselves. It sickens me to see Hollywood (yet again) bombarding us with another wave of their propaganda-motivated "war movies". Like many (most?) males; I considered many of those movies to be "entertaining" -- until I reached my mid-teens. I suspect that "MASH" was a very strong influence in dispelling my youthful, propaganda-fueled, delusions that war was (or at least could be) glorious/glamorous.

In cultures where our popular entertainment is a major ingredient in our programming; it's very sad (and certainly not coincidental) that the Zombies of our 21st century societies have no similar entertainment "rebuttals" to the propaganda that war-is-glorious. Indeed, with Hollywood doing "re-makes" of virtually anything/everything which has previously made a buck for them; why has there been no re-make of MASH...???

Nov 12
Earl created a new topic Permanent gold backwardation = global meltdown in the forums.
To the Community,

Between my dose of Colloidal Silver and my new routine of exercises, I was sent this article.

I appreciate any and all feedback-

Thank You
Earl


Permanent gold backwardation = global meltdown ahead


An analysis of the potential for permanent gold backwardation to lead to global financial crisis and an enormous increase in the gold price.
Author: Dr Fraser Murrell
Posted: Sunday , 09 Nov 2014

MELBOURNE -

This article discusses the meaning of gold backwardation and its relationship with the global economy.

Antal Fekete {1} warned many years ago that a “permanent gold backwardation” would act as a financial black hole that would consume the entire global financial system. Subsequent “scholars” [2} found (minor) flaws in his argument. However (I believe) Fekete was right and that his warning is particularly pertinent today - as gold now enters its fourth year in (or near) backwardation.

First - some definitions. The GOFO (gold forward rate) measures the difference between the spot gold price and the forward (futures) price, measured as a percentage, quoted individually over 1, 2, 3, 6 and 12 months. GOFO is (a swap rate) paid by the gold owner, who puts up his gold as collateral to borrow dollars. If GOFO is positive (negative) respectively, then he will pay (receive) interest to get dollars and have his gold stored. Now if the owner of the gold immediately invested those dollars at the risk free rate LIBOR, he would have a total return of GLR = (LIBOR – GOFO) at the end of the lease period. The (implied) GLR stands for the Gold Lease Rate, which is the theoretical risk free return paid to the owner of physical gold for leasing it into the market. For later reference, I write this simple formula here in all its variations:

GLR = LIBOR – GOFO, GOFO = LIBOR – GLR, LIBOR = GLR + GOFO

Now if GOFO is positive (negative) respectively, the market is said to be in contango (backwardation). The normal market state is contango (GOFO > 0 or GLR < LIBOR), because there are costs associated in holding gold over any period of time (storage, insurance, lost interest). Backwardation (GOFO < 0 or GLR > LIBOR) is (or rather once was) very rare and indicates that the market will pay a higher rate of interest to borrow gold than to borrow cash, despite the associated costs of holding gold. It usually indicates (short term) supply issues and a strong demand for physical gold for immediate delivery. However, when this demand cannot be met over a long time period, we get a “semi-permanent backwardation”, which the world has already experienced during the 1970’s after Nixon took us off the gold standard - and gold rose from $35 to over $800 before the backwardation could be broken. But if ever we get a “permanent backwardation”, then the demand for gold can never be satisfied and the value of gold tends towards the infinite, consuming the entire financial system (a black hole, as Fekete describes it). This means the total collapse of fiat currency, as has occurred previously in the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe.

Now some “financial experts” (who have called Fekete a “pseudo-expert”) including Dr Tom Fischer with help from Bron Suchecki (Perth Mint) [2] , have claimed that backwardation represents nothing special and that it creates no arbitrage opportunity and so it has NO effect on the economy. However, their argument fails to understand the nuance of “fractional reserve bullion banking” whereby (in addition to buying and leasing physical gold) a bullion bank can create (out of thin air) and sell into the market gold certificates which carry none of the costs of holding physical gold The extra saving results in the arbitrage. To prove my point, I will consider three cases calling them Bullion Banks A (Fekete), B (Fischer) and C (Real World).

Bullion Bank A has physical gold stored and insured at an annual cost of X% and they enter a lease whereby the gold is physically transferred out and returned a year later at the lease rate GLR. They would therefore have a cash return of GLR on the lease plus the unpaid costs of X%, for a total profit of GLR + X% - which money they would not have received had they not leased the gold. Fekete claimed that this was an “arbitrage” profit, but Fischer correctly pointed out that because the gold is leased for that year, the owner has given up his right to sell that gold during the year (equivalent to an additional sale of a put option) which explains the extra amount received. However, Fischer then fails in logic by arguing from his own (special) case to a (general) conclusion.

Bullion Bank B starts with zero holdings and borrows money paying LIBOR, to buy physical gold and lease it into the market to receive GLR and receive GOFO on the sale of the gold a year later, thereby returning the bank to its original position (zero) except for the profit (loss) on the arbitrage. But there is no profit (loss) because his expense (LIBOR) equals his gain (GLR + GOFO), because LIBOR = GLR + GOFO and so there is no arbitrage. However, what Fischer is missing is the fact that in the real world, bullion banks (1) don’t generally buy and sell or even lease physical gold and (2) they instead create and issue certificates as a promissory notes for gold for which they do not have to borrow money, and (3) they sell more certificates than are covered by their own physical gold holdings, and (4) they can hedge their additional risk in many ways at cheaper rates than GOFO, and (5) not all Bullion Banks are totally honest (which point I will try to ignore, no matter how interesting).

My point is this - neither case A (Fekete) nor B (Fischer) accurately represent the real world and in any case you cannot prove a general principle from a specific example. That said, I will now show that the bullion banks can indeed create an arbitrage and then go on to discuss the implications of what it means if this arbitrage remains open indefinitely – which (I think) helps explains how the bullion banks have gotten us to where we are and what happens next..

Bullion Bank C holds an unknown amount of physical gold and engages in the normal business practice of “fractional reserve bullion banking” - whereby they create (out of thin air) certificates, sell (or lease) them as gold and hedge their exposure in the futures markets and elsewhere, using all sorts of fancy techniques. As a base case, the profit comes from creating the certificates and either (1) selling them receiving LIBOR and hedging the risk by paying GOFO for a total return of (LIBOR – GOFO) = GLR, or (2) by leasing them out at GLR and hence the return is exactly the same. Thus to make a guaranteed arbitrage profit, they do not even need gold backwardation (GOFO < 0) all they need is for (GOFO < LIBOR). Thus the lower GOFO goes, the greater the arbitrage and if gold goes into backwardation (GOFO negative), the arbitrage remains open for so long as LIBOR remains positive (perhaps indefinitely).

The next question is can and under what conditions do bullion banks make arbitrage profits in the opposite direction? Fischer correctly points out that if the banks buy physical gold, there can be no arbitrage, but if the banks buy back there own certificates, they need only pay what the sold them for (large joke just made) which is GLR = (LIBOR – GOFO). However this cost becomes an arbitrage profit when GOFO > LIBOR. Thus there exists an arbitrage whenever GOFO is either sufficiently large or small relative to the risk free rate LIBOR – and only when LIBOR = GOFO does there not exist any gold arbitrage at all.

Summary of Conditions for Bullion Bank Arbitrage

Selling gold certificates GOFO < LIBOR

No arbitrage GOFO = LIBOR

Buying back gold certificates GOFO > LIBOR

For reference, you can view the GOFO and LIBOR rates and charts here:

www.quandl.com/OFDP/GOLD_3-LBMA-Gold-Forward-Offered-Rates-GOFO

www.macrotrends.net/1433/historical-libor-rates-chart

Now all this makes perfect sense because (1) when there is high market demand for physical relative to future gold, the bullion banks can arbitrage by selling (expensive) spot certificates and buying (cheap) futures, and (2) when there is high market demand for future gold relative to spot gold, the bullion banks can arbitrage by buying back (cheap) certificates and selling (expensive) futures.

There is however one obvious risk in this business, namely that they get stuck with a full arbitrage book in a permanent backwardation – whereby they have sold (unbacked) gold certificates and the market never swings back into a contango to let them out. Indeed their worst nightmare would be if they sold a great number of certificates and a determined buyer (such as the Hunt brothers, or China) stood for and demanded physical delivery. Bear Stearns is rumoured to have collapsed in 2008 due to their massive short position in the silver. But since that time the banks have written themselves an escape clause, allowing (among other things) cash settlement upon default - thus reducing the need to chase physical metal to cover paper contracts. Today all they have to do is drop the price and then default on all outstanding contracts, thus escaping and making money at the same time! However the resulting scandal would probably close the market.

All of that said, my actual proof for the existence of an arbitrage rest with the fact that without a guaranteed return, the banks would not be in the business in the first place and would not have subsequently made profits every day for years on end without a single loss. And yet they are and they do, so QED – there is an arbitrage! Admittedly, the arbitrage comes from investor’s mistaken belief that “paper gold” is the same as “physical gold”, but because the banks have mitigated their risks, an arbitrage does in fact exist (at least for them). Having finally established this (important) fact, what then are the ramifications of it?

Firstly, there is incentive for the banks to run the gold price (or rather GOFO) up and down as often as possible so as to regularly open and close arbitrages and make profits on each swing. With this knowledge one can then predict which way the bullion banks will be trading because as a general rule, when they are selling (buying back) gold certificates the gold price will go down (up) respectively. But this subject is off topic and so I leave it to you to look at the charts, crunch the numbers and see what I am talking about.

Secondly, it appears that movements in GOFO and the actions of the bullion banks have a significant effect on the global economy. To understand this consider the size of the gold market. Each day (on Comex alone) around 500,000 contracts are traded, there being 100 oz per contract, with each ounce valued around $1,200. So there is around $60 billion of gold traded per day or around $15 trillion per year. I do not have the figures for all the other markets (London, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc), but when you add it all up, it should be obvious that the global gold market is big enough to influence (and perhaps dominate) any other market on planet earth.

Now look again at the GOFO and LIBOR charts and notice that GOFO leads LIBOR (by around three months) and not the other way around !!! Furthermore the sudden withdrawal of gold from the markets in Sep 2007, resulting in a plunge in the GOFO rates from over 5% down to zero (being caused by the unwinding of a massive gold arbitrage and the establishment of another arbitrage in the opposite direction) was probably responsible for the plunge in LIBOR rates from over 5% down to zero three months later, resulting in the current ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) worldwide. One can argue “chicken and egg” and more research is always needed, but it certainly appears that gold and its GOFO rate (backwardation or contango) lead global interest rate markets and thereby directly influence (or dominate) the global economy.

Thirdly, while geo-politics are beyond the scope of this note, there are reports of large and ongoing buying (by China and others) of physical gold and there are suspicions that this demand has been offset by both a reduction in the physical gold holdings of the bullion banks and by the selling of additional “paper gold” into the market. Although such market conditions (backwardation) encourage the selling gold certificates, there is always the danger of over-extension. Indeed, some reports suggest that there are now over 100 paper claims for every physical ounce of gold held. Furthermore, because a large proportion of the physical gold that backs the markets has been moved offshore (with cash used as collateral instead), the market has become ever more unstable and vulnerable to sudden collapse. Chaos theory tells us that “you never know which snowflake will cause the avalanche, the important thing is the degree of instability of the underlying state” and I would argue that the gold market is in fact unstable and moving ever closer to its “snowflake moment”.

In a “short term backwardation”, the mathematics clearly dictates that the bullion banks should arbitrage by selling certificates. But as the backwardation becomes “semi-permanent” - as it has been since 2011 - the market risks entering a negative feedback loop, causing the backwardation to become ever deeper. This is caused by investors stubbornly buying physical gold thereby removing the backing for the market itself. Announcements by the US Mint of “record sales” and “shortages” do not help.

One solution to breaking such a backwardation is to take LIBOR negative, which seems impossible, but this is strangely happening in Europe where banks are now charging customers interest to safely store their money. Other solutions are (1) to drive the spot gold price ever lower, in the HOPE of getting the spot price to stay below the futures price and thereby create a positive GOFO, and (2) to drive the gold price so high that investors stop buying and the gold hoarders start selling (or leasing), all with sufficient quantity so as to create a lasting contango.

This problem should be well understood by both the bullion banks and the Governments because they have already seen it once before in the 1970s. When Nixon ended the “gold standard” in 1971, there was a massive flight to gold and a “semi permanent” backwardation resulted. The gold price rose from $35 to $200 in 1974 and then the price was taken back down to $100 in 1976 (presumably in the hope of ending the backwardation). But this only caused a surge in demand which eventually took the gold price back over $800 in 1980. Inflation skyrocketed, requiring interest rates to be raised to around 20%. Finally, some sellers and leasers of gold appeared and the backwardation was broken, allowing for the normalization of interest rates and the economy.

But the same problem is repeating today and so far the response has been the same. From 2008 to 2011 the gold price tripled from $650 to $1,900. Over the last three years the bullion banks and Governments have tried to break the backwardation and normalize the economy by dumping huge amounts of physical gold and “paper gold” at the gold spot price. But they have failed, because although they have reduced the gold price from $1,900 back down to $1,200, they have not been able to create a lasting contango. Instead, the gold buyers and hoarders have dug in, bought everything and demanded more – which has only strengthened the backwardation.

Sooner or later, the bullion banks and Governments will run out of ammunition and they will be forced to step back and allow the market to do its thing. Which is to repeat of the 1970s – the worst of all economic outcomes – stagflation. Unfortunately, this is the consequence of all the money printing and while it can be delayed – it cannot be stopped. The gold price will eventually peak in the tens of thousands of dollars and unless the bullion banks unwind their short positions, they will either default or go bankrupt.

But the most serious outcome is Fekete’s vision of a “permanent backwardation” whence, unlike the 1970’s, the gold backwardation can NEVER be broken. In this case, the gold price tends towards the infinite, taking inflation with it. The gold lease rate GLR is also driven to infinity (by the market seeking gold) and LIBOR is dragged up with it under the relationship LIBOR = GLR – GOFO. But in this case there is no end - confidence in dollars is completely lost and gold goes into deep hiding (bid no offer). Under these circumstances we get a hyper-inflation and a total collapse of the fiat money system. Just like the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe. Gold will then have (once again) reasserted its supremacy.

The world will then be divided between those who have gold and those who do not. War and chaos will reign until the poor countries accept the terms of the rich countries under a new world order using gold as currency. Somewhat ironically, this scenario was originally dictated in the US Constitution - but as Winston Churchill famously said “you can rely on Americans to do the right thing AFTER they have exhausted all other possibilities”. And so I think history will judge the period from 1971 (Nixon) to 2014 (?) as the era of American economic insanity.

Professor Antal Fekete is the pioneer of this argument, although his “colourful style” has often left him open to criticism. I would also like to thank Dr Tom Fischer whose criticism has got me to rethink the problem and then add support to Fekete’s work.

References: [1] Prof Antal Fekete - www.professorfekete.com/

{2} Dr Tom Fischer “gofo – real explanations vs pseudo experts” www.safehaven.com/article/32250/gofo-rea...ns-vs-pseudo-experts

Dr Fraser Murrell is an Australian mathematician and quantitative analyst with substantial experience in the financial sector as analyst, broker and trader. He was also the inspiration for the recent Mineweb article showing how the bullion banks can manipulate the precious metals markets through futures trading. See: Futures markets keep precious metals prices depressed
Nov 11
Yup, I think a "Charles Lindbergh's Notable Quotes" section is coming soon. Again from Lindbergh:

It is the crushing domination of property interests over human rights that makes trouble.

Remember again that this is written by a Republican politician -- not a card-carrying member of the Communist Party (lol).

How "crushing" has the domination of "property interests" gotten in the 21st century? In Lindbergh's time (and eyes); property merely had "interests", and only human beings had RIGHTS.

Today; property RIGHTS reign supreme, while our "human rights" are simply erased by the Fascists, one by one.

Nov 11

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2011-11-12 01:44:19
There are very few global patriots of the people. .....

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