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‘Shock and Awe’ in Precious Metals

Articles & Blogs - Silver Commentary

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Earlier this month, precious metals investors witnessed arguably the most concerted take-down of the precious metals sector since the Crash of ’08. First, investors were lathered-up into a mania, after World Bank head Robert Zoellick planted a piece in the Financial Times where he feigned interest in having a gold standard re-instituted.

Then the ambush took place.

This time, China was clearly participating as the ‘tag-team’ partner of the U.S. government. It began by raising reserve requirements for its banks – a move always seen as restraining the growth of an economy (and reducing commodities demand). Then the Chinese government leaked word that it was “planning interest rate increases” (even more bearish for commodities), all within the span of a couple of days.

What launched the “ambush”, however, was the utterly unprecedented move by the CME Group (owner of the Comex exchange) to radically increase margin requirements for silver halfway through a trading session. Clearly, the intent was to get precious metals investors as over-extended as possible – and then to “drop the hammer” on them at literally the best (i.e. most-damaging) moment.

This was immediately followed by yet another increase in bank reserves by China’s government, mere days after the previous reserve-increase was announced. With the U.S. having already taken radical action to curb commodities markets, it is simply not plausible that the Chinese government suddenly decided that further tightening was necessary. Instead, this was a move purely intended to generate more downside momentum in commodities by China, the world’s largest consumer of those commodities (including precious metals). And when those moves still did not generate the downward momentum desired by these market-manipulators, the CME Group announced yet another reduction of “margin” – this time for both gold and silver.

In previous years, a premeditated, orchestrated take-down of precious metals of this magnitude would derail the market for many weeks, if not months. However, that era is over.

Following the inevitable plunge of these commodities markets (as margin players were driven out), gold and silver quickly bottomed and firmed. This epitomizes the entirely different attitude of precious metals buyers. Whereas before such ambushes would create fear among investors that a “top” had occurred in the market, today all that goes through the minds of investors when precious metals go lower is “gold and silver are on sale!”

Buyers gleefully soaked-up every ounce of cheap bullion which the bullion banks chose to bestow upon them (as an early Christmas present). And now, with the month over, and “delivery” due in the Comex, those buyers are saying “give us our gold and silver.” While the numbers bounce around day-to-day, at present these buyers are wanting to take delivery on a large portion of total, available gold inventories and nearly ¾ of all available silver in Comex inventories.

Though it was the bankster cabal which launched this ‘shock’ on the precious metals market (and precious metals investors), the only ‘awe’ that was experienced was that of the banksters, themselves, as buyers are now holding out their hands and demanding that the bullion banks deliver most of their dwindling supplies of real bullion. Much like pointing a bazooka at someone – and not noticing that you were holding it backwards – this ambush has now blown up in the faces of these bankers.

If these manipulative buffoons had the slightest understanding of these markets, the spectacular failure of their attempt to (once again) “cap” precious metals would have come as no surprise. As I write regularly, anything under-priced (like precious metals) will be over-consumed. Push the price even lower, and inventories will disappear that much quicker.

The example I have used previously is chocolate bars. Price chocolate bars at 10 cents each (which was their price before 40 years  of banker-produced inflation destroyed the value of our currency) and store shelves will be quickly stripped bare. Yet in the convoluted fantasy-world of the bullion banks, if they saw store shelves being cleaned-out with chocolate bars at 10 cents apiece, their “strategy” would be to attempt to kill demand by pricing them at 5 cents.

In previous years, the banksters could avoid being punished for their total ignorance of commodity fundamentals. Armed with countless tons of bullion which Western central banks had foolishly leased to them, when the cabal drove down precious metals prices and buyers stepped in to load-up, they would simply drive prices even lower (by dumping yet more bullion onto the market) – until even the most ardent bulls capitulated.

Those days are gone, because the bullion is gone. Today, when bullion prices are driven down, and buyers step in to buy, it is the bullion banks who are now forced to capitulate. Much like a thug who points a revolver at someone – after the sixth shot is fired – the banksters now frighten no one in the precious metals market.

In the case of silver, the only “gun” now pointing at anyone is the gun which the bullion bankers are holding against their own temple (with a “silver bullet” in the chamber). As regular readers know, most of the total global stockpiles of silver (accumulated over roughly 5,000 years) are now gone. Used-up (in tiny amounts) in an infinite number of consumer and industrial goods, that silver can now never be economically recovered – unless/until the price rises to many multiples of the current price. Put another way, with gold now priced at roughly 50 times the price of silver, at some point before silver reaches $1400/oz, it will finally become valuable enough that industrial users will take measures to recover this silver, much like virtually 100% of all gold is recovered/recycled.

At the present time, the only message being sent (by the bankers) to silver’s multitude of industrial users is “silver is cheap”. With the bankers ensuring that silver is grossly under-priced, industrial demand is predictably soaring – up 18% year-over-year.

Readers must realize that these industrial users can obviously never be “frightened off” by cheap silver, but instead will simply increase their buying (as they have done). Having gotten industrial users ‘addicted’ to cheap silver, it is now up to the bullion banks to produce enough real bullion to satisfy the rabid appetite for industrial silver – or face the consequences: their own economic annihilation.

Short” 100’s of millions of ounces of silver, JP Morgan is already facing $billions in losses on that part of their holdings, alone. However, after squandering their bullion inventories, the banksters turned to the derivatives market to use paper leverage to continue to manipulate prices.

Thanks to the CPM Group’s Jeffrey Christian, we have a rough idea of precisely how leveraged is that short position: about 100:1. So when JP Morgan starts with $billions in losses, and leverages that 100:1, the bottom-line is bankruptcy. And the harder these knuckle-draggers push-down on the market (thinking they are limiting their losses), the sooner the last bar of silver is gone – and with it, JP Morgan.

With available silver now nearly gone, we are very close to (if not already at) the point in time where industrial users make a frantic effort to buy and hoard every ounce of silver that they can lay their hands on, and soaring prices will only make them buy faster. Understand that the pretext of raising margin requirements in the silver market was to restore “order” to that market. Instead, because this move was motivated by corruption and malice rather than market fundamentals, raising margin requirements (and creating a “sale” for silver) is creating much more disorder – and rapidly setting the stage for an actual default (a fail to “deliver”) in the silver market.

It is because of this total reversal in attitudes (and the depletion of bullion inventories) that I continue to urge investors to “think like the big buyers”. They want to see bullion prices fall, because they know inventories are depleted, and any pull-backs will be shorter and shorter.

When bullion prices fall, gold and silver are “on sale”. Period. And as we are always reminded when any retailer advertises a sale, buy now – because quantities are limited.

 

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Jeff Nielson
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written by Jeff Nielson, November 20, 2011
Lol Paxjds! Such fantasies are a lot of fun.

However I'll be thinking more of HIDING my silver from JPM rather than flaunting it in their face (lol), since as has been discussed elsewhere, these bankers are consummate "Silver Stealers"...

smilies/wink.gif
paxjds
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written by paxjds, November 20, 2011
Jeff, to do my part as a good neighbor to JM Morgan, when the "Shortage" hits JP Morgan, I will help bail them out by selling them 40 oz lots of silver at $500 an ounce, up to two lots maximum. This is to be paid in 1 OZ gold coins or bullion bars at time of sale, or in Swiss Franc's; sellers option. This offer expires a year from today.
If enough BullionbullsCanada followers match my offer, JP Morgan will be able to sleep again.
PS This is real Silver that I have, not pieces of paper in IOU form like a Federal Reserve dollar, or a SLV transfer from my broker. What a Deal !And they will save me from my minimal vault storage charges.
Jeff Nielson
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written by Jeff Nielson, February 15, 2011
Jreb, for those readers who are not aware of this, we have forged a very good relationship with The Street.com - and they now publish the vast majority of the pieces that I submit to them, INCLUDING this "Shock and Awe" piece AND my more recent piece on "Suicide Bombers in the Gold Market".

I've been VERY impressed with how receptive they have been to my DECIDEDLY 'non-mainstream views', and they even invited me to be on their "election night panel", a live blog they had for the last U.S. election.

There ARE still some "enclaves of journalism" in the mainstream media - even in places where we might not expect to find them.
Jreb
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written by Jreb, February 14, 2011
Nicely done.

Would be nice to see an article like this in a main stream national paper...

Maybe it would spur more buying by side liners...
sailortony
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written by sailortony, December 09, 2010
Jeff, Glad you found my Sprott articles. As I was trying to post on your own What's Next for Silver, when my post disappeared in cyberspace!

That is how it ended up in this some what unrelated thread.

Enjoy the read.
Jeff Nielson
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written by Jeff Nielson, December 09, 2010
Thanks for the link, SailorTony.

Certainly worth a read to see what he has to say...
sailortony
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written by sailortony, December 09, 2010


The Double-Barelled Silver Issue by Sprott.

" Regular Markets at a Glance readers may have wondered why we remained so silent on the subject of silver over the last several months. Considering the significant exposure we have to silver as a firm, we can assure you that it wasn’t for lack of desire to share our views, but rather due to strict solicitation restrictions imposed on us by the cross-border listing of Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) this past October. It therefore gives us great pleasure to finally share our views on silver with you.

We have included two separate articles in this issue of Markets at a Glance: the first was written back in June 2010, and contains the information we used in the prospectus for the PSLV. The second is an update article written this past month that discusses new developments in the silver market and confirms our views on the metal. We urge you to read them both in order to understand our investment thesis for silver, and we hope they compel you to take a much closer look at silver as a long-term investment. Silver’s dramatic rise over the last two months is no fluke - it’s the result of a compelling supply/demand dynamic within a unique market structure. We hope the following articles convey our enthusiasm for "the other shiny metal" as an exceptional investment opportunity."

These articles which are longish can be found here:

http://www.industrymailout.com/Industry/View.aspx?id=245442&q=264546569&qz=459820

It will sound familiar on the one hand, but also contains some of the traditional views.
Jeff Nielson
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written by Jeff Nielson, December 02, 2010
I totally agree RegularGuy - and have been saying the same thing. China won't let the renminbi rise versus the dollar (at the moment) to prevent the U.S. from devaluing its debts owed to China, and engaging in a stealth-default.
regularguy
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written by regularguy, December 02, 2010
Your succinct description of the tag team role China is playing in holding the PM
prices down was again validated by the non-descript action the Chinese gov't took
instituted by permitting the peasantry to invest in the western PM ETFs. My theory
is they are attempting to delay the inevitable USD devaluation until they get a chance to unload its mountainous US reserves for Western assets. By offering the illusion of PM investments in these fraudulent (leveraged fractional reserves with no real ownership) schemes they allow the criminals to continue the fraud.
0
...
written by HA65MPH, December 01, 2010
VERY WELL SAID !!...Jeff , .. Way- To-GO !
navderek
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written by navderek, December 01, 2010
++++ for this well written article.
In my mind Silver is on sale until the day the COMEX defaults, because at any time before that point the price of silver will be so much lower than what it will be after that day.
mathnerd
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written by mathnerd, December 01, 2010
Well said.

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