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My Last Forecast on Silver and Gold Prices

Articles & Blogs - Silver Commentary

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It seems at the very least ironic that as I begin a new chapter in my own career as precious metals analyst for Silver Gold Bull, that simultaneously I’m writing my last chapter on one facet of that analysis. This will be my last effort at playing the increasingly irrelevant game of attempting to forecast gold and silver prices – in terms of the bankers’ paper.

Many readers will be aghast at this announcement. How can I “analyze” the gold and silver market without providing guidance on its (paper) prices? I would immediately reverse this proposition with a question of my own. How can anyone provide rational estimates for future prices of hard assets which are being priced in paper which is already effectively worthless?

Now it is the paper-peddlers who would be horrified by my stance. How dare I assert that the beloved fiat-currencies which they (and their propaganda machine) place in such high esteem are worthless? Here I have a host of arguments at my disposal, several of which I have used in the past.

There is the obvious analogy between paper currencies and the shares of a corporation. With nothing officially “backing” these paper currencies, our governments can only impute value in this paper as a claim against these sovereign entities which issue them. How much is a share worth in a bankrupt corporation? How much is a dollar worth, when it is issued by an obviously bankrupt debtor?

However we don’t need to go down that road, since it would inevitably lead to a debate between the phony, official numbers of the United State’s “national debt”, and the $200+ trillion in debts and liabilities which it would be forced to acknowledge if it had to follow the same accounting rules as all U.S. corporations are required by law to use.

There is a much simpler and more direct way to demonstrate the worthlessness of the U.S. dollar, one which is beyond any possible debate. As a tautology, anything which can be obtained in infinite quantities and produced at zero cost must be worthless. If this were not the case, then one would simply produce an infinite quantity of that item – and then exchange it for all the goods (and services) in the entire world.

With most of our fiat currencies now being conjured into existence electronically, this is the ultimate example of an infinite quantity/zero cost item…with one exception. Since all of this funny-money is borrowed into existence, the bankers were previously able to claim that in fact this was not a “zero cost” item – because of the debt/interest attached to each currency unit.

However that argument, the only basis for claiming that the bankers’ fiat currency had any value whatsoever evaporated the day that the U.S. began its permanent era of 0% interest rates. On that day the U.S. dollar fully became a zero cost/infinite quantity item – and indisputably worthless as a basic proposition of logic.

Why do people think B.S. Bernanke attempted to peddle the myth of an “exit strategy” – i.e. an end to 0% interest rates – for nearly three years, before finally being forced to abandon that absurd pretense? Because he and the rest of the banking cabal are terrified that someone would stand up (as I have done on several occasions) and announce that “the Emperor is wearing no clothes.”

At the end of Tulipmania 400 years ago; one day a single tulip could be exchanged to buy a house. The next day that tulip was merely a flower. The tulip itself was unchanged. All that did change was that the mass delusion that tulips were items of considerable value suddenly and collectively evaporated. It is one of the reasons why every fiat currency ever created has gone to zero (or simply been removed from circulation before it hit zero). It is one of the reasons why they tend to go to zero very, very quickly – more commonly known as “hyperinflation”.

The moment we accept the logical fact that these fiat currencies are already worthless we see the absurdity of attempting to price valuable assets (like gold and silver) in paper which has no meaning. If I announce that in hyperinflation-ravaged Zimbabwe that an ounce of gold is “worth” $2.5 trillion Zimbabwe dollars, does that actually mean anything to anyone?

 

Sadly, we have collectively been so completely brainwashed (over the past century) that we are now almost incapable of conceiving a world which is not priced in paper. However, go back little more than a century (and for all the centuries preceding it throughout history) and we encounter a world virtually the mirror-opposite of our own.

In that world, everything was “priced” in gold and silver. The only way that mere paper could ever acquire value was as a certificate directly backed by gold or silver. The concept of a world where everything was “priced” in fiat paper which was backed by nothing (and effectively worthless) would have been a proposition much too ludicrous for any of our ancestors to consider – except during their own, brief, disastrous experiments with such paper.

As our fiat currencies begin their final descent into history’s dust-bin of failed paper, we are entering a period of transition and re-education. We must reintroduce into our minds the concept of once again pricing goods and services in terms of items of enduring value (i.e. real money).

There is no space here to explain (yet one more time) why gold and silver are “money” while our paper currencies are obviously not. Readers will have to refer to previous explanations of the definition of money. Once readers have completed this second step in their mental transition, they are ready to return to a world of real money – and rational “value”.

How many ounces of gold does a house cost? How many pairs of shoes could one purchase with an ounce of silver? When the “dimes” and “quarters” in our wallets once again contain actual silver (real money), we could once again buy a chocolate bar with a dime (as we could only a few decades ago) – and perhaps several.

This mental transition will naturally seem like a very intimidating concept to many, just as the Dutch couldn’t conceive of a world which was not “priced” in tulips – the day before Tulipmania ended. Here it’s important to make readers explicitly aware of the penalties for being one of the last to make the transition away from the bankers’ world of worthless, fraudulent paper.

If you were a Dutch resident who exchanged his/her tulips for items of real value before the day Tulipmania ended, you fully protected/insured your wealth. If you did not do so, you were completely wiped-out financially – with nothing to console you except a handful of pretty flowers.

If we exchange our dollars (or euros) for hard assets (i.e. silver and gold) now, before they inevitably suffer the same fate as the Zimbabwe dollar, we can still protect what is left of our wealth. If we attempt to exchange our paper the day after our own “Tulipmania” comes to an end we will find we are holding nothing but an inferior brand of toilet paper.

It is because the speed at which this final collapse will occur is so unpredictable that it has become a Fool’s Game attempting to guess short-term prices for silver and gold – and now even predicting longer term prices as well.  Indeed, this is now so speculative that it only makes sense to do so in a “best-case scenario” for the bankers’ paper (i.e. where they are able to delay the collapse of their paper with the maximum amount of success). Obviously in their worst-case scenario the paper would be absolutely worthless, inferring infinite prices for gold, silver, and other hard assets.

Thus my worst-case scenario for the price of gold is a price of at least $5,000/oz within the next 2 – 5 years. Similarly, my prediction for the price of silver would be a minimum of $200/oz within that same 2 – 5 year time horizon. Some will accuse me of making a “prediction” so loose as to be useless. I make no apologies.

None other than the eminent John Williams of Shadowstats.com, the foremost expert on U.S. inflation, flatly asserted that hyperinflation could hit the U.S. as early as 2011. The fact that this estimate has proven premature is no slight against Mr. Williams. In periods of market “mania”, whether we are talking about Tulipmania 400 years ago or “dot-com mania” little more than a decade ago, such collective insanity tends to endure longer than any rational mind would predict.

So it is with “dollar mania”. I have just finished demonstrating that the U.S. dollar is already worthless, as a tautology of logic. At the same time, we have the shills of the Corporate Media assuring any and all Sheep who still heed their nonsense that the U.S. dollar is a “safe haven”. The endless assertions by these loyal drones of the unsinkable” stature of the dollar is eerily remeniscent of the Titanic.

Understand that the Flight out of Paper has already begun. In the East – the prosperous economies which are slowly, steadily taking control of the global economy - $trillions per year in trade which used to be conducted in U.S. dollars is now being carried out through direct, bilateral trading using these nations’ own currencies.

This huge collapse in demand for U.S. dollars is yet another dynamic which can only end in a zero-value dollar. As the global glut of dollars gets larger and larger, the value of these ever-growing mountains of paper must rapidly decline in corresponding terms. Arguing that the U.S, dollar “has value” simply because it has not yet hit zero is precisely the same circular reasoning which doomed many of the Dutch at the end of Tulipmania.

Today I’m making my last call with respect to gold and silver prices. Another way of putting this would be that I’m making my “last call” for any/all passengers willing to disembark from the U.S.S. Titanic.

 


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Comments (19)Add Comment
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, June 29, 2012
Your reasoning is actually quite calming for my nerves.lol. I think I just read too much and get myself all paranoid.
One question though, how do they cover these counterfeited shorts and what would cause them to do so? Are they forced to buy them back in the market or could they just make them "disappear"?


Schnitz, Rule #1 around here is there ARE no "stupid questions". What's stupid (in my mind) is when people refuse to ask questions simply for FEAR of "looking stupid" (lol). Of course I'm biased here - being a compulsive question-asker, and I NEVER worry about looking stupid (only that I might drive people CRAZY with all my questions - lol).

Getting to your question, you need to understand the mechanics of shorting: you "borrow" shares (at the current price), and then you close your position by "covering" the short: going out on the market and buying back the shares.

Presumably you have made a profit because the cost when you actually bought the shares is below the price you originally "borrowed" the shares at.

Where shorting becomes "naked shorting" is where the shares are NEVER officially borrowed. Thus the short position represents (effectively) counterfeit shares. When the short position is closed, the imaginary shares disappear. The problem is that these (destructive) naked short positions will be left open for YEARS at a time, permanently dragging down the share price via this unofficial dilution.

Note however that even this form of market manipulation (market rape) is not ABSOLUTE in power. This is where we see the spectacular rallies enjoyed by the miners every few years - where they explode to many multiples of previous prices.

The miners become so ridiculously undervalued versus bullion that Big Money is attracted into the sector, and the short positions are all blown out of the water... smilies/smiley.gif
cnjansel@hotmail.com
...
written by cnjansel@hotmail.com, June 29, 2012
Thanks Jeff,
Your reasoning is actually quite calming for my nerves.lol. I think I just read too much and get myself all paranoid.
One question though, how do they cover these counterfeited shorts and what would cause them to do so? Are they forced to buy them back in the market or could they just make them "disappear"? Might be a stupid question, but I just don't get how they can just freely counterfeit with no repercussions. Kid regards, Schnitz
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, June 29, 2012
...I am just questioning if they even own the shares that I have purchased, since they hold them "in-kind" for me. Or is it that my portfolio is just tracking the share price. This way it forces them to buy the actual shares. And when you are talking a large order on a very illiquid, tightly held stock it could prove to be quite difficult for them. Who knows maybe I am just dreaming. But I will be watching this stock like a hawk over the next week or so to see if my order comes in. If you want to chat further just email me and I will respond with my number. Its too difficult to explain on a comment thread. I've also had issues with Alpha trading systems that you might be interested in. Kind regards, Schnitz


Schnitz, I think that (at least in one small respect) I can put your mind at ease. The naked shorting being done by the banksters IS no different from simply counterfeiting shares. However, whle their counterfeiting can INDIRECTLY affect your own shares (via the decline in share price caused by this unofficial dilution), nothing the bankers can do can impeach your own clear title to your equity interest in the companies you buy into.

UNLIKE the bankers, we have a LEGITIMATE paper-trail which can always be produced retroactively to verify/validate our own holdings. So short of suspecting that the bankers would attempt to falsify records, we have no real worries about "security" (unless/until the banks start to go bankrupt).

And of course the banksters CAN'T falsify records of share ownership, since there would be an immediate/obviuos disconnect between PAST and CURRENT records.

Note that even when MF Global customers had their accounts plundered that no EQUITIES were stolen - just CASH. So if you're "worried" about the banksters holding on to any of your OWN assets, then probably the place to START worrying is with any cash in your savings account(s). Lol!!
cnjansel@hotmail.com
...
written by cnjansel@hotmail.com, June 29, 2012
Hello Jeff,
Sorry I didn't explain fully. I'm not saying that it stops naked shorting, I am just questioning if they even own the shares that I have purchased, since they hold them "in-kind" for me. Or is it that my portfolio is just tracking the share price. This way it forces them to buy the actual shares. And when you are talking a large order on a very illiquid, tightly held stock it could prove to be quite difficult for them. Who knows maybe I am just dreaming. But I will be watching this stock like a hawk over the next week or so to see if my order comes in. If you want to chat further just email me and I will respond with my number. Its too difficult to explain on a comment thread. I've also had issues with Alpha trading systems that you might be interested in. Kind regards, Schnitz
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, June 28, 2012
I have recently spoken with a trading manager at TD Waterhouse and she had confirmed for me that each equity maybe held in certificate form or with the transfer agent digitally(DRS computershare). Its up to your mining company to decide which one. Most of mine are only available to be held in DRS. I have recently put one of my Junior holdings into DRS due to the fact that it is being Naked shorted to heaven (my opinion) so I have take delivery for that reason. The down fall is the 5-7day liquidation period and possibly longer. Also the $50 fee per security which is a one time shot on the way out but not on the way back in. I know, I have switched back and forth a few times just to see how it works.
...


Scnitz, sorry if I'm being dense and missing some obvious angle here, but I don't see how taking delivery of our share certificates helps to protect us from naked shorting?
cnjansel@hotmail.com
...
written by cnjansel@hotmail.com, June 28, 2012
Jeff & Jimha,
Thanks both for your input. I think we are all somewhat right in our assessments.
I have recently spoken with a trading manager at TD Waterhouse and she had confirmed for me that each equity maybe held in certificate form or with the transfer agent digitally(DRS computershare). Its up to your mining company to decide which one. Most of mine are only available to be held in DRS. I have recently put one of my Junior holdings into DRS due to the fact that it is being Naked shorted to heaven (my opinion) so I have take delivery for that reason. The down fall is the 5-7day liquidation period and possibly longer. Also the $50 fee per security which is a one time shot on the way out but not on the way back in. I know, I have switched back and forth a few times just to see how it works.
Honestly I hope Jimha is right and they back stop our banks, not that its right. Just so we can save our shares! Kind regards, Schnitz
jimha
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written by jimha, June 28, 2012
Jeff and Schnitzel

Let's face it they will never allow any of the big five to go down and would nationalize them if necessary. They are an permanent institutions in this country in my opinion so if your brokerage account is with any of these I think you can feel safe.

jimha
Jeff Nielson
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written by Jeff Nielson, June 28, 2012
Hello Jeff,
Being a Cdn investing 60% in miners(40% phys AG). Whats your opinion in holding them with the large banks i.e. TD Waterhouse? In a currencey reset would this bank not go bankrupt and lose my shares. Do you personally let the investment banks hold your shares in-kind, have them in DRS with the transfer agent or in certificate form? I am aware the CDN banks are a little better off but they are still only paper backing paper as you stated.
Thanks for your insight. Schnitzel


Schnitzel, you have indeed identified an area of my own personal concern (and obviously on behalf of readers as well). My excuse for not taking personal action with my own holdings, and with publicly voicing concern here is that Canadian banks (as a whole) are still less exposed to Euro debt and less leveraged in general versus their U.S./European counterparts. Thus they would be the proverbial last domino to fall, in the event of some widespread banking collapse.

The flip-side to this is: what do you do? My understanding is that attempting to hold actual certificates has now become an impractical if not impossible proposition. And if you move your holdings from a brokerage owned by one of the Big Banks, and then a Big Bank buys-up your new brokerage, are you going to move your holdings again?

At this point I'm not frightened enough about this situation to be willing to go to the expense and inconvenience of playing "musical brokerages" with my holdings. However, I urge investors to be actively this monitoring this situation (as you yourself are doing).

Jimha, I'm very reluctant to put my faith in any assurances or insurance from our own Establishment. Ultimately, the problem is that our governments have ALREADY committed themselves into backing far too many bad debts (including their own). If they have to actually start backstopping the entire system - in the event of systemic failure - then either this will generate hyperinflation (if everyone is bailed-out) OR some will NOT be protected.

Part of the reason for moving at least part of our holdings into bullion is to eliminate counterparty risk: which ultimately simply means allowing someone else to be in physical possession of YOUR wealth. Certainly we can take no counterparty risk for granted in the current sorry (insolvent) state of our economies.
cnjansel@hotmail.com
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written by cnjansel@hotmail.com, June 27, 2012
Jimha,
Thanks for the response. My concern regarding the $1,000,000 coverage is that during a bankruptcy you are only guaranteed the cash equivalent, you are not guaranteed your shares. Everything is pooled together and then divided in cash based on your percentage of that pie. So the dollar value may differentiate greatly from your potential share revaluation value after a collapse. Sorry its seems like i'm a little worst case senario, but I would just like to survive intact. Thoughts... Schnitz
jimha
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written by jimha, June 27, 2012
Schnitzel

You are protected by the CIPF up to $1,000,000. I am with RBC and as you know they were recently downgraded by Moodys. We will all be in the same boat if the system crashes. I doubt anyone would lose their shares but it may take a while to sort all out.

My opinion for what it is worth.

jimha
cnjansel@hotmail.com
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written by cnjansel@hotmail.com, June 27, 2012
Hello Jeff,
Being a Cdn investing 60% in miners(40% phys AG). Whats your opinion in holding them with the large banks i.e. TD Waterhouse? In a currencey reset would this bank not go bankrupt and lose my shares. Do you personally let the investment banks hold your shares in-kind, have them in DRS with the transfer agent or in certificate form? I am aware the CDN banks are a little better off but they are still only paper backing paper as you stated.
Thanks for your insight. Schnitzel
Jeff Nielson
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written by Jeff Nielson, June 26, 2012
Jeff;
As your astute observations have shown over the past couple years, your job as a PM analyst should be really quite easy:
Buy, hold, repeat.
Pay no attention to price.

Watch the psychopaths destroy the financial system.
Protect yourself.
Hope that it's not utter panic and societal breakdown.
When the reset occurs, you will still have tangible purchasing power.

I hope you get lots of television & radio time.
Keep up the good work.


Thanks for your support Bobbbny!

Sometimes I tell myself that NO ONE should be able to make a career out of telling people of the virtues of precious metals...because the facts are so OBVIOUS that everyone should already understand all this for themselves. Lol!
Jeff Nielson
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written by Jeff Nielson, June 26, 2012
I think most on this site would agree that, as well as ignoring minor movements on the metal exchanges; steering clear of the stock exchanges in the main...Please avoid, scratching around for a well paying bank account...
In the secure knowledge that you've "metal" tucked away;
All that is left to do... is to Buy that Mountain Bike...Book that Vacation; Basically- Keep that paper money circulating in the charitable knowledge that you're helping the 99%... and depriving the 1%.


Posthumous, I certainly don't fault any investors who choose to hold ONLY bullion, rather than also including some shares in the miners - especially older investors with a shorter investment horizon.

However, as I noted in the preceding reply, not all paper is created equal, and what is the key here is the latter part of your remark: "depriving the 1%". Just keep all your wealth/capital well AWAY from any financial institution and similar Vampire's Den.
Jeff Nielson
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written by Jeff Nielson, June 26, 2012
...Bottom Line- What is your "opinion" on holding, Bullion to JR Miners ?


Earl that's obviously a very fair question, given the nasty things I've been saying about "paper" in general. However, as with most things in life, all paper is NOT created equal.

We need to differentiate between PURELY paper assets, and paper which is literally backed by hard assets. Thus paper currencies are "pure" paper. Bonds are pure paper. SHARES in banks are still just pure paper (paper backing paper).

Conversely, shares in a gold or silver miner represents shares in HARD ASSETS. Shares in a company which MANUFACTURES something represents hard assets, although perhaps not as secure as holding shares in a gold mine, since a manufacturer represents a FLOW of wealth rather than a STORE of wealth - like a large gold deposit.

Note that when the collapse of the paper world occurs that we might not be able to TRADE (i.e. buy or sell) shares in those miners, since markets would be closed. But even if our paper currencies went to zero, our equity interest in these companies does NOT disappear. We simply have to wait until a new currency system is in place so that markets can re-open and commence normal trading.

And since we could easily have hyperinflation BEFORE a final crash occurs, in a hyperinflation scenarion we can expect the shares of the miners to do EXCEEDINGLY well, as not only would they come close to fully reflecting inflation, but they WILL leverage all price gains in bullion prices (unlike what we have seen in recent years).
bobbbny
...
written by bobbbny, June 26, 2012
Jeff;
As your astute observations have shown over the past couple years, your job as a PM analyst should be really quite easy:
Buy, hold, repeat.
Pay no attention to price.

Watch the psychopaths destroy the financial system.
Protect yourself.
Hope that it's not utter panic and societal breakdown.
When the reset occurs, you will still have tangible purchasing power.

I hope you get lots of television & radio time.
Keep up the good work.
Posthumous
...
written by Posthumous, June 26, 2012
I think most on this site would agree that, as well as ignoring minor movements on the metal exchanges; steering clear of the stock exchanges in the main...Please avoid, scratching around for a well paying bank account...
In the secure knowledge that you've "metal" tucked away;
All that is left to do... is to Buy that Mountain Bike...Book that Vacation; Basically- Keep that paper money circulating in the charitable knowledge that you're helping the 99%... and depriving the 1%.
Earl
...
written by Earl, June 26, 2012
Jeff,

"Long time listener, first time caller".

I've taken the strategy to purchase the JR. Miners, as a means to hold "bullion" and take advantage of "cashing" in at times. Thus, my confusion with a recent "samix" post on cashing on bullion. A take "profit" perspective. Knowing a lot more about East and West, I understand.

Bottom Line- What is your "opinion" on holding, Bullion to JR Miners ?

Thank You
Earl
Jeff Nielson
...
written by Jeff Nielson, June 26, 2012
All of us bulls have a fairly good feel of the end game and, as you comment, it's just a matter of time. The when is impossible to call unless, for example, the end of the USD as the reserve currency can be predicted or someone can claim with certainty when the TBTF banks actually push their favored status too far. We have seen, over the past decade, the contortions of the corrupt and criminal (on a global basis) in kicking the can down the proverbial. Whether it's mark to myth on assets or extend and pretend on solvency. But now it is obvious that the current Euro crisis is fiscally, monetarily, and politically unsolvable, and it will prove to be the tipping domino. Two solid years of lies and obfuscation have reached the end game, which I imagine is just months away. if that. You and others whose opinions I respect, have always counselled patience for holders of physical; it still is the best advice.


Thanks for the support Apberusdisvet1

What amazes me is the disconnect (even with many WITHIN the sector) between what they are "predicting" versus what that prediction ACTUALLY means. Many commentators other than myself have warned about the strong risk of hyperinflation.

Yet if you ask many of these people what their LONG-TERM prediction is for the price of gold they will toss out numbers like $5,000/oz or $10,000. That's little more than what the price should REALLY be today. At best it reflects a high-inflation future, but certainly nothing like hyperinflation.

To repeat, as a matter of arithmetic hyperinflation implies near-INFINITE prices for gold and silver: where we START talking about numbers like $1,000,000/oz for gold; and $100,000/oz for silver. And those numbers don't mean we've "gotten rich" (lol), they just mean that (unlike most) we won't have LOST anything.
apberusdisvet
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written by apberusdisvet, June 25, 2012
Jeff: All of us bulls have a fairly good feel of the end game and, as you comment, it's just a matter of time. The when is impossible to call unless, for example, the end of the USD as the reserve currency can be predicted or someone can claim with certainty when the TBTF banks actually push their favored status too far. We have seen, over the past decade, the contortions of the corrupt and criminal (on a global basis) in kicking the can down the proverbial. Whether it's mark to myth on assets or extend and pretend on solvency. But now it is obvious that the current Euro crisis is fiscally, monetarily, and politically unsolvable, and it will prove to be the tipping domino. Two solid years of lies and obfuscation have reached the end game, which I imagine is just months away. if that. You and others whose opinions I respect, have always counselled patience for holders of physical; it still is the best advice.

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